News: Dak Prescott: One of the NFL’s Most Accurate Deep Passers

[Bleu Star]

Dak has been chopping up haters since he was a kid. No big deal

No doubt. A very cool customer. Even amidst a sea of dangling chads.

 

[thinwhiteduke]

You have zero idea of anything about Dak and how he will play in his first playoff game. I have 16 weeks.

you have 16 weeks of sitting on your *** watching a guy get paid a million to run around and throw a ball. Neither of these things are a necessary skill in life nor prove anything about him or you.
what? Ive watched football too or I wouldnt have been able to come to my conclusions. I know the odds of him doing well are slim and none.

 

[Bleu Star]

you have 16 weeks of sitting on your *** watching a guy get paid a million to run around and throw a ball. Neither of these things are a necessary skill in life nor prove anything about him or you.
what? Ive watched football too or I wouldnt have been able to come to my conclusions. I know the odds of him doing well are slim and none.

I'll take my odds of watching 4 weeks of preseason and 16 weeks of dominant regular season success over your uhhhhh doubt.

 

[CWR]

disappear? no, they indicate proven trends. Rookies fail when it counts,Always have,always will. Wisdom and experience always/most of the damn time, win out.
aside from that,you as an adult should be able to grasp that. Stop acting like 5 year old at Christmas. You know in you logical head the Cowboys have zero to little chance of getting to the SB.
The kid has a 2 week layoff and too much time to think.

Thanks bro, now that I know rookies always/most of the time suck in the playoffs and we have ZERO to little chance of doing anything I can plan a nice playoff weekend without having to deal with all the football crap.

On the other hand we do have a historically great offensive line, the nfls leading rusher and a defense that seems to be peaking at just the right time.


Four rookies—Shaun King in 1999, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Joe Flacco in 2008 and Mark Sanchez in 2009—have led their teams to the conference title stage, only to fall short of making the Super Bowl. Like Wilson, those four quarterbacks relied on solid defense and a steady running game.

I know Dak is no Shaun King or Mark Sanchez but hell lets just hope against hope he can pull off a W. I mean hes not like EVERY other rookie qb is he?

Dallas’s Dak Prescott is the best rookie passer ever, at least if you buy into the NFL’s passer rating formula.

Prescott finished the regular season with a passer rating of 104.9. That’s the best passer rating for a rookie in NFL history, breaking the previous record of 102.4, set by Robert Griffin III in 2012.

With four interceptions in 459 pass attempts, Prescott also had the lowest interception percentage for a rookie in NFL history.

No one saw such a rookie year coming for Prescott, who was chosen in the fourth round of the NFL draft in the thought that he might some day develop into a successor to Tony Romo. When Romo got hurt, it was viewed as a catastrophe for the Cowboys’ 2016 season. The way Prescott has played turned that injury into a blessing in disguise.

You want to slow down the HOF nomination, cool but dont try to sell the we have no chance crap to me.

 

[Proof]

I have an immense amount of respect for Fuzzy but he surprises me sometimes.

Why?

 

[thinwhiteduke]

Four rookies—Shaun King in 1999, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Joe Flacco in 2008 and Mark Sanchez in 2009—have led their teams to the conference title stage, only to fall short of making the Super Bowl. Like Wilson, those four quarterbacks relied on solid defense and a steady running game.

you helped prove my point. Not take away from it. and lets be clear, Sanchez didnt lead anything lol he followed like a child and lost when it counted.
Rookies fail when all the marbles are on the table...its a really stupid thing to say lol but I did anyway...

what they relied on is meaningless. They still failed.

ok guys calm down. Dak isnt your brother. Just a jock you watch on tv. Its not like you need to defend his honor. He makes a million bucks to run around on a field and doesnt care about any of you.
I do think they might get there in a couple years..but not this year

 

[Bleu Star]

Why?

Cause

 

[joseephuss]

Watch this video...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2016121113/2016/REG14/cowboys@giants?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo|contentId:0ap3000000755580&tab=videos



I have to agree with Fuzzy. I love Dak, and you can blame the interception on Dez (as some have) but at the end of the day the play was:

1) a deep pass more than 20 yards
2) the closest defender was within 1 yard so it was tight coverage, and...
3) It was clearly intercepted.

That right there makes the last sentence of the article inaccurate.

As fuzzy said you can hype him, love that he is a Cowboy, and agree that he had the best rookie season of any QB in history, yet realize that he is not perfect and makes mistakes. This need to show him as infallible and shoot down anything that doesn't agree with that assessment is really unnecessary. He was good enough without it.



Yeah I don't get that either.

I've already watched that video. It is the only one of that play that I can find. It doesn't show how close the corner was to Dez when Dak launched the pass. It only shows how close they were when the ball arrived.

I'm not saying Fuzzy was wrong to bring up this play as an example that perhaps Nex Gen Stats missed a play. It is possible. I just don't see them as just making up stuff to be bias. The bias was the author of the article using a very narrowly defined stat to represent Dak's overall performance on deep throws. This stat was a small percentage of his overall deep passes and never mentioned his total number of deep passes he attempted and how that compares to other QBs. That isn't making up stuff. That is just manuplation at worst or a lack of understanding at best by the writer.

Dak has room for improvement. I'm glad for that. If he was already at his ceiling then I would be worried, but he has room to grow.

 

[CWR]

you helped prove my point. Not take away from it. and lets be clear, Sanchez didnt lead anything lol he followed like a child and lost when it counted.
Rookies fail when all the marbles are on the table...its a really stupid thing to say lol but I did anyway...

what they relied on is meaningless. They still failed.

ok guys calm down. Dak isnt your brother. Just a jock you watch on tv. Its not like you need to defend his honor. He makes a million bucks to run around on a field and doesnt care about any of you.
I do think they might get there in a couple years..but not this year

The point genius is that Dak isnt your typical rookie. Of course the odds are not in his favor as a rookie but Vegas and the people that make a living off of the odds have Dallas behind only the Pats to win it all. So thanks for your input however obnoxious it may be, but at the end of the day you're just another couch jockey so you can drop the absolutes.

 

[percyhoward]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2577417/dak-prescott

compare and contrast with the dink and dunker

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2573079/carson-wentz

That says Wentz has 10 more attempts than Dak at over 20 yards in the air, with 2 fewer completions. At over 30 yards, Wentz has 5 more attempts than Dak and the same number of completions.

It also says more than 70% of Wentz' passes are within 10 yards of the LOS, which is in the top 10 in the NFL for highest percentage of short passes.

Attempts at target distance (as a % of total att)
Prescott
<11 67.4%
11-20 23.1%
>20 9.5%

Wentz
<11 70.2%
11-20 20.4%
>20 9.4%

Passer rating at target distance
Prescott
<11 100.3
11-20 114.9
>20 113.9

Wentz
<11 83.2
11-20 79.9
>20 47.3

 

[Bigdog]

But wait. I heard it right here that Dak doesn't throw deep...

I heard that too and that qb from Philadelphia was so much better and we are going to rue the day we didn't trade up to go get him

 

[AdamJT13]

2) the closest defender was within 1 yard so it was tight coverage

If they are measuring it from when the pass was thrown, then no, the defender was not within 1 yard.

 

[joseephuss]

If they are measuring it from when the pass was thrown, then no, the defender was not within 1 yard.

Thanks. I have a feeling that is how they define tight coverage.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

That says Wentz has 10 more attempts than Dak at over 20 yards in the air, with 2 fewer completions. At over 30 yards, Wentz has 5 more attempts than Dak and the same number of completions.

It also says more than 70% of Wentz' passes are within 10 yards of the LOS, which is in the top 10 in the NFL for highest percentage of short passes.

Attempts at target distance (as a % of total att)
Prescott
<11 67.4%
11-20 23.1%
>20 9.5%

Wentz
<11 70.2%
11-20 20.4%
>20 9.4%

Passer rating at target distance
Prescott
<11 100.3
11-20 114.9
>20 113.9

Wentz
<11 83.2
11-20 79.9
>20 47.3

So the dink and dunker throws deep more than Dak.

I do like how you drown out the poor performance at over 30 yards though by just including all those intermediate throws too.

Have fun continuing to bias the stats in the most glowing way possible.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I don't think the person that tracks the stats does it with any bias. The person that references the stat may use it with a biased opinion. Hall, who intercepted the pass was not within a yard of Dez. I've only found one angle of the play and can't see how close the corner is to Dez when the ball is thrown. He looks to be within one yard when the ball arrives, but there may have been a bigger gap when the ball was actually thrown.

The bias by the reporter was using percentages of throws and failing to list where Dak ranks in total deep throws attempted as well as the number of deep attempts into tight coverage.

By setting parameters they are by definition biasing. Whether or not they do it with intent other than modeling reality remains to be seen.

The bottomline here is that if the stats are worse when the coverage is "not tight" which is what it is in this case then they really need to look at the their model. I'm not going to guess at their intent.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

its called kidding you pc queen

So if you insult someone but say you are kidding then that makes it okay? You ever seen Talladega Nights?

I dunno an apology is not really contrition if it's conditional on it being accepted. That is just vainglorious.

Just because you are trying to be funny doesn't mean it is not insulting at the same time. Quite the contrary when you are having fun at other's expense.

And don't give me any nonsense about PC. I'm not saying to treat this person this way and that person that. I'm just saying don't piss on people's legs and say it is raining expecting that they are going to like it.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Oh hey Fuzzy..

Sup man I cannot read this place nonstop. What specifically are we talking about here I am working my way through the responses.

 

[percyhoward]

Prescott and Brady ended up tied for the NFL's highest passer rating on throws of 15+ yards in the air, but even more impressive is this list below. It's throws of 15+ yards in the air when trailing in the game.

 

[joseephuss]

By setting parameters they are by definition biasing. Whether or not they do it with intent other than modeling reality remains to be seen.

The bottomline here is that if the stats are worse when the coverage is "not tight" which is what it is in this case then they really need to look at the their model. I'm not going to guess at their intent.

You already guessed at their intent when you said they were making stuff up to build up Dak. The parameters for those stats weren't set to make Dak specifically look good. Nor were they made up. Those are just the parameters. The writer is the one who took one set of stats, "tight coverage" and did not use "not tight" to prop up Dak. He is the one that manipulated(not made up) the data.

 

[AdamJT13]

The bottomline here is that if the stats are worse when the coverage is "not tight" which is what it is in this case then they really need to look at the their model.

All they were doing was looking at which quarterbacks threw most often into "tight coverage." They called it being "aggressive." Never mind that it might be just being stupid or unable to see the field if there are other receivers wide open. Note that very few of their top 10 "most aggressive" quarterbacks were among the best quarterbacks this season.