I'm trying to think of the last really athletic 1st round QB that flamed out in the NFL. Maybe Paxton Lynch? Meanwhile, we've seen all kinds of super-toolsy QBs succeed despite any number of question marks in college. Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Mahomes.... The NFL's increasing transition into sandlot 8 on 8 football rewards raw tools and mitigates any concerns about playing in structure.
If anything, the "pro-style" QBs who play inside of structure look like a FAR higher risk than the unpolished athletes. Rosen and Haskins were both 100% structure QBs and flamed out incredibly hard, Darnold sucks (in fairness, Adam Gase is one of football's biggest mitigating factors). Mayfield may have turned a corner, but IMO, he is going to be a Kirk Cousins type QB who looks good playing good offenses and bad on bad offenses. Etc.
Basically with Lance, I just need to see the Cam Newton-esque physical tools and need to see one season showing he's got any sort of game, and if those check out, then he's a first rounder.