A Look At Ted Ginn Jr.

[Concord]

OK, Manningham is a better WR than Ginn... lets see how big a homer I think you really are.

Mannigham is Great. Better WR that Ginn at this point No question.

I am NO HOMER.

I call them as I see them.

Ginn is a great player. And should be picked by the Cowboys if there at 22.

 

[smarta5150]

Mannigham is Great. Better WR that Ginn at this point No question.

I am NO HOMER.

I call them as I see them.

Ginn is a great player. And should be picked by the Cowboys if ther at 22.

:laugh2::laugh2:

You said it, yessssss!

 

[Concord]

The overwhelming majority of draft scouts have him ranked as the 4th best receiver in the draft. Many have him ranked even lower. You can debate about whether the injury hurt him, but he showed in his Pro Day that he's very fast, even at 75% health.

Foot injury or not, these are his stats fully healthy.

I don't think so. Prove it.

 

[theogt]

I'm not making an argument for Ginn... I'm just saying in general, that it's very difficult to make too much sense out of stats like these. Finding the stats for the QB's certainly is a good start, but still too many variables for me.

There are plenty of other players that I'd rather have than Ginn and I realize his production isn't what some other's are... so don't take my post to mean that I think we need to draft Ginn (I voted Spencer in your poll). Notice I said "if" he ever does become a complete WR. There are many other's I'd take before Ginn. However, I wouldn't be too upset if we took him either.

I'm not saying these stats are the end of the analysis. But I do believe they are very persuasive. There are a lot of variables that have be taken into account, BUT, regarding statistics, I think this InmanRoshi post sums up my thoughts:

I can't believe anyone believes this statistical crap.

We can use numbers to explain simple, trivial and small stuff like macroeconomics, game theory, subatomic molecular biology or thermodynamics.

But 22 men in colored pajamas running around with an inflated animal epidermis is far too complex and nuanced for numbers to explain anything.

 

[Concord]

:laugh2::laugh2:

You said it, yessssss!

Oh it pained me...But give credit where it's due.

Manningham is a force to be reckoned with.

 

[theogt]

I don't think so. Prove it.

Here's a starting point for you:

http://www.google.com

I'm not sure why you're able to claim he's a Top 10-15 player without proof, but I have to prove a widely known, easily verifiable observation.

 

[Doomsday]

National Title Game -> it's a pity that the idiot tackled him from behind
and took him out of the game, but that happening is probably the only reason we'd even have a shot at him at #22. However, the first time he did touch the ball in that game he ran it back for a touchdown.... IN THE NATIONAL TITLE GAME. It was also very apparent to me that OSU's offense went to **** with Ginn out. Gonzalez is good but by himself without Ginn drawing defenders, he was useless. Troy Smith was pressured quite a bit, but even when he had time, no one could gain any separation.

The reason why OSU's offense was crap in the National game is their offensive line got punked over and over by Florida's front 4. Dallas has to shore up the lines first and the secondary first, they cant afford to waste a 1st round pick on a guy that has bust written all over him.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Because of the differences in QB's, scheme, schedule, etc., I find it difficult to get too caught up in stats like these.

At least for RB's you can take the QB throwing out of the equation... but even then, schedule, OL, etc. come in to play.

I appreciate you doing the work theogt... and I've done plenty of research like this myself (in my spare time)... but it's just too difficult to take every variable into consideration.

Heck, you hinted at it yourself when you said that Johnson's stats don't measure up... and he's by far the best WR in the draft.

Bottom line for me is that I like Ginn's explosiveness and think he can change a game with his speed, but it will take time for him to become an effective everydown WR... if he ever does.

That's about where I am.

I love the guy's potential but I don't view him as someone that would be able to crack the top-4 receivers on this team as far as route running and things like that. At least not in 2007. Most of these super-fast guys don't pan out for one reason or another. I don't see Ginn as being a flop but he could be someone like the Commander's Moss who sorta underwhelms for at least a couple seasons.

 

[Concord]

Here's a starting point for you:

http://www.google.com

I'm not sure why you're able to claim he's a Top 10-15 player without proof, but I have to prove a widely known, easily verifiable observation.

You made the original claim...Prove it.

Prove that he's


The overwhelming majority of draft scouts have him ranked as the 4th best receiver in the draft. Many have him ranked even lower.

 

[theogt]

You made the original claim...Prove it.

Prove that he's


The overwhelming majority of draft scouts have him ranked as the 4th best receiver in the draft. Many have him ranked even lower.

Actually, you made the claim that he was a Top 10-15 pick first.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

The overwhelming majority of draft scouts have him ranked as the 4th best receiver in the draft. Many have him ranked even lower. You can debate about whether the injury hurt him, but he showed in his Pro Day that he's very fast, even at 75% health.

Foot injury or not, these are his stats fully healthy.

In all honesty both Ourlads and Kiper have Ginn as the 2nd best receiver... In both instances he's far back from Calvin Johnson and rated slightly better than the guys behind him like Bowe and Meachem.

 

[AsthmaField]

That's about where I am.

I love the guy's potential but I don't view him as someone that would be able to crack the top-4 receivers on this team as far as route running and things like that. At least not in 2007. Most of these super-fast guys don't pan out for one reason or another. I don't see Ginn as being a flop but he could be someone like the Commander's Moss who sorta underwhelms for at least a couple seasons.

Yep. Like I said... I'd be okay with taking him and he can change field position very fast... but there are many other prospects that I'd rather see us get.

 

[theogt]

In all honesty both Ourlads and Kiper have Ginn as the 2nd best receiver... In both instances he's far back from Calvin Johnson and rated slightly better than the guys behind him like Bowe and Meachem.

This is true. "Overwhelming majority" was a bit strong. Mea culpa. The sites that I frequent most are NFLDraftScout.com and NFLDraftCountdown.com

They're both very good and both have Ginn ranked 4th.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I would love for us to draft Ginn Jr., or Jarrett, or Michael Griffin, just to see the reactions from people who are totally against them in the 1st round

of course anyone could say the same thing if Dallas takes an OG in the 1st round, cuz I absolutely don't want to see that happen, and I would be one mad person if that goes down lol

 

[Gaede]

Interesting analysis...Certainly makes me wary of picking Ginn high.

Even still, I only saw a little college football this year but everytime I did, I saw Ginn making a play. I trust my own eyes over stats, every time. And though you make a pretty good argument, I still like Ginn at 22...

Stats never tell the whole story and my eyes don't either. But when it comes down to it, I'll trust the latter over the former.

 

[AsthmaField]

I would probably put Ginn as the 3rd or 4th best WR in this draft... which is likely where most of the people would have him. I can see where some might have him as the second best... but he's just not polished enough for me to rank 2nd.

Now I could see him being ranked the 2nd best prospect at WR in this draft... considering his upside and his return skills.

IOW, right now I think there are a couple of other guys ahead of him as WR's... but with his potential he might wind up second to only CJ.

 

[Wolfpack]

Ginn shouldnt be there at 22 anyway...and I wouldnt trade up for him. But, I do think he brings alot to the table and would be a safe 1st rd pick. Certainly if he doesnt have the pressure to start, he can learn the WR position from OSU grad Terry and contribute on SP team plays and in the multiple WR packs.

He is silly fast and has a good work ethic so I think a lot of potential is there.

 

[Concord]

This is true. "Overwhelming majority" was a bit strong. Mea culpa. The sites that I frequent most are NFLDraftScout.com and NFLDraftCountdown.com

They're both very good and both have Ginn ranked 4th.

Well it would have been better to tell me your...Mea culpa.

 

[Tristan]

The one thing the stats don't show is how often he was double and triple teamed, creating opportunities for his teamates. This is a form of being productive.

For example, due to the fact that he has shown that he can simply blow by a cb if they play to close, or try to single cover him. Instead of getting torched, defenses would usually have a CB give Ginn a huge cushion as well as rolling their safeties over for deep support. This would open things up for the running game, and guys like Gonzales. This is an example of that speed, explosiveness and talent translating into valuable production. A defense can take anyone out of the game if they choose to, but it is at the expense of leaving others wide open.

A good example is Terrance Newman, is it fair to say that he is not productive because the stats show less interceptions and passes defended due to the fact that QB's would tend to avoid him? I would say it is the highest form of complimient.

This is exactlly the reason I feel Ginn brings the biggest impact to our offense from day one. After he roasts a few CB's on fly patterns, there will be double teams, or else. With Glenn & T.O., somebody is going to get theirs. They will be forced to give Ginn cushion, or roll safety help, this opens up the running game.

As I said before, I really don't care if somebody else likes the same WR as me, but it is hard for me to understand how anybody could fail to see the benefit of having a weapon as dangerous & exciting as Ginn.

Other than C.J. I doubt any other WR earned his stats against as many double & triple teams.

 

[theogt]

The one thing the stats don't show is how often he was double and triple teamed, creating opportunities for his teamates. This is a form of being productive.

For example, due to the fact that he has shown that he can simply blow by a cb if they play to close, or try to single cover him. Instead of getting torched, defenses would usually have a CB give Ginn a huge cushion as well as rolling their safeties over for deep support. This would open things up for the running game, and guys like Gonzales. This is an example of that speed, explosiveness and talent translating into valuable production. A defense can take anyone out of the game if they choose to, but it is at the expense of leaving others wide open.

So your point is that he can be taken out of a game? Why are the other receivers not so easily taken out of a game?

A good example is Terrance Newman, is it fair to say that he is not productive because the stats show less interceptions and passes defended due to the fact that QB's would tend to avoid him? I would say it is the highest form of complimient.

No, that's not really a good example. Newman doesn't get thrown at very much. But his averages are still pretty good. His YPA is up there. When we're talking about averages, it makes this point moot. That's why it's better to look at YPA than just total yardage.