Even BGN (the Eagles’ SB Nation site) ranked Dak as the best QB in the division for 2020.
https://www.bleedinggreennation.com...020-carson-wentz-dak-prescott-quarterback-nfl
QUARTERBACK - Dak Prescott(Cowboys)
It’s just a take; it can’t hurt you.
Looking back to 2019 before we gaze forward to 2020, the case that Prescott was the better quarterback is straightforward.
Using key metrics from
PFF’s QB Annual, the analytics show that Prescott was substantially better than
Carson Wentz from a clean pocket, produced more positively graded plays, avoided negative plays, was on target more often, had a better adjusted completion percentage and was more efficient on third down.
The areas where Wentz rated higher, like when under pressure and with big time throws, it’s much tighter. Thus Prescott graded higher as a passer (13th vs. 18th) and had added value as a quality runner.
It’s not just PFF either. DVOA, QBR, QB Rating, ANY/A, and so on all favor Prescott.
The all-mighty film also favors Prescott. He was the more consistent of the two, hitting the proverbial ceiling and avoiding the floor more than Wentz.
With all of those factors leaning Prescott the onus would be on me to make the case for Wentz, if I chose to do so, not the other way around. Even Vegas has
the odds favoring Prescott to be MVP over Wentz. Still, I’ll try to explain my rationale while providing as much context as possible.
Where it went wrong for Wentz wasn’t the
high leverage drops at the end of games. In fact, I thought he played better for the early stretch of the season than many gave him credit for.
Beyond a
nasty fumbling habit, the problem for Wentz shines harshest on three
big games in the middle of the season. The first tilt against Dallas in Week 7 was a truly abysmal performance that saw the Eagles and Wentz falter early and never get going. That was followed soon after by two consecutive games against the
Patriots and
Seahawks where he looked mentally shot as the situation around him crumbled.
Wentz should get credit for rebounding and ending the season with 10 touchdowns and 1 interception over the last 5 games to drag his team to the playoffs. I’d argue it was
more impressive from a leadership perspective than an execution standpoint. For example, during that stretch he never played a
DVOA pass defense ranked higher than 23rd. The
Giants and
Dolphinscheck in at 31st and 32nd respectively, and they represent three of those five match-ups.
Prescott’s worst game came in a big moment too, but it was a
shoulder injury that limited him against the Eagles in Week 16. Like Wentz, Prescott suffered from a plethora of drops, leading the league by a wide margin with 43. His receivers had 5 against the Eagles in that game alone, leaving the banged up Prescott without the support to triumph in the must-win divisional showdown.
Outside of that late failure in Philadelphia, you’re only left with a
shaky performance on the road against the Patriots as games where Prescott came up noticeably short by his own doing. Even then, he never hit the lows Wentz achieved multiple times in 2019.
Projecting to 2020, situation is a key factor in quarterback success and these two are no different. The Eagles are on their third cycle of “
Weapons For Wentz” and their
third cycle of offensive coaches under Doug Pederson. It likely can’t be any worse in terms of supporting cast for Wentz, but there’s a
good deal of unknown concerning how it all comes together.
The Cowboys made a key decision in the off-season in
retaining offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. It would’ve been a huge blunder letting the young mastermind behind the
2nd ranked DVOA offense walk and the Cowboys ultimately made the right decision. They also
locked in Amari Cooper and
stole CeeDee Lamb in the
2020 NFL Draft.
In terms of “stability plus” - a term I made up just now - Prescott has the advantage while Wentz will need much better health around him and for new ideas to mesh well with new additions. One spot where the
Eagles have the advantage is offensive line, as we’ll delve into later in this piece. That’s no small thing.
If their surrounding circumstances click, both quarterbacks have already shown the potential to play like top 10 quarterbacks or better. This is probably the third time I’ve changed answers on this through the years, but gun to my head, I’d argue that Prescott has the better shot at being a top tier quarterback in 2020.