Dak Stat Pack (last 12 games)

[jterrell]

Who was missing in the first 3 weeks that would change the stats significantly?

The team shut it down in pre-season to protect against injury.
They also were pretty shell-shocked about TFred who made all the line calls; not to mention Pro Bowls.
They believed Deonte Thompson and Allen Hurns were Wr1 and Wr2 the first 3 weeks so their is also that.

 

[75boyz]

The problem with these “facts” is Passer rating isn’t a fact, it’s an interpretation of a bunch of facts. It’s a mathematical formula that is trying to quantify QB play to some number. Dak doesn’t throw close to as many passes as many of these QBs for example. He also checks down a lot when he has guys wide open and can get bigger chunks. None of these ratings capture what Dak leaves on the field either.

Weeden has a 107.7 rating with Houston the year he was traded. He had a plus 90 here.

This.

 

[percyhoward]

Who was missing in the first 3 weeks that would change the stats significantly?

I'm going by huge disparity of almost 20 rating points between these two samples from the OP.

next 8 games (2017-18) 80.8
last 12 games (2018) 99.1

 

[gimmesix]

These numbers show what I think we all know. Dak is about an average NFL QB. Those saying before have to consider there are 32 teams. He's in the 10-16 range for just about every stat. Not great, not crap.

Except when it comes to late or close games, which is where I do think he deserves a lot of credit. He may be 10-16 for most of the game, but he takes it up a notch when the game comes down to the wire (which most of ours do partly because of those other three quarters).

My only qualms with Dak are missing throws he just has to make with the ball possession game that we play (like the one to a wide-open Jarwin on a nice play-call), and holding the ball too long when he needs to understand it's better to throw it away or take off with it than take the loss.

 

[Runwildboys]

Amari Cooper?????

He was also missing for another 4 games after that also.

Percy is pointing out, as he has done before that Dak started out REALLY REALLY bad the first 3 games of the season and overall has trended upward since then. Which increased further since the acquisition of Amari Cooper.

He still isn’t good enough yet. But he went from being DREADFUL to being middle of the pack.

The question is, is middle of the pack good enough with our defense and running back?

Yeah, Amari came in later. I still don't understand why he's not either including the first 3 weeks, or if your assertion is correct, why he didn't post the stats for those weeks separately as a comparison.

Doesn't really matter, I was just curious.

 

[Runwildboys]

I'm going by huge disparity of almost 20 rating points between these two samples from the OP.

next 8 games (2017-18) 80.8
last 12 games (2018) 99.1

Oh I see, you were including the first 3 games in the continuation of the previous season.

 

[austin88]

I realize that that this is a thread for Prescott analysis/screaming, but the fact that the top-rated QB in several of these categories is the one we are likely to face in two weeks does not make me feel better.

 

[CATCH17]

Do yourselves a favor and get off google and watch the games.

I do not care what Daks check down numbers amount to.

 

[blueblood70]

it shows he both average and we can win with him when hes not fumbling or throwing INTs but hes Average, I hope this isn't his ceiling as having to play nearly perfect to win is asking a lot from the team..theres no room for error.. its like most games we win or lose by less then a TD..thats a lot of stress for sure..lets pray he develops but more pocket awareness and sees the field better, we leave points and yards on the field way to often.. If im jerry you wait to extend him unless he takes smaller Bortles type contract, no need to rush..extend others and just let this play out...

 

[MojaveJT]

Wow great breakdown.

 

[percyhoward]

The problem with these “facts” is Passer rating isn’t a fact, it’s an interpretation of a bunch of facts. It’s a mathematical formula that is trying to quantify QB play to some number. Dak doesn’t throw close to as many passes as many of these QBs for example. He also checks down a lot when he has guys wide open and can get bigger chunks. None of these ratings capture what Dak leaves on the field either.

Weeden has a 107.7 rating with Houston the year he was traded. He had a plus 90 here.

Weeden's passer rating with the Texans was based on 42 attempts, and 98 attempts with Dallas. You won't find find a stretch of 5 full games in Weeden's career where he sustained even an 80 passer rating.

Prescott has 393 attempts in the 12-game sample. So there are 10 QB with more attempts than Prescott, 1 with the same number, and 20 with fewer attempts than Dak.

Regarding target distance, this is from the OP:
15+ yard targets only, weeks 4-16
(15 Prescott 88.9)

Target Less Than 15 yards, weeks 4-16
Prescott ranks 15th

 

[khiladi]

Also, Josh Johnson didn’t take a snap in a single NFL game for seven years and posted a 100 plus passer rating in his first game with the Commanders, against the Giants this year and had a 94 the next game. He mediocre against the Titans, but still had them in the game until the last drive.

QBs doing what Dak has been doing are a dime a dozen in this league.

 

[irishline]

Really? So Romo was average, because through same number of games the rating is awfully close.

The game has evolved though. A 97.4 rating for Romo in 2007 led the NFC and was 4th in the NFL, this year its good for 14th in the NFL. Not trying to state that Romo was better than average or Dak is below it, just showing that comparing the numbers that way (without context) does not always show a true picture.

 

[khiladi]

Weeden's passer rating with the Texans was based on 42 attempts, and 98 attempts with Dallas. You won't find find a stretch of 5 full games in Weeden's career where he sustained even an 80 passer rating.

Prescott has 243 attempts in the 12-game sample. So there are 10 QB with more attempts than Prescott, 1 with the same number, and 20 with fewer attempts than Dak.

Regarding target distance, this is from the OP:
15+ yard targets only, weeks 4-16
(15 Prescott 88.9)

Target Less Than 15 yards, weeks 4-16
Prescott ranks 15th

Weeden never played with Zeke either nor had full training camp with the starting roster in Dallas. He didn’t play as a game manager, checkdown Charlie like he did here in Dallas either with those other teams. Weeden doing what Dak did, with the same philosophical approach, had a better completion percentage than Dak and did it with Lance Dunbar and being forced to start mid-season.

Not sure what your point is..

Dak without Zeke is a tragedy.. we’ve seen it. Dak even with Zeke set records of futility, such as not scoring for 10 straight quarters. Dak also threw 4 picks returned for TDs last year, including when Zeke was playing.

Again none of those stats point to what Dak leaves on the field. We couldn’t get a TO in 2015 and last week we had two, one that set us up for an easy TD that padded Dak’s stats. Gregory should have rolled into the end-zone himself, but he stumbled.

 

[jazzcat22]

what about games over the 5 game win streak, and this last win. won 6 of 7.

 

[percyhoward]

I realize that that this is a thread for Prescott analysis/screaming, but the fact that the top-rated QB in several of these categories is the one we are likely to face in two weeks does not make me feel better.

Wilson's passer rating has really improved as his attempts have gone down. He only ranks 25th in pass attempts since week 4.

 

[Cowboys22]

When you refuse to throw the ball until a WR is wide open it screws up so much of the passing game and QBR doesn’t really mean anything. It’d be like measuring QBR in camp with no defense. His QBR should be much higher because he only throws to unguarded WRs. He’s so bad he misses them with regularity.

 

[jterrell]

The game has evolved though. A 97.4 rating for Romo in 2007 led the NFC and was 4th in the NFL, this year its good for 14th in the NFL. Not trying to state that Romo was better than average or Dak is below it, just showing that comparing the numbers that way (without context) does not always show a true picture.

More context would be Romo had Hall of Famer Terrell Owens and Hall of Famer Jason Witten to throw to.
Those 2 combines for 2500 yards receiving.
Also worth noting wayyy back in 2007 Tony Romo was paid $11,250,000 APY in salary. DAk makes ~ 1/20h of that this year.

We either keep it simple or we look at the whole picture.

 

[khiladi]

The Saints is a typical example of how passer rating is skewed.

Dak posted a 115 rating that game, but absolutely blew chunks in the second half, when Saints went more zone. He almost cost us the game with his back-peddling pockets presence in the red-zone garbage.

 

[khiladi]

More context would be Romo had Hall of Famer Terrell Owens and Hall of Famer Jason Witten to throw to.
Those 2 combines for 2500 yards receiving.
Also worth noting wayyy back in 2007 Tony Romo was paid $11,250,000 APY in salary. DAk makes ~ 1/20h of that this year.

We either keep it simple or we look at the whole picture.

More context would also indicate Drew Bledsoe also played in those circumstances of TO and Witten and Parcells looked like a dead man on the sidelines, until Romo saved the season.