BTB: 2016 NFL Draft Order: Cowboys Currently Picking Fourth Overall

[NewsBot]

Four teams, including the Cowboys, currently have a 4-9 record that has them picking between the 4th and 7th overall spot. A couple of tiebreakers currently give the Cowboys the 4th overall pick in that group.

The loss against the Packers yesterday means the Cowboys remain in the race for one of the top draft spots in the 2016 NFL Draft.

Only three teams now have a worse record than the Cowboys: The Titans, Chargers, and Browns all currently sit at 3-10 while the Cowboys sit at 4-9.

In addition to the Cowboys, three other teams currently have a 4-9 record: The Ravens, Lions, and 49ers. Because they all share the same record, tiebreakers come into play to determine the draft order.

Strength of schedule (SOS) is the first tiebreaker in determining the draft order, with the easier schedule getting the higher pick. The Cowboys have an easier SOS (.517) than the Lions (.529) and 49ers (.531), but are tied with the Ravens.

This is where the second tiebreaker comes in, each team's conference record. The Cowboys currently are 3-8 in the division, while the Ravens are just 3-6, so the Cowboys get the number four overall spot for now.

The third tiebreaker, which isn't needed yet, would be the division record, and if that wouldn't break a tie, a coin flip at the NFL Scouting Combine in February would determine the final draft order.

The Cowboys' current draft spot offers up a lot of intriguing options of course, but the fight for one of the top QBs in the draft might get the most headlines. Tennesse has the top pick and is unlikely to pick a QB, though they could look to trade the pick to a QB-needy team. The Chargers may or may not be ready to look for Philip Rivers' (34) eventual replacement, and the Browns have three more games to decide whether they want to invest another first-round pick in a QB.

Paxton Lynch of Memphis and Jared Goff of California are the QBs currently projected to be at the top of the draft, and there's a good chance one of the two, and perhaps even both, could be available with the fourth overall pick - unless a QB-needy team like the 49ers trades up for a pick ahead of the Cowboys.

Lots of possibilities.

Note also that the Chargers and Browns, both currently ranked ahead of the Cowboys, have a stronger SOS than Dallas. If the Cowboys continue playing the way they do, and all three teams end up with the same record, the Cowboys would pick ahead of the Chargers and Browns.

Here's the current 2016 NFL Draft order (SOS uses full-season schedules).

1. Tennessee Titans: 3-10 (.498 strength of schedule)
2. San Diego Chargers: 3-10 (.527 SOS)
3. Cleveland Browns: 3-10 (.529 SOS)
4. Dallas Cowboys: 4-9 (.517 SOS - 3-8 in conference)
5. Baltimore Ravens: 4-9 (.517 SOS - 3-6 in conference)
6. Detroit Lions: 4-9 (.529 SOS)
7. San Francisco 49ers: 4-9 (.531 SOS)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-8 (.469 SOS)
9. New Orleans Saints: 5-8 (.512 SOS)
10. Chicago Bears: 5-8 (.524 SOS - 2-7 in conference)
11. St. Louis Rams: 5-8 (.524 SOS - 4-5 in conference)
12. Miami Dolphins: 5-7 (.473 SOS)
13. New York Giants: 5-7 (.502 SOS)
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-7 (.478 SOS)
15. Atlanta Falcons: 6-7 (.488 SOS)
16. Oakland Raiders: 6-7 (.500 SOS)
17. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-7 (.512 SOS - 3-6 in conference)
18. Houston Texans: 6-7 (.512 SOS - 4-4 in conference)
19. Buffalo Bills: 6-7 (.522 SOS)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-5 (.510 SOS)

Projected to make the playoffs:

21. Washington: 6-7 (.488 SOS)
22. Indianapolis Colts: 6-7 (.512 SOS)
23. New York Jets: 8-5 (.459 SOS)
24. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-5 (.486 SOS)
25. Minnesota Vikings: 8-5 (.493 SOS)
26. Seattle Seahawks: 8-5 (.495 SOS)
27. Green Bay Packers: 9-4 (.486 SOS)
28. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-3 (.466 SOS)
29. Denver Broncos: 10-3 (.490 SOS)
30. Arizona Cardinals: 11-2 (.462 SOS)
31. New England Patriots: 11-2 (.473 SOS) - PICK FORFEITED
32. Carolina Panthers: 13-0 (.444 SOS)

Continue reading...

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Hopefully some teams in front of Dallas win a game or two.

 

[The Quest for Six]

We're almost number 1!!

 

[TonyS]

We don't wanna be Number 1, IMO. It just allows Jerry to fall in love with a QB or other player that shouldn't go #1 and we end up reaching. I like spots 2-6. You can still get a great player, but don't have all the hype of the #1. Looks like we are right in line with that projection now. Hopefully, we don't screw this up!

 

[Gaede]

We don't wanna be Number 1, IMO. It just allows Jerry to fall in love with a QB or other player that shouldn't go #1 and we end up reaching. I like spots 2-6. You can still get a great player, but don't have all the hype of the #1. Looks like we are right in line with that projection now. Hopefully, we don't screw this up!

Agreed, top 5 is great but you are locked in at #1.

 

[Sydla]

Jalen Ramsey, Jaylon Smith, Robert Nkedmiche.............. come on down.

 

[Risen Star]

We don't wanna be Number 1, IMO. It just allows Jerry to fall in love with a QB or other player that shouldn't go #1 and we end up reaching. I like spots 2-6. You can still get a great player, but don't have all the hype of the #1. Looks like we are right in line with that projection now. Hopefully, we don't screw this up!

Yeah, I'll call BS on that. Especially with the new rookie wage scale making no pick a true cap killer anymore. There isn't a bad thing about having the first choice in the entire draft. Which is why I mourned that Commanders win last week. It did nothing but hurt the team going forward.

 

[Cowboyz88]

Sadly, I feel like they will find a way to screw it up, either by winning another "who cares" game or blowing the pick.

 

[jazzcat22]

Hopefully some teams in front of Dallas win a game or two.

Was just looking at the schedule, marking what teams I want to win next week, that helps our draft order. not that I want us to lose. but the 3-10 teams and the other 4-9 teams to win.
with the exception of a few games though. Like KC beating Baltimore, as it keeps them ahead of the Steelers. And Vikings beating Bears, as I want them to win the division over GB.

 

[gimmesix]

I'm torn between wanting to plan for the future at QB and wanting to get the best defensive player available to try to get this defense better to support Romo's last year or last couple of years.

Are Lynch and Goff the type of QBs we can't afford to pass on in the top five?

 

[canters]

For those draft nerds, who are the best RBs. QBs and impact defensive players that might be there for us at #4 or 5. I admit I do not follow college FB.

 

[DCBoysfan]

We don't wanna be Number 1, IMO. It just allows Jerry to fall in love with a QB or other player that shouldn't go #1 and we end up reaching. I like spots 2-6. You can still get a great player, but don't have all the hype of the #1. Looks like we are right in line with that projection now. Hopefully, we don't screw this up!

Honestly, I think if Dallas gets the No. 1 spot Jerry would trade the pick.

 

[Apollo Creed]

The best part about being this garbage - you basically get 2 first round picks.

Pick 3-6, with the Pats forfeitting their pick - would be 34-36.

 

[DCBoysfan]

12-4 to top five pick is a hard fall.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

Yeah, I'll call BS on that. Especially with the new rookie wage scale making no pick a true cap killer anymore. There isn't a bad thing about having the first choice in the entire draft. Which is why I mourned that Commanders win last week. It did nothing but hurt the team going forward.

I like you man but you really need to have your head examined.

Mourning a Commanders loss really ought to be a punishable crime.


Now that said there is nothing wrong with having the #1 pick. It doesn't kill your cap anymore, like it would have in years past, and there is nothing to say you have to stay put at #1 and pick there.

If there is some team in the top five that wants to jump up and get that top spot for a nice bundle of picks I have no issue with that. I'd love to have the #1 pick and have someone stupid offer a ton, for nothing, like the Commanders offered up for RGIII a few years ago. I'd love something like that.

 

[jazzcat22]

We don't wanna be Number 1, IMO. It just allows Jerry to fall in love with a QB or other player that shouldn't go #1 and we end up reaching. I like spots 2-6. You can still get a great player, but don't have all the hype of the #1. Looks like we are right in line with that projection now. Hopefully, we don't screw this up!

I understand what you mean. But still having the overall #1 is great. However, i am afraid they would screw it up. They could still trade down to around 3rd to 7th, get a QB, and more picks later to fill other needs.

Or with the 1st pick, get Joey Bosa. That is a can't go wrong pick.

 

[Sydla]

I'm torn between wanting to plan for the future at QB and wanting to get the best defensive player available to try to get this defense better to support Romo's last year or last couple of years.

Are Lynch and Goff the type of QBs we can't afford to pass on in the top five?

No. That's my opinion and appears to be the opinion of a few scouts. Now one or both may go Top 5 but it seems some think that's a huge risk.

 

[Risen Star]

I like you man but you really need to have your head examined.

Mourning a Commanders loss really ought to be a punishable crime.


Now that said there is nothing wrong with having the #1 pick. It doesn't kill your cap anymore, like it would have in years past, and there is nothing to say you have to stay put at #1 and pick there.

If there is some team in the top five that wants to jump up and get that top spot for a nice bundle of picks I have no issue with that. I'd love to have the #1 pick and have someone stupid offer a ton, for nothing, like the Commanders offered up for RGIII a few years ago. I'd love something like that.

And where did I say you had to pick at 1? If you're trading, the 1st pick is worth more than any other. So how is that a bad thing in terms of getting the 1st pick overall draft slot?

I don't need my head examined because I know that my team hurt their future by winning a meaningless game in a lost season.

 

[Apollo Creed]

If we manage to get the 2nd or 3rd pick - you usually can get a kings ransom for a team wanting to trade up and get their guy.

Julio Jones, RG3, etc were some mega deals that either can pay off in spades or blow up in your face. I'd love the idea of picking up a few 1st and 2nd round picks just for swapping say, pick 3 for 8.

They don't have to tank, Garrett is our coach - we'll end up with <4 wins a top 5 pick no doubt.

 

[Sydla]

For those draft nerds, who are the best RBs. QBs and impact defensive players that might be there for us at #4 or 5. I admit I do not follow college FB.

There is no RB worth a Top 5 pick. Elliott is probably the best TB but he's more a mid to late round first round pick it seems in many mocks.

Best QBs are Goff from Cal and Lynch from Memphis. One or both might go Top 5 but there is a lot of chatter out there neither are really that great. A few articles have said it's not the best draft to have a Top 5 pick and want a QB. Both guys have questions.

Biggest impact players on defense in the Top 5? Joey Bosa, the SDE from Ohio State is a player. Nkemdiche is the DT from Ole Miss. Freak athlete but just got into a weird situation where he fell out a window because he was high. Jalen Ramsey is a FS from FSU. Another highly thought of kid. Some scouting reports say the kid with the highest upside might be Jaylon Smith, the LB from ND. Hargreaves, the CB from Florida is another top player.

Other top players could be OTs - Larry Tunsil from Ole Miss and maybe Ronnie Stanley from ND. But I can't see us going OL again.