superonyx
Well-Known Member
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But arent most NFL games decided by a score or less. This is why if you look at the point spreads its typically 1-7 point spreads.It's true, and there are also probably different, team-specific reasons that it's true.
Last year, this team was very conservative on offense for three quarters, then attacked in the 4th. This year, the team is aggressive from the beginning of games, so the dramatic change of styles in the 4th quarter is gone. The result is more blowout wins and more close losses. Last year, 14 of our 18 games were decided by one score or less. This year, 9 of our 12 games have been double-digit wins or close losses.
When the aggressive style is working, we build big leads and eventually win. When it isn't working as well, the game is (usually) close in the 4th, but we no longer have the option of flipping the switch to attack mode since we're already there. And by then, defenses have adjusted to what we've been doing all game long.
Target 15+ yards
(as a percentage of total attempts)
2018
Qtr 1-3 only
12.4%
4th qtr tied or trailing by 8 or less
26.0%
2019
Qtr 1-3 only
20.5%
4th qtr tied or trailing by 8 or less
20.4%
The deeper throws were our ace in the hole in 2018, but this year we've already played that card by the time we're in the 4th quarter.
The difference between 12-4 and 4-12 is typically winning or losing the games decided by 1 score or less.