Don’t overvalue Cole Beasley

[Nightman]

Before I start, let me say up front that I like Cole Beasley and what he’s done as a Cowboy in his his 7 year NFL career. He has been a good, solid slot receiver. Good. Not great. Most dedicated fans of any team unfortunately tend to overvalue a player they love, blinding them to the details of his performance.

And for that simple reason, along with several others, Cole Beasley should not be resigned here for the future. Let me get specific about the reasons why we should not overvalue Cole Beasley.

1. HIS STATS ARE JUST AVERAGE.
In his 7 years as a Cowboys slot receiver, in 103 games, Cole Beasley has caught 319 passes for 3,271 yards and 23 TDs. That means for his career, Beas averaged 3 catches for 31 yards per game, and averaged 3.2 TDs per season.

Some would argue that his first 2 years in the league he wasn’t a full time player. Ok, let’s take the last 5 seasons then. His 5 year average in 79 games has been 55 receptions for 555 yards. That translates to 3.3 receptions per game for 35 yards in his best 5 years.

Not great.

2. HIS “BEST YEARS” ARE BEHIND HIM
Beas will be 30 as he enters the 2019 season. Looking at his career stats above, I can’t see how it could be argued that he will have better statistical years ahead. As we saw in his stats numbers, he is not exceptional in receiving numbers, yardage or TDs.

Unless your name is Jerry Rice or some other rare ageless talent, NFL history is not kind to receivers 30 and older.

3. THERE WILL BE YOUNGER CHEAPER TALENT AVAILABLE IN DRAFT OR FA
It’s not like there aren’t a lot of younger, talented and less expensive players available. One guy I would love to pick up is 26 year old Adam Humphries from Tampa Bay who has consistently been one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately he will probably garner top dollar, like 4 years at $10 mil per year.

But there are several UFAs who are 24-27, have lots of upside, and are not going to garner big bucks. One example is 25 year old Phillip Dorsett who has played with NE last year and caught 32 passes as a 3rd down specialist in NE. Or there’s 26 year old Chris Conley of KC who caught 32 passs from Pat Mahomes for 5 TDs.

Point is, there will be younger, cheaper talent available in FA and the draft.

Bottom line- Unless Cole Beasley is willing to sign for a lot less than has been floated out there, there is no smart reason to resign him here again. Beas has been a good, reliable slot receiver. But if we’re going to pay him more, we should use that money to sign somebody like Adam Humphries who’s younger and more talented.

Right?

Great post

I will never forget his catch against NY but he is very replaceable..... he is our 5th target at best and that is not worth more than 3m a year

 

[Verdict]

Before I start, let me say up front that I like Cole Beasley and what he’s done as a Cowboy in his his 7 year NFL career. He has been a good, solid slot receiver. Good. Not great. Most dedicated fans of any team unfortunately tend to overvalue a player they love, blinding them to the details of his performance.

And for that simple reason, along with several others, Cole Beasley should not be resigned here for the future. Let me get specific about the reasons why we should not overvalue Cole Beasley.

1. HIS STATS ARE JUST AVERAGE.
In his 7 years as a Cowboys slot receiver, in 103 games, Cole Beasley has caught 319 passes for 3,271 yards and 23 TDs. That means for his career, Beas averaged 3 catches for 31 yards per game, and averaged 3.2 TDs per season.

Some would argue that his first 2 years in the league he wasn’t a full time player. Ok, let’s take the last 5 seasons then. His 5 year average in 79 games has been 55 receptions for 555 yards. That translates to 3.3 receptions per game for 35 yards in his best 5 years.

Not great.

2. HIS “BEST YEARS” ARE BEHIND HIM
Beas will be 30 as he enters the 2019 season. Looking at his career stats above, I can’t see how it could be argued that he will have better statistical years ahead. As we saw in his stats numbers, he is not exceptional in receiving numbers, yardage or TDs.

Unless your name is Jerry Rice or some other rare ageless talent, NFL history is not kind to receivers 30 and older.

3. THERE WILL BE YOUNGER CHEAPER TALENT AVAILABLE IN DRAFT OR FA
It’s not like there aren’t a lot of younger, talented and less expensive players available. One guy I would love to pick up is 26 year old Adam Humphries from Tampa Bay who has consistently been one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately he will probably garner top dollar, like 4 years at $10 mil per year.

But there are several UFAs who are 24-27, have lots of upside, and are not going to garner big bucks. One example is 25 year old Phillip Dorsett who has played with NE last year and caught 32 passes as a 3rd down specialist in NE. Or there’s 26 year old Chris Conley of KC who caught 32 passs from Pat Mahomes for 5 TDs.

Point is, there will be younger, cheaper talent available in FA and the draft.

Bottom line- Unless Cole Beasley is willing to sign for a lot less than has been floated out there, there is no smart reason to resign him here again. Beas has been a good, reliable slot receiver. But if we’re going to pay him more, we should use that money to sign somebody like Adam Humphries who’s younger and more talented.

Right?

I think he "could" have better stats some where else and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.

Having said that, he's not "worth" a lot to us and I wouldn't pay him more than he's currently making. He is replaceable. Austin may be his replacement.

 

[Verdict]

With the futures of Allen Hurns (injury), Tavon Austin, and Cole Beasley free agency pending, will Dallas seek vet free agent help or draft a burner to compliment Amari Cooper? - JOSÉ MUÑOZ / CLOVIS, CA

Rob: Hurns is expected to make a full recovery from his ankle injury, but yes, I think a shifty slot receiver could be an under-the-radar draft need depending on what happens with Beasley and Austin. A little like Terrance Williams a couple of years ago, it’s hard to know what the market will look like for Beasley. Austin has a lot of talent, but injury reduced his role this season.

Bryan: I believe they would look to adding a slot player more than your burner. They have guys that can get down the field. Keep an eye in the draft on Dillon Mitchell (Oregon) and Andy Isabella (UMass) as possible selections.
https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/mailbag-how-active-in-free-agency-wr-plan?sf206219042=1

TWill needs to be gone immediately. What a poor resigning.

 

[Bobhaze]

The one thing we can't afford to do is to undervalue the receiver position like we did entering this season.

Cooper is here for at least a year, and longer if we extend him.

Gallup has seized the No. 2 role and we've got him for another three years.

Hurns is decent depth for those outside spots, but is coming off injury and is expensive as a No. 3 or No. 4 at $6.25 million. Williams is kind of in the same boat at $4.75 million. Noah Brown is under contract through 2020, but I don't know if he could step up for a bigger role if needed. We have absolutely no idea on Wilson at this point.

So we're down to Austin and Beasley, our two slot receivers. Austin can play the outside as well as the slot, but I have no idea what kind of deal he's going to be seeking. Beasley is strictly a slot receiver who can work over that underneath coverage if teams aren't able to bracket him.

In my opinion, we absolutely need to bring back two of these four (Austin, Hurns, Beasley and Williams) in order to have quality depth and solid options for when we go four-wide. I'd lean toward Austin and Beasley/Hurns. That way we have two players who can play the slot (Austin, Beasley/Hurns) and three to four who can start on the outside (Cooper, Gallup and Austin, and Hurns if kept over Beasley). Brown continues his primarily blocking role and then we see if Wilson can challenge to move up in the pecking order.

Are you just looking at what’s currently on the roster? Are there not other receivers out there that are as good or better?

 

[Doomsday101]

TWill needs to be gone immediately. What a poor resigning.

I agree. Having said that I was surprised by his action since I can't recall any off the field issue with Williams but none the less let this team down. I will not make excuses of anxiety or bi polar, Cowboys needed him and he failed this team. I have not heard much coming from the Cowboys on Williams, I know he is in his last year of his contract that pays 4 mill. Be interested to see what they do.

 

[charron]

Once Cole turned down the extension the Cowboys had offered I thought he should have been traded.

 

[RS12]

Don’t overvalue Cole Beasley

Why would they? There are 10 Cole Beasleys in every draft.

 

[Cmac]

Enter Hunter Renfrow.

Switzer 2.0 again?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

If he leaves I hope he get a huge contract
Comp pick
I don’t know that the market will be what he thinks
He’s a good slot guy but brings nothing else
I like humphries because he has some return skills
Beasley can get open but he’s also getting some age on him and rarely gets many yards after the catch

Yeah at best I can see a Amendola contract...but I don’t even see that.

 

[BigD_95]

I'm actually a big Beasley guy. I think his poor numbers have to do more with QB play then him. With that said, I do not think Dallas should over pay here. I would let him test the market and maybe match a contract if it is not too high. I just hope Dallas has a actual plan B if he does sign elsewhere. And for the record Austin is not a plan B.

 

[DuceizBak]

Hurn will replace him more than likely. People forget that just because Hurn is 6'3 that he's an outside receiver...when he's a slot guy. I'll always like Beasley, to do what he has done as a late round pick is remarkable.

 

[Bobhaze]

Hurn will replace him more than likely. People forget that just because Hurn is 6'3 that he's an outside receiver...when he's a slot guy. I'll always like Beasley, to do what he has done as a late round pick is remarkable.

Beasley actually was not drafted. He was an undrafted FA in 2012.

 

[Clove]

Keep him if you can. There is nothing like chemistry, and now we have 3 receivers that have a chance to have serious chemistry. Just make something work for both parties.

 

[bodi]

why a we now have coop and Gallup that can run slants - I wouldn't even talk to him

 

[Nightman]

Hurn will replace him more than likely. People forget that just because Hurn is 6'3 that he's an outside receiver...when he's a slot guy. I'll always like Beasley, to do what he has done as a late round pick is remarkable.

no way.... not for 6m

 

[Bobhaze]

I'm actually a big Beasley guy. I think his poor numbers have to do more with QB play then him. With that said, I do not think Dallas should over pay here. I would let him test the market and maybe match a contract if it is not too high. I just hope Dallas has a actual plan B if he does sign elsewhere. And for the record Austin is not a plan B.

Beasley had 87 targets this year and 98 targets in 2016, which is more targets than he ever had when Romo was here. Saying the QB doesn’t get him the ball is just not true when you look at the opportunities Beasley has had with Dak.

 

[cowboyec]

·Cedrick Wilson

·Andy Issabella,Umass
·Riley Ridley,Georgia
·Parris Campbell,Ohio St
·Hunter Renfrow,Clemson
·Emmanuel Hall,Missouri
·Tony Pollard,Memphis

 

[buybuydandavis]

Bottom line- Unless Cole Beasley is willing to sign for a lot less than has been floated out there, there is no smart reason to resign him here again. Beas has been a good, reliable slot receiver. But if we’re going to pay him more, we should use that money to sign somebody like Adam Humphries who’s younger and more talented.

Right?

Beasley is simply a very bad fit for our team. He is worth more elsewhere. Worth more on a pass first team with a QB who can execute as quickly a he can. Worth more elsewhere means he should be elsewhere. If we are the highest bidder, we made a mistake, or the whole league did.

I disagree some with your minimization of Beasley's talents. On the right team, he'd be gold. His 2016 production could have been typical, instead of the outlier. But we haven't been the right team for him, and won't be in the future either.

 

[Doomsday]

Stats don't measure his worth.

If he played in NE he would have had close to 80 catches. We are the only team in the league who doesn't believe in maximizing our points scored.

Let him go play in NE then, would like to see Dallas go in a different direction.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Beasley had 87 targets this year and 98 targets in 2016, which is more targets than he ever had when Romo was here. Saying the QB doesn’t get him the ball is just not true when you look at the opportunities Beasley has had with Dak.

Dez, Witten, and DeMarco ate up the targets in 2014. Cole only got 40% of the snaps.

Cole was ranked 13th in the league for Football Outsiders DVOA
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2014

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.​

2015 blew, as one might expect.

But then Beasley was ranked 5th in the league across their 3 custom stats in 2016.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2016

Extremely high catch rate. Converts 3rd downs.

2017, Beasley was the guy who got doubled, and his numbers were down.

He's a great 3rd. Beats single coverage reliably. Catches reliably. But not a guy to beat double coverage.