Twitter: Cavanaugh: Penalties Against Cowboys are Hogwash

[ESisback]

On one end of the spectrum, it’s a GIANT LEAGUE WIDE CONSPIRACY, replete with obscenely wealthy owners plotting their evil machinations in a smoke-filled backroom in a high roller poker game. The plan? Take out the Cowboys!

On the other end of the spectrum...malfeasance doesn’t exist. Everything bad that happens to Dallas is because of their own incompetence, and anyone that believes otherwise wears a tinfoil hat.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

1) Much of the failures of the Dallas Cowboys is their own doing.
2)Like any team, calls go for AND against us.
3)The Cowboys bring the ratings.
4)Like any other sport or business enterprise, when so much money is involved, malfeasance is always present.
5)The Cowboys have the largest fan base, but also the most people that hate them.
6)The Cowboys aren’t the MOST penalized, but the timing of the subjective, gamechanging flags are consistently suspicious.

Like I keep saying, the lines are VERY blurred, and the outside influences are subtle, legal and indirect. I believe they can ride the Cowboy rating$ machine into the playoffs. Many will tune in to see them win, many more will gleefully enjoy an epic failure, and the ratings will be huge even if the Cowboys are gone, because:
1)Ratings are always higher for conference championships and the Super Bowl.
2)Patriots, Steelers and Saints are consistently popular. Add in exciting new blood like KC, the Rams, and Chicago, and sprinkle in Cowboy drama (coaching changes, player drama), big commercials, movie announcements and giveaways, and interest will be through the roof.

 

[HungryLion]

So far I see video of Zeke doing it. As I said, I don't pay attention to other games that closely to see if that wasn't called or a chop block wasn't called. If it happens every game then surely there's one of our opponent doing it to us. That'd be easy enough to find to back one's claim I'd think. Surprised no one pulled a play from that same Philly game to prove Zeke got "robbed."

1. If you don’t play attention to other games in the NFL, then clearly you shouldn’t be arguing one way or another on the state of refereeing around the league and how games are or aren’t officiated.

2. I am not a district attorney. I don’t feel the need to collect evidence to prove the point to you. If you want to feign ignorance on something as common as a running back lowering their shoulder into contact, then that’s your prerogative.

 

[MarcusRock]

You are not going to get a smoking gun if that's what you are looking for

But others think they have it. Lack of holding calls on opponents right after Jerry said some unflattering things about Goodell. Airtight.

The Cowboys penalized 88 times their opponents only 69, the fewest for any team in the league. The next closest team is 77. That's a 10% difference. This in and of itself is not a fingerprint or DNA at the crime scene, but it is circumstantial evidence.

Evidence of what is the question? What if it's because most penalties occur on offense and because Dallas plays ball control offense with the league's leading rusher, opposing offenses have less chances in games against us vs. other teams? In that case, they'd be less likely to have penalties called against them if they're not a ball control offense, wouldn't they? Have those numbers been run to rule that out? People are taking 1/32nd swaths of data and making them into grand scheme universals.

Do I think the refs are deliberately calling penalties on Dallas and not on other teams? I have no proof of that. What I do know is that an extremely low number of penalties called against opponents is statistical evidence of something.

See above. But also how long is the evidence period? Are we just talking a stretch of games this year, last year, a running 5-year total, 10 years? the Cowboys have played 896 games in their history (510-380-6, by the way) and we take a stretch of 7 or 8 games or even a full season to make grand conclusions? Again, you can do that for any team which means we're leaving out 31/32nds of the story. I know we're fans of this team so that's what we concentrate on, but data can't be analyzed apart from every other statistical trend we aren't aware of and know a story for sure.

Does anyone dispute that certain QBs get the calls while others don't? That some basketball never get called for charging fouls? That some pitchers get a wider strike zone from certain umpires? Can't prove any of it, but we all know it happens. So why is it so hard to believe that Cowboys don't get the breaks from some of the refs, maybe even most of the refs, that other teams get?

Honestly, I think most of these are urban legends made up by emotional fans that become truth once repeated. Like how Joe Buck allegedly hates every team according to fans when he broadcasts their teams' games. Same as the holding stats that get thrown around here that are actually just drilled-down statistical anomalies to perpetuate "Cowboys are victims" stories because they sell. The surface aggregates actually show nothing odd at all. You can find anything off if you drill down. Ask Detroit about holding calls this year.

 

[MarcusRock]

6)The Cowboys aren’t the MOST penalized, but the timing of the subjective, gamechanging flags are consistently suspicious.

Compared to which teams' games that you watch every week? Maybe all teams get timely, subjective, game changing flags. Again, 1/32nds of a story.

 

[MarcusRock]

1. If you don’t play attention to other games in the NFL, then clearly you shouldn’t be arguing one way or another on the state of refereeing around the league and how games are or aren’t officiated.

2. I am not a district attorney. I don’t feel the need to collect evidence to prove the point to you. If you want to feign ignorance on something as common as a running back lowering their shoulder into contact, then that’s your prerogative.

In other words, there are none to show but I should just take your word for it that there are some that take place in every game, even in our games by our opponents. Can't actually name any specifically to narrow it down, mind you. Just keep it nice and hazy like conspiracy theorists like it. Never need to prove anything.

 

[Don Corleone]

Right? It defies logic.

Cowboys = ratings
Ratings help pad Network deals, which is where the NFL makes their bread and butter
Cowboys in the playoffs = more ratings for more weeks to get more bread and butter

"But nah, let's screw the Cowboys because we hate yucky money. That's not our intent at all. We just want to showcase gladiators of the gridiron and make people happy .... except Cowboys fans"

The issue has been the other 31 owners wanting to screw the Cowboys by using the commish as the puppet. Look no further than the Zeke suspension and ask yourself why things were so different versus the recent Kareem Hunt situation. The other owners wanted Zeke suspended and the commissioner obliged. The Cowboys were seemingly on the cusp of something special with two rookies leading the offense and the other 31 owners were quaking in their boots.

 

[MarcusRock]

The issue has been the other 31 owners wanting to screw the Cowboys by using the commish as the puppet. Look no further than the Zeke suspension and ask yourself why things were so different versus the recent Kareem Hunt situation. The other owners wanted Zeke suspended and the commissioner obliged. The Cowboys were seemingly on the cusp of something special with two rookies leading the offense and the other 31 owners were quaking in their boots.

Okay.

 

[Ddisco22]

well JJ agreeing will certainly raise the bar for the refs to make sure that there are extra ones called now

That sounds about right

 

[HungryLion]

In other words, there are none to show but I should just take your word for it that there are some that take place in every game, even in our games by our opponents. Can't actually name any specifically to narrow it down, mind you. Just keep it nice and hazy like conspiracy theorists like it. Never need to prove anything.

1. I never mentioned anything about a conspiracy at any point. So now you’re just spinning things. I’m not talking about an anti cowboys conspiracy. I’m saying they never called that on offensive players yet. Despite the fact it’s a common football act.

2. If you need video evidence to prove the point that it’s a common football act, for running backs to lower their shoulders into contact, then it tells me you don’t know Jack squat about football and how football is played.

 

[HungryLion]

 

[MarcusRock]

1. I never mentioned anything about a conspiracy at any point. So now you’re just spinning things. I’m not talking about an anti cowboys conspiracy. I’m saying they never called that on offensive players yet. Despite the fact it’s a common football act.

2. If you need video evidence to prove the point that it’s a common football act, for running backs to lower their shoulders into contact, then it tells me you don’t know Jack squat about football and how football is played.

It's a common football act to brace for contact by putting your head down, yes. It's not common to run back towards a guy and aim your head down at him at an angle that runs into him, which is what Zeke did. He didn't brace, he attacked. Watch again. It's clearly the right call. What you can debate is whether it's called consistently IF other runners take this action. That's what I'm asking for. If you can cite even 1 from a recent Cowboys game, I'll go and pull the video myself and post it. Just cite 1 instance. No need to be a D.A., just give me a name.

 

[Kaiser]

But others think they have it. Lack of holding calls on opponents right after Jerry said some unflattering things about Goodell. Airtight.

Show me a single post that said it was airtight or there was a smoking gun. I'll wait.

Most crimes like Insider Trading don't have a smoking gun, because noone in the history of anything ever sent an email or something to document the act.

And Jerry didn't "say unflattering things" about Goodell, he vetoed a contract worth 200 Million dollars and threatened to hold it up in Court if necessary. The fact you won't say that is either disingenous or flat out lying.

 

[HungryLion]

There are even videos of the best RB trucks in NFL history.

Madden football even had the “truck stick” as a move you could do with your running back. Because it’s been such a part of the game for so long.

So again, like I said before. It’s a dumb rule, and it isn’t being evenly implement by the refs considering it’s been called once all season and it happens very frequently in the league. Some would even say it’s part of running with the football.

 

[Kaiser]

Compared to which teams' games that you watch every week? Maybe all teams get timely, subjective, game changing flags. Again, 1/32nds of a story.

Which is exactly why we posted Percy's stats. They compare all 32 teams over time. That is exactly why the field of statistical analysis exists, not that you will ever get that.

 

[HungryLion]

How about the video I posted with Rashad Penny? He could have easily went out of bounds. Instead he chose to lower his head and nail the defender.

There’s your one example.

 

[MarcusRock]

That is bracing, not running back towards the guy to spear him. Zeke's guy didn't launch at him like the DB did for Penny. We don't even know if the Philly DB was going to wrap up or what because Zeke initiated the contact first.

 

[HungryLion]

It's a common football act to brace for contact by putting your head down, yes. It's not common to run back towards a guy and aim your head down at him at an angle that runs into him, which is what Zeke did. He didn't brace, he attacked. Watch again. It's clearly the right call. What you can debate is whether it's called consistently IF other runners take this action. That's what I'm asking for. If you can cite even 1 from a recent Cowboys game, I'll go and pull the video myself and post it. Just cite 1 instance. No need to be a D.A., just give me a name.

I never said it wasn’t the right call. Not once did I say that.

I said it’s a dumb rule (my opinion) and that runners do it all the time (not my opinion, a fact) but this is the first time it was called all season.

Neither of those two statements mean the call was wrong.

 

[HungryLion]

That is bracing, not running back towards the guy to spear him.

You’re full of crap if that’s your interpretation.

Very full of crap.

Penny had every chance to just get out of bounds. He CHOSE to lower his head and nail the defender.

The video is clear as day in showing that.

 

[MarcusRock]

You’re full of crap if that’s your interpretation.

Very full of crap.

Penny had every chance to just get out of bounds. He CHOSE to lower his head and nail the defender.

The video is clear as day in showing that.

He doesn't have to get out of bounds. He's allowed to stay in just like Zeke was. As I said in the other thread, if Zeke continues to go straight and throws a shoulder, he probably wouldn't have gotten flagged. But he changed directions to target the guy and speared down at him with his helmet. That was unnecessary. The Arizona DB launched at Penny and already had his back towards him at the moment of impact. Those are totally different actions by the DB. You saying they aren't? THAT would be full of crap.

 

[Kaiser]

The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

1) Much of the failures of the Dallas Cowboys is their own doing.
2)Like any team, calls go for AND against us.
3)The Cowboys bring the ratings.
4)Like any other sport or business enterprise, when so much money is involved, malfeasance is always present.
5)The Cowboys have the largest fan base, but also the most people that hate them.
6)The Cowboys aren’t the MOST penalized, but the timing of the subjective, gamechanging flags are consistently suspicious.

Great post. This year I think a bunch of things contribute but we still are in the noise and not the signal. Last year it was obviously a pattern and the stats and the timing bear that out.

But I would add #7 to your list of why the calls are out of whack this year (for all teams). The NFL is trying (poorly) to implement a bunch of new tickytack rules for player safety. That (or the fact its a make up call) are why we get laughable calls like Randy Gregory being flagged for roughing the passer for having Wentz by the thighs.