Sandyf
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The Dak threads are going to continue like it or not, and probably even if he signs a long term contract. The contract is either going to happen or not going to happen but nothing is going to happen until the NFL sets the new 2021 cap number. There are a ton of rumors about it with the latest being it will be just north of $185 million (a drop of some $10+ million in 2020) but there is a new TV deal about to be signed, there is a new gambling deal about to happen, a new app that allows fans more access with the NFL and also to bet), and lord knows what else. What will the number finally be? Probably not going to know until around March 15th when teams have the 48 hour window to court free agents before the new NFL year starts on March 17th.
Teams, I believe, have to be under the cap on the 17th in order to sign any free agents and some 14 teams have quite a bit of work to do before it happens.
For Dallas, the Jones, and Dak it makes no sense to finalize a contract until you know what cap number you have to work with come March 17th. A new contract for Dak will probably be in the $37 million a year average or better (some say 40+) but it will all come down to how the contract is structured and the guarantee money. JMO, but I believe it will be a 5 year deal with a Dak option to opt out year 5 or have a some percentage increase he would accept depending on the cap. The guarantee money will be north of $100 million with probably a large bulk of it being bonus money split between two different years (i.e. $40 million that would split into a cap charge of $8 million a year over 5 years, and 2nd bonus in year 3 of $30 million split over 5 years of $6 million a year - note that can be done because it is assumed that the player will extend beyond the end of the contract but if the player does not or is traded/cut then the charge of remaining bonus has to be eaten in that year he is traded/cut or split over 2 years if after June 1st). Then there will be the inevitable roster bonus each year after year one of anywhere from $5 million to $10 million a year.
So you can see the total guarantee or just bonus money being around $110 million not to mention salary that is guarantee. I could see a contract structure like this:
5 year deal $200 million $125 million in guarantees
Year 1 - Salary $5 million Bonus $8 million - Total cap charge $13 million on a 5 years $200 million contract - Cap project at $185 million - 7% of total cap
Year 2 - Salary $15 million Bonus $8 million Roster Bonus $10 million - Total cap charge $34 million - Cap project at $210 million - 16% of total cap
Year 3 - Salary $20 million Bonus $14 million Roster Bonus $5 million - Total cap charge $44 million (second bonus of $30 million kicks in) - Cap project at $240 million - 18% of total cap
Year 4 - Salary $30 million Bonus $14 million Roster Bonus $5 million - Total cap charge $49 million Cap project at $280 million - 17% of total cap
Year 5- Salary $34 million Bonus $14 million - Total cap charge $43 million - Cap project at $308 million - 14% of total cap
*Year 6 - Bonus $6 million - Bonus for year 6 and 7 would fall back to year 5 if no new deal, also depending on opt out clause
*Year 7 - Bonus $6 million - Dallas could cut or trade Dak after year 3 for a cap charge of $40 million, after year 4 for a cap charge of $28 million
This is just an example of how a contract could be structured. Cap projections came from how the union addressed the cap not going up the usually in 2021 (which would have been around $215 million in 2021). If most remember it was to increase dramatically after 2021 with the new TV and betting deals.
Teams, I believe, have to be under the cap on the 17th in order to sign any free agents and some 14 teams have quite a bit of work to do before it happens.
For Dallas, the Jones, and Dak it makes no sense to finalize a contract until you know what cap number you have to work with come March 17th. A new contract for Dak will probably be in the $37 million a year average or better (some say 40+) but it will all come down to how the contract is structured and the guarantee money. JMO, but I believe it will be a 5 year deal with a Dak option to opt out year 5 or have a some percentage increase he would accept depending on the cap. The guarantee money will be north of $100 million with probably a large bulk of it being bonus money split between two different years (i.e. $40 million that would split into a cap charge of $8 million a year over 5 years, and 2nd bonus in year 3 of $30 million split over 5 years of $6 million a year - note that can be done because it is assumed that the player will extend beyond the end of the contract but if the player does not or is traded/cut then the charge of remaining bonus has to be eaten in that year he is traded/cut or split over 2 years if after June 1st). Then there will be the inevitable roster bonus each year after year one of anywhere from $5 million to $10 million a year.
So you can see the total guarantee or just bonus money being around $110 million not to mention salary that is guarantee. I could see a contract structure like this:
5 year deal $200 million $125 million in guarantees
Year 1 - Salary $5 million Bonus $8 million - Total cap charge $13 million on a 5 years $200 million contract - Cap project at $185 million - 7% of total cap
Year 2 - Salary $15 million Bonus $8 million Roster Bonus $10 million - Total cap charge $34 million - Cap project at $210 million - 16% of total cap
Year 3 - Salary $20 million Bonus $14 million Roster Bonus $5 million - Total cap charge $44 million (second bonus of $30 million kicks in) - Cap project at $240 million - 18% of total cap
Year 4 - Salary $30 million Bonus $14 million Roster Bonus $5 million - Total cap charge $49 million Cap project at $280 million - 17% of total cap
Year 5- Salary $34 million Bonus $14 million - Total cap charge $43 million - Cap project at $308 million - 14% of total cap
*Year 6 - Bonus $6 million - Bonus for year 6 and 7 would fall back to year 5 if no new deal, also depending on opt out clause
*Year 7 - Bonus $6 million - Dallas could cut or trade Dak after year 3 for a cap charge of $40 million, after year 4 for a cap charge of $28 million
This is just an example of how a contract could be structured. Cap projections came from how the union addressed the cap not going up the usually in 2021 (which would have been around $215 million in 2021). If most remember it was to increase dramatically after 2021 with the new TV and betting deals.
