Dak Stat Pack (last 12 games)

[jterrell]

Basically proves Cowherd's point that Dak is an average QB with A+ intangibles. He would wash out without Zeke and the OL but could be Trent Dilfer with the team we have.

I'm okay with that if we don't break the bank to keep him. I'm just tired of people trying to prove how amazing Dak is. I don't think Dak would even try to make that case.

No one is suggesting Dak is amazing.
In fact it is quite the opposite.
People are suggesting he is a mid-tier starter and are merely trying to balance the idiotic vitriol he receives for outperforming R4 expectations and winning games while making league minimums.

 

[pansophy]

This is something most people don't get -- if you're going to compare raw passer ratings, the players must be from the same era. Otherwise, you need to adjust the rating or just look at where it ranked for that season.

League Avg passer rating
2015-18
89.9
2011-14
86.2
2007-10
83.2
2003-06
80.4
1999-2002
78.5

Yep and now when you look at Romo's career passer rating of 97.1 compared to the average for the years he played it tells a pretty different story. It's still 4th all time.

 

[jterrell]

Which if he could stay on the field would have been worth every penny. It wasn't as if his play had declined. He just keep breaking his collarbone.

No he wasn't.
He was a top 10 QB but he had 1 winning season his final 5 years as a starter.
The team around him sucked because he ate so much cap space.

Tom Brady made 15M in 2017.

QBs earning top 5 money aren't making the Super Bowl very often at all.

Value is still king in a harsh salary cap world.

 

[tm1119]

Do people really try to use qb rating like its a relevant stat in 2018?

 

[Willfreedom909]

Throwing to the guy that's open is pretty much job 1.
So weird flex but go off sis.

Dak is completing 68% of his passes. That isn't missing anything with regularity.

Would be easier to take his critics seriously if they weren't just bald-faced lying or pulling nonsense out of their butts that had zero tie to reality.

Does he hold the ball too long? Yes.
Does he have poor footwork when the play breaks down? Yes.

Is he getting plus OL play? No.
Is he accurate by NFL standards? Yes.

Every QB in the league misses passes and misses seeing open guys on a weekly basis.
Both occur more frequently when the guy is pressured.
Sturm has pointed this out many many times.

Bruh people will hate dak regardless. All he needs is a deep ball and we’re good

 

[percyhoward]

Basically proves Cowherd's point that Dak is an average QB with A+ intangibles. He would wash out without Zeke and the OL but could be Trent Dilfer with the team we have.

Maybe Brad Johnson is a better choice from that era, but I get your point.

passer rating rank
Prescott 2016-18
12th

Dilfer 1998-2000
24th

Johnson 1998-2000
12th

 

[pansophy]

No he wasn't.
He was a top 10 QB but he had 1 winning season his final 5 years as a starter.
The team around him sucked because he ate so much cap space.

Tom Brady made 15M in 2017.

QBs earning top 5 money aren't making the Super Bowl very often at all.

Value is still king in a harsh salary cap world.

QB is the most important position and often has the highest cap value. Romo did a couple of season but most he actually didn't. You may be forgetting how poorly we managed the cap during his tenure. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/cap/2017/

Bailey was cut for cap purposes because he had declined as a kicker and we could get at least the same performance from Maher for much less. If Romo isn't injured Prescott never sees the field. Totally different scenario.

Now I agree that we have a window right now to win while Prescott is on his rookie deal, but we really aren't getting the full benefit of it. We were still paying for Romo for some of his time and now Jerry is talking about extending him already. So this would look like the year where "value" is relevant. I'm not sure Prescott is good enough yet.

 

[Willfreedom909]

Wilson's passer rating has really improved as his attempts have gone down. He only ranks 25th in pass attempts since week 4.

That’s more scary to me. Wilson can get into a shoot out if he needs to. And when he does he usually flourishes.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

This is such a weird post...why would you want to fight someone for doing their job to the best of their ability no matter how good or bad they are? Why would you want to fight anybody if they are not posing a direct threat to you or your family?

Why would you want to fight someone who would beat the mess out of you? Dak is an athlete who weighs 240. There's not a single person here who would be standing after dude punched them

 

[pansophy]

Maybe Brad Johnson is a better choice from that era, but I get your point.

passer rating rank
Prescott 2016-18
12th

Dilfer 1998-2000
24th

Johnson 1998-2000
12th

Brad johnson threw for 4000 yards in 1999 when that was a huge feet. I have to wonder whether Dak will ever throw for 4000. If we had Brad Johnson right now we would be the favorite to win the super bowl.

Trent Dilfer won a super bowl by not making mistakes, throwing as little as possible, and having an all world Defense. Dak can win that way with such added running ability to boot.

 

[starfan1]

Do people really try to use qb rating like its a relevant stat in 2018?

Sure it’s relevant it was when #9 manned the position why isn’t it relevant to argue it now?

Now 1 could argue one passes the eye and smell test 1 don’t

But that’s a different thread

 

[jterrell]

QB is the most important position and often has the highest cap value. Romo did a couple of season but most he actually didn't. You may be forgetting how poorly we managed the cap during his tenure. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/cap/2017/

Bailey was cut for cap purposes because he had declined as a kicker and we could get at least the same performance from Maher for much less. If Romo isn't injured Prescott never sees the field. Totally different scenario.

Now I agree that we have a window right now to win while Prescott is on his rookie deal, but we really aren't getting the full benefit of it. We were still paying for Romo for some of his time and now Jerry is talking about extending him already. So this would look like the year where "value" is relevant. I'm not sure Prescott is good enough yet.

I'm very aware of the cap mgmt and mis-mgmt much of it led by paying Romo "Payton Manning money".
The SB QBs have often been cheap cap hits.

Last year Brady and Foles combined to earn ~19M. 6M less than Romo would have earned alone.
Romo priced himself out of the team's plans and the league essentially.
Same reason Indy gave up on Payton.

At QB part of being a leader is being cap friendly.
If Dak comes in under 25M long term this team will be set at QB for a long time.
If he wants to play hard ball and negotiate for every cent we will be strapped, win less and he likely gets axed eventually.

Money is important in real life and even more important in the NFL.
Top 10 QB cap hits in 2018"
1. Jimmy G --team ousted
2. Stafford --team ousted
3. Derek Carr --team ousted
4. Flacco --benched and replaced by cheap QB. play has dropped off big time since he was paid.
5. Luck --fighting for playoff berth.

5 NFL R1 drafted QB are starting from the 2018 class because money matters.

Aaron Rodgers is truly a legend but he's not worth 20M more than Dak Prescott per year.
More of these guys need to be like Tom Brady.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Incre

Prescott's passer rating

First 12 career games (2016) 108.3
next 8 games (2016-17) 92.3
next 8 games (2017) 85.5
next 8 games (2017-18) 80.8
last 12 games (2018) 99.1

These stats focus on those last 12 games...

Top 10 Passers, weeks 4-16
1 Wilson 117.1
2 Brees 112.4
3 Ryan 109.0
4 Mahomes 108.3
5 Watson 108.2
6 Rivers 105.4
7 Wentz 103.8
8 Trubisky 102.3
9 Cousins 101.6
10 Luck 101.1
(11 Prescott 99.1)

15+ yard targets only, weeks 4-16
1 Wilson 136.9
2 Brees 124.2
3 Watson 116.7
4 Rodgers 116.5
5 Rthlsbrgr 108.6
6 Ryan 107.3
7 Brady 107.0
8 Rivers 101.6
9 Cousins 100.4
10 Carr 99.4
(15 Prescott 88.9)

Target Less Than 15 yards, weeks 4-16
Prescott ranks 15th

Late & Close only, weeks 4-16
1 Ryan 129.8
2 Brady 122.7
3 Wentz 117.5
4 Prescott 117.3
5 Luck 111.3
6 Goff 110.8
7 Mahomes 110.6
8 Carr 109.3
9 Watson 106.6
10 Mariota 106.2

1st-3rd Qtr only, weeks 4-16
Prescott ranks 12th

Sacks, weeks 4-16
1 Watson 46
2 Carr 42
3 Mariota 41
3 Prescott 41
5 Rodgers 38
6 Rosen 37
7 Stafford 36
8 Manning 34
8 Ryan 34
10 Goff 30

QB Rushing TD, weeks 4-16
Prescott 6
Watson 4
Brees 3
Jackson 3
(5 tied with 2)

Lost QB Fumbles, weeks 4-16
Carr 6
Ryan 6
Cousins 5
Prescott 5
Wentz 5
Goff 4
(8 tied with 3)

Those are all from PFR. I'll add a lot more when PFF posts their stats from yesterday's game -- soon I hope.

Incredible actually. To have those kind of rankings with the problems around him and only his 3rd season.

Its safe to say that with the Oline healthy, a new OC and better pass catchers he would be top 10 or better in most of them? Probably top 5 in many.

 

[tm1119]

Sure it’s relevant it was when #9 manned the position why isn’t it relevant to argue it now?

Now 1 could argue one passes the eye and smell test 1 don’t

But that’s a different thread

Huh? At what point did my post reference Tony Romo? QB rating was a stat implemented in the 70’s that weights simply completing passes way too heavily. The idea of what the passing attack is like in the nfl today wasn’t even conceivable in 1973, so why are using the same stats? So yeah when discussing any QB past the year 2000, qb rating shouldn’t be used.

 

[Oh_Canada]

I wanna fight Dak on spring break 2019...bus driving qb will hold Dallas back

You’re not used to winning yet...it’s ok ge’ll be here winning for another ten years.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Passing rules are easier than ever. People need to stop comparing Dak's stats to anyone other than someone who has played during the last 3 years.

It's just not a real comparison otherwise.

Romo played in basically same era. He’s not 50 years old.

 

[G2]

No one is suggesting Dak is amazing.
In fact it is quite the opposite.
People are suggesting he is a mid-tier starter and are merely trying to balance the idiotic vitriol he receives for outperforming R4 expectations and winning games while making league minimums.

Exactly!

 

[CowboyRoy]

My guess is he wants to measure how Dak is playing lately and with the current supporting cast.

supporting case has g

it shows he both average and we can win with him when hes not fumbling or throwing INTs but hes Average, I hope this isn't his ceiling as having to play nearly perfect to win is asking a lot from the team..theres no room for error.. its like most games we win or lose by less then a TD..thats a lot of stress for sure..lets pray he develops but more pocket awareness and sees the field better, we leave points and yards on the field way to often.. If im jerry you wait to extend him unless he takes smaller Bortles type contract, no need to rush..extend others and just let this play out...

It shows he is average in his 3rd year when he has a bad Oline, marginal pass catchers and horrible coaching. Imagine what he could do with more help? Oh wait, we saw that in 2016.

And what these stats don't show is his great leadership and work ethic. Which is one of the big reasons he lead this team to the playoffs. His teammates love him.

 

[PUSHfold]

Dak without Zeke is a tragedy.. we’ve seen it. Dak even with Zeke set records of futility, such as not scoring for 10 straight quarters. Dak also threw 4 picks returned for TDs last year, including when Zeke was playing.

.

This is a half truth though...not only were we missing Zeke during that stretch but we were also missing Tyron Smith and had Chaz Green as his backup. We don't know how Dak would function with a decent line without Zeke because it's never happened. During that stretch of horrible games we were missing multiple all pros across the team on both sides of the ball with completely inadequate backups. Imagine if you had Chaz Green as your LT, Dak would have gotten better protection from a traffic cone.

 

[CF74]

all of which screams average to below average.

Incorrect. His TD’s make him slightly above average..