Defense needs to be better against the run

[TWOK11]

Hurts is like every bus driver. Make him throw from the pocket more increases your chance of victory. How do you make him throw more? By stopping the run and putting him in second and third in distance. Again we will have to agree to disagree.

Stopping the run doesn’t have much impact on passing success. Passing success is determined largely by QB and OL play, and to a lesser degree your receivers.

 

[TWOK11]

right but also there are going to be situations where you can do everything right but you need to stuff the run. That’s the big weakness of this defense if your looking for one

But on a large scale across time you won’t, thus the reason the numbers are what they are.

Kansas City will lose a game every now and then because they couldn’t stop a team from running the clock out. It’s not going to have a significant impact on the course of their season, and in any given game will have virtually no statistical impact on if they win. You can run for 250 yards and still EASILY lose to a great passing team. A great passing team virtually never loses when they have a great passing day. Great rushing days result in losses literally every week because it’s hard to win that way.

 

[RS12]

Stopping the run doesn’t have much impact on passing success. Passing success is determined largely by QB and OL play, and to a lesser degree your receivers.

You hang on tight to your statistics. Defense couldnt stop the run and couldnt get off the field. Thats what happened and a big reason they lost.

 

[mattjames2010]

I’m just posting the data, I don’t know why you’re mad at me. Be mad at the nature of the game.

And I'm saying your data is so raw, you shouldn't even be mentioning it. Romo himself today was telling KC and Buffalo to stick with the run even if they aren't getting big gains - both Allen and Mahomes were struggling early because the defense was expecting the pass every down. Now factor in successful running and you bring players closer to the line opening up stuff in the middle and deeper down the field.

...that's exactly what happened tonight. To sit here after watching that Eagles final scoring drive and come away with the run not mattering is just so ridiculously ignorant I don't know if I should laugh or just shake my head. The Eagles run game set up the pass, it's exactly what they have been doing all season long. Of course passing needs to be effective, but the run helps open things up. Holy moly.

 

[TWOK11]

You hang on tight to your statistics. Defense couldnt stop the run and couldnt get off the field. Thats what happened and a big reason they lost.

But again, if we had thrown the ball more efficiently we wouldn’t have been in the position where that mattered, whereas had we stopped the run we still probably lose tonight because the Eagles were better (or perhaps less terrible) throwing the ball.

You’re missing the forrest for the trees here.

 

[mattjames2010]

He is another one the stuck on statistics instead of what is happening on the field. The defense didnt get stops when the needed particularly against the run. Not sure what he watching.

What did Eagles do on their final scoring drive, what was it like 45 straight rushing yards? I'm sure that totally didn't set up those final big passes that got them into the end zone.

 

[TWOK11]

And I'm saying your data is so raw, you shouldn't even be mentioning it. Romo himself today was telling KC and Buffalo to stick with the run even if they aren't getting big gains - both Allen and Mahomes were struggling early because the defense was expecting the pass every down. Now factor in successful running and you bring players closer to the line opening up stuff in the middle and deeper down the field.

...that's exactly what happened tonight. To sit here after watching that Eagles final scoring drive and come away with the run not mattering is just so ridiculously ignorant I don't know if I should laugh or just shake my head. The Eagles run game set up the pass, it's exactly what they have been doing all season long. Of course passing needs to be effective, but the run helps open things up. Holy moly.

And Romo is wrong, because the data is clear.

Every time Buffalo or Kansas City runs the ball they are helping the other team outside of very specific game situations where clock is more important than yards or points. Outside of that, every run is a win for the defense.

And again, both PFF and the ESPN analytic model have corrected for rushing success in passing data. Running the ball does not have a noticeable statistical impact on passing success. Playaction works whether you run well or not, and passing succes in general is tied almost exclusively to QB and OL play. Receivers are actually overvalued statistically speaking, whereas OL is undervalued.

 

[mattjames2010]

And Romo is wrong, because the data is clear.

Every time Buffalo or Kansas City runs the ball they are helping the other team outside of very specific game situations where clock is more important than yards or points. Outside of that, every run is a win for the defense.

LOL right, both Buffalo and KC should have just continued to allow safeties to stay deep and expect the pass on every down. QBs should throw 60 times a game and limit rushers to 10 rushes per game or in short yardage situations.

Brilliant big brain takes here.

 

[TWOK11]

He has little clue what he is talking about. With his mindset, why even run the dang ball?

Some of the conclusions people come to on this forum is hilarious.

Sken teams have to run the ball because bad things happen when they throw, as you see with Dallas.

But if you have a good QB, most teams run the ball far too much. Teams like KC and Buffalo, if they were really keen on analytics like they claim to be, would throw the ball 75-80% of the time and much of the 20-25% runs would be situational clock management. Teams with good QB play help the opppositon when they run. It’s why our pattern of running on first down every time under Garrett was so deterimental.

 

[TWOK11]

LOL right, both Buffalo and KC should have just continued to allow safeties to stay deep and expect the pass on every down. QBs should throw 60 times a game and limit rushers to 10 rushes per game or in short yardage situations.

Brilliant big brain takes here.

Good to great QBs should have a very high pass/run ratio, yes.

Again, most people just don’t grasp big data sets across time. Our brains aren’t programmed to understand analytical models that run counter to long held narratives. I get it.

But deep down every fan does have some intuition about this at the extremes. It’s why every opposing fan feels a small bit of relief every time Mahomes hands the ball off.

 

[mattjames2010]

Good to great QBs should have a very high pass/run ratio, yes.

Again, most people just don’t grasp big data sets across time. Our brains aren’t programmed to understand analytical models that run counter to long held narratives. I get it.

But deep down every fan does have some intuition about this at the extremes. It’s why every opposing fan feels a small bit of relief every time Mahomes hands the ball off.

Look, your take is just stupid and any professional player and coach would call you worse things than I would call you if you told them this. It's just an awful take that you're sticking with. I've entertained it for too long.

 

[TWOK11]

What did Eagles do on their final scoring drive, what was it like 45 straight rushing yards? I'm sure that totally didn't set up those final big passes that got them into the end zone.

Again, the point is that drive is irrelevant (and doesn’t happen, because they wouldn’t be running it) if we hadn’t been so abysmal throwing the ball most of the night.

Philly wasn’t good at the things that decide games, they just weren’t as bad as we were. A high passing efficiency has them in a deep hole late and that drive never materializes to begin with.

On the flip side even if we stop them on that drive, statistically we had a 21% chance to win. Meaning we still lose lost of the time regardless. Our win probability only dropped about 15% because of that drive.

 

[TWOK11]

Look, your take is just stupid and any professional player and coach would call you worse things than I would call you if you told them this. It's just an awful take that you're sticking with. I've entertained it for too long.

Many professional football players have IQs that skirt the MR threshold and would not be functional members of society apart from their athletic ability. What most of them think on this is irrelevant. Coaches in general have a big problem with magical thinking and believe in their “gut” too much. Moreover, because most people who watch football have a superficial at best understanding, they coach to avoid the things that make superficial fans call for their job. Like going for it on 4th and short, which you should almost always do.

 

[droopdog7]

But again, if we had thrown the ball more efficiently we wouldn’t have been in the position where that mattered, whereas had we stopped the run we still probably lose tonight because the Eagles were better (or perhaps less terrible) throwing the ball.

You’re missing the forrest for the trees here.

What you seem to be saying is that we can't stop the run but most of the time it won't matter. So you're not disputing what was said, you're making a different argument.

 

[NumOneQB]

They were worn out

 

[TWOK11]

What you seem to be saying is that we can't stop the run but most of the time it won't matter. So you're not disputing what was said, you're making a different argument.

I’m saying those who think we lost tonight because of the Eagles run game are missing the bigger picture.

Kansas City gets run on like that in games they win by multiple touchdowns all the time. So do ALL good to great passing teams. On the flip side, great running teams virtually never win when their opponent has more success than them passing the ball. It happens less than 5 times per year in the NFL.

 

[droopdog7]

I’m saying those who think we lost tonight because of the Eagles run game are missing the bigger picture.

Kansas City gets run on like that in games they win by multiple touchdowns all the time. So do ALL good to great passing teams. On the flip side, great running teams virtually never win when their opponent has more success than them passing the ball. It happens less than 5 times per year in the NFL.

Yes, you're making a whole different argument because this thread didn't start out by saying we lost because of that. Clearly we lost because the QB wasn't good and threw three TO's. The main point was that the D is good, but won't be great unless it can play better agasint the run.

 

[TWOK11]

Yes, you're making a whole different argument because this thread didn't start out by saying we lost because of that. Clearly we lost because the QB wasn't good and threw three TO's. The main point was that the D is good, but won't be great unless it can play better agasint the run.

The premise of this thread, or at least the implication, is our run defense will be our undoing. I’m saying that’s an unfounded fear once Dak gets back.

 

[gimmesix]

We will have to agree to disagree because not stopping the run had a whole lot to do with not winning tonight.

We had a couple of bad series against the run. Not giving them a short field would have helped more than how we played against the run. We put the defense in a bad position a lot tonight. Not going to be too upset about it considering that, but we'll see how it goes.

 

[droopdog7]

The premise of this thread, or at least the implication, is our run defense will be our undoing. I’m saying that’s an unfounded fear once Dak gets back.

Am I’m simply comparing them to the standard of a great defense