Cowboys approach to off-season remains consistent

[buybuydandavis]

Over the past decade (actually ever since 2008), the Cowboys approach to the offseason has been remarkably consistent. After years of overreaching for top name free agents, Jerry began ceding some personnel power to Stephen Jones. More importantly, the Cowboys dumped Larry Lacewell, who could be described as the architect of the Cowboys 2 decades of mediocrity.

And there approach has been this: Sign low level players at positions of need to short-term contracts, and then draft at that same positions for long-term upgrades. So, if you want to know which positions the Cowboys will target in the draft, take a look at the players they've recently signed to 1-2 year deals.

Positions the Cowboys will likely be targeting in the draft:

• TE - Jason Witten and Cody McElroy signed to 1 year deals.
• WR-slot - Tavon Austin signed to a 1-year deal, plus the Cowboys picked up the 2nd year option for Allen Hurns.
• DT - Christian Covington and Daniel Ross signed to 1 year deals
• S - Darian Thompson signed to 1 year contract
• OLB - Justin March-Lillard signed to 1 year contract & Sean Lee negotiates pay-cut for final year on his contract.
• DE - DeMarcus Lawrence given franchise tag - if the Cowboys are unable to come to terms with Lawrence before the draft, this might also be a position they target.

Positions the Cowboys will likely not be looking for in the draft:

• OT - Cameron Fleming signed to 2 year contract
• FB - Jamize Olawale signed to 3 year contract

The Cowboys like to double dip at positions of need by signing a short term gap player, and drafting for the long-term. Anyone paying attention over the last decade can see that the Cowboys telegraph their draft intentions with their free agent signings. That doesn't preclude the team from drafting a talented player that falls in the draft.

Recent examples of this strategy:

• 2018 - Cowboys sign Joe Thomas, and draft Leighton Vander Esch
• 2018 - Cowboys sign Marcus Martin, and draft Connor Williams

Keep an eye out for more short-term signings as a key to who the Cowboys are looking to draft in April.

We should distinguish between vested/prevested vets.

We signed Ross to a 1 year deal, but I think that was just his ERFA contract. He'll be RFA in 2020 too. He's not a stop gap bridge, he's a decent young guy we have for peanuts.

We should also distinguish the vested vets based on guaranteed money. AFAIK, both Hurns and Cameron have no guaranteed money coming, meaning that they are a free look. If anything, I'd expect the team to be *more* interested in drafting a replacement than if they had some guaranteed money going to them.

Particularly Fleming. 4.5mil for backup oline? Ugh. I expect they're very interested in getting that off the books. Maybe they're worried about Tyron, and think they might need a starter at the start of the season.

On TE, I don't see more picks. We already have our young developmental picks in Jarwin and Schulz. And Rico. And Cody. Witten is a bridge while they get up to speed.

Covington looks like a standard bridge for depth. Cheap but not minimum, with enough guaranteed money to make it worth his while should we dump him for younger guys.

Austin looks more like a "starter role player". I haven't seen the details of the contract yet, but I expect he gets a chunk guaranteed.

FA Types
Unvested Vets - Young and cheap. Sign for use and development, depending on vesting schedule.
Vested Vets, no/lo gtd money - Free tryout. Still looking in free agency for a significant role, may just be depth.
Vested Vets, significant chunk gtd - We plan on keeping him for a significant role, meaning a draft pick is likely to fill that significant role.
Vested Vets, Real Money - keep dreaming!

The mystery to me this year is Olawale. We didn't use him last year for squat, and now we're guaranteeing about a year and a half for a guy in his 30s.

 

[Kaiser]

And we might have a chance at the playoffs again. It's that all you want?

What I want is not having to read idiotic posts like the last five years have been "consistently bad". We have one of the youngest teams in the league with a young core of very talented players, there is more than "might have a chance" of going to the playoffs again.

Can you show me a team that won the Super Bowl without building that kind of core first? And the Commanders have done a fantastic job of throwing money at free agents, how many playoff games have they won recently?

 

[Kaiser]

Ah yes the homer nation is strong. 23 years and counting...

Clown post from a clown poster. Only Whiner Nation would call the last five years "consistently bad".

 

[Diehardblues]

Always interesting to read Jumbos take on FA and the draft coming up. Jumbo is one of the most informative and attention to detail is impeccable on Salary Cap despite his sometimes overly optimistic view. Such is the life of an Engineer who often sees the beauty of the structure above the reality of the results although this analysis appears to be one of much sounder ground and expectations.

While he did address the concerns with our Redzone offense in passing attack correctly with the loss of Dez and Witten he didn’t offer many resolutions with the Receiving Corp we currently have beyond hoping Moore might offer some improved schemes.

I’d hope bringing Witten back will aide somewhat in Redzone offense. And he didn’t offer any indication Dak will improve with his reads and accuracy in Redzone. Our QB is our greatest handicap in this part of the field. The fact his legs provide his best weapon tells defenses all they need to know.

And our concerns on DL were pretty well dismissed as merely being challenged . If we don’t have a pass rush despite the talent we’ve added in secondary and at LB it could take a step back.

But I do agree with his otherwise evaluation of the years we were more serious contenders while not necessarily agreeing we are as talented across the board while the higher draft picks on paper might support as such. Which doesn’t bring into account their injury plaqued history like on OL which while it could be a strength as in previous years it might not be pending their status throughout the season.

He got last years evaluation of our offense right when he said he couldn’t stand to watch it until we traded for Cooper. And while he didn’t include 2018 squad with the greater contenders we had in 2007, 2014 and 2016( which I agree again) he still sees this as a very talented roster which should contend?

In most areas I’d agree. The two areas on defense which could hold us back is DL and S. On offense our passing game while improved with Cooper and hopefully Witten was still bottom tier and rock bottom in Redzone. These areas must improve with a tougher schedule this year. We shall see. Thanks Jumbo. Good stuff as always. Nice to see you back.

 

[Falco78]

We are the most popular team in the league, no need to change anything, right

Not at all Jerrah!

 

[Blackspider214]

The not going deep in the playoss is consistent too.

Exactly. Just because you are consistent does not mean that is a good thing if the results are consistently bad. Change up your approach if the results are not what you want. Unless they are content with being mediocre, which might be the case.

 

[bsbellomy]

That is all every team wants. The regular season is irrelevant. You get a chance at a super bowl by getting a playoff spot.

In the salary cap era, how do you get as many chances as possible? You build a team through the draft, development, and smart contracts.

When you bring in high priced FA's you sacrifice depth on the roster. So there is a balance you have to maintain. The FA has to be worth it, because you lose your well drafted guys. (Cooper was risky and expensive, but worth the risk) This team has rebuilt the offense and defense and is starting to get depth. They have their new core, and will have them all signed in the next few years. In this regard, i think they look better than the other three teams in the division.

I think they have the best chance to win the NFC east consistently for the next four or five years (maybe more). This raises their percentage at a super bowl.

Disagree 100%. Once you know you have a playoff caliber team you pull out all the stops to separate yourself from the others. Why? Because winning 1 super bowl is worth 10 years of being bad. No one remembers teams that consistently make the playoffs and lose.

 

[GMO415]

We are a talented team. We really don't have to add much. IF Hurns and Austin can stay health, they easily replace Bease.

If we had a true HC, we should be in the SB mix.

 

[LatinMind]

It’s consistent for sure. Consistently bad. You would think these idiots would try to change it up but alas the goal is not winning. The goal is selling.

How do u explain the 2nd most wins with this specific team?

 

[cern]

We should distinguish between vested/prevested vets.

We signed Ross to a 1 year deal, but I think that was just his ERFA contract. He'll be RFA in 2020 too. He's not a stop gap bridge, he's a decent young guy we have for peanuts.

We should also distinguish the vested vets based on guaranteed money. AFAIK, both Hurns and Cameron have no guaranteed money coming, meaning that they are a free look. If anything, I'd expect the team to be *more* interested in drafting a replacement than if they had some guaranteed money going to them.

Particularly Fleming. 4.5mil for backup oline? Ugh. I expect they're very interested in getting that off the books. Maybe they're worried about Tyron, and think they might need a starter at the start of the season.

On TE, I don't see more picks. We already have our young developmental picks in Jarwin and Schulz. And Rico. And Cody. Witten is a bridge while they get up to speed.

Covington looks like a standard bridge for depth. Cheap but not minimum, with enough guaranteed money to make it worth his while should we dump him for younger guys.

Austin looks more like a "starter role player". I haven't seen the details of the contract yet, but I expect he gets a chunk guaranteed.

FA Types
Unvested Vets - Young and cheap. Sign for use and development, depending on vesting schedule.
Vested Vets, no/lo gtd money - Free tryout. Still looking in free agency for a significant role, may just be depth.
Vested Vets, significant chunk gtd - We plan on keeping him for a significant role, meaning a draft pick is likely to fill that significant role.
Vested Vets, Real Money - keep dreaming!

The mystery to me this year is Olawale. We didn't use him last year for squat, and now we're guaranteeing about a year and a half for a guy in his 30s.

Perhaps Keller Moore sees more used for him.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Perhaps Keller Moore sees more used for him.

[Olawale]
I saw more use for him. But we didn't use him.

I've wondered this about Linehan. We brought in personnel like Olawale and Austin who I was excited about as complements to the run game with Zeke, but we just didn't use them. I was hoping for 20 personnel as our base. Instead we tended toward 12, putting our weakest position group on the field, the TEs, and putting them out there plenty.

It seems like Linehan just wasn't on the same page with the guys bringing in players, and the rest of the staff must have liked what they saw to bring them back for another season despite the lack of use.

I'm still puzzled by how much we paid and guaranteed to Olawale. Particularly after last year, I'd expect him to have 0 chance to get the contract we gave him.

 

[dsturgeon]

Disagree 100%. Once you know you have a playoff caliber team you pull out all the stops to separate yourself from the others. Why? Because winning 1 super bowl is worth 10 years of being bad. No one remembers teams that consistently make the playoffs and lose.

I think that is proven false year after year. That is more of a strategy when you know you are going to have to do a total rebuild.

They are signing all the core positions in the next few years, and they will be locked up for awhile.

Pulling out all the stops is something you do when you know you are on your last leg of the player run and heading into a rebuild, or it is a gaurentee of a superbo l If they play it smart they can stay competitive for many years, because of how they hit on so many draft picks.

2016 draft put the cowboys in a unique situation. They drafted the number one rb in the league, their franchise qb in the 4th round, and what could become the best mlb'er in the league. If Collins stays healthy he might improve his stock some. Byron jones drafted the year before was one of the top corners last year, and drafted the year before him is one of the better de's in the league. And they used this years first round pick on a wr they will need to sign, who is also in the top of the league.

So your qb, rb, mlb, corner, de, and wr who are all towards the top of the league, have their contracts coming due in 2-3 years. That is a core you want to play smart with, play it as a 4 year run, and if you need to go all in, do it at the end of that. I think they will keep hitting on drafts though.

 

[Diehardblues]

Disagree 100%. Once you know you have a playoff caliber team you pull out all the stops to separate yourself from the others. Why? Because winning 1 super bowl is worth 10 years of being bad. No one remembers teams that consistently make the playoffs and lose.

To fans maybe but not ownership.

The Super Bowl or Bust mentality isn’t one that keeps front office personnel and coaching staffs around.

 

[Diehardblues]

I think that is proven false year after year. That is more of a strategy when you know you are going to have to do a total rebuild.

They are signing all the core positions in the next few years, and they will be locked up for awhile.

Pulling out all the stops is something you do when you know you are on your last leg of the player run and heading into a rebuild, or it is a gaurentee of a superbo l If they play it smart they can stay competitive for many years, because of how they hit on so many draft picks.

2016 draft put the cowboys in a unique situation. They drafted the number one rb in the league, their franchise qb in the 4th round, and what could become the best mlb'er in the league. If Collins stays healthy he might improve his stock some. Byron jones drafted the year before was one of the top corners last year, and drafted the year before him is one of the better de's in the league. And they used this years first round pick on a wr they will need to sign, who is also in the top of the league.

So your qb, rb, mlb, corner, de, and wr who are all towards the top of the league, have their contracts coming due in 2-3 years. That is a core you want to play smart with, play it as a 4 year run, and if you need to go all in, do it at the end of that. I think they will keep hitting on drafts though.

Right!

Building a consistent contender provides you more opportunities to knock down the door while contnuing to add more talent and maintaining an entertaining product with less drama and turnover.

 

[ChuckA1]

Ah yes the homer nation is strong. 23 years and counting...

I've been a fan a lot longer than 23 years. There's been a lot of talk about the Cowboys being mediocre in this thread. That applies to some of the fans also.

 

[Captain-Crash]

hum. I thought this guy was through with the Cowboys after the thing

 

[JBond]

It’s consistent for sure. Consistently bad. You would think these idiots would try to change it up but alas the goal is not winning. The goal is selling.

You need a QB before going all in.

 

[Whyjerry]

How do u explain the 2nd most wins with this specific team?

NFL is all about the black playoffs. How has that record been?

 

[Idgit]

How do u explain the 2nd most wins with this specific team?

He’s going to say that only the playoff wins count.

 

[Captain-Crash]

yep they give participation trophies for wins. we've been winners for awhile now.