Are The Cowboys Super Bowl Contenders?

[firehawk350]

Let's play "Can Stats Lie, Or Do They Tell the Whole Story?"

The year is 1995.

QB A's stats.

583 pass attempts
346 completions
4338 yards
32 TDs
4 TDs rushing



QB B's stats

432 pass attempts
280 completions
3304 yards
16 Tds
1 TD rushing



First let's go to Firehawk350. Which QB do you take?

:blind: "Uh, I'll take QB A obviously. Look at those stats. Wouldn't you rather have a QB who throws for twice as many TDs as the other guy? That's the difference we are talking about."




Now to the rest of the football universe. Which QB do you take?

:holmes: "There are three types of fallacies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. In this case the statistics don't begin to tell the whole story. Therefore the correct answer is QB B."




QB A is Scott Mitchell of the Detroit Lions.

QB B is Troy Aikman of the World Champion Dallas Cowboys.

Thank you for playing.

Okay, so you bring up some DVOA ranking based completely on statistics? And then turn around and tell me that statistics are stupid. Okay, I'll bite, explain, without statistics and using something resembling a verifiable fact (anybody would take Witten over Cooley is not a verifiable fact) why Witten is better.

 

[Hostile]

yes,your team are pretenders...they have been since 96,they havent won a playoff game since then...WOW!!!!

 

[Hostile]

Okay, so you bring up some DVOA ranking based completely on statistics? And then turn around and tell me that statistics are stupid. Okay, I'll bite, explain, without statistics and using something resembling a verifiable fact (anybody would take Witten over Cooley is not a verifiable fact) why Witten is better.

I once again refer you to post #30 of this thread.

 

[firehawk350]

Then where are you taking that into account in your statistical evaluation??

As you say Cooley, the "more prolific player on a bad team," had less yards and 5 more TDs than a "less prolific player on a good team," but he's better??

It's not harder to be "more prolific" on a bad team. It's easier because you have fewer guys fighting for TDs. Witten had to fight for TDs with TO and Barber (in the teens), JJ and Glenn (each over 5). So would it be harder to score TDs if you were the 5th option, or the 3rd?

What I'm taking into account is what the player did, not what everyone did around him. "Witten had more yards", that's your point, isn't it? But we're talking 50 yards here. Not some massive advantage. That's tiny. But Cooley's 5 TDs IS a massive advantage. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to get.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

If I understand this completely useless analogy, Witten built 12 homes after 12 days. Whereas Cooley just roofed them (ie finished them off)? This example is predicated on the premise that Cooley had no ability to get yards and just took credit for the final TD side of things. And Witten started from scratch. Which makes this a ******** post. Cooley had a total of 50 less yards. 50! We're talking about a total of 4-5 passes over a season. That's barely a statisical advantage (less then 10%). But Cooley has 6 times the TDs. That's 600% of Witten's. So again, your simplifying things to who had more and that counts towards owning one category. Your not considering that Cooley was edged out by a mere fraction in yards but completely demolished Witten in TDs.

You obviously cant walk and chew gum at the same time. I am still on the Running back post you made back when...

 

[peplaw06]

What I'm taking into account is what the player did, not what everyone did around him. "Witten had more yards", that's your point, isn't it? But we're talking 50 yards here. Not some massive advantage. That's tiny. But Cooley's 5 TDs IS a massive advantage. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to get.

It's not a massive advantage. It's a product of a guy being a 3rd option as opposed to a 5th option. Simple reasoning leads one to the conclusion that the 3rd option is probably going to have more TDs.

 

[firehawk350]

I once again refer you to post #30 of this thread.

Ah ha, I respond to the fallacy of your argument and opposed to trying to explain WHY you used one at a different point then the other you return to personal insults. I wish I had your debating skills.

 

[firehawk350]

It's not a massive advantage. It's a product of a guy being a 3rd option as opposed to a 5th option. Simple reasoning leads one to the conclusion that the 3rd option is probably going to have more TDs.

But at the same hand, being the third option makes it much harder to gain yards as teams are more likely to focus a defense on you. We could go around this tree all day long. And being the third option, I think it's safe to say it would be harder to gain yards, yet Cooley did it very nearly as well as Witten.

 

[firehawk350]

You obviously cant walk and chew gum at the same time. I am still on the Running back post you made back when...

My point still stands then. It's a ******** analogy. We're assuming the 1200 yard back had to do everything himself (he being Witten), and the 1000 yard back only had to punch it in. The 1000 yard back had to do it all, he had to run down the field and then punch it in. Which is what Cooley did.

The argument here seems to be, and let me know if I got something wrong, Witten is a threat to run it down but just not quite the redzone target and Cooley is a redzone target but just doesn't have it in the open field? Is that what your arguing?

 

[Hostile]

Ah ha, I respond to the fallacy of your argument and opposed to trying to explain WHY you used one at a different point then the other you return to personal insults. I wish I had your debating skills.

It isn't an insult.

You're telling me right now, that if you were a Coach and had these 2 guys on your team that Witten would be the bench warmer?

I'm telling you that outside of Commanders nation no one will agree with you. Draw your own conclusions I suppose.

I will say this, your conclusion is stat driven and bias tainted. I am talking purely about talent, how each player is used, and potential. Even if I weren't a Cowboys fan I would take Witten every day of the week and twice on game days. I repeat one more time, I like Cooley and hate Shockey so it isn't a personal taste thing with me.

 

[peplaw06]

But at the same hand, being the third option makes it much harder to gain yards as teams are more likely to focus a defense on you. We could go around this tree all day long. And being the third option, I think it's safe to say it would be harder to gain yards, yet Cooley did it very nearly as well as Witten.

See this is where you're wrong. Nobody schemes to take a 3rd option completely out of a game... just as no one schemes to take a 5th option out. They scheme to take out the main option, and maybe a second. Then they dare you to beat them with your 3rd-5th options.

I still don't see how it's "harder" to gain yards or TDs as a 3rd option as opposed to a 5th.

 

[firehawk350]

It isn't an insult.

You're telling me right now, that if you were a Coach and had these 2 guys on your team that Witten would be the bench warmer?

I'm telling you that outside of Commanders nation no one will agree with you. Draw your own conclusions I suppose.

I will say this, your conclusion is stat driven and bias tainted. I am talking purely about talent, how each player is used, and potential. Even if I weren't a Cowboys fan I would take Witten every day of the week and twice on game days. I repeat one more time, I like Cooley and hate Shockey so it isn't a personal taste thing with me.

But there's no way you like Cooley as much as Witten, so every opinion is biased. If I had Witten and Cooley on the same team, I honestly don't know what I'd do. I mean, your talking about a team in which all I know is those two players. Most likely, I'd switch to a two TE set because they are BOTH playmakers, but if I HAD to choose, I'd choose Cooley. As far as outside of Commanders' nation, who knows. Everyone has an opinion on the Cowboys so depending on that will be depending on their choice. I don't believe that not based on statistics, we could find a completely unbiased person to evaluate the two who would still know enough of what they were talking about.
I don't want to give the impression that I hate Witten, because I think he's a good player. I just think he hasn't been what hype is made him out to be.

 

[firehawk350]

See this is where you're wrong. Nobody schemes to take a 3rd option completely out of a game... just as no one schemes to take a 5th option out. They scheme to take out the main option, and maybe a second. Then they dare you to beat them with your 3rd-5th options.

I still don't see how it's "harder" to gain yards or TDs as a 3rd option as opposed to a 5th.

So your saying that no one accounts for Cooley, just like no one accounts for Witten? Right...

 

[superpunk]

See this is where you're wrong. Nobody schemes to take a 3rd option completely out of a game... just as no one schemes to take a 5th option out. They scheme to take out the main option, and maybe a second. Then they dare you to beat them with your 3rd-5th options.

I still don't see how it's "harder" to gain yards or TDs as a 3rd option as opposed to a 5th.

So your saying that no one accounts for Cooley, just like no one accounts for Witten? Right...

peplaw...in thirty words or less....

how does it feel to use logic, complete sentences, and then receive a nonsense retort?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te.php

 

[firehawk350]

peplaw...in thirty words or less....

how does it feel to use logic, complete sentences, and then receive a nonsense retort?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te.php

Thanks for bringing up the outsiders again (which I will reiterate is slanted towards high-scoring teams), and when do I not use complete sentences? And since when did his stupid statement assuming he knew what coaches were thinking and planning for can hardly be called logic. More like personal opinion.

 

[superpunk]

Thanks for bringing up the outsiders again (which I will reiterate is slanted towards high-scoring teams),

Thank you for reiterating.

However, all the reiteration in the world won't make you any less wrong.

Cooley < Witten. Every single year they've been in the league, Witten grades out better. Better hands, he's more of a deep threat, he flat out gets it done. He's not a bubble screen YAC H-back. He's a far more valuable asset.

 

[firehawk350]

See this is where you're wrong. Nobody schemes to take a 3rd option completely out of a game... just as no one schemes to take a 5th option out. They scheme to take out the main option, and maybe a second. Then they dare you to beat them with your 3rd-5th options.

I still don't see how it's "harder" to gain yards or TDs as a 3rd option as opposed to a 5th.

Okay, for a little further clarification since I wasn't clear enough to begin with. Nobody schemes to take a 3rd option out completely, but they account more for the third option then as they do the 5th. So therefore, it would be harder to gain yards because you should expect MORE attention (not all of the attention, but more) if you are the 3rd then if you are the 5th.

 

[Hostile]

But there's no way you like Cooley as much as Witten, so every opinion is biased.

Nice try, but I already qualified it by saying even if I weren't a Cowboys fan or he wasn't a Cowboy. If he were a Commanders player and Cooley a Cowboy I wouldn't change my opinion.

If I had Witten and Cooley on the same team, I honestly don't know what I'd do. I mean, your talking about a team in which all I know is those two players. Most likely, I'd switch to a two TE set because they are BOTH playmakers, but if I HAD to choose, I'd choose Cooley.

I believe you.

As far as outside of Commanders' nation, who knows. Everyone has an opinion on the Cowboys so depending on that will be depending on their choice. I don't believe that not based on statistics, we could find a completely unbiased person to evaluate the two who would still know enough of what they were talking about.

And I disagree. I believe most sources would tell you what you obviously don't want to hear.

I don't want to give the impression that I hate Witten, because I think he's a good player.

No, that isn't the impression I got. Mine was this...

:blind:

I just think he hasn't been what hype is made him out to be.

What hype is that? The hype here? Outside of Cowboys nation who hypes him up? Oh right, NFL types.

That isn't hype son. It's the school bell ringing. Join the class.

 

[Stash]

What I'm taking into account is what the player did, not what everyone did around him. "Witten had more yards", that's your point, isn't it? But we're talking 50 yards here. Not some massive advantage. That's tiny. But Cooley's 5 TDs IS a massive advantage. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to get.

Fine.

Marion Barber >>>> Portis & Betts

Happy?

 

[firehawk350]

Thank you for reiterating.

However, all the reiteration in the world won't make you any less wrong.

Cooley < Witten. Every single year they've been in the league, Witten grades out better. Better hands, he's more of a deep threat, he flat out gets it done. He's not a bubble screen YAC H-back. He's a far more valuable asset.

Wow, argument over! Thanks for that. Witten grades out better on some DVOA ranking that is only used by that particular site. No major analyst says, well I like player X, but his DVOA is just too low to be a factor. Or when has a coach said, we were going to pick up player X, but player Y's DVOA is just hard to pass up? The web is full of people who pretend to have an inside slant but don't. Somebody just thought of a system they thought was fair. Doesn't make it the end-all, be-all of systems.
Better hands, maybe, I've seen Cooley make some pretty hard catches. More of a deep threat? That's why Cooley has a 66 yard longest catch where as Witten's is 44. Hm... Furthermore, Cooley has more 20 yard catches AND 40 yard catches.
He flat out gets it done huh? Well except the TD part... And if you took out Cooley from the Commanders, would that have a more profound effect then if you took out Witten?