Does any coach punt from the opponent's side more than Garrett?

RoboQB

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,682
Reaction score
9,761
The data is clear. You go for it. Probably for all three, but certainly for the first two.

So, you'd give the Giants the ball after missing a 61-62 yard FG?
Somebody needs to re-check the data.
Pin them deep... especially while leading. That's the right call.
This isn't a video game.
 

RoboQB

Well-Known Member
Messages
7,682
Reaction score
9,761
Chris Jones makes me hate the decision much less. You know he's going to pin it inside the 10.

If he punts to the 15 or the 17, those 30 yards of field position aren't really worth it. A touchback definitely hurts you. But Jones finds that sweet spot consistently without getting too greedy and trying to coffin corner it inside the 5.

You hit the nail on the head. If your punter is a weapon, use him.
 

wick

Well-Known Member
Messages
939
Reaction score
278
So, you'd give the Giants the ball after missing a 61-62 yard FG?
Somebody needs to re-check the data.
Pin them deep... especially while leading. That's the right call.
This isn't a video game.

I said we should go for it, not kick a field goal.
 

robbieruff

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,709
Reaction score
5,108
It sure feels like Garrett punts a ton from the opposition's side of the field, and Sunday night was certainly no exception. We punted four times from Giants territory out of nine total drives. Those fourth downs:
  • 4th and 3 from the Giants 43
  • 4th and 2 from the Giants 44
  • 4th and 7 from the Giants 42
  • 4th and 20 from the Giants 42
The last drive is definitely a punting situation. I'm not sure what the numbers say about the 4th and 7, but I'd go for that with our offense. The first two should be automatic go for it situations unless there is a compelling game situation, which there was not at those points.
I was actually pretty upset on that 4 and 20 situation. Screaming at the TV - “go for it you idiot!!!”

But seriously - I think that had everything to do with his confidence that we were the better team. Jimmy was a gambler but a calculated one. As a heavy home favorite in his mind he would never do anything to give the other team a break by taking unnecessary risks. Conversely, if he thot he was the less talented side (like that road win in 1991 when we ended the Commanders undefeated record) Jimmy gambled like a madman possessed. I think Red takes a page from that book on when and where he chooses to take risks.
 

jrumann59

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,948
Reaction score
8,733
When is field position ever more important than points?

Would you take a knee on fourth-and-1 from the opponent's 9-yard line to guarantee they start at their own 10? Of course not -- because points are far more important than field position.
at that position on the field yes. When you are near midfield I would punt because the way kickers are today and I do not know the NYG kicker range but lets say you go for the 4th and 2 at 43 and fail now Eli only has to drive maybe 30 yards and in field goal range. most NFL offenses can put stuff together for 30 yards
 

Ranching

Well-Known Member
Messages
43,127
Reaction score
107,435
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
This reads like a baseball fan from 1985 discussing the virtues of a sacrifice bunt.
Lol, man Wick, why are you so mad? Did someone kill your dog? Lol, just kidding. Salud!
 

Scotman

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,465
Reaction score
6,067
Punting kept them from developing any momentum. Eli on a hot streak isn't a good thing for a defense that's style trying to create an identity. Eli insecure and with his back against the goal post makes your defense much better. How much better is it that the Cowboys are going into Denver with a defensive win they couldn't muster last year?
 

jday

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,321
Reaction score
13,284
You're not explaining anything. Your'e making assertions without any support or evidence. The things you're asserting are simply wrong, and there's a ton of data out there to support that.

It's interesting. I watched this process happen 20 years ago in baseball. New stats and analytics were coming along and it became obvious to those looking at the data that teams were making poor strategic decisions about things like stolen bases and hit-and-run plays (not to mention player evaluation). There was massive resistance from fans and the press and the teams themselves to incorporating these ideas. And now, finally, years later, they've completely taken over the game. And now the teams are leading the way on data-driven innovation, with all the shifting being the most obvious example. Football is way ahead in some areas, but in others, like 4th down calls, it's the same pattern. I'll be very surprised if, 10 years from now, 4th down decision-making hasn't drastically changed.
Data? What kind of data are you referring to? Were you hoping I would provide data compiled by a completely different team, in completely different weather conditions, under completely different circumstances, against completely different opposition, with completely different levels of talent? I'm not sure how that data would help.

But I can tell you this. The easiest way to look at this debate is to simply follow the money. The majority of the Cowboys cap is devoted to their offense; that, I believe, is common knowledge. So it is reasonable to expect that the Cowboys have much more confidence in their offense than they do their defense. So, to answer the question in the op once again, the reason you punt the ball when it is just shy of field goal range and yet still in the oppositions side of the field is simple: the Cowboys trust in their offenses ability to get there again.

This team's strategy (more common knowledge) is to protect their otherwise suspect defense, which is why they place a premium on holding the ball and keeping the oppositions offense off the field. The more long fields we give the opposing offense the more plays they have to perform to score, the more chance for them to make a mistake. If you go for it and you miss, the opposition then only has to drive 15 to 20 yards to be in field goal range. The last thing the Cowboys wanted last Sunday night was to start trading field goals with the Giants. So, smartly, they continued to place the Giants beyond their own 20 to make them attempt to drive 50 yards to get into field goal range, which they were able to shut down all but once.

Lastly, this strategy of punting assisted the Cowboys in clock management. The more field the Giants had to drive, the more time they exhausted off of the clock. Had the Cowboys given them a short field, that affords the Giants a better opportunity for a quick score.

In essence, if the Cowboys were a team that invested more in their defense than their offense and as a result had a dominant defense, they might take more chances like that for the simple fact that they don't know when their offense will have field position like that again and they trust their defense to get the stop. The Cowboys, however, have the luxury of knowing that regardless of where their offense starts they can drive up the field and score, regardless of the strength of the oppositions defense.

Make sense?
When is field position ever more important than points?

Would you take a knee on fourth-and-1 from the opponent's 9-yard line to guarantee they start at their own 10? Of course not -- because points are far more important than field position.

That question has absolutely nothing to do with the conversation.

Given the scenario that the Cowboys are outside of field goal range, but are in the oppositions territory, in most cases, the smart move for the Cowboys in particular is to punt. See response above for the reasons why that rule particularly applies to the Cowboys. Were we talking about the Giants, I'd say they need to go for it alot because their offense doesn't have the talent (as evidenced by Sunday night) to move the ball up the field like the Cowboys can. The Cowboys had no reason to press Sunday night. They held the lead, they had the momentum, and so all they really had to do (like Mayweather did to McGregor) is allow the Giants to exhaust themselves attempting to drive up the field in small manageable bites; for the most part the Cowboys took away the intermediate to deep routes to force the underneath pass then they made sure the runner's did not have anywhere to go beyond the catching point. The Cowboys also effectively shut down the Giants run game. So the only option left to the Giants offense was to play perfect football all the way up the field, which they proved on all but one drive they were not up to the task. That's smart coaching on the Cowboys part.

Had the Cowboys gone for it and failed to convert, the Giants would then only have to drive 15 to 20 yards to be in field goal range. The Cowboys rightfully placed more faith in their offenses ability to drive up the field than their defenses ability to prevent the Giants offense from getting 15 yards. It really is that simple.
 
Last edited:

Shake_Tiller

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,438
Reaction score
1,563
Teams surely will use analytics more and more. And that will probably be a good thing. But football isn't baseball. Consider that the Texans averaged 5.9 yards per passing attempt last year and were the worst team in the league in this category. The Bills, the best in the league in this category, averaged 5.3 yards per rushing attempt. One could argue that teams should pass every down. Of course that's a silly conclusion, but you could make the numbers say that. The league's worst yards/pass total is more than 1/2-yard better than the league's best yards/rush total, and in order to score, teams must move the ball.

In a vacuum, surely it's tempting to say teams ought never punt. By having four downs, a team need average only 2.5 yards/play to make a first down. It's easy to buy the argument that making the game a 2.5 yards/play exercise you're taking a lot of pressure off the offense. But football is a deeply emotional game, and many NFL games are decided by the mistakes the losing team makes rather than by the great plays the winning team makes. A fourth down failure is roughly the equivalent of a turnover (not exactly the same because you're also surrendering the ball by punting). But 40 yards of field position is no small thing.

All that said it does frustrate me when teams punt on 4th and 1 or 2 from the opponents' territory -- particularly inside the 45. Too often the field position gain is 20-25 yards rather than 40 yards. But game situations do mean something. I think Garrett made the correct decisions in this particular game. I think he's been incorrect at other times.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,559
Reaction score
17,903
It sure feels like Garrett punts a ton from the opposition's side of the field, and Sunday night was certainly no exception. We punted four times from Giants territory out of nine total drives. Those fourth downs:
  • 4th and 3 from the Giants 43
  • 4th and 2 from the Giants 44
  • 4th and 7 from the Giants 42
  • 4th and 20 from the Giants 42
The last drive is definitely a punting situation. I'm not sure what the numbers say about the 4th and 7, but I'd go for that with our offense. The first two should be automatic go for it situations unless there is a compelling game situation, which there was not at those points.
wow, the anti-garrett crowd is resorting to a lot of creativity and desperation.I disagree with your assessment whole heartedly. Its a close game. their offense is not playing well. why take a risk and giv e them the ball in a great field position and put the game at risk, by maybe giving up a big play. make them drive the field....you have one of the best punters in the league. pin them down and force them to drive the field. how may 4th down's do you expect to make? what's the percentage of 4th and 2, 4th and 3 and 4th and 7 conversions? and you are playing against a top 5 defense.

you must be a gambling man, so perhaps take more trips to Vegas, I would have done the same thing, punt, punt punt. pin them down. don't take unnecessary risks and allow the momentum to change. this was played and managed perfectly. they scored 3. we won by 16. your comments are wrong.


next thing, the anti-garrett crowd, will say, that he sucks because no coach punts more in a 4th and 3.5 situation between 42 and 45 yard line with 8.56 left on the clock in the 3rd quarter......

this was laughable comments on your part.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,559
Reaction score
17,903
Because the expected points are better if teams go for it in those situations. The first two should have been no-brainers.
I think Bilicheck, would disagree with you. because he has done the same thing.

I think your no brainer...is dumb....too risky. specially with a slim lead, defense playing well and their offense struggling to sustain drives....
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,559
Reaction score
17,903
The data is clear. You go for it. Probably for all three, but certainly for the first two.
where is the data clear? can you provide some data to support your assumption. what's the conversion percentage on 4th and 2? 4th and 3? and 4th and7? what are those percentages against top 15, top 10 and top 5 defenses?

you are making an assertion without any shred of evidence to support it.... you are in quick sand....
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,559
Reaction score
17,903
Data hardly qualifies as data? That's an interesting perspective. How about this?

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html
this is hypothetical, based on a computer projection!! seriously...you are using this as your proof of data? you must be from the madden generation. I would ask Bilicheck for his response. no in fact, I would look what bilicheck did in the same situations and I take that as the proper action....after all he has been to 7 superbowls and won 5. what did the bot do? wow. you are making yourself look silly with this post
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,559
Reaction score
17,903
Maybe those decisions are why it was close in the first place?

Obviously, coaches have to consider other factors than what the percentages say because situations and teams are different. The article wick cited even says as much. However, I do agree in general that coaches, are way too conservative in areas like this. Teams get to be stuck doing things as they have been done, just because that's how it's been done, rather than actually thinking about it and using the available data to make informed decisions. It's why so many people are still returning kickoffs that go into the end zone instead of taking a knee every time. They constantly end up on the wrong side of the 25, but keep doing it anyway.
WOW. maybe if Dak was more accdurate then we would have had a TD instead of kick a field goal...on the one hand you criticized the coach for not going for it on 4th and long from mid field. on the other hand you criticized him for passing the ball when inside the 5..... he is risky, then he is not risky enough.... you just want to criticize, so go ahead, do and move on your merry way. your logic has zero olegs to stand on...it fell apart from the beginning.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC
Messages
31,559
Reaction score
17,903
Except when they went 90 yards for points in the 3rd quarter
yes, one time. forced to drive the field. made one big play and in the end, they couldn't sustain and ended up with a field goal. do you expect NFL offenses to be totally dominated in every quarter, every series, from beginning to the end? even the woeful browns scored a TD against pitssburgh. you don't take one series to make a case....you look at totality of the game. this was a playoff team last year. ...come on, you have to be better than that....
 
Top