This is one of the better threads on this board lately..a lot of well made points. Ravi is right in his analysis of Bledsoe's ability to come back...at one point he held the NFL comeback record with over 20 games, and may still hold it.
I watched Bledsoe very closely throughout the NE portion of his career, and understand what the concerns/issues were under Pete Carroll and under Belichick.
With the Bills I saw three or four games a year, but was not paying close enough attention to the offensive systems..and the system, not the personnel that has been so well discussed here, has always struck me as Drew's biggest problem. It won't be Witten vs Riersema, or Johnson vs Moulds that will dictate if DB suceeds or fails, imo.
It will be how comfortable Bill can make Drew in the same basic O he ran in NE, while at the same time adapting to the realities of what DCs now understand about Drew's game..that he shoots himslef in the foot with his own impatience.
When Drew went to Buffalo, he was working under the very complicated Kevin Gilbride
system, with its notorious 'tree routes'. This was the complex receiver route scheme that depends on receivers having the option to 'branch off' in several directions based on how the corner played his man. The receiver had to make the right decision, and the QB had to be very much on the same page with him, understanding all the possibilities the receiver had, and identifying which move the receiver would take.
It is a very cerebral approach for receivers and QBs. You gotta read the db AND the wideout.
This is the scheme that undid Kordell Stewart, and it was largely because his receivers did not grasp it, not just Kordell. When Gilbride first installed it in Pittsburgh, the receivers were midle of the road types, not the stable Buress-Ward-Randel El they had in the most recent past.
After witnessing how Drew could not handle the Zampese timing O in NE, I thought he was sunk in Buffalo. But lo and behold, in that first season in Buffalo, for most of it anyway, Bledsoe was excelling at it. He got such a strong grasp of both Moulds and Price, and his decision making was solider than I had seen in years. Surprisingly, Bledsoe was throwing a lot longer a lot more often than you'd expect with Gilbride, and it was working because of that synchronicity with his receiver and all of them apparently understanding how to work the tree routes. It was very YAC based, and defenses were flat out stymied...
Then it just fell apart.
Now this is the SAME O that less than two years later would be scrapped when Greg Williams and with him Gilbride, were fired. Drew then made some remarks about the system being way too complicated for the receivers and the oline. But it HAD been working early on, and the receiver adjustments that it was based on made it work.
I can't say exactly what other teams did to stifle Drew, but I know what the Jets did, and that was go to more zone coverage...with the intent of doing ONE thing....preventing Drew from going long. Bellichick took it one further and flooded the zones on Drew. When he was forced to dink and dunk down the field, his own impatience would sabotage him. I can't think of any other way to describe it but a lack of patience. And that frustration with not being able to go long as much as he likes snowballs, and then his good decisions become panciky, forced ones, and his accuracy suffers, he then tries to force it long, or waits too too long waiting for a receiver downfield to get open when there are two of them open right in front of him.
This trait of his is not dependent on personnel, and it won't be a marginal upgrade of
JJ over McGahee, or the superiority of Witten that will matter, but if that confounded lack of discipline Drew has is eradicated, or at least minimized.
Now I do think Bill and ONLY Bill can beat that impatience back out of Drew, and I think we may be surprised how little rein Drew gets, much less so that Vinny, until he can revert to the game he played under Bill, which was to take what you are given ALWAYS, and not lose it or hold onto it if the long option isn't there, ....because it won't be easy for Drew to look to Jason or Key when he thinks he can get more...the sad fact is DCs know you can beat Drew Bledsoe by doing just two things...blitzing up the middle and taking the long ball away, because he has lacked the discipline to kill them underneath.