ESPN Scouts Inc: OL rankings

[ScipioCowboy]

That's some serious literary license you took there.

I took no literary license whatsoever. I simply restated your argument in a more succint manner. When we state that "we know what we are getting" with a particular player, we are acknowledging that said player has reached his ceiling and, consequently, has nowhere to go but down.

I said I think we know what we get with Kosier and Gurode, that they are in the stage of their careers where, unless the stars align and a butterfly flaps it's wings the right way in the plains of Africa, they aren't going to get appreciably better.

Gurode just appeared in his first pro bowl. He isn't even 30 years old yet, and has ample opportunity and ability to improve. Some offensive linemen don't reach the pinnacle of their careers until their mid-30s (see Newton, Nate and Tuinei, Mark).

 

[firehawk350]

Since Jansen is only 1 year younger than Flozel (and Samuels a year behind that) I would worry more about your bookends. The Hotel is probably on his last year here and looking for a big contract going out, I'll bet he puts in a little extra work and effort here. Amazing on how players really step it up in a contract year. BANKING on that is not hype but reality of the game.

Plus we have 3 kids recently drafted and being groomed to replace him.

Yes, but there's worlds of difference between Jansen who hasn't had a major injury and Flozell who has had a serious achilles injury. The comparison is invalid. It's like saying, well you better watch out with your 99 Caddy because my 98 Caddy is about to be junked because of mechanical issues. That'd be true, except you forgot to tell me that you blew the tranny on the 98 Caddy.

You have 2 mid-round talents being groomed to replace him and one 7th rounder. Great. As if, somehow, this helps Flo be better now...

A lot of players DO step it up on a contract year, but that's assuming that Flo is better then he's showed so far, again, not a bet I want to make.

 

[riggo]

5. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati was in the middle of the pack last year with 36 sacks allowed and just 3.7 yards per carry, and having pretty much stayed put with the same group, it will be difficult to show much improvement.

and thats why they are ranked............ #5?

***?

 

[Green28]

Something doesn't add up here...and Cincinnati lost their best lineman (E. Steinbach)!

5. Cincinnati
36 sacks (19th)
3.7 ypc (28th)
94 ypg rushing (26th)

6. New England
29 sacks (11th)
3.9 ypc (22nd)
123 ypg rushing (12th)

7. Washington
19 sacks (3rd)
4.5 ypc (8th)
139 ypg rushing (4th)

 

[firehawk350]

I took no literary license whatsoever. I simply restated your argument in a more succint manner. When we state that "we know what we are getting" with a particular player, we are acknowledging that said player has reached his ceiling and, consequently, has nowhere to go but down.

You implied I said they WOULD go down, which is different. It isn't as easy as making a graph and say, at X point, that was the very best. A lot of players exist for 3-4 years at their highest level. I was just saying that they, after being just average for years, aren't going to become great just now.

Gurode just appeared in his first pro bowl. He isn't even 30 years old yet, and has ample opportunity and ability to improve. Some offensive linemen don't reach the pinnacle of their careers until their mid-30s (see Newton, Nate and Tuinei, Mark).

Yes, I said that some do get better after 30. Those are the exceptions however, and not the rule. If it was common for linemen to be much better in their mid-30s, why did you draft Flo's replacement?

 

[Jarv]

***E. Samuels and Jansen are not coming off of injuries and are younger, so the comparison is invalid. But we do know what we are getting with those two. And mostly it's good.

Gurode is 28, not exactly young. He could get stronger, but most of a center's job isn't being the strongest or fastest lineman out there, it's making line-calls. Pro-bowls are the worst measure of performance though, so don't even mention those. Two players from the Cowboys' O-line made the pro-bowl when Washington's O-line was easily the better of the two units.

Davis is huge and will be a upgrade, but that's one position. One upgrade on the line doesn't bring up all the rest of the unit's performance to an elite level. And nobody on the Dallas O-line played at an elite level.

You were average before Davis and, if your lucky, you'll be above average with him. You still won't be a top-5 line though.

Funny, you say Gurode is not exactly young, but he is younger than Jansen and Samuels (whom you praise for being younger)...Moreso that the Hotel is older than those two. Jansen is one year younger than Flo and I belive he was hurt last year as was Samuels at some point.

Just to be fair, I accept our spot (15th rated) as accurate, I just see more upside going forward with us compared to your guys who are getting older. We got younger with Davis replacing Rivera. You have backups on the O-line that we discarded (Fabini) so our depth is probably better also.

 

[firehawk350]

Something doesn't add up here...and Cincinnati lost their best lineman (E. Steinbach)!

5. Cincinnati
36 sacks (19th)
3.7 ypc (28th)
94 ypg rushing (26th)

6. New England
29 sacks (11th)
3.9 ypc (22nd)
123 ypg rushing (12th)

7. Washington
19 sacks (3rd)
4.5 ypc (8th)
139 ypg rushing (4th)

I gave up reading it halfway through. The Hogs index, which takes negative passing plays (passing plays that result in negative yards, whether it's a sack or a screen gone bad) and ypc and averages them into it, says the Skins line is #3.

 

[Jarv]

You implied I said they WOULD go down, which is different. It isn't as easy as making a graph and say, at X point, that was the very best. A lot of players exist for 3-4 years at their highest level. I was just saying that they, after being just average for years, aren't going to become great just now.





Yes, I said that some do get better after 30. Those are the exceptions however, and not the rule. If it was common for linemen to be much better in their mid-30s, why did you draft Flo's replacement?

Well then by your logic I would be worried about Jansen and Samuels...

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Yes, but there's worlds of difference between Jansen who hasn't had a major injury and Flozell who has had a serious achilles injury. The comparison is invalid. It's like saying, well you better watch out with your 99 Caddy because my 98 Caddy is about to be junked because of mechanical issues. That'd be true, except you forgot to tell me that you blew the tranny on the 98 Caddy.

You have 2 mid-round talents being groomed to replace him and one 7th rounder. Great. As if, somehow, this helps Flo be better now...

A lot of players DO step it up on a contract year, but that's assuming that Flo is better then he's showed so far, again, not a bet I want to make.

That's fair but it is also fair to say that there is also a world of difference between the talent levels of Adams and Jansen. Jansen is a good solid player but he is not as physically gifted as Adams IMO.

 

[firehawk350]

Funny, you say Gurode is not exactly young, but he is younger than Jansen and Samuels (whom you praise for being younger)...Moreso that the Hotel is older than those two. Jansen is one year younger than Flo and I belive he was hurt last year as was Samuels at some point.

I praise them for being younger then Flo, but not moreso then Gurode. The difference, again, is no MAJOR injury. Jansen went out for one game and was back, completely healthy the next. Flo went out a season and now the party line is, he's two years removed, so it was obviously a much worse injury. Samuels was in for the entire year.

Just to be fair, I accept our spot (15th rated) as accurate, I just see more upside going forward with us compared to your guys who are getting older. We got younger with Davis replacing Rivera. You have backups on the O-line that we discarded (Fabini) so our depth is probably better also.

You have back-ups on your line which we discarded (Monilaro). Fabini probably isn't going to make our squad, as Monilaro will most not likely make yours. Depth on the line is the hardest thing to predict because there's no stats to help out. Unless you see both reserve units in action, it's just speculation.

 

[firehawk350]

Well then by your logic I would be worried about Jansen and Samuels...

I'm not worried, because they didn't suffer major season-ending injuries and probably have a bit more left due to it. But they won't get any better, I know that. If they continue their level for 2-3 more years, which I don't think is unreasonable given they've shown no signs of slowing down, we got plenty of time to draft a replacement and may have one already in Wade.

 

[firehawk350]

That's fair but it is also fair to say that there is also a world of difference between the talent levels of Adams and Jansen. Jansen is a good solid player but he is not as physically gifted as Adams IMO.

No, he's not as physically gifted, but doesn't have to be due to he plays RT which isn't the blind side. Samuels is a better tackle though IMO.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

No, he's not as physically gifted, but doesn't have to be due to he plays RT which isn't the blind side. Samuels is a better tackle though IMO.

This is true but I mention this in the context of being injured or not. Your point is that Jansen is not injured and thus better off. My reasoning here is that Adams was injured, that's true, but the upside of his natural ability is not being considered here. You can't just say that he's injured and Jansen is not so Jansen is the better player, so to speak. Adams has a great deal of natural ability, even at his age. The bottom line, IMO, is how well Adams comes back. Historically, the second year back from a major injury is a year of improvement. It remains to be seen if Adams will be imporved or not but I believe the chances are good he will be better.

Time will tell.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

You have back-ups on your line which we discarded (Monilaro). Fabini probably isn't going to make our squad, as Monilaro will most not likely make yours.

What do you base this on?

 

[ScipioCowboy]

You implied I said they WOULD go down, which is different.

Wrong. This was my exact statement: But allow me to restate your argument: Flo, Gurode, and Kosier can only get worse.

Now who's taking literary license?

Not once did I state or even imply that you said "they would go down." The key words in my statement are "can only get worse," which imply that Flo, Gurode, and Kosier are only capable of getting worse. My restatement of your argument makes absolutely no predictions concerning whether or not the players in question will get worse. Huge difference.

It isn't as easy as making a graph and say, at X point, that was the very best. A lot of players exist for 3-4 years at their highest level. I was just saying that they, after being just average for years, aren't going to become great just now.

And we're just saying that, at 28 years old and just having appeared in his first pro bowl, Gurode has ample ability to improve.

Yes, I said that some do get better after 30. Those are the exceptions however, and not the rule. If it was common for linemen to be much better in their mid-30s, why did you draft Flo's replacement?

...because offensive linemen are normally highly developmental players. Seldom do they excel in their first years as a starter unless their line is already stacked with talent. This is especially true of mid-round picks like Marten and Free. Three to four years are likely to pass before either player is ready to start.

 

[firehawk350]

This is true but I mention this in the context of being injured or not. Your point is that Jansen is not injured and thus better off. My reasoning here is that Adams was injured, that's true, but the upside of his natural ability is not being considered here. You can't just say that he's injured and Jansen is not so Jansen is the better player, so to speak. Adams has a great deal of natural ability, even at his age. The bottom line, IMO, is how well Adams comes back. Historically, the second year back from a major injury is a year of improvement. It remains to be seen if Adams will be imporved or not but I believe the chances are good he will be better.

Time will tell.

I think this is a fair post. You all said the same thing about Rivera last year though (2nd year back is the biggest improvement), and sometimes, at their age, it just doesn't heal like new.

And for the record, I wasn't saying Jansen was the better player or "better off". I am saying that Jansen can stave off his eventual decline in play probably better then Adams because Adams has suffered a major injury. Jansen didn't, so there is no major concern about his play dropping off as there would be with Adams.

You know, come resign time, if there isn't a marked improvement in Flo, the major question is going to be, is he really recovered or is he just getting old? Next year, that same question isn't going to be posed about Jansen. Sure, we'll all be eyeing that little age line in his profile and looking at the later rounds for good developable talent, but nobody is wondering how he will play in 07 and 08.

 

[burmafrd]

Firehawk is a skin and therefore like a lawyer you will not hear any truth except what is slanted his way. He is so ill informed he does not know that Flo had a simple ACL, NOT AN ACHILLES INJURY. He did not know that Flo is only one year (not even that really) older then Jansen. SO obviously he knows VERY LITTLE. At 28 a O lineman can and often does improve as he gets more experience. Yet suddenly Gurode, who really only has about a total of 2 years in the pros playing Center, will not improve. I could go on but why bother?

 

[firehawk350]

What do you base this on?

Okay, Will Whittaker is doing well so he's most likely in. Assuming Wade is in and Pucillo are in (Pucillo plays blocking TE in goalline situations), there's still Lefotu which, by most accounts, played well in Europe and is younger, therefore, he seems to be the logical #9.

 

[firehawk350]

Wrong. This was my exact statement: But allow me to restate your argument: Flo, Gurode, and Kosier can only get worse.

Now who's taking literary license?

Still you, I said that that we know what we are getting. I even said there could be small amounts of improvement, but I stick by my argument that they aren't going to all-of-a-sudden be great players. If that's what you are banking your argument on, that's fine, believe it.

Not once did I state or even imply that you said "they would go down." The key words in my statement are "can only get worse," which imply that Flo, Gurode, and Kosier are only capable of getting worse. My restatement of your argument makes absolutely no predictions concerning whether or not the players in question will get worse. Huge difference.

Again, I never said anything like that. I said we know what we're getting with them, which is solid but not too much above average. Never did I say, they can only get worse. They can get better, but I think we are not going to see a night and day difference.

And we're just saying that, at 28 years old and just having appeared in his first pro bowl, Gurode has ample ability to improve.

At 28 years old, he should be in his prime. That's all I'm saying about it.

...because offensive linemen are normally highly developmental players. Seldom do they excel in their first years as a starter unless their line is already stacked with talent. This is especially true of mid-round picks like Marten and Free. Three to four years are likely to pass before either player is ready to start.

So you expect the cowboys to resign Flo for a couple of years to let these guys progress??? I'm not trying to challenge you, just curious as to your take on it.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I think this is a fair post. You all said the same thing about Rivera last year though (2nd year back is the biggest improvement), and sometimes, at their age, it just doesn't heal like new.

And for the record, I wasn't saying Jansen was the better player or "better off". I am saying that Jansen can stave off his eventual decline in play probably better then Adams because Adams has suffered a major injury. Jansen didn't, so there is no major concern about his play dropping off as there would be with Adams.

You know, come resign time, if there isn't a marked improvement in Flo, the major question is going to be, is he really recovered or is he just getting old? Next year, that same question isn't going to be posed about Jansen. Sure, we'll all be eyeing that little age line in his profile and looking at the later rounds for good developable talent, but nobody is wondering how he will play in 07 and 08.

OK, I see where your going but the fact of the matter is that neck and back problems in the NFL, spell doom. Knees no longer do. That's just the reality of it. The chances of a player coming back from knee injuries in todays sports medicine world are simply much better.

Long term, I agree with you. However, for us, I don't really think that's a concern. I honestly don't believe our goal is to resign Adams to play LT. The contract would likely be too expensive and you don't sign players based on what they have done in the past. You sign them based on what they can do for you in the future. Financially, I don't know that it is in our plans to resign Adams at all. Time will tell but I doubt we would have drafted James or Free in the same draft and as early as we did.