Bubba Rock
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The only way Bledsoe approaches 4K yards is if Julius goes down early for the year. and one of our other receivers really develops into a star.
Can Drew Bledsoe pass for 4,000 yards this year?
- Thread starter Banned_n_austin
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SuspectCorner
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BZ is "dead on".blindzebra said:
aikman threw for less than 3500 when we we're winning this thing called the "lombardi trophy"....
keep the pressure off bledsoe. run the hayull outta the ball.
and play good defense.
bledsoe with 4000 yards and we're lookin' at another 6-10 season... or thereabouts.
4000 yards passing is something the Cowboys are likely looking to AVOID.
lspain1
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With an admittedly aging WR corps that may lack depth this season, I think the "spread em" passing attack is not going to be a great option this year. I'm not sayimg our WR's aren't good, but I think injuries later in the year may haunt us. For all we know this Morgan injury may already be a problem. So let's opt for a balanced attack that limits the downfield game this season. Deadslow, er Bledsoe .... less than 4000.
Maikeru-sama
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Banned_n_austin said:
Nope. The run game and the tight ends are the strength of the offense. I dont see any receivers getting alot of deep balls and/or alot of YAC.
If the right side is not sewn up and he continues to hold on to the ball, that is probably a hell no.
The real question is can he help guide this team to the playoffs. If your counting on Drew Bledsoe to carry this team, then you are already in trouble!!!
Hopefully Bill Parcells sees the backfield as the key to success and doesn't have Drew Bledsoe throwing 8 million times with a lead in the 4th Quarter like he had Testeverde doing.
Now that I think about, im not sure the Boys have ever had a 4000 Yard Passer. Let me look at dallascowboyz.com
.- Mike G.
ravidubey
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I agree that 4000 yards is a little high, but not by much. Today's game demands balance. Last year Vinnie threw for 3532 yards (mostly with crappy WR options) and that was about the limit given the lack of talent around him. Without a corresponding threat from the running game, defenses clamped down on the team.
It seems like BP would prefer to have 3200 yards passing supplemented with a huge dose of the run, defense, and ST's. This was Vinnie in '98 with the Jets. But I think this is an outmoded scheme now. Today you need WR's who consistently gain big yards after the catch (A YAC Monster) or guys who can catch the ball deep.
I'd like to see around 3800 yards passing with the team ranked middle-of-the pack in rushing attempts. With that kind of balance I think you'd see a great season from Julius and a very confident team that was not too dependent on any one facet of the game. Coupled with the defense BP is building this could be a great team-- if we find that YAC Monster WR.
In New England's offense, Tom Brady has thrown for a remarkably consistent 3764, 3620, and 3692 yards the past three seasons. Dillon didn't impact Brady's yards-- but he made NE 5th overall in rushing attempts and helped hone Brady's efficiency driving his YPA up almost a full yard. And this has been a team without a breakaway threat or YAC monster at WR! If NE's offseason moves imply anything, the trend will be for those yards to increase next year and rushing attempts decrease. I think if NE finds a YAC Monster, they will have built a team for the ages-- they won't need to score first and sit on the ball like they do now (I have a hunch that strategy has run its course).
Donovan McNabb was a rock-solid and consistent 3200 yards a season B.T.O. (Before Terrell Owens), but everyone knew their offense was suspect and that the D carried the Eagles. Last year with a true YAC Monster inTO, McNabb hit 3875 yards (and TO missed games). However, Philly was 31st in the league in rushing attempts. I believe if they bumped up their rushing attempts and kept their passing yardage the same (presumably by improving their wideouts), they would be a top 3 offense IMO and would have easily won the Superbowl.
Steve McNair had around 3300 yards most seasons before 2004, but in each season the team was at least 12th in rushing attempts and as high as 1st. They won, but people wouldn't call their offense dominant, and they never won a Superbowl. Again, no breakaway YAC monster at WR and too many rushing attempts IMO.
Daunte Culpepper threw for 4717 yards last year, but the Vikings were 28th in rushing attempts. Without Moss and hopefully with more running I'd expect to see Culpepper's numbers to drop about 1000 yards, and if they can stay healthy (and sober) at RB, find a YAC monster at WR, and improve their horrid defense this team could be Superbowl bound either this year or more likely next year.
Kurt Warner threw for 4353 and 4830 yards in his two Superbowl campaigns-- and this is with Faulk rushing for pro bowl numbers. Still, they needed to give the ball to Faulk more and clearly this was proven in the second Superbowl. The first year they were 17th in rushing attempts and the second Superbowl year they dropped to 22nd.
Peyton Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards every single year except his rookie season when he only had 3739-- and he also does it with huge numbers from Edge James and being middle-of-the pack in league rushing attempts. If they only had a defense they would be in the Superbowl every year. Manning is special, but Indy has the right formula on offense-- usually 16th in rushing attempts. He was outrageous passing last year, but that was a fluke. Indy needs to run the ball a bit more to get back to 16th in the league where they were well-balanced.
What we want to avoid is being the Rams. Marc Bulger missed two games and still threw for 3964 yards, but they were towards the bottom of the league in rushing attempts even with Jackson and Faulk. That team has all the elements on offense if their coach only had a brain. Still, with those WR's that team is always in the mix.
For the Cowboys, with both parts of the offense a viable threat, defenses won't be able to stop either the pass or the run as well. That should mean both great stats from Drew and the running game-- as long as our receivers stay healthy and able.
It seems like BP would prefer to have 3200 yards passing supplemented with a huge dose of the run, defense, and ST's. This was Vinnie in '98 with the Jets. But I think this is an outmoded scheme now. Today you need WR's who consistently gain big yards after the catch (A YAC Monster) or guys who can catch the ball deep.
I'd like to see around 3800 yards passing with the team ranked middle-of-the pack in rushing attempts. With that kind of balance I think you'd see a great season from Julius and a very confident team that was not too dependent on any one facet of the game. Coupled with the defense BP is building this could be a great team-- if we find that YAC Monster WR.
In New England's offense, Tom Brady has thrown for a remarkably consistent 3764, 3620, and 3692 yards the past three seasons. Dillon didn't impact Brady's yards-- but he made NE 5th overall in rushing attempts and helped hone Brady's efficiency driving his YPA up almost a full yard. And this has been a team without a breakaway threat or YAC monster at WR! If NE's offseason moves imply anything, the trend will be for those yards to increase next year and rushing attempts decrease. I think if NE finds a YAC Monster, they will have built a team for the ages-- they won't need to score first and sit on the ball like they do now (I have a hunch that strategy has run its course).
Donovan McNabb was a rock-solid and consistent 3200 yards a season B.T.O. (Before Terrell Owens), but everyone knew their offense was suspect and that the D carried the Eagles. Last year with a true YAC Monster inTO, McNabb hit 3875 yards (and TO missed games). However, Philly was 31st in the league in rushing attempts. I believe if they bumped up their rushing attempts and kept their passing yardage the same (presumably by improving their wideouts), they would be a top 3 offense IMO and would have easily won the Superbowl.
Steve McNair had around 3300 yards most seasons before 2004, but in each season the team was at least 12th in rushing attempts and as high as 1st. They won, but people wouldn't call their offense dominant, and they never won a Superbowl. Again, no breakaway YAC monster at WR and too many rushing attempts IMO.
Daunte Culpepper threw for 4717 yards last year, but the Vikings were 28th in rushing attempts. Without Moss and hopefully with more running I'd expect to see Culpepper's numbers to drop about 1000 yards, and if they can stay healthy (and sober) at RB, find a YAC monster at WR, and improve their horrid defense this team could be Superbowl bound either this year or more likely next year.
Kurt Warner threw for 4353 and 4830 yards in his two Superbowl campaigns-- and this is with Faulk rushing for pro bowl numbers. Still, they needed to give the ball to Faulk more and clearly this was proven in the second Superbowl. The first year they were 17th in rushing attempts and the second Superbowl year they dropped to 22nd.
Peyton Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards every single year except his rookie season when he only had 3739-- and he also does it with huge numbers from Edge James and being middle-of-the pack in league rushing attempts. If they only had a defense they would be in the Superbowl every year. Manning is special, but Indy has the right formula on offense-- usually 16th in rushing attempts. He was outrageous passing last year, but that was a fluke. Indy needs to run the ball a bit more to get back to 16th in the league where they were well-balanced.
What we want to avoid is being the Rams. Marc Bulger missed two games and still threw for 3964 yards, but they were towards the bottom of the league in rushing attempts even with Jackson and Faulk. That team has all the elements on offense if their coach only had a brain. Still, with those WR's that team is always in the mix.
For the Cowboys, with both parts of the offense a viable threat, defenses won't be able to stop either the pass or the run as well. That should mean both great stats from Drew and the running game-- as long as our receivers stay healthy and able.
LaTunaNostra
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ravi, great post!!!
kmd24
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Let's break this down, shall we?
Assume that Bledsoe posts 8 yards per attempt, which is an unusually good result - typically among a QB's career years with the exception of an elite few (Young, Montana, Manning, Warner) who have posted such a number multiple times.
To acheive 4000 yards, Bledsoe would have to attempt 500 passes - that's over 31 attempts a game. In 2004, Dallas QB's attempted 513 passes, so it could happen if Bledsoe and the team plays lights out.
Suppose Bledsoe's ypa is equivalent to his best season - 7.55 ypa. Then he would need to attempt 530 passes, averaging over 33 a game. This is still within the realm of possibility; it's only one more attempt per game than 2004.
Suppose his ypa is closer to his career average - 6.58 ypa. Then he would have to attempt 608 passes - 38 per game. I don't see this happening.
There are two other competing factors that will influence Bledsoe's attempts - offensive balance and time of possession.
In 2004, Dallas QB's attempted 513 passes to 418 rushes by RB's and FB's. This is about 55% passing to 45% rushing. That is a pretty balanced attack in today's NFL, but I could see it shift more towards the running game. In 2003, Dallas ran the ball 436 times (46%) to 507 passes (54%). I doubt any team will rush more than it passes over an entire season. Note that I have excluded reverses, QB runs, and trick passes in this analysis. Including them skews the stats towards the running game. In 2003, including these statistics would give more running plays than passes because of Quincy Carter, but I have no way to determine which of Quincy's 68 rushes were designed runs and which were designed passes, so I left them out. It is interesting that, despite trailing in so many games, Dallas maintained a fairly balanced attack in 2004. So I'll call this a push and assume that the mix of plays will stay approximately the same year-over-year.
In TOP, Dallas manage to hold the ball slightly longer (30:37) than its opponents (29:23). The average Dallas game contained 122.75 plays from scrimmage, of which Dallas averaged 62.75 to the opponent's 60. There is the possibility that an improved Dallas defense could swing this result to the Cowboys' favor if the offense doesn't regress. In 2003, the highly-ranked defense and the ball-control offense held opponents to just over 56 plays per game, but the offense managed only about 1.3 plays more per game (64.06). As a result, I won't give credit for more than about 2 more plays on offense here - call it one pass attempt. Such an improvement would get Bledsoe close to the 33 attempts per game that he would need at his career best 7.55 ypa.
In conclusion, unless the game plans change, Bledsoe will have to play as well as he's ever played - if not better - to accomplish a 4000 yard season. It would truly be a pleasant surprise.
Assume that Bledsoe posts 8 yards per attempt, which is an unusually good result - typically among a QB's career years with the exception of an elite few (Young, Montana, Manning, Warner) who have posted such a number multiple times.
To acheive 4000 yards, Bledsoe would have to attempt 500 passes - that's over 31 attempts a game. In 2004, Dallas QB's attempted 513 passes, so it could happen if Bledsoe and the team plays lights out.
Suppose Bledsoe's ypa is equivalent to his best season - 7.55 ypa. Then he would need to attempt 530 passes, averaging over 33 a game. This is still within the realm of possibility; it's only one more attempt per game than 2004.
Suppose his ypa is closer to his career average - 6.58 ypa. Then he would have to attempt 608 passes - 38 per game. I don't see this happening.
There are two other competing factors that will influence Bledsoe's attempts - offensive balance and time of possession.
In 2004, Dallas QB's attempted 513 passes to 418 rushes by RB's and FB's. This is about 55% passing to 45% rushing. That is a pretty balanced attack in today's NFL, but I could see it shift more towards the running game. In 2003, Dallas ran the ball 436 times (46%) to 507 passes (54%). I doubt any team will rush more than it passes over an entire season. Note that I have excluded reverses, QB runs, and trick passes in this analysis. Including them skews the stats towards the running game. In 2003, including these statistics would give more running plays than passes because of Quincy Carter, but I have no way to determine which of Quincy's 68 rushes were designed runs and which were designed passes, so I left them out. It is interesting that, despite trailing in so many games, Dallas maintained a fairly balanced attack in 2004. So I'll call this a push and assume that the mix of plays will stay approximately the same year-over-year.
In TOP, Dallas manage to hold the ball slightly longer (30:37) than its opponents (29:23). The average Dallas game contained 122.75 plays from scrimmage, of which Dallas averaged 62.75 to the opponent's 60. There is the possibility that an improved Dallas defense could swing this result to the Cowboys' favor if the offense doesn't regress. In 2003, the highly-ranked defense and the ball-control offense held opponents to just over 56 plays per game, but the offense managed only about 1.3 plays more per game (64.06). As a result, I won't give credit for more than about 2 more plays on offense here - call it one pass attempt. Such an improvement would get Bledsoe close to the 33 attempts per game that he would need at his career best 7.55 ypa.
In conclusion, unless the game plans change, Bledsoe will have to play as well as he's ever played - if not better - to accomplish a 4000 yard season. It would truly be a pleasant surprise.
Trophy#6
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I totally think he can pass for 4000 yards and that it doesn't spell "DOOM" in Big D. That's 250 yard average a game, of course he can do that and our running game setting him up to do that will be a big part of it. Maybe I see Parcells different then most of you, but I see him using the running game to set up the passing game. It's like run-run-run-run-bomb, hitting them for 20+ yards in a chunk. BP likes to pass alot more then people give him credit for. With the proper tools in place, Bill will use them. 250 yards a game passing is nothing, especially when you have a compitant quarterback tossing that pigskin for a change. Then also lets not forget that this is Bill's QB, the best he's ever had at the position- I highly expect him to use Drew aLOT. Hell, if the guy can have faith in Quincy and Vinny in back2back years, the sky is the limit for a guy like Drew Bledsoe.
As for the question of "speculation" brought up by alot...well, it's speculation on your parts to think the running game will be the sole focus and that our defense will control the game so all we have to do is run the clock by running the ball alot. The "kettle" and the "pot" can both be black, usually are- nobody knows at this point.
As for the question of "speculation" brought up by alot...well, it's speculation on your parts to think the running game will be the sole focus and that our defense will control the game so all we have to do is run the clock by running the ball alot. The "kettle" and the "pot" can both be black, usually are- nobody knows at this point.
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Witten.DLCassidy said:I don't see that guy on the roster. Am I missing something?
And since I'm not sure how good Bledsoe is about leading the receivers to get that extra YAC, I have no idea about anybody else. I just think Witten can dominate whoever's covering him.
!!!
ravidubey
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kmd24 said:
This is on the money.
Again, if we shoot for 4000 and wind up just under that number I think we will be balanced given the running backs we have and BP's love of the run. I think it's vital that an offense remains up to the task regardless of how it is challenged. Nothing builds confidence more than being able to dictate on offense, and confidence wins Superbowls. How else can you explain New England winning the Superbowl in a season where they had literally nobody at cornerback?
Yakuza Rich
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There's a definite possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Parcells has only had a QB pass for over 4,000 yards three times before. Phil Simms in '84 and Bledsoe in '94 & '96.
The thing is that when everybody talks about being in favor of Bledsoe, they talk about his success with Parcells. In '96 Bledsoe barely threw for over 4,000 yards. To do that, the Patriots got:
1,150 receiving yards from their tailbacks and fullbacks.
2,125 receiving yards from their Wide Receivers
682 yards from their Tight End, Ben Coates.
In 2003, Glenn got 754 yards receiving. Keyshawn got 981 yards receiving last year. Thus, we'd have to get about 400 yards receiving from the other receiver. Let's say either Morgan, Crayton or Copper are the slot receiver and average 14.0 yards a catch.....they'd have to have around 28 catches to make up that amount.
Where we will probably get hurt the most is in the running backs/fullbacks. We simply are not a good screen play team. In 1996, Meggett and Martin combined for 625 receiving yards on 79 catches.
Now....I think Julius has the ability to become a good pass receiver, but last year he pretty much stunk in that area. So now we are hoping that we can get around 79 catches from a 2nd year back who stunk last year as a receiver, a 5th year back who has never been known for his receiving skills (A-Train), and another rookie tailback.
Combine that with the fact the fullbacks for the Patriots in 1996 (Sam Gash and Keith Byars) combined for 60 catches for 525 yards........we are more unlikely to do that since Gash and Byars were better than Lousaka Polite and Darien Barnes.
One of the big factors to make the 4,000 yard milestone possible would have to be the play of the tight ends. Witten had 980 yards receiving last year. But, the most Campbell has ever had was 195 yards.
So, the real key to me is that they'll have to get production out of the 3rd receiver, get big time improvement from the runningbacks & fullbacks, and hope that Witten only gets even better than last season (which isn't exactly easy to do).
Lastly, Bledsoe's most recent season of throwing for over 4,000 yards was in 2002. In that period the AFC teams New England, Miami, and the Jets finished 14th, 2nd, and 24th in adjusted sack ratio respectively.
Last season, the Skins, Eagles, and Giants finished 18th, 8th, and 5th in that category respectively.
MY CONCLUSION
Bledsoe should be better than Testaverde who threw for over 3,500 yards last season. The offense should be better as they have a healthy Julius, Glenn, and Campbell to utilize. But with that, I'm sure that Parcells will want to keep a balanced offense.
My guess is that Bledsoe will throw for about 3,750 yards and we should be very happy with that considering how little they are paying him.
Rich.......
Parcells has only had a QB pass for over 4,000 yards three times before. Phil Simms in '84 and Bledsoe in '94 & '96.
The thing is that when everybody talks about being in favor of Bledsoe, they talk about his success with Parcells. In '96 Bledsoe barely threw for over 4,000 yards. To do that, the Patriots got:
1,150 receiving yards from their tailbacks and fullbacks.
2,125 receiving yards from their Wide Receivers
682 yards from their Tight End, Ben Coates.
In 2003, Glenn got 754 yards receiving. Keyshawn got 981 yards receiving last year. Thus, we'd have to get about 400 yards receiving from the other receiver. Let's say either Morgan, Crayton or Copper are the slot receiver and average 14.0 yards a catch.....they'd have to have around 28 catches to make up that amount.
Where we will probably get hurt the most is in the running backs/fullbacks. We simply are not a good screen play team. In 1996, Meggett and Martin combined for 625 receiving yards on 79 catches.
Now....I think Julius has the ability to become a good pass receiver, but last year he pretty much stunk in that area. So now we are hoping that we can get around 79 catches from a 2nd year back who stunk last year as a receiver, a 5th year back who has never been known for his receiving skills (A-Train), and another rookie tailback.
Combine that with the fact the fullbacks for the Patriots in 1996 (Sam Gash and Keith Byars) combined for 60 catches for 525 yards........we are more unlikely to do that since Gash and Byars were better than Lousaka Polite and Darien Barnes.
One of the big factors to make the 4,000 yard milestone possible would have to be the play of the tight ends. Witten had 980 yards receiving last year. But, the most Campbell has ever had was 195 yards.
So, the real key to me is that they'll have to get production out of the 3rd receiver, get big time improvement from the runningbacks & fullbacks, and hope that Witten only gets even better than last season (which isn't exactly easy to do).
Lastly, Bledsoe's most recent season of throwing for over 4,000 yards was in 2002. In that period the AFC teams New England, Miami, and the Jets finished 14th, 2nd, and 24th in adjusted sack ratio respectively.
Last season, the Skins, Eagles, and Giants finished 18th, 8th, and 5th in that category respectively.
MY CONCLUSION
Bledsoe should be better than Testaverde who threw for over 3,500 yards last season. The offense should be better as they have a healthy Julius, Glenn, and Campbell to utilize. But with that, I'm sure that Parcells will want to keep a balanced offense.
My guess is that Bledsoe will throw for about 3,750 yards and we should be very happy with that considering how little they are paying him.
Rich.......