Big 12 Expansion

[RustyBourneHorse]

Notre Dame Football cannot join any conference except the ACC until 2037.

Well, ACC it is.

 

[CouchCoach]

Looks like the formal invitations are going out tomorrow with Boise State and Memphis simmering on the back burner to replace OU and UT.

The sooner they can get this completed, in place and move forward, the better for all of the fans in Big 12 markets now. Get the sting over and start with the new teams that they've not seen before in their stadiums and turn this into a positive, it's not about who left the party but who is arriving.

The most interesting part of this to me is the net effect on recruiting for OU and UT, will they be able to bag more 4 and 5 star D players?

 

[Diehardblues]

Cincinnati submitted their application to Big 12 yesterday with BYU, Central Florida and Houston upcoming.

Boise State and Memphis have not been mentioned as applying this year. Only after thoughts in coming years. They would certainly be welcomed additions.

But the 4 already set to apply will secure the conferences power 5 status.

 

[CouchCoach]

Cincinnati submitted their application to Big 12 yesterday with BYU, Central Florida and Houston upcoming.

Boise State and Memphis have not been mentioned as applying this year. Only after thoughts in coming years. They would certainly be welcomed additions.

But the 4 already set to apply will secure the conferences power 5 status.

I think they're waiting to see what's going to happen with OU and UT and when they're really going to start SEC play before extending invitations to BSU and Memphis.

OU and UT have got to be chomping at the bit to tell recruit targets they will be playing in the SEC next season.

I think it is in the best interest of the Big 12 to move them on and not let this expand into the courts. Set the buyout, take the cash and begin to market the new Big 12. There is really nothing to be gained, everyone already knows what UT is all about and I hope they get filleted in the SEC.

 

[Diehardblues]

I think they're waiting to see what's going to happen with OU and UT and when they're really going to start SEC play before extending invitations to BSU and Memphis.

OU and UT have got to be chomping at the bit to tell recruit targets they will be playing in the SEC next season.

I think it is in the best interest of the Big 12 to move them on and not let this expand into the courts. Set the buyout, take the cash and begin to market the new Big 12. There is really nothing to be gained, everyone already knows what UT is all about and I hope they get filleted in the SEC.

It’s probably more revolving around the SEC new mega TV deal with ESPN , ABC and SECN which doesn’t begin until 2024 which is what fueled OU ill will with Big 12 deal. And when they begin plotting to bolt.

Their best or easiest opportunity to bolt next year was if the Big 12 collapsed or splintered off which isn’t going to happen now. And it appears the 4 new members aren’t expected to begin playing until at least 2023.

Im not making any predictions . Just reacting to what we currently know . And based on these recent additions and survival of Big 12 I think it makes it more uncertain the departing schools will leave after this year with conference staying in tact.

I do think TX and OU want to be there by the time new Mega TV deal begins in 2024.

But there hasn’t been anything substantial coming out of Boise or Memphis to speculate anymore on their status. At the moment we are thrilled these 4 schools are coming preserving the conference.

 

[jterrell]

Well, ACC it is.

ND likely doesn't join any conference unless the CFP forces it but given it's almost certainly going to be 8 or 12 and the ACC has already shared it's assignments w ND they have zero reason to join.
They have a far better TV deal than the ACC.

 

[jterrell]

I think they're waiting to see what's going to happen with OU and UT and when they're really going to start SEC play before extending invitations to BSU and Memphis.

OU and UT have got to be chomping at the bit to tell recruit targets they will be playing in the SEC next season.

I think it is in the best interest of the Big 12 to move them on and not let this expand into the courts. Set the buyout, take the cash and begin to market the new Big 12. There is really nothing to be gained, everyone already knows what UT is all about and I hope they get filleted in the SEC.

Exactly opposite.
It is incumbent on UT/OU to give notice and pay the already set buy out fees then negotiate from there.
I have been explaining this the entire thread and you won't listen lol.
They BOTH announced they would remain in the Big 12 until 2024/25 when the grant of rights runs out.
The SEC announced their invitation for 2024/25 season when the grant of rights runs out.

If they want to leave; and yes of course they do, they have to cough up real money.
And neither school wants to foot that bill but OU definitely does not.
So ESPN steps up with massive money to make this happen sooner rather than later or this drags on.
80M gets them out of the conference but not with home games TV rights.
They will need to by out those games as well. And those games are worth 2-3M EACH.
So, realistically to leave next year they'd need to pay out about 120M each.
More likely scenario is leave in 2023 for about half that cost. 60M each.
Big 12 obviously prefers cash to no cash but they also have zero reason to do UT/OU any favors financially.
OUT schemed behind their back to make a financial deal that cut them off at the knees and now the Big 12 will be wide open with making the best financial deal they can off the backs of OUT.
This has never been complicated.
OUT lost all power in the negotiation when the B12 expanded.

ZERO idea why the SEC didn't just suck it up and add OKST and Texas Tech to kill off the league entirely.
Those were the next two most valuable schools based on market modeling.

I am sure the heat will be on OUT all season as they face mad B12 opponents and hostile crowds.
Like a dude who dumps his wife and the mother of his kids for a hot young chick, reality is about to become stark in the price paid to do so.

 

[Diehardblues]

Exactly opposite.
It is incumbent on UT/OU to give notice and pay the already set buy out fees then negotiate from there.
I have been explaining this the entire thread and you won't listen lol.
They BOTH announced they would remain in the Big 12 until 2024/25 when the grant of rights runs out.
The SEC announced their invitation for 2024/25 season when the grant of rights runs out.

If they want to leave; and yes of course they do, they have to cough up real money.
And neither school wants to foot that bill but OU definitely does not.
So ESPN steps up with massive money to make this happen sooner rather than later or this drags on.
80M gets them out of the conference but not with home games TV rights.
They will need to by out those games as well. And those games are worth 2-3M EACH.
So, realistically to leave next year they'd need to pay out about 120M each.
More likely scenario is leave in 2023 for about half that cost. 60M each.
Big 12 obviously prefers cash to no cash but they also have zero reason to do UT/OU any favors financially.
OUT schemed behind their back to make a financial deal that cut them off at the knees and now the Big 12 will be wide open with making the best financial deal they can off the backs of OUT.
This has never been complicated.
OUT lost all power in the negotiation when the B12 expanded.

ZERO idea why the SEC didn't just suck it up and add OKST and Texas Tech to kill off the league entirely.
Those were the next two most valuable schools based on market modeling.

I am sure the heat will be on OUT all season as they face mad B12 opponents and hostile crowds.
Like a dude who dumps his wife and the mother of his kids for a hot young chick, reality is about to become stark in the price paid to do so.

Yea, if SEC had plucked Tech and OK St in addition it would have been much more difficult to recover.

Im really proud how the Big 12 reacted so quickly maintaining their Power 5 status. They should have expanded years ago.

 

[jterrell]

Yea, if SEC had plucked Tech and OK St in addition it would have been much more difficult to recover.

Im really proud how the Big 12 reacted so quickly maintaining their Power 5 status. They should have expanded years ago.

Moreso than that the league by-laws state they must have 8 teams to exist.
If they took it down to 6 teams you couldn't have the votes to expand because you need 8 of 10. It would have killed it off as is.
Zero buy outs.

But this have your cake and eat it to play by ESPN/SEC/OUT which was executed so quietly and with such precision left enormous room for the Big 12 to fight back and do serious damage.
And yes, I am very proud of how quickly they moved.
Then again, it's not really shocking.
UT and OU were the teams most against expansion. They saw each added team siphoning off their money.
But the Big 12 needed to look beyond finances and get to a stable conference with solid divisions again for the sheer rankings benefits.
More teams with fewer losses because they play each other less often.
12-14 teams is the current P5 model and 4 major conf w 16 teams was the suggested long-term goal as far back as 5 years ago.

 

[CouchCoach]

Exactly opposite.
It is incumbent on UT/OU to give notice and pay the already set buy out fees then negotiate from there.
I have been explaining this the entire thread and you won't listen lol.
They BOTH announced they would remain in the Big 12 until 2024/25 when the grant of rights runs out.
The SEC announced their invitation for 2024/25 season when the grant of rights runs out.

If they want to leave; and yes of course they do, they have to cough up real money.
And neither school wants to foot that bill but OU definitely does not.
So ESPN steps up with massive money to make this happen sooner rather than later or this drags on.
80M gets them out of the conference but not with home games TV rights.
They will need to by out those games as well. And those games are worth 2-3M EACH.
So, realistically to leave next year they'd need to pay out about 120M each.
More likely scenario is leave in 2023 for about half that cost. 60M each.
Big 12 obviously prefers cash to no cash but they also have zero reason to do UT/OU any favors financially.
OUT schemed behind their back to make a financial deal that cut them off at the knees and now the Big 12 will be wide open with making the best financial deal they can off the backs of OUT.
This has never been complicated.
OUT lost all power in the negotiation when the B12 expanded.

ZERO idea why the SEC didn't just suck it up and add OKST and Texas Tech to kill off the league entirely.
Those were the next two most valuable schools based on market modeling.

I am sure the heat will be on OUT all season as they face mad B12 opponents and hostile crowds.
Like a dude who dumps his wife and the mother of his kids for a hot young chick, reality is about to become stark in the price paid to do so.

The money that is behind this isn't OU or UT, it is ESPN and ABC and one group of UT supporters. If they didn't already have a plan to get both schools into play by 2022 and make this their exit season, this would not have gone down as quickly as it has and what you are talking about are the apparent steps, not the ones taking place behind the curtain.

The other issue, and being handled behind the scenes at both schools, is the immediate effect they need to feel for their athletes because UT is more than aware of how Arkansas was treated in their swan song season because they were the biggest perps. Think they weren't watching College Game Day last Saturday from Ames and the reaction every time UT was mentioned?

What is the recruiting advantage for 2022 if they continue this dead dance in the Big 12? Why in the hell would any 4 or 5 star want to go through that when they have other options? They wouldn't and both schools know that.

This isn't about money to UT, they could easily fork over 120M to walk because it's all about pride of the benefactors to UT like Red McCombs and his cronies, he was behind that 10M X 10 years for Saban. It is not the money at UT; it is the money behind UT and they will make this happen.

Your analogy of the guy dumping his wife is a good one. Now, does he get the hell out quickly or hang around for the grief?

The exit plan was part of the plan or they don't announce it when they did. Like the Eagles sang "they're already gone".

 

[jterrell]

The money that is behind this isn't OU or UT, it is ESPN and ABC and one group of UT supporters. If they didn't already have a plan to get both schools into play by 2022 and make this their exit season, this would not have gone down as quickly as it has and what you are talking about are the apparent steps, not the ones taking place behind the curtain.

The other issue, and being handled behind the scenes at both schools, is the immediate effect they need to feel for their athletes because UT is more than aware of how Arkansas was treated in their swan song season because they were the biggest perps. Think they weren't watching College Game Day last Saturday from Ames and the reaction every time UT was mentioned?

What is the recruiting advantage for 2022 if they continue this dead dance in the Big 12? Why in the hell would any 4 or 5 star want to go through that when they have other options? They wouldn't and both schools know that.

This isn't about money to UT, they could easily fork over 120M to walk because it's all about pride of the benefactors to UT like Red McCombs and his cronies, he was behind that 10M X 10 years for Saban. It is not the money at UT; it is the money behind UT and they will make this happen.

Your analogy of the guy dumping his wife is a good one. Now, does he get the hell out quickly or hang around for the grief?

The exit plan was part of the plan or they don't announce it when they did. Like the Eagles sang "they're already gone".

It isn't anywhere near that easy.
Far too much of the commentary is coming from orangebloods or whatever and is not close to reality.
If it was they would have already announced their departure date versus stating they would be leaving after the 2023/24 season.
They didn't expertly operate to all of a sudden hit a brick wall if in fact they already had the steps needed to leave now.

ESPN's deal with the SEC starts in the 2024/25 season. And that deal is what brought OUT to the SEC.
The money to move right now would be a LARGE net loss for UT because they already have 20M a season from ESPN on top of the B12 conf splits which were 35M even in a COVID season. They made 55M last year with no fans for broadcast rights.
So that is a business complication.

And then there is the fact the SEC hasn't invited them earlier than the new TV deal.
Nor has OU shown ANY willingness to buy themselves out.
Does the SEC even want them prior to the new TV deal??
If the CFP stays at 4 for a few more years does OU want to go early and greatly reduce their CFP chances?

Other than fan chatter and assumption there is zero reason to believe they have a good out plan much less a full on date. You'd be better off believing Texas is back.
Red McCombs is 93 years old. He's sold off much of his business holdings and if the master plan for UT is a gift to him they better get that gift today before that money hits a trust.

 

[Diehardblues]

Moreso than that the league by-laws state they must have 8 teams to exist.
If they took it down to 6 teams you couldn't have the votes to expand because you need 8 of 10. It would have killed it off as is.
Zero buy outs.

But this have your cake and eat it to play by ESPN/SEC/OUT which was executed so quietly and with such precision left enormous room for the Big 12 to fight back and do serious damage.
And yes, I am very proud of how quickly they moved.
Then again, it's not really shocking.
UT and OU were the teams most against expansion. They saw each added team siphoning off their money.
But the Big 12 needed to look beyond finances and get to a stable conference with solid divisions again for the sheer rankings benefits.
More teams with fewer losses because they play each other less often.
12-14 teams is the current P5 model and 4 major conf w 16 teams was the suggested long-term goal as far back as 5 years ago.

So it was Tx and Ou who were against the expansion a few years ago?

 

[CouchCoach]

While the Big 12 will survive, it will not be close to what it was in stature in football with OU and UT gone, the other teams are hardly replacements of interest to most fans.

It is going to be one of the 2nd tier conferences in football and if Clemson is falling, the ACC is in the same boat. They've been the OU of the ACC for years.

The writing was on the wall when the idea of a super conference could not be brought to fruition because that's what OU and UT wanted to be a part of so they're doing the next best thing, turning the SEC into the super conference. The matchups are going to dominate the TV ratings and that's what this was all about to ESPN and why they brokered the deal to get it done.

 

[Diehardblues]

While the Big 12 will survive, it will not be close to what it was in stature in football with OU and UT gone, the other teams are hardly replacements of interest to most fans.

It is going to be one of the 2nd tier conferences in football and if Clemson is falling, the ACC is in the same boat. They've been the OU of the ACC for years.

The writing was on the wall when the idea of a super conference could not be brought to fruition because that's what OU and UT wanted to be a part of so they're doing the next best thing, turning the SEC into the super conference. The matchups are going to dominate the TV ratings and that's what this was all about to ESPN and why they brokered the deal to get it done.

If you’re not a fan or alumni of the remaining teams then you really don’t have a horse in the race. Basically just a fan looking in from the outside. Which is fine. But we really don’t care if we look as interesting without two marquee schools.

Honestly it makes the conference more competitive . Financially we don’t appear to lose much. I saw reports only 3-5 million a year and that’s before we might add Boise or Memphis.

Turns out it was Tex and Ou who are holding back expanding the conference as they didn’t want to divvy up the pie anymore.

Let the SEC have their super conference . Who cares. We’ll still get an automatic bid once the expansion goes thru. Most of the remaining schools didn’t think we’d ever get outside at large bids anyway. Baylor and TCU got screwed a few years ago by Ohio State. It is what it is. We are more invested in our schools and their interest.

Let them all fight it out over in the super conference for those playoff spots. We’ll take our shot at automatic bid. It was always our only shot anyway. And we’ll enjoy the camaraderie and rivalries with schools and fans who want to be invested with similar interest who aren’t all about winning National Championships. I know far too many of their fans and I’m glad I’m not one of them.

Im just fine being a private school competing in a Power 5 conference. We win championships in other sports and still enjoy competing in football. It’s all we’ve had anyway. We haven’t lost anything.

 

[Diehardblues]

I watch on Saturdays with 5 TV’s and devices about 20-25 games from 11am to Midnight.

I enjoy the big school matchups. But they aren’t always my games of immediate interest. That’s what great about having multiple viewing options. I can watch them all.

But the big matchups were always what caught casual fans interest unless you were an alumni or fan of these other schools. Fortunately the NCAA and broadcasting affiliates make room for most all of them cause on my tv access it makes little difference whether it’s the prime time ABC or ESPN game as they all have equal access to me and prob most diehard fans.

 

[Diehardblues]

And I’m not sure the Big 12 had been what it once was anyway. My friends had nicknamed it the Little 10. Texas hasn’t been a serious national contender for over a decade. And OU hadn’t won one in 2 decades. Only reason they’ve even got into playoffs was in name only basically.

I’d argue we’d already been downgraded by many to a 2nd tier conference. I hate to lose the Texas rivalry more than anything. It was a fun game every year with our history . A bigger game for us than them. Mainly cause we’ve had it so long. Same way I felt about A&M.

This just gives us a reason not to root for them in any situation. As much as they were rivals I’m a conference Homer first. I’d root for them outside our conference when it didn’t conflict in our schools like in bowl games, big matchups , etc.

But not anymore. We’ll be rooting for the SEC to take it to them much like the Hogs did Saturday. I hope they are reduced much like Arkansas has been in SEC and Nebraska in Big 10 cause nothing Haunts those fans more than not winning championships. Screw em all!! We’ll be just fine.

 

[jterrell]

And I’m not sure the Big 12 had been what it once was anyway. My friends had nicknamed it the Little 10. Texas hasn’t been a serious national contender for over a decade. And OU hadn’t won one in 2 decades. Only reason they’ve even got into playoffs was in name only basically.

I’d argue we’d already been downgraded by many to a 2nd tier conference. I hate to lose the Texas rivalry more than anything. It was a fun game every year with our history . A bigger game for us than them. Mainly cause we’ve had it so long. Same way I felt about A&M.

This just gives us a reason not to root for them in any situation. As much as they were rivals I’m a conference Homer first. I’d root for them outside our conference when it didn’t conflict in our schools like in bowl games, big matchups , etc.

But not anymore. We’ll be rooting for the SEC to take it to them much like the Hogs did Saturday. I hope they are reduced much like Arkansas has been in SEC and Nebraska in Big 10 cause nothing Haunts those fans more than not winning championships. Screw em all!! We’ll be just fine.

The 10 team conference was proven horrid by the Big 10 who fell off with that format and then expanded.
A true round robin with a certain repeat between 1-2 is the very worst model for having high rankings and CFP hopefuls.
A team basically had to not only go undefeated but beat the 2nd best team twice to ensure a spot.
10 games a year versus P5 competition is just stupid for someone like Kansas or even Tech/Baylor/KST.
And over time the rep matters more than anything else.

The Big 12 routinely fared well in bowl season but looked like crap in season with low rankings.

Why? The 12 team 8 conf game model averaged 7.2 wins per season.
The 10 team round robin with 10 P5 games? 6.2 wins per season.
So basically each school was penalized an average of 1 loss.

 

[jterrell]

While the Big 12 will survive, it will not be close to what it was in stature in football with OU and UT gone, the other teams are hardly replacements of interest to most fans.

It is going to be one of the 2nd tier conferences in football and if Clemson is falling, the ACC is in the same boat. They've been the OU of the ACC for years.

The writing was on the wall when the idea of a super conference could not be brought to fruition because that's what OU and UT wanted to be a part of so they're doing the next best thing, turning the SEC into the super conference. The matchups are going to dominate the TV ratings and that's what this was all about to ESPN and why they brokered the deal to get it done.

That's possible but certainly not inherently true.
Someone will rise up the Big 12 and win 10-11 games.
And that winning will be rewarded with eyeballs and dollars and reputation.

Think UT is going to draw a ton of eyeballs going 6-6 in the SEC West? Unlikely.

The league immediately gets more fun with a bunch of teams who can each rise up and not 1 team signing 20 four stars a year and dominating while another signs 20 only to suck.

OUT took the money but they are the stupid ones. They've relegated themselves into following in TAMU's footsteps.
Both schools lose any clout whatsoever over conference decisions.

 

[Diehardblues]

That's possible but certainly not inherently true.
Someone will rise up the Big 12 and win 10-11 games.
And that winning will be rewarded with eyeballs and dollars and reputation.

Think UT is going to draw a ton of eyeballs going 6-6 in the SEC West? Unlikely.

The league immediately gets more fun with a bunch of teams who can each rise up and not 1 team signing 20 four stars a year and dominating while another signs 20 only to suck.

OUT took the money but they are the stupid ones. They've relegated themselves into following in TAMU's footsteps.
Both schools lose any clout whatsoever over conference decisions.

Texas with SEC West . Alabama, Auburn, LSU, A&M, OU( whether they are in West or not with Red River Rivalry) and 2 SEC East teams assuredly has a potential of 4-6 losses a year. And that doesn’t count potential tough matchups with Arkansas and Miss teams.

It shouldn’t be long until they start missing the Techs, Kansas and Baylor’s of the Big 12. OU isn’t going to cruise thru conference either like they did Big 12 and Big 8 with basically only 1 or 2 tough games a year. The fact they couldn’t ever win a game in playoffs proves they aren’t ready for SEC. Hope they get their butts handed to them.

 

[Diehardblues]

The 10 team conference was proven horrid by the Big 10 who fell off with that format and then expanded.
A true round robin with a certain repeat between 1-2 is the very worst model for having high rankings and CFP hopefuls.
A team basically had to not only go undefeated but beat the 2nd best team twice to ensure a spot.
10 games a year versus P5 competition is just stupid for someone like Kansas or even Tech/Baylor/KST.
And over time the rep matters more than anything else.

The Big 12 routinely fared well in bowl season but looked like crap in season with low rankings.

Why? The 12 team 8 conf game model averaged 7.2 wins per season.
The 10 team round robin with 10 P5 games? 6.2 wins per season.
So basically each school was penalized an average of 1 loss.

Yea, the Little 10 was doomed from the onset. Finally they’re expanding back to 12 and hopefully beyond.

Apparently we’ve rid ourselves of the teams that didn’t want to expand . We are no longer the Tx/ OU conf. Which I’m going to be ok with.

We’ll still have some national contenders . And with the AP rankings we’ll still have some top 10 ranked teams.

BYU has won a national championship. Central Florida has gone undefeated and challenged the playoff system . TCU and Baylor in recent years both challenged it. Cincinnati is consistently ranked. There’s still much potential.

I really think this is going to be good for everyone. There’s still a ton of talent here in Texas that’s going to want to stay in Houston, Central Texas, DFW area and West Texas. And OK St and Kansas teams will be able to recruit them as well. And it opens up other rich areas of talent in Florida and Ohio.

Personally I think the Big 12 without their marquee teams is going to be more competitive and interesting for all of the teams. I went to the Big 12 championship game a couple years ago and it was basically like playing in Norman with at least 80% OU fans. That’s going to change and it will be welcomed.