Drafting QBs in the first round

[mattjames2010]

What's your plan to get us to a Super bowl? Anything beyond finding a franchise QB to replace the fragile Romo is stupidity, so I guess you have no legitimate plan.

I'm telling you, drafting a QB in THIS draft isn't going to get us a Super Bowl. You guys think this is going to be some Aaron Rodgers/Steve Young situation, he'll develop and get us a ring. Here's an idea, when Romo decides to hang it up, we draft a QB then. You really believe there won't be some mediocre QB prospect in the next few years? These aren't must grab QBs.

This "We must draft a QB in the 2016 draft" isn't holding up under scrutiny.

 

[reddyuta]

You're going to have to be more specific.

by your definition he is no good and probably worthless now that he older and injury prone.so why do we even have him then?.

 

[Avery]

Here's the entire draft history of QB's the past ten years outside of round 1. I highlighted anyone in green that is a current starter (sans an injury to an existing starter of course).

There's a few guys in here that have started a game here and there throughout the years, but if you're looking for a starting QB for the long haul, chances are you're not going to find one.

That doesn't mean that you have to draft a QB in round one; if one isn't worth 4th overall, you don't take one at #4, but it's premature at this point to say that Goff or Lynch aren't the 4th best players in this draft. The facts simply show that drafting a QB in the first round is going to yield a lower bust rate than any other round which is how it should be.

2014236Derek CarrQBFresno StateOakland Raiders
2014262Jimmy GaroppoloQBEastern IllinoisNew England Patriots
20144120Logan ThomasQBVirginia TechArizona Cardinals
20144135Tom SavageQBPittsburghHouston Texans
20145163Aaron MurrayQBGeorgiaKansas City Chiefs
20145164AJ McCarronQBAlabamaCincinnati Bengals
20146178Zach MettenbergerQBLSUTennessee Titans
20146183David FalesQBSan Jose StateChicago Bears
20146194Keith WenningQBBall StateBaltimore Ravens
20146213Tajh BoydQBClemsonNew York Jets
20146214Garrett GilbertQBSouthern MethodistSt. Louis Rams
2013239Geno SmithQBWest VirginiaNew York Jets
2013373Mike GlennonQBNorth Carolina StateTampa Bay Buccaneers
2013498Matt BarkleyQBUSCPhiladelphia Eagles
20134110Ryan NassibQBSyracuseNew York Giants
20134112Tyler WilsonQBArkansasOakland Raiders
20134115Landry JonesQBOklahomaPittsburgh Steelers
20137221Brad SorensenQBSouthern UtahSan Diego Chargers
20137234Zac DysertQBMiami (Ohio)Denver Broncos
20137237B.J. DanielsQBSouth FloridaSan Francisco 49ers
20137249Sean RenfreeQBDukeAtlanta Falcons
2012257Brock OsweilerQBArizona StateDenver Broncos
2012375Russell WilsonQBWisconsinSeattle Seahawks
2012388Nick FolesQBArizonaPhiladelphia Eagles
20124102Kirk CousinsQBMichigan StateWashington Commanders
20126185Ryan LindleyQBSan Diego StateArizona Cardinals
20127243B.J. ColemanQBTennessee-ChattanoogaGreen Bay Packers
20127253Chandler HarnishQBNorthern IllinoisIndianapolis Colts
2011235Andy DaltonQBTexas ChristianCincinnati Bengals
2011236Colin KaepernickQBNevada-RenoSan Francisco 49ers
2011374Ryan MallettQBArkansasNew England Patriots
20115135Ricky StanziQBIowaKansas City Chiefs
20115152T.J YatesQBNorth CarolinaHouston Texans
20115160Nathan EnderleQBIdahoChicago Bears
20116180Tyrod TaylorQBVirginia TechBaltimore Ravens
20117208Greg McElroyQBAlabamaNew
2010248Jimmy ClausenQBNotre DameCarolina Panthers
2010385Colt McCoyQBTexasCleveland Browns
20104122Mike KafkaQBNorthwesternPhiladelphia Eagles
20105155John SkeltonQBFordhamArizona Cardinals
20105168Jonathan CromptonQBTennesseeSan Diego Chargers
20106176Rusty SmithQBFlorida AtlanticTennessee Titans
20106181Dan LeFevourQBCentral MichiganChicago Bears
20106199Joe WebbQBAlabama-BirminghamMinnesota Vikings
20106204Tony PikeQBCincinnatiCarolina Panthers
20107209Levi BrownQBTroyBuffalo Bills
20107239Sean CanfieldQBOregon StateNew Orleans Saints
20107250Zac RobinsonQBOklahoma StateNew England Patriots
2009244Pat WhiteQBWest VirginiaMiami Dolphins
20094101Stephen McGeeQBTexas A&MDallas Cowboys
20095151Rhett BomarQBSam Houston StateNew York Giants
20095171Nate DavisQBBall StateSan Francisco 49ers
20096174Tom BrandstaterQBFresno StateDenver Broncos
20096178Mike TeelQBRutgersSeattle Seahawks
20096196Keith NullQBWest Texas A&MSt. Louis Rams
20096201Curtis PainterQBPurdueIndianapolis Colts
2008257Chad HenneQBMichiganMiami Dolphins
2008394Kevin O'ConnellQBSan Diego StateNew England Patriots
20085137John David BootyQBUSCMinnesota Vikings
20085156Dennis DixonQBOregonPittsburgh Steelers
20085160Josh JohnsonQBSan DiegoTampa Bay Buccaneers
20085162Erik AingeQBTennesseeNew York Jets
20086186Colt BrennanQBHawaiiWashington Commanders
20086198Andre WoodsonQBKentuckyNew York Giants
20087209Matt FlynnQBLouisiana StateGreen Bay Packers
20087223Alex BrinkQBWashington StateHouston Texans
2007236Kevin KolbQBHoustonPhiladelphia Eagles
2007240John BeckQBBrigham YoungMiami Dolphins
2007243Drew StantonQBMichigan StateDetroit Lions
2007392Trent EdwardsQBStanfordBuffalo Bills
20075151Jeff RoweQBNevada-RenoCincinnati Bengals
20075174Troy SmithQBOhio StateBaltimore Ravens
20076205Jordan PalmerQBTexas-El PasoWashington Commanders
20077217Tyler ThigpenQBCoastal CarolinaMinnesota Vikings
2006249Kellen ClemensQBOregonNew York Jets
2006264Tarvaris JacksonQBAlabama StateMinnesota Vikings
2006381Charlie WhitehurstQBClemsonSan Diego Chargers
2006385Brodie CroyleQBAlabamaKansas City Chiefs
20065148Ingle MartinQBFurmanGreen Bay Packers
20065164Omar JacobsQBBowling Green StatePittsburgh Steelers
20066194Bruce GradkowskiQBToledoTampa Bay Buccaneers
20067223D.J. ShockleyQBGeorgiaAtlanta Falcons

 

[reddyuta]

I'm telling you, drafting a QB in THIS draft isn't going to get us a Super Bowl. You guys think this is going to be some Aaron Rodgers/Steve Young situation, he'll develop and get us a ring. Here's an idea, when Romo decides to hang it up, we draft a QB then. You really believe there won't be some mediocre QB prospect in the next few years? These aren't must grab QBs.

This "We must draft a QB in the 2016 draft" isn't holding up under scrutiny.

will you promise that we can get this magical Qb when romo retires? will we also have a top 5 pick to go along with it?

 

[IAmLegend]

Couldn't disagree more. We're likely not going to have another top 5 pick for a long time. Romo is almost 36 and breaking down quickly. This is a great opportunity to draft a QB if we really like one and let him sit for a year or two and really learn the system before succeeding Romo. It's a great opportunity and one that shouldn't be passed up imo.

No one thinks it's going to magically solve all of the Cowboys issues. It's obviously not, but we're 100% bound to fail if we don't have an NFL-caliber QB leading our team, as we saw this season. Statistics show that drafting a QB in the 1st round has a much higher success rate than drafting one in the other 6 rounds combined. I don't see how you can argue against that.

 

[mattjames2010]

That is what keeps the boys a 500 team for 20 years. That worked fantastic when Troy was done!

Uh, no. Our problem wasn't that we didn't draft his replacement BEFORE he retired, the problem was we drafted and signed pet projects at the QB position.

Not many teams draft their future QB before their franchise QB retires. Franchise QBs are tough to find, you get one, you build a team around that franchise QB until you know they are done.

 

[Carson]

For craps a giggles. Breakdown of all 32 teams and QBs

NFC East
Dallas - Tony Romo, Undrafted
New York - Eli Manning, First Round
Philly - Sam Bradford, First Round
Washington - Kirk Cousins, Fourth Round

NFC North
Chicago - Jay Cutler, First Round
Detroit - Matthew Stafford, First Round
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, First Round
Minnesota - Teddy Bridgewater, First Round

NFC South
Atlanta - Matt Ryan, First Round
Carolina - Cam Newton, First Round
New Orleans - Drew Brees, Second Round
Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston, First Round

NFC West
Arizona - Carson Palmer, First Round
San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, First Round / Colin Kapernick, Second Round
St. Louis - Nick Foles, Third Round / Case Keenum, Undrafted
Seattle - Russell Wilson, Third Round

AFC East
Buffalo - Tyrod Taylor, Sixth Round
Miami - Ryan Tannehill, First Round
New England - Tom Brady, Sixth Round
New York - Geno Smith, Second Round / Ryan Fitzpatrick, Seventh Round

AFC North
Baltimore - Joe Flacco, First Round
Cincy - Andy Dalton, Second Round
Cleveland - Who knows lol.
Pittsburgh -Ben Roethlisberger, First Round

AFC South
Houston - Brian Hoyer, Undrafted
Indy - Andrew Luck, First Round
Jacksonville - Blake Bortles, First Round
Tennessee - Marcus Mariota, First Round

AFC West
Denver - Peyton Manning, First Round / Brock Osweiler, Second round
KC - Alex Smith, First Round
Oakland - Derek Carr, Second Round
San Diego - Philip Rivers, First Round

That's 22 of 32 with QB's drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. Add another if you count Manziel. The Bills also spent a first on EJ Manuel, same with the Skins and RGIII. So that is 25 of 32 teams with 1st/2nd round draft picks on QB's.

If any of that is incorrect feel free to correct me. A few beers to many.

 

[jazzcat22]

Haha, and drafting a QB that will be on the bench for two or three years will be our way to the promised land?

Yes!!!

 

[LatinMind]

The obsession with drafting a QB in the first round as a cure all never seems to die. Here is a list of QBs drafting in the first round since Romo became a starter in 2006.

2014
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater

2013
EJ Manuel

2012
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden

2011
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

2009
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco

2007
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn

2006
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler

On this list the only two really good QBs are Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, and Newton might have been run out of town before this year (he has a great defense helping him as well). Andrew Luck has not been as good as advertised. Matt Ryan is pretty good. Almost all of these players are complete failures though.

We have a chance to get a really dynamic player on offense and defense, someone who could actually help the team immediately, or we could trade down and get multiple quality players, and people want to reach for underwhelming QBs because we don't have a quality backup?

That's ridiculous.

Lol don't bother with this masses. Let them live in misery like the ones in the previous 2 yrs. last ur they wanted a rb and knew Dallas going to draft one. The ur before that they just knew it was dt. This team tells you what they're going to do. i do think they will draft a qb but it won't be in rd1. A wise team with a franchise qb already would wait to see if a call comes. And would pounce on a deal to add more picks.

 

[Clove]

I'm telling you, drafting a QB in THIS draft isn't going to get us a Super Bowl. You guys think this is going to be some Aaron Rodgers/Steve Young situation, he'll develop and get us a ring. Here's an idea, when Romo decides to hang it up, we draft a QB then. You really believe there won't be some mediocre QB prospect in the next few years? These aren't must grab QBs.

This "We must draft a QB in the 2016 draft" isn't holding up under scrutiny.

We don't need Aaron Rodgers or Steve Young to win a Super Bowl. We need a smart, accurate, strong armed QB that makes quick decisions. That's it. All these other positions we can pick up later on in the draft. The top two QBs are more than capable of getting the job done. And if not, we try it again. What part of "FRANCHISE QB" do people not understand? We need one that is young and ready, and you have no CLUE if these QBs will rate out. What makes you think drafting a RB or DT is going to do anything special for us?

 

[LatinMind]

For craps a giggles. Breakdown of all 32 teams and QBs

NFC East
Dallas - Tony Romo, Undrafted
New York - Eli Manning, First Round
Philly - Sam Bradford, First Round
Washington - Kirk Cousins, Fourth Round

NFC North
Chicago - Jay Cutler, First Round
Detroit - Matthew Stafford, First Round
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, First Round
Minnesota - Teddy Bridgewater, First Round

NFC South
Atlanta - Matt Ryan, First Round
Carolina - Cam Newton, First Round
New Orleans - Drew Brees, Second Round
Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston, First Round

NFC West
Arizona - Carson Palmer, First Round
San Francisco - Blaine Gabbert, First Round / Colin Kapernick, Second Round
St. Louis - Nick Foles, Third Round / Case Keenum, Undrafted
Seattle - Russell Wilson, Third Round

AFC East
Buffalo - Tyrod Taylor, Sixth Round
Miami - Ryan Tannehill, First Round
New England - Tom Brady, Sixth Round
New York - Geno Smith, Second Round / Ryan Fitzpatrick, Seventh Round

AFC North
Baltimore - Joe Flacco, First Round
Cincy - Andy Dalton, Second Round
Cleveland - Who knows lol.
Pittsburgh -Ben Roethlisberger, First Round

AFC South
Houston - Brian Hoyer, Undrafted
Indy - Andrew Luck, First Round
Jacksonville - Blake Bortles, First Round
Tennessee - Marcus Mariota, First Round

AFC West
Denver - Peyton Manning, First Round / Brock Osweiler, Second round
KC - Alex Smith, First Round
Oakland - Derek Carr, First Round
San Diego - Philip Rivers, First Round

That's 22 of 32 with QB's drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. Add another if you count Manziel. The Bills also spent a first on EJ Manuel, same with the Skins and RGIII. So that is 25 of 32 teams with 1st/2nd round draft picks on QB's.

If any of that is incorrect feel free to correct me. A few beers to many.

How many of them are actually good?

 

[darthseinfeld]

We traded up to get him. It wasn't just the pick we used, it was what we paid to get to it.

I don't recall Escobar being rated as a 2nd rounder.

We also traded up to get Lawrence.

Technicaly by the chart we got value in the Claiborne trade. Should have cost us an 2nd and 4th instead of a 2nd

And besides that has nothing to do with reaching. Reaching is taking a player way before they were supposed to go

 

[Clove]

will you promise that we can get this magical Qb when romo retires? will we also have a top 5 pick to go along with it?

Not only that, when is a good time, and what makes them think even then that the QB will work out? We all know it's a crap shoot, but if you don't try, you're guaranteed to be sitting home year after year watching other teams play in the Super Bowl. I hope Jones wakes up and understands how important a top QB is. Teams that quit trying to find one, or try to gamble on one in the later rounds are fools. Yeah, you can get lucky, but put the odds in your favor and draft one top of the 1st.

 

[Avery]

How many of them are actually good?

A lot of them aren't, but they're better than the 2nd/3rd stringers.

There's only a handful of really good QB's in the league; we happen to have one on our team, but not for much longer.

 

[mattjames2010]

will you promise that we can get this magical Qb when romo retires? will we also have a top 5 pick to go along with it?

Why do we need a "top 5" pick? Unless we do something stupid, we should have a first round pick.

Again, these two QBs in this draft are nothing special. I am telling you, when Romo hangs it up, there will be 3-4 QBs projected in the first or early second with the talent level of the two in this draft. The last 5 QBs to win the Super Bowl

Aaron Rodgers - First Round, pick 24
Eli Manning - First round, pick 1
Joe Flacco - First round, pick 18
Russel Wilson - Third Round, pick 75
Tom Brady - Sixth Round

Go back a little further than that, how many QBs that won a Super Bowl were top 5 picks?

 

[reddyuta]

We don't need Aaron Rodgers or Steve Young to win a Super Bowl. We need a smart, accurate, strong armed QB that makes quick decisions. That's it. All these other positions we can pick up later on in the draft. The top two QBs are more than capable of getting the job done. And if not, we try it again. What part of "FRANCHISE QB" do people not understand? We need one that is young and ready, and you have no CLUE if these QBs will rate out. What makes you think drafting a RB or DT is going to do anything special for us?

seriously,this should not even be a debate.its like all these guys have bought Jerrys spiel about not drafting Qbs and they have stuck with it even when both Jerry and Stephen seem to have changed their mind.

 

[reddyuta]

Why do we need a "top 5" pick? Unless we do something stupid, we should have a first round pick.

Again, these two QBs in this draft are nothing special. I am telling you, when Romo hangs it up, there will be 3-4 QBs projected in the first or early second with the talent level of the two in this draft. The last 5 QBs to win the Super Bowl

Aaron Rodgers - First Round, pick 24
Eli Manning - First round, pick 1
Joe Flacco - First round, pick 18
Russel Wilson - Third Round, pick 75
Tom Brady - Sixth Round

Go back a little further than that, how many QBs that won a Super Bowl were top 5 picks?

i dont buy it.if anything college QBs are getting worse,i think it will be harder to train these guys to be NFL QBs.heck most play in the shotgun exclusively.

 

[Clove]

seriously,this should not even be a debate.its like all these guys have bought Jerrys spiel about not drafting Qbs and they have stuck with it even when both Jerry and Stephen seem to have changed their mind.

And here we are 20 years in. We are two freaking decades because we don't have a legitimate QB with pedigree who can take us places. I respect what Romo's done, especially after what I've seen this year, but now Romo is closing in on the end of his career. 2nd round, we can pick up a RB or DT and 3rd round vice a versa. We can get a speed receiver in FA and CB.

Right now, we need to get a QB, we may not see top 4 for 6 years. We may pick a QB 2nd round, but you increase your odds with this 4th pick. I don't care what stats people throw out, this is what we need to do for the future.

With a RB in the 2nd or 3rd, we can still compete with Romo at the helm while our fresh new QB sits back and learn from a very good/capable veteran QB.

 

[erod]

Agreed.

Sometimes there just isn't a good quarterback in the draft. It's a bear trap most of thetime.

 

[AdamJT13]

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Basing any draft decision on how other players have turned out or not turned out is shortsighted. You base it on your scouting of these players in this draft. If your scouts say Player X is worthy of the No. 4 overall pick, you don't bypass Player X just because Player C didn't work out for some other team back in 2011 or whatever. Either you trust your scouts or not. If not, get new scouts. Don't ignore your own scouting because of someone else's failures.