Hostile;1160831 said:
If you want to say Eli has a higher ceiling and more upside, that is your right.
I don't. I think Eli's ceiling may be somewhat lower than Romo's due to Eli's personality. Either way, Eli hasn't played very well so far in his career. I think he has the potential to get better, so he has more upside. I can't imagine Romo performing better than he has, so I think he has little upside.
Hostile;1160831 said:
You are correct. This is upside. Tony Romo has worked hard to overcome whatever stigmas might be attached to not being drafted and playing for a Division II school. That is what I am saying.
It was upside four years ago when Romo was drafted. At this point, I'd guess he's playing pretty close to his potential (i.e., realized his upside), if you just go by what's happened on the field so far.
Eli is still playing below his presumed potential, so he still has some upside left.
Anyway, what you're talking about is akin to implied odds, and it's only germane during the draft. Once the player joins the team, it's irrelevant.
Ever heard of sunk cost?
Hostile;1160831 said:
I disagree with this last part. Expectations are always refined, but lowering them is wrong. They should always be raised. If a player doesn't reach his full potential it should never be because not much was expected of him.
We're not talking about the same thing. I said nothing about expectations. I said "estimates."
Basically, what I am saying is that when a player is drafted, you only have a rough idea (an estimate) of what his potential is. As you watch the player play and develop, it becomes easier to estimate the player's capabilities and to determine if your original estimate of his potential was correct. BP's three year rule is a form of this.
We have a lot more information about Eli now. At this point, if you were estimating his potential, your assessment should be much more accurate than it was on draft day, and it may be very different. IMO, his potential is not what it was thought to be, but still better than average. That has nothing to do with the expectations that the Giants should have for Eli.