DMN: Cowboys would have already won a SB if I was coaching them

[Corso]

Kevin Kelley wants to be a Cowboy. Would love to get this crazy guy on the staff somewhere.

http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sports/...y-won-a-super-bowl-if-i-was-coaching-them.ece

He sounds like he could be the progeny of Buddy Ryan.

 

[punchnjudy]

Eh, I was thinking of a similar strategy during the preseason last year when there was talk of Dallas having a historically bad defense and a strong offense. Of course, it didn't work out that way.

 

[jrumann59]

In HS his strategy works. Most HS usually try and steal a soccer player to do kick duties with the averages being in the 30 yard range. Most HS are run heavy, When I played in 90's a good HS passing team threw it maybe 20 times, most HS teams threw maybe 10-15. If you have juggernaut Offense and good defense which is not hard for good programs to do now, the "legality" of it may be another discussion. Of course you can go for it on 4th down, only do 2 pt conversions, if your defense is rock solid and you are "allowed" to recruit players and your offense outmatches most of your opponent where you avg 10 yds a rush attempt.

 

[ConstantReboot]

It's not a gimmick. He's playing probabilities, that's all.

If I were GM of a perennial doormat like the Skins or the Jags, I'd be all over this. If nothing else, fans would love watching you suck. It'd be really entertaining for the league.

Its not a gimmick. Its playing the odds. When you have control of the ball more than the other team you win. I like his philosophy and its actually backup by numbers as well. Hence the 4 state titles that he won so far.

 

[joseephuss]

How can the numbers back it up if NFL teams don't do the things he suggests? There is no true data that can be used to back up up his claims.

He isn't even coaching at a high level of high school football.

 

[erod]

His concepts and numbers are flawed. This is a good way to be down by 40 points at halftime.

Take what happens to Chip Kelly's teams as the season wears on, then multiple it by 100.

 

[erod]

Its not a gimmick. Its playing the odds. When you have control of the ball more than the other team you win. I like his philosophy and its actually backup by numbers as well. Hence the 4 state titles that he won so far.

It's cute when you're playing with untalented small-school high school kids.

The NFL would eat this guy alive.

 

[pansophy]

Not according to analytics. And many said the same would not work at the HS level either.

You mean analytics generated by teams going for it when it deems the risk / benefit favors them? That isn't going to generalize to all situations.

 

[Doomsday101]

How can the numbers back it up if NFL teams don't do the things he suggests? There is no true data that can be used to back up up his claims.

He isn't even coaching at a high level of high school football.

True, teams who went for it on 4th down vs NE were only 8 of 23 and NE was not even the best on 4th down stops. I think there is a time to gamble and a time to play it safe. There are some NFL defense who will make you pay for taking stupid chances and then capitalize on those stops. There is a reason NFL coaches do not go for it all the time on 4th down.

 

[ShiningStar]

For like one season maybe. Lol

and with a heck of a runner. Contract year, sure, but a heck of a runner for 1 year.

 

[erod]

What this igmo doesn't understand is that defenses make big plays, too.

This is like the soccer coach who puts all his speed up top and consistently gets beat 5-3.

This guy goes to the bathroom and lets the CPU take over in Madden when he's on defense.

 

[casmith07]

lol, so HS = the Pros now? Got it.

Stay in Little Rock, dude.

 

[TheDude]

How can the numbers back it up if NFL teams don't do the things he suggests? There is no true data that can be used to back up up his claims.

He isn't even coaching at a high level of high school football.

Because NFL coaches are extremely risk averse. New coaches tend to go to bad teams ( w bad players). Being a trailblazer will get you crucified nationally.

 

[CapnCook]

Analytics - using stats built on top of situations that do not match what you are trying to predict. Once every team knows you are going to kick it on sides, they will adjust accordingly. Ask Andy Reid how well that all worked out against Dallas AFTER the first time he tried it on the opening kick off. Going for it on fourth down every time will quickly deplete your reserve of plays designed for the situation. NFL film and scouting vs. High School film and scouting. Its a difference in resources.

Stupid. If he thinks he would have won a Super Bowl with Phil Costa as his center and Roy Williams as his WR, well then I just say we let him keep his delusion. It's cute in a pathetic sorta way.

This guys lack of respect for the talent, knowledge and skill or the opposition in the NFL is enough to keep me from hiring him.

 

[Direwolf63]

It's one thing to convince young impressionable high school kids that this should be how to play the game. They are gone after 3 years anyway.

What happens if your in the NFL and you lose 2 or 3 games by 40 points...a real possibility. The players would turn on you in a heartbeat. You wouldn't last the season. The mutiny would be drastic.

 

[BAT]

It's one thing to convince young impressionable high school kids that this should be how to play the game. They are gone after 3 years anyway.

What happens if your in the NFL and you lose 2 or 3 games by 40 points...a real possibility. The players would turn on you in a heartbeat. You wouldn't last the season. The mutiny would be drastic.

Sort of like what happened to Jimmy his first 2 seasons in the NFL. He had to bring in players that not just fit his system, but bought into his philosophy on how to win. Not saying Kelley's ideas are all going to work, but being a trailblazer takes just as much patience as courage, especially in the face of adversity. There were people burned at the stake for saying the world was round, or that the earth was not the center of the universe. Truth changes when light (new discoveries) is shined upon it.

Is football so evolved that there are no more new ideas or concepts to improve it?

 

[dallasdave]

Sort of like what happened to Jimmy his first 2 seasons in the NFL. He had to bring in players that not just fit his system, but bought into his philosophy on how to win. Not saying Kelley's ideas are all going to work, but being a trailblazer takes just as much patience as courage, especially in the face of adversity. There were people burned at the stake for saying the world was round, or that the earth was not the center of the universe. Truth changes when light (new discoveries) is shined upon it.

Is football so evolved that there are no more new ideas or concepts to improve it?

You are right the game changes. I think back when Jimmy got the job in Dallas and everyone hated him and thought what a mistake it was to bring Jimmy in and get rid of Tom. Well change was hard but you see the results. 3 Super Bowl wins with the team Jimmy built. I know Jimmy only won 2 but that was his team.

 

[dallasdave]

Jimmy was an out of the box thinker and many thought his philosophies would only work at college level. Landry was completely off his rocker and was introducing new concepts left and right. Those guys seem to be pretty good. Like Jimmy and Landry, Kelley has proved his insanity can be successful.

Kelley is like a mad scientist and constantly tinkering with schemes, data and ideas. Oops, that is Bellichick's nick name.

You bring up some good points. I like out of the box thinking.

 

[Doomsday101]

Sort of like what happened to Jimmy his first 2 seasons in the NFL. He had to bring in players that not just fit his system, but bought into his philosophy on how to win. Not saying Kelley's ideas are all going to work, but being a trailblazer takes just as much patience as courage, especially in the face of adversity. There were people burned at the stake for saying the world was round, or that the earth was not the center of the universe. Truth changes when light (new discoveries) is shined upon it.

Is football so evolved that there are no more new ideas or concepts to improve it?

Jimmy did not go for it that often on 4th downs, heck most in a season was 12 times and it was not his offense it was Norv Turners offense

The team who are leading the NFL in 4th down attempts are the losing teams they have no choice since they are behind in games and their conversions are low. NFL coaches rightfully get question when they try risking things. If you get it and win your a hero if you miss it and lose you were just stupid. High school coach spouting off makes him look good in front of his kids but frankly a HC in the NFL always going to it on 4th is going to get fired. There are some NFL defense who will shut you down

People like stats that say if you go for it on 4th and 1 you will make it x amount of times but there is another stats and that is not mentioned which is what is the percentage a defense will win those 4th and shorts and that varies from defense to defense

 

[Idgit]

True, teams who went for it on 4th down vs NE were only 8 of 23 and NE was not even the best on 4th down stops. I think there is a time to gamble and a time to play it safe. There are some NFL defense who will make you pay for taking stupid chances and then capitalize on those stops. There is a reason NFL coaches do not go for it all the time on 4th down.

I'm not necessarily in on what this guy is selling. I do think it's really interesting, though. In your own example, 8 of 23 means they got 8 additional possessions agains that NE defense. In order to get them, they had to give up the yardage for 17 (< lol, 15, derp) punts, assuming no muffs or blocks. Netting ~40 yards/punt, that's, what, ~650 or so yards of field position. And you're also eliminating the risk of a big play on the 23 ST plays you'd otherwise have.

Personally, that's not enough to make it worth it to me, but it's not altogether crazy. Maybe you only go for it most of the time and eliminate some of the lowest probability plays from the metrics. Or maybe things look different when you don't use the Superbowl champion for the baseline. Either way, though, you have to admit, it'd be fun to watch. If you're a Bucs fan or a Jags fan or a new team in LA, maybe, it'd be worth the experiment. I think it'd be great for the game.