ESPN Insider: How Dak Prescott compares to past stud rookie quarterbacks - 2016 NFL

[mrmojo]

The old Romo could have done what Aikman did rears its ugly head again. Romo is a very good QB but Aikman was at another level during those runs.

 

[Dale]

Prescott wants nothing to do with the middle of the field other than quick slants and turnarounds. He stays on the edges. Elite quarterbacks make their money deep down the middle where it can get ugly. Long balls down the sideline carry little risk, and they don't require a "read".

A screen pass that goes 83 yards looks great on the stat sheet, but it's not really a QB play. Dak is doing PHENOMENAL for a rookie. But he inherited a PERFECT offense.

I'm not against giving the team to Dak at this point, but that pretty much ends this team's championship hopes for this year.

I don't think the statistical analysis pieces that have been posted support this. For an anecdotal piece, Dilfer praised Dak on MNF the other night for this very thing, as he highlighted how Dak dominates the middle of the field and noted that is the harder thing to do as a QB.

 

[Dale]

Exactly. It's one thing to say a player HAS a great supporting cast, it's an entirely different issue to have that player TAKE ADVANTAGE of it. All this dismissal of what Dak is doing smells of the old criticism of emmitt. Fact is, every other back that ran behind the Great Wall in the 90's looked pedestrian compared to Emmitt. But still Emmitt lives with the stigma that "yeah he was good and all but that offensive line..." blah blah blah. Emmitt MADE that line just as much as they made him. And the same will be said about Dak and his supporting cast of/when he wins a SB.

I'm frankly convinced a vast amount of our fanbase thinks we have a fairly marginal offensive cast that has lucked its way into success.

Witten? Slow and old. Cut him.
Dez? He runs one route. Head case. Trade him.
Dak? He's no Romo.
Zeke? Good only because of the line. Where's Ramsey?
Williams? Worst No. 2 receiver in the league. See ya!

That line must be really, really good to cover up all these warts. (I suppose the line just had a bad year last year? No other explanation for 2015.)

 

[Dale]

Reading comprehension is a helluva thang. Try it. I've been lauding Dak for weeks now.

Unlike you, I can appreciate both quarterbacks for what they are at this point in time. The only possible route to the Super Bowl, in my opinion, is with Romo's experience. The rookie reckoning is coming for Dak. He's not quite ready for that yet. He's been bolstered by a phenomenal offensive unit, and he's done a terrific job managing this Ferrari.

I'll change my Super Bowl tune if Dak can get through the second games against the division and play well. He could very easily be 0-3 in those games right now.

I'll agree with you on being skeptical that Dak can take us to, or win, a Super Bowl. He's having a historic rookie season, and I am just in love with what he has brought to this organization, but that's an incredibly tall task. History says he can't do it. I sure hope he proves able to break the mold.

I don't agree, though, with the "he could very easily be 0-3 in those (divisional) games" line. In today's league, that sort of what-if analysis applies to almost every game for every game. We could be 9-0 or we could easily be ___. Same goes for New York, Philly, Washington and everyone else in this watered-down, one-possession league.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'll agree with you on being skeptical that Dak can take us to, or win, a Super Bowl. He's having a historic rookie season, and I am just in love with what he has brought to this organization, but that's an incredibly tall task. History says he can't do it. I sure hope he proves able to break the mold.

I don't agree, though, with the "he could very easily be 0-3 in those (divisional) games" line. In today's league, that sort of what-if analysis applies to almost every game for every game. We could be 9-0 or we could easily be ___. Same goes for New York, Philly, Washington and everyone else in this watered-down, one-possession league.

Agreed.

Almost 50% of all NFL games have a margin of victory of 7 points or less, which means half the games are close, i.e. one possession games.

To post the Cowboys could be 0-3 in divisional games... Well duh, every team is in the same boat.

 

[percyhoward]

Prescott wants nothing to do with the middle of the field other than quick slants and turnarounds. He stays on the edges. Elite quarterbacks make their money deep down the middle where it can get ugly. Long balls down the sideline carry little risk, and they don't require a "read".

And yet none of the elite QB have been able to take advantage of these throws as well as Dak Prescott.

Sideline targets, 15+ yards
Prescott 135.4
Ryan 126.5
Carr 123.0
Tannehill 113.5
Wilson 112.0
Stafford 110.7
Bradford 110.4
Brady 107.5
Roethlisberger 105.1
Siemian 100.8

A screen pass that goes 83 yards looks great on the stat sheet, but it's not really a QB play.

Dak gets less of his yardage from YAC than all but two passers.

Top 10 -- Air yards/attempt
Ryan 5.09
Brady 4.87
Prescott 4.74
Mariota 4.66
Palmer 4.61
Winston 4.60
Dalton 4.59
Wilson 4.57
Brees 4.47
Cousins 4.45

 

[erod]

And yet none of the elite QB have been able to take advantage of these throws as well as Dak Prescott.

Sideline targets, 15+ yards
Prescott 135.4
Ryan 126.5
Carr 123.0
Tannehill 113.5
Wilson 112.0
Stafford 110.7
Bradford 110.4
Brady 107.5
Roethlisberger 105.1
Siemian 100.8


Dak gets less of his yardage from YAC than all but two passers.

Top 10 -- Air yards/attempt
Ryan 5.09
Brady 4.87
Prescott 4.74
Mariota 4.66
Palmer 4.61
Winston 4.60
Dalton 4.59
Wilson 4.57
Brees 4.47
Cousins 4.45

That was Dak's first 300-yard passing game. Throwing for 300 yards is no big deal.

We can do numbers all day. He's doing really well, and I really like how he handles 3rd down.

But he's still got light years to go. He's a rookie.

 

[erod]

I'll agree with you on being skeptical that Dak can take us to, or win, a Super Bowl. He's having a historic rookie season, and I am just in love with what he has brought to this organization, but that's an incredibly tall task. History says he can't do it. I sure hope he proves able to break the mold.

I don't agree, though, with the "he could very easily be 0-3 in those (divisional) games" line. In today's league, that sort of what-if analysis applies to almost every game for every game. We could be 9-0 or we could easily be ___. Same goes for New York, Philly, Washington and everyone else in this watered-down, one-possession league.

Cousins handed us the Washington game. That should have been a blowout. Dak went 19 of 39 against Philly and had 87 yards passing through 3 quarters. They are kicking themselves for how they mismanaged that game, but we'll take it.

I really want to see those 3 games to see how Dak has progressed this season. That will tell us a lot.

 

[DallasInDC]

Good starts to QB careers that fizzled quickly:

David Carr
Nick Foles
Colin Kaepernick
Josh Freeman
Byron Leftwich
Jake Plummer
Vince Young
Rex Grossman
Marc Bulger
Etc

Be careful. For every Big Ben or Russell Wilson, there are tons of these guys.

I would be lying if I said I didn't worry about the potential drop off, but I am encouraged that Adam seems to be fundamentally sound, and a true student of the game. As long as he continues to be as dedicated and focused on improving I think he could be a perennial pro-bowler. It would be even better if Romo was around to guide him for another year or two....but I know that is more wishful thinking than reality.

 

[erod]

I would be lying if I said I didn't worry about the potential drop off, but I am encouraged that Adam seems to be fundamentally sound, and a true student of the game. As long as he continues to be as dedicated and focused on improving I think he could be a perennial pro-bowler. It would be even better if Romo was around to guide him for another year or two....but I know that is more wishful thinking than reality.

Dak is more mature and poised than most, so I'm really hopeful, too. He seems unlikely to regress. Might not go completely smoothly, but he'll rebound when the falters come.

 

[bayeslife]

Good starts to QB careers that fizzled quickly:

David Carr
Nick Foles
Colin Kaepernick
Josh Freeman
Byron Leftwich
Jake Plummer
Vince Young
Rex Grossman
Marc Bulger
Etc

Be careful. For every Big Ben or Russell Wilson, there are tons of these guys.

Oh come on. Dak is running a pro style offense not the gimmicky stuff. He is more similar to McNabb than he is Leftwich and if we can have McNabb for 12-15 years then sign me up.

 

[erod]

Oh come on. Dak is running a pro style offense not the gimmicky stuff. He is more similar to McNabb than he is Leftwich and if we can have McNabb for 12-15 years then sign me up.

Ugh. I'm not a fan of McNabb at all. That defense saved his bacon. Horribly inaccurate.

Dak is more poised and dedicated than that.

 

[percyhoward]

That was Dak's first 300-yard passing game. Throwing for 300 yards is no big deal.

You're right about it being no big deal. QB who have passed for 300+ yards in a game this year are 38-38-2.

QB who have passed for over a 120 rating (as Dak did in Pittsburgh) are 39-6, no matter how many yards they had.

 

[JJHLH1]

Dak has the second-best passer rating versus pressure in the NFL at 122.0. That is simply unbelievable for a rookie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-lead-nfls-best-bargains-blowing-up-in-2016/

 

[zeroburrito]

That was Dak's first 300-yard passing game. Throwing for 300 yards is no big deal.

We can do numbers all day. He's doing really well, and I really like how he handles 3rd down.

But he's still got light years to go. He's a rookie.

so is zeke.

 

[AsthmaField]

I had to google nuanced.

Wait... are you serious?

 

[Trouty]

Prescott is 5th in the NFL in passing yards in the first half of games.

1st half passing yards
(games 1-9)
Brees 1428
Flacco 1416
Ryan 1394
Rivers 1352
Prescott 1301

He hasn't had many 2nd-half attempts because his team usually has the lead in the 2nd half. One of the reasons for that is Prescott's 1st-half passer rating, which ranks 2nd in the league.

1st-half passer rating
Ryan 112.5
Prescott 109.5
Rivers 104.4
Wilson 104.2
Roethlisberger 102.5

Most of the Cowboys' 1st-half yardage comes from his passing.

Dallas 1st-half yardage
passing 1,258 (62.8%)
rushing 744 (37.2%)

And that looks very much like Romo's 2014...

Dallas 1st-half yardage, 2014
passing 2,054 (62.7%)
rushing 1,223 (37.3%)

You are a treasure for this website, Percy.

 

[Trouty]

How many rookie QBs have started with the best offensive line in the NFL, the best RB in the NFL, an elite receiver, and a Hall of Fame tight end?

These discussions need perspective.

Top Defenses are also a huge advantage for rookie QBs, ala Russell Wilson. Why this is ignored so much by the media and fandom befuddles me.

 

[dallasdave]

You are a treasure for this website, Percy.

Trouty you are a treasure for this whole board. Realist guy in the room.

 

[Trouty]

Trouty you are a treasure for this whole board. Realist guy in the room.

Thanks Dave, my Captain, but I don't hold a candle to the research that Percy puts in for us on a daily basis.

Dave, we are so lucky to have Percy here.

But thank you, @dallasdave, that's incredibly kind of you.