Analyzing Bledsoe.

[jterrell]

Analyzing Bledsoe.

A lot of the overall success of this season will ride on Drew Bledsoe being able to perform as at least a solid journeyman QB. As another in the long line of Parcells retreads the question is can he. BP has brought in at least 10 guys now who were with him in previous stops and the results have been mixed. Fanfare for Bledsoe is fare to spare right now based largely on Testaverde’s less than stellar performance last season. Bledsoe is certainly a better player than Vinny; always has been in fact, but that doesn’t make him a Pro Bowl candidate. Let’s take a look at what we can expect.

The first consideration is whether or not Drew Bledsoe is washed up. To that end lets compare his career numbers to last season’s.

Career he has 171 games started. He has a 57% completion percentage, 19.9 TDs per season, 16.25 INT per season, and a QB rating of 76.7. (**Note season averages discount 2 game season ended by injury**)
If you take Bledsoe’s numbers from last season you will see he is basically right at the career averages in all major categories. 20 TD, 16 INT, 56.9 comp percentage, 76.6 QB rating. So its fair to say he hasn’t lost it. At least if he ever had it.

Bledsoe has had 2 very strong seasons of his 11 healthy seasons, 1996 and 2002. Both seasons he played at a Pro Bowl level and for different teams. In neither case and for neither team could he maintain that level of play. I think it would be a bit much to suggest Bledsoe will achieve that type of season here. 4000+ yards, 24 or more TDs, 80 QB rating or more are all at the high end of any possible projections. I’d say looking at Bledsoe minus team considerations 20 TDs, 3500 yards passing, 77 QB rating is fair. Or to compare to Vinny last season if you simply inverted Vinny’s 20 INT 17 TD numbers you’d be just about right. That may sound like a slight improvement but slight improvements win games. A plus 6 in QB/INT plus/minus is significant. But it isn’t world beating. Its legitimate QB play but nothing more than that. Think Jake Delhomme, not Brett Favre(in the good or bad sense; no game breaker either way).

Now placed in a team perspective I’d say you want to make Bledsoe comfortable. To have him at his best you would probably want to offer him a legit deep threat, a safety valve possession WR, a great pass a catching TE, a good OL and a strong running presence. In another words he is not gonna carry a bad offense to being efficient and successful by himself. BUT he is good enough to take advantage if given weapons. His arm is extremely strong. He can cut through sharp winter winds, throw in rain or sleet and has been called weather proof by Bill Parcells. Can he also perform in persistent 100 degree heat? Guess that we’ll find out soon enough.

As to the team considerations you have to like what Parcells has tried to do here. Dallas is deep and talented at RB with Julius Jones, Anthony Thomas and Marion Barber. They have 2 proven standout vet wideouts in Terry Glenn and Keyshawn that complement each other perfectly. Jason Witten may be the games best young TE. The OL has a question mark at RT but there will be 4 very good starters on the OL regardless of any shuffling. All the above is true of course only in case of an injury free season but this team isn’t devoid at depth. The OL has solid OG, OC, OT backup prospects. WR is the one thin position where Quincy Morgan is as inconsistent yet talented as that other Quincy. In the end Bledsoe should be successful because he will have more talent around him on offense since any QB since Aikman’s last Super Bowl season… at least if you consider successful a solid journeyman performance.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

JT,

I think your numbers are fair.

3 points from my perspective...

1. I don't see us going to the air as often with our running game. I'm thinking 3,000 yards is probably more accurate.
2. Drew's 2002 ProBowl season was basically a "half-season" of greatness and a "half-season" of what we've seen the last 2 1/2 years.
3. I agree with the possible premise that Drew never really "had it". He's OK. Nothing great. He's never been a top 5 QB in the NFL. Right now if he hits "Top 20" I think we'll be damn lucky.

 

[Alexander]

I don't see us going to the air as often with our running game. I'm thinking 3,000 yards is probably more accurate..

There is a reason we went three deep at the running back spot.

And it was not because we expected Drew Bledsoe to return to the form he briefly displayed in 2002.

 

[Zaxor]

Jterrell

I believe you need to look at other stats like...drive killing... fumbles/sacks/mental mistakes...

from watching Bledsoe he has these in ample abundance

Let me again say... NO that is N -O - NO team in there right mind gives away a quality QB...

so lets make this simple

If that statement above is true (which I have every reason to believe it is)

than Bledsoe < Quality

plus to just have a competent Bledsoe..you have to have...

well heck you name it

A strong Oline, te, wr, rb, coaching, def, st, and mascot...heck anyone of those go missing and you are flirting with disaster

I have seen a great many reasons to doubt Bledsoe can do anything for this team and very few to believe he can...

now once again is it possible to win games despite the qb - one need not look further than QC's last year here

but if a team has a desire for a SB than they are gonna have to have some better than average play out of the QB every once in a while

and bledsoe has never been know to be clutch

Zaxor

 

[LaTunaNostra]

Nice work, jt.

A theme here has been Drew needs to have a full deck to deal, and he didn't have that in Buffalo (pass protection, te), or in NE in his latter years there. But that Tuna is hell bent on creating the same style bus for the same style O with the same style results as in 96.

On paper it looks like Bledsoe will have as close to the support cast he had in NE in 96 (altho no Bruce Armstrong level tackle on either end). JJ for Martin, Witten for Coates, A slower T for a more route savvy T, and Johnson's possession skills for Shawn/Sean Shaun? Jefferson's complementary receiver skills. There is one notable lack tho, in addition to a perrenial Pro Bowl tackle...a fullback the quality of Sam Gash in his prime. Best blocking fb I ever saw. But, this lineup has a fine blocking TE in Campbell, so it may even out.

I tend to think along this "give Bledsoe the same horses" line a lot, but at the same time realize it's wishful thinking. There is no possibility Tuna can be successful with Drew in the same way he was in 96. Too many DCs have exposed him, and it will take more than a couple of sprint outs to mask that.

Too many OCs have failed to break him of the holding-the-ball-too-long habit. Eight seasons of bad habits have transpired since Bill had success with him. We know know you cannot feature "timing" passes as Zampese regretfully tried, nor as horizontal a game as McBride tried to install in Buffalo..the repertoire is limited when field vision and fast decision making is the issue. We saw it with Q, but we have not seen it with a vet QB as experienced as Bledsoe. I for one was not surprised in the least to hear Mike Mayock on Playbook say Tuna will have Drew "read half the field".

I think the creativity of Payton is going to make or break this passing game. As much or more than the running of JJ and Co.. play action has to be the core.

When you have a QB every DC has "made" for so long (geez, Greg Williams?) it takes innovation as well as execution to pull it off. When DCs scheme our O, looking for the weak areas for advantageous match-ups , it's going to be the guy behind center, not the TE, not the wideouts, not the runner they will be scheming. You beat a Bledsoe team by beating Bledsoe. His arm is greatly diminished by the time it takes him to figure out what to do, much more so than Testaverde's now zipless arm. And unlike Carter, Drew just can't take off....

We've seen QB limitations, and they all have them..how well the bus's (particularly the oline's) can compensate for Drew's will tell the story.

We shall see.

 

[Alexander]

I for one was not surprised in the least to hear Mike Mayock on Playbook say Tuna will have Drew "read half the field".

Isn't that the same thing Coach Parcells supposedly did with Quincy Carter?

Interesting.

 

[ravidubey]

We went three deep at RB to insure our running game given Julius' injury history, our over-reliance on him, and his inability to catch the football last season.

But in today's NFL you can't be a run-first-pass-to-keep-them-honest kind of team. You must be able to both pass and run and lead with either. Until the Cowboys get serious about their WR's (or if by some miracle Key, Glenn, and Quincy all stay healthy and play well) they will have to over-rely on play calling and perfect execution. That's a very hard road to take.

 

[LaTunaNostra]

Isn't that the same thing Coach Parcells supposedly did with Quincy Carter?

Interesting.

It is indeed.

Before this disintegrates into a Q thread, I will say it is a typical strategy for young QBs..a developmental approach. A lot more promising QBs than Q had his OC develop him in this way.

But it is surprising to hear it predicted for a QB with Drew's experience.

 

[Zaxor]

Nice work, jt.

Too many DCs have exposed him, and it will take more than a couple of sprint outs to mask that.



I think the creativity of Payton is going to make or break this passing game. As much or more than the running of JJ and Co.. play action has to be the core.

When you have a QB every DC has "made" for so long (geez, Greg Williams?) it takes innovation as well as execution to pull it off. When DCs scheme our O, looking for the weak areas for advantageous match-ups , it's going to be the guy behind center,

. And unlike Carter, Drew just can't take off....

.

I really hope people look at these few lines I pulled out... LTN will look like a fortune-teller by the end of the season

 

[LaTunaNostra]

I really hope people look at these few lines I pulled out... LTN will look like a fortune-teller by the end of the season

Or Yogi Berra expecting "deja vu all over again"

 

[Alexander]

It is indeed.

Before this disintegrates into a Q thread, I will say it is a typical strategy for young QBs..a developmental approach. A lot more promising QBs than Q had his OC develop him in this way.

But it is surprising to hear it predicted for a QB with Drew's experience.

That is what is so interesting.

And in a way, comforting.

Putting a choke collar on Bledsoe and running the same style of ground and pound offense we ran in 2003 minus Troy Hambrick and plus Julius Jones, Marion Barber III and Anthony Thomas sounds much better than anything close to having Drew Testeverde drop back and pass 50 times a contest.

 

[TNCowboy]

If you take Bledsoe’s numbers from last season you will see he is basically right at the career averages in all major categories. 20 TD, 16 INT, 56.9 comp percentage, 76.6 QB rating. So its fair to say he hasn’t lost it. At least if he ever had it.

You said a mouthful. If he ever had it....

I’d say looking at Bledsoe minus team considerations 20 TDs, 3500 yards passing, 77 QB rating is fair. Or to compare to Vinny last season if you simply inverted Vinny’s 20 INT 17 TD numbers you’d be just about right. That may sound like a slight improvement but slight improvements win games. A plus 6 in QB/INT plus/minus is significant. But it isn’t world beating. Its legitimate QB play but nothing more than that. Think Jake Delhomme, not Brett Favre(in the good or bad sense; no game breaker either way).

It's sad that we're hoping it's realistic that our QB can post what would have been the NFL's 24th worst QB rating. We should be so fortunate to have a QB with Delhomme's #s from last year. His #s would have been near Cowboy records, and he did that without much talent backing him up other than Mohammed.

 

[LaTunaNostra]

That is what is so interesting.

And in a way, comforting.

Putting a choke collar on Bledsoe and running the same style of ground and pound offense we ran in 2003 minus Troy Hambrick and plus Julius Jones, Marion Barber III and Anthony Thomas sounds much better than anything close to having Drew Testeverde drop back and pass 50 times a contest.

That was the epitome of the mediocre O in '03...low talent at the skills positions of RB and QB, a virtually crippled RT, a poorly conditioned LG, a disinterested wideout in Galloway, a misused one in Glenn, and a promising but raw te. Only the statistically best D in the league prevented that motley crew from looking as bad as it was..how many offensive shut-outs, how mnay points put up vs Buffalo?

It will be way superior this year, and Bledsoe can get the level of protection he needs, way more prolific an O.

"Putting the choke collar" on Drew is something probably ONLY Tuna can do. Others have tried..but he just kept on chuckin'.

I don't think for a minute tho, that Bledsoe will dare defy Parcells. Not just the respect/fear issue, but he knows career wise, it would spell strike three.

He's gonna want to throw 50 times a contest tho. 48 of them long.

 

[Alexander]

That was the epitome of the mediocre O in '03...low talent at the skills positions of RB and QB, a virtually crippled RT, a poorly conditioned LG, a disinterested wideout in Galloway, a misused one in Glenn, and a promising but raw te. Only the statistically best D in the league prevented that motley crew from looking as bad as it was..how many offensive shut-outs, how mnay points put up vs Buffalo?

It was bad, but we have vastly improved the run game. Adding Rivera only helps that, let alone the incredible depth. We cannot help but do better in that regard.

The only problem is that if our opponents stack the run, will Bledsoe and our wideouts make them pay? If Glenn returns full strength, I think we most certainly can. He was a big loss last year. It just depends on Bledsoe playing disciplined football. That is where my doubt about this offense lies. With him and our pass protection, specifically at right tackle.

I don't think for a minute tho, that Bledsoe will dare defy Parcells. Not just the respect/fear issue, but he knows career wise, it would spell strike three.

He's gonna want to throw 50 time a contest tho. 48 of them long.

I have read that this was one of the primary reasons that he was dumped from Buffalo and that is he would often defy some of the plays that were called and even if not, display frustration at the direction of the offense and the overall philosophy.

Once his role was reduced (after Oakland literally destroyed him with blitzes) and Mcgahee's increased, it worked. But supposedly he did not like it even though the wins were coming.

That might be where some of the "Parcells will keep him under control" talk came from.

 

[LaTunaNostra]

It was bad, but we have vastly improved the run game. Adding Rivera only helps that, let alone the incredible depth. We cannot help but do better in that regard.

Yes the depth is much improved..so why am I still hankering for a vet swing tackle?

The only problem is that if our opponents stack the run, will Bledsoe and our wideouts make them pay? If Glenn returns full strength, I think we most certainly can. He was a big loss last year. It just depends on Bledsoe playing disciplined football. That is where my doubt about this offense lies. With him and our pass protection, specifically at right tackle.

It will be great to see Ds respecting our run game so much they play eight in the box...I think we have the receivers to get the job done (and I'd like to see Crayton on the field as much as possible). But we have one accomplished speedster (Morgan....something seems lacking there...delvepmentally you'd think he'd be much further along, can't put everything on Butch Davis) and that's Terry. I found it miraculous he managed to play 16 games in 03, and suffered nothing more serious than bursitis on his knee and a broken finger. Anyone who's paranoid about his health or 'fragility' is justified, imo. I know I am. How far Haley can take the kids this summer, route running and reading D wise, mechanics...well the good news I guess is no one is wasting any more time on Randal Williams.

I have read that this was one of the primary reasons that he was dumped from Buffalo and that is he would often defy some of the plays that were called and even if not, display frustration at the direction of the offense and the overall philosophy.
Once his role was reduced (after Oakland literally destroyed him with blitzes) and Mcgahee's increased, it worked. But supposedly he did not like it even though the wins were coming.

That might be where some of the "Parcells will keep him under control" talk came from.

Winicki's written some highly entertaining posts on that, including the eureka! response of Bledsoe when he reinvented the dump-off wheel - I mean the same wheel his OCs had been trying to tie him to for two and a half years. The man doesn't have a rep for being highly coachable. In fact, the opposite. But again, it's last chance time, and Drew may be just one more of that ilk of "Parcells Guys" who needs Big Bill's very firm direction.

 

[Alexander]

Yes the depth is much improved..so why am I still hankering for a vet swing tackle?

We have a good one in Vollers, right?

The man doesn't have a rep for being highly coachable. In fact, the opposite. But again, it's last chance time, and Drew may be just one more of that ilk of "Parcells Guys" who needs Big Bill's very firm direction.

Direction or swift kick in the posterior?

 

[followthestar]

bill will have him conditioned by the start of the season to get rid of the ball sooner, i have no doubt. we're only using three QBs so everyone will get plenty of reps in camp. bledsoe will get the ball off or maybe get his reps diminished (?) and see what he thinks of that...
parcells will coach him up, and i think we'll see a QB firmly in control of the offense here - something we haven't seen since Aikman.

 

[ravidubey]

a disinterested wideout in Galloway, a misused one in Glenn,

If anyone was misused or under-used it was Galloway. The only game Glenn played without Galloway vs. New England he was shut out. That's inexcusable. Galloway was so disinterested he was the only one on the entire offense who remembered to step it up in the playoffs.

Basically Quincy Carter was one sad and overwhelmed QB.

 

[blindzebra]

It is indeed.

Before this disintegrates into a Q thread, I will say it is a typical strategy for young QBs..a developmental approach. A lot more promising QBs than Q had his OC develop him in this way.

But it is surprising to hear it predicted for a QB with Drew's experience.

If you need all the pieces in place and a limited playbook to make it work...the recipe for an inexperienced QB...for Bledsoe, shouldn't we be playing the young guy?

We already will need 4 rookies, plus several more guys with limited experience, on defense, so why not?

We seem to be riding the fence of best chance to win/build for the future and it might bite us in the arse.

The best thing that could happen to this team is if one of the young guys explodes this preseason and beats out Bledsoe.

 

[jobberone]

If you need all the pieces in place and a limited playbook to make it work...the recipe for an inexperienced QB...for Bledsoe, shouldn't we be playing the young guy?

We already will need 4 rookies, plus several more guys with limited experience, on defense, so why not?

We seem to be riding the fence of best chance to win/build for the future and it might bite us in the arse.

The best thing that could happen to this team is if one of the young guys explodes this preseason and beats out Bledsoe.

I don't have a problem with that if Bledsoe doesn't play much better than Romo or Henson. I think he will make better reads and produce a better offensive attack than the younger guys and we will have a decent or better O this year.