Drafting a first round QB

[StuckMojo]

Dude we aren’t drafting a QB in the first round. Dak will get a new deal and be our QB for the next 10 years. Now what we need to do is keep building that defense and refortifying that offensive line. Oh yea, and get a real NFL head coach!

It may be hard to build a D after Dak's and Cooper's contracts

 

[cowboygo]

It may be hard to build a D after Dak's and Cooper's contracts

Yes, but the hope is Dak continues to progress and become a better QB. If Dak were to re-enter the draft, he'd be a 1st rounder.

 

[StuckMojo]

Yes, but the hope is Dak continues to progress and become a better QB. If Dak were to re-enter the draft, he'd be a 1st rounder.

I hope he continues to progress( I wish that for every Dallas player) as well. A lot of money will be spent on offense between Dak, Zeke, Cooper and the Oline, but want to see a Doomsday Defense again in Dallas.

 

[DFWJC]

Forgetting the useless debate on who ranks where, I agree with the OP.
Not anywhere near a sure thing.

I would guess that in the next two years, Tua and Lawrence are good bets. But they are top 5 guys, so basically unattainable without throwing away a couple of drafts.

Have been assaying it all along...Dak is getting paid. Period.

 

[HungryLion]

Great post. I saw this on my phone and thought about it, I have a couple of reactions.

Number one is exactly your point in the OP, 8 of the 14 QBs taken in the top five of the draft are clearly inferior players to Dak. So your point is spot on, I also think Dak is better than Goff and Wentz, which would make the number 70%. But that is subjective in the case of Goff and Wentz, just like you say.

If you extend the draft picks from the Top 5 to the Top 10, the numbers look even better for Dak.

Its also something that changes over time. Stafford is better than Dak is right now but he wasn't until he was into the middle of his career before he played at that level consistently. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and he never saw the field for his first three seasons in the NFL.

When you take out Tom Brady, a black swan draft event that happens once every 30 years, you really have a small group of top QBs that didn't cost the massive draft and salary haul of a Goff or Wentz. That really shows the amazing value they are getting from Prescott as a 4th round comp pick.

And on top of that, Dak's leadership, durability and ability to perform from day one make him even more valuable than his stat line shows.

Good points Kaiser.

I honestly didn’t fully realize how often first round QB’s bust out completely until I went back and looked. The first round is littered with not just mediocre QB’s. But ones who were just plain bad in the NFL.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

It's a money thing. Taking a QB high might be a smart thing to do regardless of your, somewhat dubious percentages here. If you are not going to pay Dak what he wants and he is not going to play and is set on hitting the open market, then what choice? You gotta have QB and Cooper Rush ain't it so the question is not the "Statistics". The question is, should we prepare to move on or not?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Forgetting the useless debate on who ranks where, I agree with the OP.
Not anywhere near a sure thing.

I would guess that in the next two years, Tua and Lawrence are good bets. But they are top 5 guys, so basically unattainable without throwing away a couple of drafts.

Have been assaying it all along...Dak is getting paid. Period.

I'm telling you right now DFW, that kid down in Georgia, he's going to be a much better Pro QB then College QB and he's already a pretty darn good College QB, IMO.

 

[SackMaster]

It's a money thing. Taking a QB high might be a smart thing to do regardless of your, somewhat dubious percentages here. If you are not going to pay Dak what he wants and he is not going to play and is set on hitting the open market, then what choice? You gotta have QB and Cooper Rush ain't it so the question is not the "Statistics". The question is, should we prepare to move on or not?

A team should ALWAYS have a plan in place to move on when it comes to players.

The teams can't force a player to sign, so if they are not willing to give up what a player is willing to play for, then that player is gone and if the replacement is not already on the roster, something needs to be done.

Do teams always achieve the desired results with the replacement players? Nope. But that is because there is just not enough starting caliber <enter position here> to go around for every team in the NFL.

No matter what, you will have what fans consider "sub-par" players playing significant time for that team. It is up to the coaches to coach them up and put them in positions to succeed or not get exposed.

JMHO

 

[HungryLion]

It's a money thing. Taking a QB high might be a smart thing to do regardless of your, somewhat dubious percentages here. If you are not going to pay Dak what he wants and he is not going to play and is set on hitting the open market, then what choice? You gotta have QB and Cooper Rush ain't it so the question is not the "Statistics". The question is, should we prepare to move on or not?

dubious percentages? What’s dubious about the percentages?

 

[Zman5]

When drafting a QB's in the 5th round, of course a team is likely to be terrible. Don't let the fact that Dak was a 4th rounder, or that Minshew was a late rounder fool you into believing it's easy to find a quality late round QB any time a team wants. It's not even that easy finding one in the 1st round - many 1st rounders fail. But a hell of a lot higher % of 5th rounders fail.

I'm saying that they did try and failed. And the fact that they wanted Lynch and Cook before getting lucky with Dak, I doubt they can pick a good QB even using a 1st round pick.

 

[reddyuta]

This teams scouting of QBs doesnt inspire confidence,they had Connor freaking ahead of Dak and would have taken him too.

 

[Kaiser]

Good points Kaiser.

I honestly didn’t fully realize how often first round QB’s bust out completely until I went back and looked. The first round is littered with not just mediocre QB’s. But ones who were just plain bad in the NFL.

Exactly, the Perfect is the enemy of the good. If Dak never hits the ceiling of being what Aaron Rodgers is today he is still a winner and a bargain over the course of his career.

PS - we are still Daktards!!!

 

[Kaiser]

This teams scouting of QBs doesnt inspire confidence,they had Connor freaking ahead of Dak and would have taken him too.

But everyone did. And Dallas still had Dak rated higher than anyone else.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

dubious percentages? What’s dubious about the percentages?

Dak, you are not stupid and I don't take you to be so. The failure of QBs in any given draft, particularly top 5 picks, are heavily influenced by the situations they are drafted into. This skews the numbers tremendously and we all know this. You can't do a one size fits all, based on the percentages you suggest. Not only that but, the evaluations are extremely subjective so yes, the term dubious, IE: hesitating, doubting, suspect, fit. Dak, you know good and well that the minute you start an ad hoc evaluation of QBs, it puts the percentages in doubt. Now, having said this, I thought the discussion was about the wisdom of drafting a QB in the first round, or I would say at any point in the upcoming draft. Truth is, we should have been drafting good QB talent all along but we don't do that. We draft scrubs because we don't want to bring in any real competition at QB. I don't believe in that. I believe that we should be bringing in the best possible talent at any given time, at any position. Players should be competing for their jobs at all times but we don't do it that way in Dallas.

 

[OmerV]

I'm saying that they did try and failed. And the fact that they wanted Lynch and Cook before getting lucky with Dak, I doubt they can pick a good QB even using a 1st round pick.

I know you are saying that, but you also said they failed "miserably" and were terrible at drafting QB's. My point was that White did not represent anything close to a best effort at drafting a QB. He was more of a guy they were taking a chance on hoping he could develop. 5th round is hit or miss really at any position.

 

[HungryLion]

Dak, you are not stupid and I don't take you to be so. The failure of QBs in any given draft, particularly top 5 picks, are heavily influenced by the situations they are drafted into. This skews the numbers tremendously and we all know this. You can't do a one size fits all, based on the percentages you suggest. Not only that but, the evaluations are extremely subjective so yes, the term dubious, IE: hesitating, doubting, suspect, fit. Dak, you know good and well that the minute you start an ad hoc evaluation of QBs, it puts the percentages in doubt. Now, having said this, I thought the discussion was about the wisdom of drafting a QB in the first round, or I would say at any point in the upcoming draft. Truth is, we should have been drafting good QB talent all along but we don't do that. We draft scrubs because we don't want to bring in any real competition at QB. I don't believe in that. I believe that we should be bringing in the best possible talent at any given time, at any position. Players should be competing for their jobs at all times but we don't do it that way in Dallas.

Sure the results get skewed a little bit by what teams players are on. That goes for every single statistic in every single sport. So, based on your current description every stat in every sport is dubious, since none of them are acquired in a vacuum.

Most of us are able to evaluate based on more than just statistics. Most of us are able to evaluate while accounting for the difference in scenario.

If you care to list the QB’s who I currently stated as not being as good as Dak, that you think could have or would have been as good as Dak if put into the same situation, I encourage you to do so and then adjust the % accordingly.

in the meantime, I will maintain my argument that finding a QB as good as Dak has been, is a very tough challenge.

I also at no point argue against drafting more QB talent in my post. I am merely trying to gain a realistic viewpoint on what the difficulty of finding a better QB would be.

yes the team should be always trying to improve in every way possible. That honestly goes without saying.

where the disagreement can lie, is how best the team can use it’s limited resources. Would letting Dak walk and using a first rounder on a QB be a wise decision or not? What are the odds of such a move, working out and benefitting the cowboys? What are the risks?

That is the point of the post.


I don’t think it’s correct to call any stat or my percentages dubious. Because If you do it in the way you just did. Literally every stat in all of sports is dubious due to every player being in a different situation than other players. But again, I welcome you to name which QB’s you think I was wrong about and would have as much success as Dak has, in the same circumstance.

 

[JohnsKey19]

No guarantee with drafting a QB, but you let the next coach decide what they want to do at that position.

This makes perfect sense...everywhere but Dallas.

 

[Zman5]

I know you are saying that, but you also said they failed "miserably" and were terrible at drafting QB's. My point was that White did not represent anything close to a best effort at drafting a QB. He was more of a guy they were taking a chance on hoping he could develop. 5th round is hit or miss really at any position.

That was response to post saying we haven't drafted QBs to replace Rush. I'm saying we did with Mike White.

 

[doomsday9084]

if you think at least 50% of the QB’s listed, on their rookie deals, would be better than Dak at 33 million. That’s fine. I would say it’s wrong. Considering over 50% of the QB’s listed sucked in the NFL. But you’re free to feel that way.

That's really the question though. There are probably a small number of people that wouldn't want Dak at any price but that's a really small number of people and IMO, its irrational. I think the bigger issue is that "fair market value" is overpaid for all QB's and it makes it near impossible to put together a championship level team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Bowl_starting_quarterbacks
Going back 20 years or so, I think that the only two QB's to win a superbowl who were on a "fair market value" extension were Peyton in 2015 and Eli in 2011 and I might be wrong about Eli. Its stunning that most of those guys were actually on their rookie deals at the time (or Brady's discount) and I don't think its a coincidence. I didn't go into much depth on it but a quick glance makes me think that most of the super bowl losing QB's were also on rookie deals.

 

[LandryFan]

Basically you have to play it like the Chiefs did, develop who you've got and be willing to pounce when opportunity knocks. Who knows, maybe Dak gets over that hump, he's a better player this year than last.

I highly doubt that KC knew what they were getting when they drafted Mahomes. If they knew, they would have traded every possible asset to move up to ensure they got him. They got very lucky, in a sense...which is kind of the point of the thread...drafting QB's is a crap shoot. Some days you eat the snake, some days the snake eats you.