Ezekiel Elliott contract isn't bad at all

[J12B]

The Cowboys last playoff game was lost because RBs mashed us to death.
Dak actually passed better than Goff but we lost by quite a lot.

I have been a passing is king guy long before nerd twitter got ahold of made up stats proving just that (which they sat out to prove by creating said stats).
All that said running the ball IS important.
Having an RB who blocks well and can also run the ball very well is very important.
And we know having a RB who can catch the ball out of the backfield is important.

On the first 2 areas Zeke is elite. Easily top 5 in each and overall. In the third he can use some focus and work on hands and route running; simply being a more natural receiver.

RB is tough in general and I was AGAINST drafting Zeke at 4. I mean seriously in disbelief against it.
Dallas had made insane production per pick with Murray and others.

BUT, what Zeke did here was immediate and special. He has not been a choir boy off the field but he is certainly not dramatic like Ramsey.
And those were easily the top 5 guys so options were pretty much down to those 2.


Ultimately, Dallas did draft him and I moved passed my beliefs to judge him on performance and he has been elite.

Great post

 

[glimmerman]

I think having murray gave JJ the old time feel of having that power running game again. So he drafted Elliot and never looked back. He was going to make Romo’s life better. Instead it’s made Daks life easier. I have seen unreal win-loss stats when Elliot breaks 100 yards or gets a certain amount of touches. If thats a part of these analytics MM was speaking about then we may use Elliott and maybe Pollard more than we think.

 

[aria]

Believe as you choose, teams know when Dallas will run the ball they are very predictable in this and when you constantly are getting those 7 and 8 in the box it makes running much harder. Zeke has won the rushing title 2 of his 1st 4 years and ranked 2nd last year. 2017 he missed 6 games yet still ranked 10th leading rusher. You can slam him all you want but facts remain he has been one of the best RB in the NFL since he entered the league despite the fact Dallas has been very predictable of when they run the ball.

I’ll give him top 10 at this point. Total yards don’t equal best. I’m not “choosing what I believe”, I’m using legitimate stats to choose what I believe. Did you even read the article? Would you like to dispute any of it? Would you like me to post more articles showing that he’s not as good as you believe?

We can talk speed, elusiveness, broken tackles, yards from line of scrimmage, yards after catch, forced tackles missed, runs over 10+ yards, runs over 20+ yards...what else?

8 of the past 10 rushing titles carried the ball more than any other running back for that year, including zeke every time he won it. There are several other RB’s that would have done much better and had more yards if given the ball as much as zeke and behind this O line. BTW, 1 rushing title winner in the past 20 years has won the has won the Super Bowl. It’s been proven over and over again the rushing title means jack. Drafting zeke and paying zeke was a complete waste.

 

[Doomsday101]

I’ll give him top 10 at this point. Total yards don’t equal best. I’m not “choosing what I believe”, I’m using legitimate stats to choose what I believe. Did you even read the article? Would you like to dispute any of it? Would you like me to post more articles showing that he’s not as good as you believe?

We can talk speed, elusiveness, broken tackles, yards from line of scrimmage, yards after catch, forced tackles missed, runs over 10+ yards, runs over 20+ yards...what else?

8 of the past 10 rushing titles carried the ball more than any other running back for that year, including zeke every time he won it. There are several other RB’s that would have done much better and had more yards if given the ball as much as zeke and behind this O line. BTW, 1 rushing title winner in the past 20 years has won the has won the Super Bowl. It’s been proven over and over again the rushing title means jack. Drafting zeke and paying zeke was a complete waste.

and that is your opinion. To claim he is a waste of a pick? if your view. Clearly your entitled to think whatever you choose. Zeke numbers speak for themselves but what he does not do is call the plays. If this team wins a title and he is leading rusher or say top 3 rusher does it change your view? I highly doubt it. So again this debate becomes meaningless, since there is absolutely nothing he can do that will change his critics views.

 

[Corso]

Zeke's contract is terrible.

Every dollar allocated to the RB above the minimum is money inefficiently spent.

Just fact of life.

I expected no other reply from you my friend.
Hope you're doing well.

 

[glimmerman]

I’ll give him top 10 at this point. Total yards don’t equal best. I’m not “choosing what I believe”, I’m using legitimate stats to choose what I believe. Did you even read the article? Would you like to dispute any of it? Would you like me to post more articles showing that he’s not as good as you believe?

We can talk speed, elusiveness, broken tackles, yards from line of scrimmage, yards after catch, forced tackles missed, runs over 10+ yards, runs over 20+ yards...what else?

8 of the past 10 rushing titles carried the ball more than any other running back for that year, including zeke every time he won it. There are several other RB’s that would have done much better and had more yards if given the ball as much as zeke and behind this O line. BTW, 1 rushing title winner in the past 20 years has won the has won the Super Bowl. It’s been proven over and over again the rushing title means jack. Drafting zeke and paying zeke was a complete waste.

Top 10 is fair. I think since he entered the NFL he is top 5 or even 3, higher than that in some years. His problem is his off the field issues and over all personality. I don’t know him personally and try not to judge. But when your being investigated for DM you don’t pull a girls top down. And then get into bar fights. DM investigation and you touch a chick and punch someone. I think he was railroaded. But just not smart. I think he did something else too. And now he has the corona. I wait to see whats next.

I would like to see him go into the season healthy and ready out of the box with nothing hanging over his head. Show me you can repeat that rookie year. The guy is a beast when he focuses.

 

[jterrell]

Zeke's contract is terrible.

Every dollar allocated to the RB above the minimum is money inefficiently spent.

Just fact of life.

This is a bad post.

No 2019 playoff team had a regular starting minimum wage RB.
NONE.

SEA: Brought back Marshawn Lynch on max vet league minimum but it was a week to week deal to replace their spare RB and Lynch already had his 2019 money. In reality their best running back is Russ.
That's really the only one even close.

Most teams had fairly high draft picks or multiple higher paid vets.
OVER spending at RB is bad but there also comes a line of demarcation where you need a proven back and must pay a going freight.


1 Baltimore Ravens (North winner) San Francisco 49ers (West winner)
2 Kansas City Chiefs (West winner) Green Bay Packers (North winner)
3 New England Patriots (East winner) New Orleans Saints (South winner)
4 Houston Texans (South winner) Philadelphia Eagles (East winner)
5 Buffalo Bills (wild card) Seattle Seahawks (wild card)
6 Tennessee Titans (wild card) Minnesota Vikings (wild card)

Rank in RB spending. 1 being most.

BAL: 18th at 4.5M
SF: 10th at 6.7M
KC: 17th at 5.2M
GB: 29th at 2.1M
Pats: 1st at 12.3M
NO: 22nd at 3.6M
HOU: 16th at 5.4M
PHI: 23rd at 3.4M
BUF: 19th at 4.5M
SEA: 32nd at 630K
TENN: 11th at 6.5M
MINN: 21st at 3.7M

So let's talk outliers.
GB got lucky and had a really good RB performance from a cheap draftee out of TCU but has missed the playoffs in recent years largely because said RB got hurt. Lack of RB depth has hurt and the spend their reflects a willingness to risk injury.
PHI had a really good RB performance but used a 2nd round pick on Miles Sanders.
Pats rank first and paid a lot at RB. They've been willing to make tough money decision but like RB depth and versatility preferring a bevy of veteran options to 1 cheap draftee.
The final 4 teams included 10th, 11th, 18th and 29th in RB salary.
Of those 4 the team that scored the fewest points and lost by the most in the games that week was GB which ranked last in RB spend.

Reality is their is nearly zero correlation by cheap spending at RB and efficacy on the field.
It is a cheap position and spend can go a long way to an advantage in game.

All that said overspending and over-dependence on 1 elite guy has often been fool's gold.

Like anything it is a nuanced topic.

 

[cowboyschmps3]

In my view, Zeke's contract is actually pretty good for the team.

Elliot has a 10.9 million cap hit this year, which he is obviously worth. I think that cap hit is about the same as his 5th year option would have been..

In 2021, #21 has a cap hit of 13.7 million. Granted that is high, but if his play only slightly declines, Zeke will still be worth it.

In 2022, if Zeke's becomes innefective or isn't a RB opposing defenses fear anymore, (or if Pollard becomes the RB1 or we find a diamond in the rough in the 2021 draft) he can be designated as a post-June 1st cut. Doing so, would result in a 4.1 million dead money hit but create 12.4 million in cap savings.

So basically, we have Zeke on the team this year and in 2021. I hope he can reverse the trend of RBs having a short shelf life in recent years, but it is good to know that the front office can release him after the 2021 season he can be released if needed.

(Sorry if this topic seems distasteful given the recent news on Zeke, but just wanted to look at his contract again since it's been almost a year since his deal was done.)

#21

 

[aria]

and that is your opinion. To claim he is a waste of a pick? if your view. Clearly your entitled to think whatever you choose. Zeke numbers speak for themselves but what he does not do is call the plays. If this team wins a title and he is leading rusher or say top 3 rusher does it change your view? I highly doubt it. So again this debate becomes meaningless, since there is absolutely nothing he can do that will change his critics views.

What numbers? Total yards with the most carries which is the most misleading stat there is? Again, let’s talk about his numbers. Let’s talk about how many fumbles he had in 2018. Let’s talk about how often he fails in short yard situations (I already provided that for you in the article which you apparently choose to ignore), lets talk about how many tackles he’s broken which is subpar compared to his peers. Let’s talk about how many 10+ and 20+ runs he’s had. Lets talk about how low is elusiveness is.

You want to talk about two numbers, total yards and most carries. One is directly dependent on the coaching and the other is very dependent on the O line. So if zeke didn’t get the rushing title because JG didn’t give him the ball more than any other RB, does that mean he’s not good? Just average? What if he didn’t have a top 10 O line in run blocking every year he played (4th twice and 2nd once)? Would that make him inferior if he didn’t get the same numbers?

I’ll go with what the stats that say over and over again...rushing titles, drafting RB’s high and paying RB’s big money don’t win championships. The money would have been better spent elsewhere. That’s not my opinion, that is fact.

 

[Doomsday101]

What numbers? Total yards with the most carries which is the most misleading stat there is? Again, let’s talk about his numbers. Let’s talk about how many fumbles he had in 2018. Let’s talk about how often he fails in short yard situations (I already provided that for you in the article which you apparently choose to ignore), lets talk about how many tackles he’s broken which is subpar compared to his peers. Let’s talk about how many 10+ and 20+ runs he’s had. Lets talk about how low is elusiveness is.

You want to talk about two numbers, total yards and most carries. One is directly dependent on the coaching and the other is very dependent on the O line. So if zeke didn’t get the rushing title because JG didn’t give him the ball more than any other RB, does that mean he’s not good? Just average? What if he didn’t have a top 10 O line in run blocking every year he played (4th twice and 2nd once)? Would that make him inferior if he didn’t get the same numbers?

I’ll go with what the stats that say over and over again...rushing titles, drafting RB’s high and paying RB’s big money don’t win championships. The money would have been better spent elsewhere. That’s not my opinion, that is fact.

no that is opinion not fact, if it were fact Emmitt would not have 3 rings. I'm not going to continue on with this because as I said there is nothing I can say or Elliott can do that will change your view and nothing you have said to me changes mine.

 

[Typhus]

With age and gravity: Yes.

Indeed wise man,
I realize how those two items are so very similar.

 

[jterrell]

I think having murray gave JJ the old time feel of having that power running game again. So he drafted Elliot and never looked back. He was going to make Romo’s life better. Instead it’s made Daks life easier. I have seen unreal win-loss stats when Elliot breaks 100 yards or gets a certain amount of touches. If thats a part of these analytics MM was speaking about then we may use Elliott and maybe Pollard more than we think.

You can see it all around the league and to a point it is common sense.
Derrick Henry made Ryan Tannehill a rich man. --this one is delicious because both sides of the debate point to the past. RT couldn't win in Miami and DH didn't win with MM at QB. Delicious I say.
BAL and SF ALSO made rush plus TE play work to blow away expectations last year.

Really the only team that didn't care was KC. Andy Reid has never cared, lol. You are up 30 and they have you right where they want you. Pat spent his entire college career needing to score 50 a game. He loves it there down 30.
Mahomes is just different.

But unless you have the extreme outlier at QB it sure looks like you should get efficient offense with a strong rush game and reliable passing attack.


Last year versus Philly with Dak hurting it would have been nice to be able to run on Philly or use short passing game well.
Instead 7 targets to Zeke went for 7 catches but only 1 first down.
5 targets for all 3 TE went for 3 catches and only 1 First down./.. oooofffff.

If I am Dallas in the off-season I am improving my passing output to TE/RB.
Gallup/Coop and Lamb will undoubtedly go off at times but when I need a first down I want to have TE and RB that can get them.

 

[aria]

This is a bad post.

No 2019 playoff team had a regular starting minimum wage RB.
NONE.

SEA: Brought back Marshawn Lynch on max vet league minimum but it was a week to week deal to replace their spare RB and Lynch already had his 2019 money. In reality their best running back is Russ.
That's really the only one even close.

Most teams had fairly high draft picks or multiple higher paid vets.
OVER spending at RB is bad but there also comes a line of demarcation where you need a proven back and must pay a going freight.


1 Baltimore Ravens (North winner) San Francisco 49ers (West winner)
2 Kansas City Chiefs (West winner) Green Bay Packers (North winner)
3 New England Patriots (East winner) New Orleans Saints (South winner)
4 Houston Texans (South winner) Philadelphia Eagles (East winner)
5 Buffalo Bills (wild card) Seattle Seahawks (wild card)
6 Tennessee Titans (wild card) Minnesota Vikings (wild card)

Rank in RB spending. 1 being most.

BAL: 18th at 4.5M
SF: 10th at 6.7M
KC: 17th at 5.2M
GB: 29th at 2.1M
Pats: 1st at 12.3M
NO: 22nd at 3.6M
HOU: 16th at 5.4M
PHI: 23rd at 3.4M
BUF: 19th at 4.5M
SEA: 32nd at 630K
TENN: 11th at 6.5M
MINN: 21st at 3.7M

So let's talk outliers.
GB got lucky and had a really good RB performance from a cheap draftee out of TCU but has missed the playoffs in recent years largely because said RB got hurt. Lack of RB depth has hurt and the spend their reflects a willingness to risk injury.
PHI had a really good RB performance but used a 2nd round pick on Miles Sanders.
Pats rank first and paid a lot at RB. They've been willing to make tough money decision but like RB depth and versatility preferring a bevy of veteran options to 1 cheap draftee.
The final 4 teams included 10th, 11th, 18th and 29th in RB salary.
Of those 4 the team that scored the fewest points and lost by the most in the games that week was GB which ranked last in RB spend.

Reality is their is nearly zero correlation by cheap spending at RB and efficacy on the field.
It is a cheap position and spend can go a long way to an advantage in game.

All that said overspending and over-dependence on 1 elite guy has often been fool's gold.

Like anything it is a nuanced topic.

Very nice analysis and it proves that spending big money on a RB doesn’t pay off most of the time. So not one of those playoff teams spent in the top 9 and several were much lower and then we have zeke at number ONE! Total, complete waste.

What would be really interesting and something you didn’t mention would be to be the O line run blocking rankings next to each team as well.

So not only has zeke had a top 5 run blocking O line for three out of his four years (10th once) but we paid him the most money and what do we have to show for it? A couple rushing titles, fantastic. We helped pad the stats of why you don’t draft a RB high or pay a RB big money, especially when you have a top O line, your RB is an off the field liability and he refuses to play with two years left on his contract.

Jerry tried to defy logic and proven statistics once again by trying to buck the trend and he continues to look like a fool and prove that Jimmy was responsible for the SB’s, not him.

 

[waldoputty]

renegotiated at least one year before necessary.
top 2 rb pay for a top 10 back.
bad job by the fo.

 

[jterrell]

Very nice analysis and it proves that spending big money on a RB doesn’t pay off most of the time. So not one of those playoff teams spent in the top 9 and several were much lower and then we have zeke at number ONE! Total, complete waste.

What would be really interesting and something you didn’t mention would be to be the O lone run blocking ranks next to each team as well.

So not only zeke had a top 5 run blocking O line for three out of his four years (10th once) but we paid him the most money and what do we have to show for it? A couple rushing titles, fantastic. We helped pad the stats of why you don’t draft a RB high or pay a RB big money, especially when you have a top O line, your RB is an off the field liability and he refuses to play with two years left on his contract.

Jerry tried to defy logic and proven statistics once again by trying to buck the trend and he continues to look like a fool and prove that Jimmy was responsible for the SB’s, not him.

Dallas was 9th in RB spend.
The NFC Champs were 10th.

Paying one RB big money has been spotty at best as a strategy to be sure but that is about reliability more than anything.

Zeke is 4th ALL-TIME in rushing yards per game.
The 3 above him are:
Jim Brown the easy GOAT
Barry Sanders
Terrell Davis
2 of the 3 above him won Super Bowls.

It's gonna be hard to argue DAL has less chance to win with Zeke then spreading his 2019 6.3M cap hit elsewhere.
His 2020 10.3M cap hit might be more arguable but we shall see how the season goes.

Realistically you could have made far better use of money at TE last year but not resigning Witt and instead getting a better threat. Maybe one day they'll go a season or two too long with Zeke but we aren't there yet.

 

[jterrell]

renegotiated at least one year before necessary.
top 2 rb pay for a top 10 back.
bad job by the fo.

Saying Zeke is a top 10 RB is like saying Pat Mahomes is a top 5 guy.
It's disingenuous and misleading.

Zeke was 5th last year in rushing yards per game and total yards per game.
In what was the worst showing of his career.
He's 4th ALL-TIME in rushing yards per game.
He has never missed a game due to injury.

You can argue Zeke is a top 10 back of ALL-TIME; trying to argue he is merely top 10 now is frankly goofy.

 

[aria]

no that is opinion not fact, if it were fact Emmitt would not have 3 rings. I'm not going to continue on with this because as I said there is nothing I can say or Elliott can do that will change your view and nothing you have said to me changes mine.

I have posted facts that disprove your rushing leader is worth it theory, how is that opinion?

And trying to compare Emmitt and the time period he played in, two Super Bowls with no cap and most of the team that won in ‘95 built before the cap, to elliots situation today is apples and oranges.

 

[aria]

Dallas was 9th in RB spend.
The NFC Champs were 10th.

Paying one RB big money has been spotty at best as a strategy to be sure but that is about reliability more than anything.

Zeke is 4th ALL-TIME in rushing yards per game.
The 3 above him are:
Jim Brown the easy GOAT
Barry Sanders
Terrell Davis
2 of the 3 above him won Super Bowls.

It's gonna be hard to argue DAL has less chance to win with Zeke then spreading his 2019 6.3M cap hit elsewhere.
His 2020 10.3M cap hit might be more arguable but we shall see how the season goes.

Realistically you could have made far better use of money at TE last year but not resigning Witt and instead getting a better threat. Maybe one day they'll go a season or two too long with Zeke but we aren't there yet.

Guess I missed the 9th but you’re right about spending big money being spotty at best. I don’t care where zeke is with total yards, how many other RB’s have had a consistent top 5 O line their entire career? You could literally take almost any other top 20 RB in the league and they would have achieved the same numbers had they been in the same situation as Zeke.

IMOF, based on more important stats and ones that show how good a RB is individually (ie broken tackles, forced tackles missed, yards after contact, etc) there are quite a few running back that would have most likely done much better than Zeke if they were in his situation (most carries and top O line entire career). He literally doesn’t even place in the top 10 of most stats but everyone wants to use total yards as a measuring stick which is ridiculous since that is mostly dependent on coaching and how many times a RB gets the ball.

 

[waldoputty]

Saying Zeke is a top 10 RB is like saying Pat Mahomes is a top 5 guy.
It's disingenuous and misleading.

Zeke was 5th last year in rushing yards per game and total yards per game.
In what was the worst showing of his career.
He's 4th ALL-TIME in rushing yards per game.
He has never missed a game due to injury.

You can argue Zeke is a top 10 back of ALL-TIME; trying to argue he is merely top 10 now is frankly goofy.

what he did before does not matter.
it is what he can do now.
4 rbs seem to be clearly better - henry, macaffrey, cook and barkley.
he is in the 2nd half of the top rbs like chubb
even aaron jones and josh jacobs had a better y/a
with a good pair of wrs and a healthy dak last year, he really has no excuse other than garrett.
rbs get run down with mileage, especially the way he runs

 

[jterrell]

Guess I missed the 9th but you’re right about spending big money being spotty at best. I don’t care where zeke is with total yards, how many other RB’s have had a consistent top 5 O line their entire career? You could literally take almost any other top 20 RB in the league and they would have achieved the same numbers had they been in the same situation as Zeke.

IMOF, based on more important stats and ones that show how good a RB is individually (ie broken tackles, forced tackles missed, yards after contact, etc) there are quite a few running back that would have most likely done much better than Zeke if they were in his situation (most carries and top O line entire career). He literally doesn’t even place in the top 10 of most stats but everyone wants to use total yards as a measuring stick which is ridiculous since that is mostly dependent on coaching and how many times a RB gets the ball.

I think you undersell Zeke by quite a lot but that's OK.
This OL has been woefully overrated and people pretend Travis was Travis the last 2 years and Connor Williams was great and Tyron has been healthy for 4 straight years....

End of day the game boils down to making your QB successful. You use the rest of the roster to do so.
That RB position is an important factor in doing so as we saw all last year and especially in the playoffs.
If you don't wanna go that route you are perfectly right to go draft the best QB of a generation and surround him with elite WRs.
That method will also work quite well. lol.

Zeke as a rookie was the best player on the Dallas Cowboys and one of the 10 best players in football.
He has not been quite as good since and last year after the holdout he was merely the 5th best back in football.
Going into next year I don't know if he returns to a top 2/3 RB or if he retreats. RB are tough to judge year to year given varying circumstances.

Zeke was only a 6M cap hit last year and he gave them the 5th most yards at the position. That's perfectly fine value.
This year he is at 10M and 5th best would be a little disappointing at that price. But 2/3 would be perfectly in line; especially if he had a strong playoff run.

No one in Tennessee would have complained of paying Henry 10M LAST YEAR.
Same with Carolina and CMC.
But they got their money AFTER those years much like Zeke got his well after 2016.