I think that’s a microcosm of the volatility of both the TDs allowed and interceptions accrued stats for CB position. If Diggs gives up 5 TDs next year, did he have a worse season? Not really, there may have just been a few more “incredible” catches. If he has only 5 interceptions next year, does that mean he’s not as good anymore? The media may paint it that way, but it’s not entirely fair. There are a myriad of circumstances surrounding the entire defense that result in a QB throwing a football inaccurately or with poor decisiveness. Micah’s pass rush; the safety’s disguise; Anthony Brown’s coverage on the other receiver. Any small disruption to the opportunities Diggs is getting can heavily reduce his final total… regardless of whether or he he deserved it.
So what does that say? At the end of the day, a CB’s job is to play his role in the defense in preventing the ball from getting pushed upfield through the air. In my opinion, yards allowed is a more consistently definable stat to a CB’s play than interceptions, TDs allowed, even passes defended. There can be much more context to this stat of course, such as safety help/how long he’s on an island by himself/who he’s covering in a given circumstance.
Interceptions are a tremendously fickle stat, even if the CB has all world hands and anticipation:
The last guy to have more than 11 INTs was Lester Hayes. His second biggest season was 7, and his third most was 4.
Last guy to even get 11 was Everson Walls. He never had double digit again. Took him 5 years to even get 9 again, and 11 of his other 12 years he had half or less of his 11 count.
Last guy to have 10 was Xavier Howard in 2020, and he followed it up with 5 last year. Guy before that was Antonio Chromartie, and his second highest season was 4. The next most recent guy to have double digit was Champ Bailey, and he only had 1 other season where he had more than 5.
It’s perfectly possible Diggs does it again, but of all the things to bet on not happening in 2021, that one blows everything else away in terms of historical probability.
