Breaking down the College Football Playoffs

[jterrell]

As we await the first official CFP standings it is time to start a thread that tracks the key teams and games weekly.

I believe in doing so we will see how crazy the CFP landscape truly is week to week.

Top 8 AP teams 10-21
1. Miss St: ROAD games at Alabama and Ole Miss remaining... plus theoretically the SEC CG.
2. FSU: Toughest games left are @ LOU and @ Miami. Biggest hurdle is getting Jameis through the season eligible.
3. Ole Miss: @ LSU, Home versus AUB, Miss ST.
4. Bama: @LSU, Home versus Miss St and AUB.
5. AUB: @Ole Miss, @georgia, @Bama
6: Oregon: @Utah, @OGST, Home versus Stanford, Pac 12 CG theorethically.
7. Notre Dame: @Ariz ST, @USC
8. Mich ST: Home versus OHST, @ PennSt @Maryland

This weekend: Looks pretty blah after last weekends upset specials and the ND/FSU game.
3Ole Miss @ 24LSU. LSU has been pretty down but they will play spoiler if they can and are dangerous at home.
13 OhioST @PennSt
20 USC @ 19 Utah
Not much meat on the bone this weekend so if you gotta knock off honey'dos not a bad week to do so.
Won't be many slow weekends after this.

 

[jterrell]

Key Terms: FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field. *FPI is updated daily in the current week.
SOS: Strtength of Schedule as related to average NCAA team. Ranked hardest to softest so lower number is better.

Conf looks:

Independent: 7 AP Notre Dame:
22 SOS, 15 FPI
Key games left @ Ariz St and @ USC.
To get in with 1 loss easiest via one of the Pac 12 teams they play to win the Pac 12 title.
Concern is lack of a conference championship as an Independent. Could be viewed as 2nd place ACC team by committee.

B1G:
8 AP Mich St:
86 SOS, 16 FPI
Key games left Home versus OHST, @ PennSt @Maryland
Win out and win B1G CG with expected losses elsewhere and should be in.
Concern is low SOS and lack of Big 10 comp and possible head to head spot versus ORE who would deserve nod.

13 AP Ohio St
51 SOS, 5 FPI
Key games left @ Mich St @PennSt
Beat Mich St and take B1G title would give them a shot with 1 loss.
Concern is really bad loss at home and weak SOS which lacks quality wins.

Pac 12:
6 AP Oregon:
25 SOS, 8 FPI
Key Games left @Utah, @OGST, Home versus Stanford, Pac 12 CG theoretically.
Win out and almost guaranteed to be a top 4 team and CFP squad.

14 AP Arizona State
27 SOS, 23 FPI
Key Games left @ Utah @ Arizona Home versus Notre Dame
Only shot is to win out and beat a top 5 Oregon in Pac 12 CG.

15 AP Arizona
30 SOS, 22 FPI
Key games left @ UCLA, @ Utah Home versus Ariz ST.
Only shot is to win out and beat a top 5 Oregon in Pac 12 CG.

ACC:
2 AP FSU
No true key games left.
Win out and keep Jameis eligible and they are a lock.
Concern is Jameis has a lot of baggage he is carrying to stay eligible. Pollsters will dock them majorly if Jameis is out.

Big 12:
10 AP TCU
41 SOS, 12 FPI
Key Games at WVA home versus KST
Win out and they are likely in.
Concern is backing in as other teams lose more so than knocking off top 5 teams to get in.

11 AP Kansas State
49 SOS, 25 FPI
Key Games @ TCU @ WVA @ Baylor
Win out they are likely in.
Concern is possible head to head spot versus a 2 loss Auburn team that beat them at home.

12 AP Baylor
64 SOS, 10 FPI
Key Games @ OU, Home versus KST
Win out and they have a good shot at getting in.
Concern is weak SOS so 1 loss mish mash could see them penalized.

17 AP OU
7 SOS, 9 FPI
Key Games Home versus BAY
Win out they have a salty resume for a 2 loss team. Probably best 2 loss non SEC hopeful.
Concern is 2 losses and recent questionable QB play....

SEC:
where to begin....
The top 2 SEC teams have a very good shot at getting in.
Any 1 loss or obviously no loss SEC team gets in IMHO.

1 AP Miss ST
19 SOS, 6 FPI
Miss St: ROAD games at Alabama and Ole Miss remaining... plus theoretically the SEC CG.
Get by with 1 or fewer losses and they stroll in.

3 AP Ole Miss
10 SOS, 3 FPI
Key Games @ LSU, Home versus AUB, Miss ST... plus theoretically the SEC CG
Get by with 1 or fewer losses and they stroll in.

4 AP Bama
6 SOS, 2 FPI
Key games @LSU, Home versus Miss St and AUB.
Get by with 1 or fewer losses and they PROBABLY stroll in.
Concern is having 1 loss Ole Miss as head to head spot consideration.
Probably team most likely to get in with 2 losses if it came to that.

5 AP Auburn
2 SOS, 1 FPI
Key games @Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @Bama
Win out they get in.
Concern 1 loss being by 15 points.

9 AP Georgia
15 SOS, 4 FPI
Key Games Home versus Auburn and SEC CG
Win out and they are in.
Concern: Lose SEC CG and resume likely not good enough. SOS will fall a lot in next few weeks.

 

[burmafrd]

to be blunt you wasted your time.

The committee has no rules or anything else to bind them. So all your speculation is frankly worthless.

THey probably could care less about polls; or anything else except what they perceive to be the best teams- and with 13 different people you will get 13 different points of view.

 

[jterrell]

to be blunt you wasted your time.

The committee has no rules or anything else to bind them. So all your speculation is frankly worthless.

THey probably could care less about polls; or anything else except what they perceive to be the best teams- and with 13 different people you will get 13 different points of view.

You really couldn't be more clueless.
They have specific criteria to consider and will rank 25 teams creating their own rankings.
They will publish those weekly which is where this thread gets its start.

The first meeting of the committee is the 27th and 28th of October.

Proposed Selection Process:
Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

 

[jterrell]

the 3 gams I identified as key this week were:
3Ole Miss @ 24LSU. LSU has been pretty down but they will play spoiler if they can and are dangerous at home.
13 OhioST @PennSt
20 USC @ 19 Utah

wow... 24 LSU gets upset over #3 Ole Miss
13 OSU wins over PSU but in OT.
19 Utah beats 20 USC by a smidge.

 

[jterrell]

Key Games this weekend: (I will try to catch at least half of all of them)
2 FSU at Louisville THURSDAY ---FSU bombarded with drama versus a relaxed Petrino offense.

4 Auburn at 7 Ole Miss ---Ole Miss after a letdown loss but at home
Stanford at 4 Oregon ---Stanford on down year but have always had Oregon's number schematically.
10 TCU at 20 WVA ---Couches very likely burned as WVA strong at home. TCU has tremendous offense.
14 Zona at 25 UCLA ---Zona slightly overrated and playing on road but UCLA not that good. Mostly an eliminator game that has value because its played really late with few other games to watch.

 

[BoysFan4ever]

oh..must watch WVU & TCU.

That should be a good one.

 

[jterrell]

From this point forward I will refer to the CFB rankings not the previously used AP.

First CFB rankings 1-20
1

Mississippi State 7-0
2

Florida State 7-0
3

Auburn 6-1
4

Mississippi 7-1
5

Oregon 7-1
6

Alabama 7-1
7

TCU 6-1
8

Michigan State 7-1
9

Kansas State 6-1
10

Notre Dame 6-1
11

Georgia 6-1
12

Arizona 6-1
13

Baylor 6-1
14

Arizona State 6-1
15

Nebraska 7-1
16

Ohio State 6-1
17

Utah 6-1
18

Oklahoma 5-2
19

LSU 7-2
20

West Virginia 6-2

 

[jterrell]

21-25

21

Clemson 6-2
22

UCLA 6-2
23

East Carolina 6-1
24

Duke 6-1
25

Louisville 6-2

 

[jterrell]

oh..must watch WVU & TCU.

That should be a good one.

For me Auburn @ Ole Miss, TCU @ WVA are both can't miss.
I'll catch a lot of the FSU @ Louis game too partly because my Dad grew up in Kentucky and partly because it's a Thursday night with nothing to compete against.

I'll also try to catch the Stanford/Oregon game to see if the Ducks have figured out to handle a Stanford defense and then UCLA/Zona just to see if Zona looks for real.

 

[BoysFan4ever]

For me Auburn @ Ole Miss, TCU @ WVA are both can't miss.
I'll catch a lot of the FSU @ Louis game too partly because my Dad grew up in Kentucky and partly because it's a Thursday night with nothing to compete against.

I'll also try to catch the Stanford/Oregon game to see if the Ducks have figured out to handle a Stanford defense and then UCLA/Zona just to see if Zona looks for real.

I'm a Bama girl. I cannot bear to watch Auburn.

 

[jterrell]

I'm a Bama girl. I cannot bear to watch Auburn.

I can see why that'd be real tough... especially since you probably need to root for Auburn even!

Easiest way for Bama to win the SEC West is win out and have Auburn beat Ole Miss.
They'd win head to head versus Miss ST and go the SEC CG. Win that and they'd be in the 4 team playoffs; possibly as a 2 seed.

MissSt prolly still gets in under that scenario with only a Bama loss as a 4 seed.

 

[BoysFan4ever]

I can see why that'd be real tough... especially since you probably need to root for Auburn even!

Easiest way for Bama to win the SEC West is win out and have Auburn beat Ole Miss.
They'd win head to head versus Miss ST and go the SEC CG. Win that and they'd be in the 4 team playoffs; possibly as a 2 seed.

MissSt prolly still gets in under that scenario with only a Bama loss as a 4 seed.

I'm actually joking. Although I don't like Auburn i don't hate them like so many Bama fans/grads.

With some it is an actual deep seeded real hate. It is hard to hope they win though.

 

[jterrell]

LOU lived up to my big game billing tho they folded like a cheap suit late.

Not sure what to make of FSU. No good team should be digging the holes they do but they don't just get out of them they fly up out of them as if they never existed.
It's crazy.

Looking around the landscape and upcoming games I think FSU could lose to MIA and still make the playoffs.
I just don't know whether or not they can win a Semi-final game.
They've trailed big a couple times now to marginal top 25 teams.

 

[DFWJC]

Go Pirates.

ARRRGGGHHH

I'd just be thrilled if they end up in the top 20

 

[DFWJC]

LOU lived up to my big game billing tho they folded like a cheap suit late.

Not sure what to make of FSU. No good team should be digging the holes they do but they don't just get out of them they fly up out of them as if they never existed.
It's crazy.

Looking around the landscape and upcoming games I think FSU could lose to MIA and still make the playoffs.
I just don't know whether or not they can win a Semi-final game.
They've trailed big a couple times now to marginal top 25 teams.

FSU finally looked for real the second half of last night.

But they have some serious chinks in the armor. They're very fortunate they don't have Miss State's schedule, for example.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

LOU lived up to my big game billing tho they folded like a cheap suit late.

Not sure what to make of FSU. No good team should be digging the holes they do but they don't just get out of them they fly up out of them as if they never existed.
It's crazy.

Looking around the landscape and upcoming games I think FSU could lose to MIA and still make the playoffs.
I just don't know whether or not they can win a Semi-final game.
They've trailed big a couple times now to marginal top 25 teams.

FSU finally looked for real the second half of last night.

But they have some serious chinks in the armor. They're very fortunate they don't have Miss State's schedule, for example.

look, they are young (super young) 4 of their last 5 tds last night were by true freshman...
they lost their starting center for the season after game 2 (frosh playing that position now) and has had numerous other injuries along the line..
only 1 starting linebacker played last night....
lost defensive leaders to the draft, not to mention several defensive lineman as the season has moved on..... and the d coordinator is new...

they've been playing shorthanded all year... but they got super heart, not intuitive, or consistent... but they got heart....
young, talented, pups...


on top of that, clemson, ND, Louisville, OSU is not a cake walk....

yes I'm sensitive

 

[DFWJC]

look, they are young (super young) 4 of their last 5 tds last night were by true freshman...
they lost their starting center for the season after game 2 (frosh playing that position now) and has had numerous other injuries along the line..
only 1 starting linebacker played last night....
lost defensive leaders to the draft, not to mention several defensive lineman as the season has moved on..... and the d coordinator is new...

they've been playing shorthanded all year... but they got super heart, not intuitive, or consistent... but they got heart....
young, talented, pups...


on top of that, clemson, ND, Louisville, OSU is not a cake walk....

yes I'm sensitive

My wife graduated from FSU and I pull them as well

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

My wife graduated from FSU and I pull them as well

 

[jterrell]

look, they are young (super young) 4 of their last 5 tds last night were by true freshman...
they lost their starting center for the season after game 2 (frosh playing that position now) and has had numerous other injuries along the line..
only 1 starting linebacker played last night....
lost defensive leaders to the draft, not to mention several defensive lineman as the season has moved on..... and the d coordinator is new...

they've been playing shorthanded all year... but they got super heart, not intuitive, or consistent... but they got heart....
young, talented, pups...


on top of that, clemson, ND, Louisville, OSU is not a cake walk....

yes I'm sensitive

What you are pointing out is why they aren't really the best team in the country and I agree.
I think they'll be better next year.
But this year was rather a rebuilding year.

The schedule wasn't tough. OSU is gonna be a 6-8th place Big 12 team.
Not sure any ACC team outside FSU will end the year ranked top 20.
We've seen them all struggle.
Louisville may well lose 5 games this year. It is a down year for them.

FSU getting wins and finding a way is nice but they are loaded with 5 star talent playing teams without that luxury.

Right now I'd pit 1 FSU vs #4 TCU in the CFB Playoff semi. And I'd suggest TCU is the favorite.