DMN Blog: Mike Jenkins happy to be in Pro Bowl

[theogt]

You're clueless.

 

[CoolNClutch]

Wow already putting Jenkins ahead of Newman after really just one season?? Sure Newman has declined but from the 2003-2006 seasons he was definitely one of the best coverage corners in the league.

I think Jenkins has a higher ceiling due to his ballskills + younger age (Newman was already old coming into the league)

 

[AdamJT13]

Newman has never been the type of corner that consistently forced or created an INT.

He actually has been very consistent at getting interceptions, he's just never had one season with a bunch of them. He's played seven seasons, and he has at least three interceptions in six of them, which is a rare accomplishment. He's had four interceptions in more than half of his seasons, which also is rare.

This is the result of having a good corner opposite him. Newman probably had more passes thrown at him this year than any other year

That's not correct.

and that's largely due to Jenkins playing opposite him. If you take either player off the team, their targets will go down significantly. So the comparison there is not apples to apples.

I did some research into this subject a couple of years ago, and a cornerback's target rate is only slightly affected by the opposite cornerback, for various reasons. Even a terrible cornerback is targeted only about 25 percent of the time. If it was a matter of throwing only at one cornerback or the other, then the effect would be greater. But when there are usually five potential receivers and six or seven people in coverage, a weak cornerback being targeted more decreases the attempts that go against all of the other coverage players, not just the opposite cornerback.

For example, let's say two fairly equal cornerbacks are on the field for 500 pass attempts. They each get targeted 95 times, which is about a normal rate (19 percent). Now let's replace one with a worse player who gets targeted 125 times (25 percent). The other cornerback won't see 30 fewer targets just because one is targeted 30 more times. Those 30 extra passes come out of ALL of the other passes thrown, including those thrown away because of coverage. So there are fewer passes thrown to the other starting receiver, fewer thrown to the third and fourth receivers, fewer thrown to the tight ends and fewer dumped off to the running backs. Of those 30 extra passes thrown at the worse cornerback, maybe 10 -- if that -- would have been thrown at the better cornerback is the worse cornerback was better. That's a difference in target rate of only 2 percent.

That doesn't even take into consideration that many times, when one cornerback is significantly better, he'll be asked to shadow a No. 1 receiver and therefore will be targeted more often than he otherwise would be, or that a worse cornerback usually gets more double-team help and therefore will be targeted less than if he didn't have help (like the better cornerback).

Newman doesn't shadow No. 1s anymore either (that I can recall).

He did for most of the game against the Panthers.

That's not because he's significantly worse now than before, but because he doesn't have to. There are other competent corners on the team that we can afford to keep them on one side of the field, which is ideal.

Whatever the reason, not having to shadow an elite receiver all game certainly makes it easier on a cornerback, wouldn't you say? If Jenkins had been asked to do that -- say, for example, if Newman had been hurt and we asked Jenkins to shadow Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith (either one) or Roddy White or Sidney Rice -- would he not have been targeted more in those games?

Jenkins' snaps were down because of the few games in the beginning of the season in which the team was experimenting with splitting starts between him and Scandrick. It became very obvious very quickly that that was a bad decision.

And if he had been on the field for those 110 snaps he didn't play, he undoubtedly would have been targeted more and would have allowed even more catches and yards, and possibly more touchdowns (or gotten more interceptions). That would make the difference between what Jenkins allowed this season and what Newman allowed in 2005, for example, that much greater.

I'm just saying that those are factors that make Jenkins' season less impressive than some of Newman's shutdown seasons.

 

[Woods]

AdamJT13,

Any chance I can get you to negotiate my bonus at work?

I feel I'm terribly underpaid.

 

[theogt]

He actually has been very consistent at getting interceptions, he's just never had one season with a bunch of them. He's played seven seasons, and he has at least three interceptions in six of them, which is a rare accomplishment. He's had four interceptions in more than half of his seasons, which also is rare.

I understand that he's very consistent in getting interceptions, but that's not what I stated.

That's not correct.

I don't have the numbers for every year in front of me, but what year did he have more than 90 passes thrown his way?

I did some research into this subject a couple of years ago, and a cornerback's target rate is only slightly affected by the opposite cornerback, for various reasons. Even a terrible cornerback is targeted only about 25 percent of the time. If it was a matter of throwing only at one cornerback or the other, then the effect would be greater. But when there are usually five potential receivers and six or seven people in coverage, a weak cornerback being targeted more decreases the attempts that go against all of the other coverage players, not just the opposite cornerback.

For example, let's say two fairly equal cornerbacks are on the field for 500 pass attempts. They each get targeted 95 times, which is about a normal rate (19 percent). Now let's replace one with a worse player who gets targeted 125 times (25 percent). The other cornerback won't see 30 fewer targets just because one is targeted 30 more times. Those 30 extra passes come out of ALL of the other passes thrown, including those thrown away because of coverage. So there are fewer passes thrown to the other starting receiver, fewer thrown to the third and fourth receivers, fewer thrown to the tight ends and fewer dumped off to the running backs. Of those 30 extra passes thrown at the worse cornerback, maybe 10 -- if that -- would have been thrown at the better cornerback is the worse cornerback was better. That's a difference in target rate of only 2 percent.

That doesn't even take into consideration that many times, when one cornerback is significantly better, he'll be asked to shadow a No. 1 receiver and therefore will be targeted more often than he otherwise would be, or that a worse cornerback usually gets more double-team help and therefore will be targeted less than if he didn't have help (like the better cornerback).

Interesting. I'd like to see the research. But it's not just that Jenkins is better opposite him. We now currently have much better safeties and a much better 3rd corner in Scandrick. We've never had this collection of talent in Newman's career.

He did for most of the game against the Panthers.

Couldn't recall if he did there or not (should have just looked it up). That was very early on, right about the time the staff decided Jenkins would be the starter, so I'm sure they were still a little bit hesitant on Jenkins. Since that game and going forward I doubt we'll ever seen Newman follow the #1 around.

Whatever the reason, not having to shadow an elite receiver all game certainly makes it easier on a cornerback, wouldn't you say? If Jenkins had been asked to do that -- say, for example, if Newman had been hurt and we asked Jenkins to shadow Brandon Marshall or Steve Smith (either one) or Roddy White or Sidney Rice -- would he not have been targeted more in those games?

It should make it easier, but it's impossible to say whether it even likely affected the statistics due to so many other factors.

And if he had been on the field for those 110 snaps he didn't play, he undoubtedly would have been targeted more and would have allowed even more catches and yards, and possibly more touchdowns (or gotten more interceptions). That would make the difference between what Jenkins allowed this season and what Newman allowed in 2005, for example, that much greater.

What are Newman's 2005 stats, by the way? I don't have the books in front of me.

If you extrapolate Jenkins' snaps out over the same number of snaps Newman played, the numbers don't change much (6 pass attempts difference; 3 passes given up, which would tie him with Newman; 40 yards difference, which still puts him ahead of Newman by about 70 yards; TDs and INTs stay about the same).

I'm just saying that those are factors that make Jenkins' season less impressive than some of Newman's shutdown seasons.

Were the # of snaps that different?

 

[AdamJT13]

I don't have the numbers for every year in front of me, but what year did he have more than 90 passes thrown his way?

STATS had him being targeted 116 times as a rookie and 98 times in his second season. I'm not sure how many times they have him being targeted this season.

What are Newman's 2005 stats, by the way? I don't have the books in front of me.

KC Joyner had him for 77 targets and 444 yards allowed, including penalty yards. STATS had him for 81 targets and 394 yards allowed. Football Outsiders had him for 72 targets and 382 yards allowed. Joyner and STATS both had him allowing one TD catch, although we know that Parcells said Newman didn't allow any. (They counted Eddie Kennison's 47-yard TD catch against Newman.)

If you extrapolate Jenkins' snaps out over the same number of snaps Newman played, the numbers don't change much

I wasn't talking about Newman's snaps this season, I was talking about his shutdown seasons when he played almost every single snap.

 

[theogt]

STATS had him being targeted 116 times as a rookie and 98 times in his second season. I'm not sure how many times they have him being targeted this season.

Okay, well more passes this year than in any of this "good" years.

KC Joyner had him for 77 targets and 444 yards allowed, including penalty yards. STATS had him for 81 targets and 394 yards allowed. Football Outsiders had him for 72 targets and 382 yards allowed. Joyner and STATS both had him allowing one TD catch, although we know that Parcells said Newman didn't allow any. (They counted Eddie Kennison's 47-yard TD catch against Newman.)

Obviously a very good season. If you take Joyner's numbers and add 45 yards per additional INT Jenkins had in 2009 (which I think are worth more), you get pretty similar yards given up and one more TD given up for Jenkins.

If you look at the statistics alone, Newman had a slightly better year. But then you take into account that Newman was less targeted because of his surrounding cast and I think the two seasons are about even.

Either way, it's hard to say the two season aren't close.

I wasn't talking about Newman's snaps this season, I was talking about his shutdown seasons when he played almost every single snap.

They wouldn't be much different. Our defense has played about the same number of snaps every season.

 

[AdamJT13]

Okay, well more passes this year than in any of this "good" years.

That depends on how many targets STATS, K.C. Joyner and Football Outsiders have him with. PFF might not credit them the same.

If you take Joyner's numbers and add 45 yards per additional INT Jenkins had in 2009 (which I think are worth more), you get pretty similar yards given up and one more TD given up for Jenkins.

Even if we include a 47-yard touchdown that we KNOW Newman didn't allow and the penalty yardage that Joyner includes, then add 90 more yards, that's still fewer adjusted yards and fewer touchdowns while playing virtually every snap than Jenkins allowed this season (and not including penalty yards). And we won't even discuss Jenkins' two playoff games, for your sake.

It's all a matter of opinion, I suppose. If you'd rather allow more catches, yards and touchdowns to get a few more interceptions, that's your choice. I'd rather have the shutdown guy. Hopefully Jenkins can become that type of player.

 

[stilltheguru]

I'll take Jenkins over Newman anyday. Even the 2005 Newman just based on his on field attitude alone.

 

[brickman]

I'll take Jenkins over Newman anyday. Even the 2005 Newman just based on his on field attitude alone.

I'm with you, man. He plays with an attitude that is infectious. He is something very special.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

This kid is going to be special... I love his attitude and confidence!

 

[jay cee]

I'll take Jenkins over Newman anyday. Even the 2005 Newman just based on his on field attitude alone.

Awww, back then, most cowboy fans thought Newman was the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Now that he is probably not as good as he was at that time, you guys want to pretend he was never really a good player.

 

[Doomsday101]

I'm just happy we have 2 very good CB who are starting for us with a 3rd in Scandrick who seemed to come on strong over the last part of the season.

 

[Paniolo22]

I'm just happy we have 2 very good CB who are starting for us with a 3rd in Scandrick who seemed to come on strong over the last part of the season.