Factual look at this offense and at Dak

[Silver N Blue]

Stats have a cool way of not caring about your feelings.

They can obviously be used to form arguments that go well beyond what they actually state but that's an issue with the presenter, not the stat.

As of this BYE week we've been told by at least half of cowboyszone Dak is simply a bad QB.

Stats suggest there are lots of myth's about this offense:

1st. DAL faces more 8 in box than anyone.


Ummm, nope. They actually don't. Less than 25% of the time is Zeke running into 8+ man boxes.

2nd. DAL has a dominant OL.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate

Ummm, nope. Only Zack Martin rates top 10 at his position and as a group they are outside the top 10 in pass block win% as well as the Football Outsiders overall OL score.
This is a middle of the pack OL with lots of upside. CWill is improving and Fredbeard should be back next year. But they are the highest paid group in football history and this is not a dominant OL right now. Ol Coach should be on notice though it isn't his fault Travis has to miss the season or that we have a rookie LG.
Tyron and La'el are on him IMHO.

3rd: Dak is awful and we are losing because of him.


Dak's last 4 games performance has been graded in the top 10 at QB by passer rating yet team is only 2-2.

4th: WR is NOT a problem


DAL WRs are last in the NFL in yards of separation. That's an issue. Swain and Beasley are solid, everyone else falls off a cliff.
And while there's not stat for this the entire non-Beasley WR corps is from the TWill school of catching a football with your chest.
Amari Cooper is a possible answer and you can see why they BOLDLY traded for him. This team has done seemingly zero things bold since Stephen took over.

So Dak is the best?
Absolutely not.
He's a prototypical young QB. He's not getting to 3rd or 4th reads regularly and his pre-snap stuff is worth questioning. He is not good at all when pressure is near his feet. His footwork falls apart and his passing accuracy suffer big-time.
So what then he sucks right?
No. These are common issues especially with younger QBs.
You give him a chance to win if you are better along the OL and at WR.

Worth noting:
Tony Romo was really good.


But Dak actually rates even higher in TD/INT ratio.
He'd come in at 2.52 which would be good for 4th on this list all-time....

It is going to be interesting to review this ta the end of the year.
I wonder how many people will ignore better OL and WR play and simply credit Dak if his numbers improve?

Dak will only improve if the person in front of him returns to break down what the defense is doing.

 

[jterrell]

The 8 man in the box stat is only as accurate as whoever is keeping track of when their are 8 men in the box and the criteria for when their are actually 8 men in the box can be debatable. In any event, Dak is not passing the eyeball test right now. Its about perceptions, not feelings.

perception is closely intertwined with feelings.

it literally means how you interpret data using senses.

some people see black/blue dress some gold/white.....
the reason scientists rely on data to back up theories is to validate their perceptions.

if your eyeball test didn't suggest a very poor first 3 games for Dak followed by a vastly improved final 4 then it is flawed.

as a group i'd suggest we felt getting Zeke more involved in the passing game would be a huge win.
data suggests he is one of the most ineffective pass targets on the team.

 

[birdwells1]

8 men is 8 men for purposes of the study.

DAL uses as much 2 TE stuff as anyone so that really isn't a reason they'd see less 8 men boxes.

Reality is DAL OL has been getting whipped 5 on 5 and even 5 on 4.
Teams haven't really had to stack the box to stop Zeke.

They can press the WRs outside and those players then become run defenders as well.
DAL had 1 WR who wins in tight man coverage; Beasley.
Cooper gives them a second.
DAL does win outside well down (Gallup, Austin and Thompson) the field but those are really slow developing plays.

IMHO the biggest issue has been Hurns. I do not think e presents any threat whatsoever. He is a WR4 or WR5 imho as an outside back up.

Another factor is running the football simply doesn't equate to winning.
Not like passing efficiency does.
Defenses can let Zeke get 120 and still hold the offense down if they focus in hitting Dak as much as possible.

That'd be my game plan as a DC.

They have been doing the opposite (gearing up to stop the run) with success this season. I think that the Cowboys run more 3, 4, or 5 wides more than the 2 TE sets.

 

[jterrell]

It's not overblown.. You know why? Because we aren't getting production in the pass game.

Aaron Rodgers is still producing.

Dak is just out there trying not to screw it up.

If Dak was sniffing 250-300 yards every week and a couple TD's it would be different.

You keep posting things as if they are true when they are demonstrably wrong.

Evidence above around Dak's last 4 games is very real.

Rodgers and Dak have shared 2 opponents this year. GB and Rodgers lost both those games. Dak split them but also avg'd 263 yards passing with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in those games.

You want to focus on passing yards but Rodgers is averaging a career high 42 attempts per game.
Was Dak better versus Jax with 183 yards passing and 2 TDs and zero turnovers or
273 yards passing with 1 TD and 2 turnovers versus WAS?

Aaron Rodgers was catching plenty of heat earlier this season for poor play.
Like Dak he has been far better lately.

 

[Hennessy_King]

It's not overblown.. You know why? Because we aren't getting production in the pass game.

Aaron Rodgers is still producing.

Dak is just out there trying not to screw it up.

If Dak was sniffing 250-300 yards every week and a couple TD's it would be different.

That's not how this offense was built. We spent all our money and resources on the offensive line and a top tier RB. We trot out the worst TE and WR groups in the league every week with a $600,000 QB. It's pretty easy to see why our passing game is lacking. O line has been below average tied for 4th most in the league with 11 holding penalties this year. Wr's have the lowest average separation as a group in the league. It's way more than the QB. When's the last time dak threw a slant or curl where the wr took it to the house? Once last year with dez when he broke a tackle on some practice squad corner.

 

[jterrell]

They have been doing the opposite (gearing up to stop the run) with success this season. I think that the Cowboys run more 3, 4, or 5 wides more than the 2 TE sets.

Over 40% of the time DAL has 1 TE and either 1FB or a 2nd TE.
Swain plays 90% of the snaps
Jarwin 28%
Rico 10%
Schultz 5%
Olawale 9%

They are not a heavy spread team compared to most anyone else in football.
They rank top 5 in most 2 TE sets.

 

[Number1]

It's not overblown.. You know why? Because we aren't getting production in the pass game.

Aaron Rodgers is still producing.

Dak is just out there trying not to screw it up.

If Dak was sniffing 250-300 yards every week and a couple TD's it would be different.

This system will never produce 250+ a game on a regular basis. It's not designed to with a NFL low 30 passes a game. You'd have to average 9.0+ YPA. That has never happened in NFL history. Romo hit 8.5 YPA in 2014, Dak 8.0 in 2016.

It's like expecting a NBA team to hit 75% on 3 pointers for a season

Asking a unit with 2 new OL starters, 5 new WRs, and 3 new TEs to achieve what has never been done is a bit crazy

 

[TimHortons]

Just because there may not necessarily be 8 men in the box doesn't mean the defense isn't heavily focused on stopping the run. Maybe they have 2 safeties back, but you can be sure as hell that those safeties are stepping up aggressively, and those LBs are damn focused on stopping the run because they don't fear our passing game. There can be 7 men in the box, but if everyone know our passing game sucks they're still going to focus on zeke

 

[Number1]

birdwell1,

you keep throwing the below out there

"Dak Prescott:

In games when pressured on 40% or more of dropbacks
from clean pocket
116 of 166 924 yd 4 td 7 int 74.0 (29th)
when pressured
45 of 91 602 yd 1 td 5 int 51.6 (25th)"

that's 5 TDs and 12 INTs ... when did this supposedly happen?

 

[Future]

Serious question, does the 8 man in the box account for every time the safety is used in the run game? Suppose there's 3 wides and the safety is used as run support, then that would be 7 men in the box and would have the same effect as 8 men in the box but may not be captured in that stat.

No it doesn't, and that's why this data set is ridiculously inaccurate and misleading. It was crap when it was tweeted out earlier today, and it remains crap.

The only stat that matters, in terms of men in the box, is blockers vs. defenders. When the Cowboys go 3 WRs, it's 6 blockers vs. 7 defenders. When they bring in a TE, it's 7 vs. 8, and so on.

 

[Future]

DAL uses as much 2 TE stuff as anyone so that really isn't a reason they'd see less 8 men boxes.

Prove it. They do not use as much 2TE/TE+FB as anyone, especially not since they split their TEs out all the time .

 

[aikemirv]

So the FACT that the Commanders said they were selling out to stop the run means nothing - regardless of the 8-9 men STAT. That stopping Zeke is the focus of every DC that you hear about when the announcers do their weekly interviews with coaches means nothing either. That a safety who is not in the box has his focus on the run game first is not shown in the 8 in the box stats either.

 

[Parcells4Life]

Stats have a cool way of not caring about your feelings.

They can obviously be used to form arguments that go well beyond what they actually state but that's an issue with the presenter, not the stat.

As of this BYE week we've been told by at least half of cowboyszone Dak is simply a bad QB.

Stats suggest there are lots of myth's about this offense:

1st. DAL faces more 8 in box than anyone.


Ummm, nope. They actually don't. Less than 25% of the time is Zeke running into 8+ man boxes.

2nd. DAL has a dominant OL.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate

Ummm, nope. Only Zack Martin rates top 10 at his position and as a group they are outside the top 10 in pass block win% as well as the Football Outsiders overall OL score.
This is a middle of the pack OL with lots of upside. CWill is improving and Fredbeard should be back next year. But they are the highest paid group in football history and this is not a dominant OL right now. Ol Coach should be on notice though it isn't his fault Travis has to miss the season or that we have a rookie LG.
Tyron and La'el are on him IMHO.

3rd: Dak is awful and we are losing because of him.


Dak's last 4 games performance has been graded in the top 10 at QB by passer rating yet team is only 2-2.

4th: WR is NOT a problem


DAL WRs are last in the NFL in yards of separation. That's an issue. Swain and Beasley are solid, everyone else falls off a cliff.
And while there's not stat for this the entire non-Beasley WR corps is from the TWill school of catching a football with your chest.
Amari Cooper is a possible answer and you can see why they BOLDLY traded for him. This team has done seemingly zero things bold since Stephen took over.

So Dak is the best?
Absolutely not.
He's a prototypical young QB. He's not getting to 3rd or 4th reads regularly and his pre-snap stuff is worth questioning. He is not good at all when pressure is near his feet. His footwork falls apart and his passing accuracy suffer big-time.
So what then he sucks right?
No. These are common issues especially with younger QBs.
You give him a chance to win if you are better along the OL and at WR.

Worth noting:
Tony Romo was really good.


But Dak actually rates even higher in TD/INT ratio.
He'd come in at 2.52 which would be good for 4th on this list all-time....

It is going to be interesting to review this ta the end of the year.
I wonder how many people will ignore better OL and WR play and simply credit Dak if his numbers improve?

Dak may not throw a lot of INTs but he doesn’t throw for a lot of TDs either.

 

[Number1]

1st. DAL faces more 8 in box than anyone.


Ummm, nope. They actually don't. Less than 25% of the time is Zeke running into 8+ man boxes.

2nd. DAL has a dominant OL.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate

3rd: Dak is awful and we are losing because of him.


Dak's last 4 games performance has been graded in the top 10 at QB by passer rating yet team is only 2-2.

4th: WR is NOT a problem


DAL WRs are last in the NFL in yards of separation. That's an issue. Swain and Beasley are solid, everyone else falls off a cliff.
And while there's not stat for this the entire non-Beasley WR corps is from the TWill school of catching a football with your chest.
Amari Cooper is a possible answer and you can see why they BOLDLY traded for him. This team has done seemingly zero things bold since Stephen took over.

So Dak is the best?
Absolutely not.
He's a prototypical young QB. He's not getting to 3rd or 4th reads regularly and his pre-snap stuff is worth questioning. He is not good at all when pressure is near his feet. His footwork falls apart and his passing accuracy suffer big-time.
So what then he sucks right?
No. These are common issues especially with younger QBs.
You give him a chance to win if you are better along the OL and at WR.

Worth noting:
Tony Romo was really good.


But Dak actually rates even higher in TD/INT ratio.
He'd come in at 2.52 which would be good for 4th on this list all-time....

It is going to be interesting to review this ta the end of the year.
I wonder how many people will ignore better OL and WR play and simply credit Dak if his numbers improve?

dude, if you think facts will impact idiots stuck on stupid, you're in lala land

they just like to be player haters - it's their nature - you're talking about the sort of people who'd throw water on a grease fire - they are fools, you can't help them

 

[Bigdog]

Like I have said before, I like Dak and really hopes he succeeds. He has a 1 1/2 years to prove it. I don't care what he did is first year. This is what have you done for me lately league. Teams adjusted to him after his first year and now Dak has to adjust also. It could be him, the coaches, OL, Wrs, etc but he needs along with the whole team needs to play better and I think they will but time will tell or heads should roll. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Virginia-Dave]

You keep posting things as if they are true when they are demonstrably wrong.

Evidence above around Dak's last 4 games is very real.

Rodgers and Dak have shared 2 opponents this year. GB and Rodgers lost both those games. Dak split them but also avg'd 263 yards passing with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in those games.

You want to focus on passing yards but Rodgers is averaging a career high 42 attempts per game.
Was Dak better versus Jax with 183 yards passing and 2 TDs and zero turnovers or
273 yards passing with 1 TD and 2 turnovers versus WAS?

Aaron Rodgers was catching plenty of heat earlier this season for poor play.
Like Dak he has been far better lately.

So Dak fumbled twice because he had more passing yards? If he had actually thrown the ball on those 2 plays he would've had even more passing yards (assuming he threw a catchable ball) and we would've won that game. I get what you're saying, more pass attempts equals more potential turnovers, but that's a bad example.

 

[CCBoy]

The Cowboys newest addition will be joined by slot receiver Cole Beasley, rookie wide out Michael Gallup and under performing veteran receiver Allen Hurns. Cooper gives Dallas an explosive option at the receiver position, which the team believes is the missing piece needed to ignite their stagnant passing offense.
But the truth is Cooper has never really been a true number one wide receiver. During his first three seasons in the NFL, he was part of a receiver tandem along with another former 2009 first round pick, Michael Crabtree. In fact, Crabtree was the Raiders’ top wide receiver during that three year span from 2015-2017...

Without Crabtree to balance out Cooper, Amari struggled to produce on his own this season. He racked up just 22 receptions for 280 yards and one score through six games. The fact Beasley has better numbers is worrisome...

In Cooper, the Cowboys have acquired a wideout with the skill set to be a top-flight receiver in the NFL. But his inconsistent play and numerous drops make this trade a major gamble.

https://thelandryhat.com/2018/10/25/dallas-cowboys-amari-cooper-stat-jaw/

If Dak Prescott truly wants to make the Cowboys his team, he will have to make the Cooper addition work at a high level, now...

 

[Kaiser]

That is actually incorrect.

I usually define it as all of the defenders 5-6 yards from the line of scrimmage and the width of a couple of yards beyond the offensive tackles. That would be the box.

Its also more a matter of selling out on run reads instead of physically being at the line. If the safety is 5 yards off the LOS and crashes the line in a run blitz, it isn't in the box but its a distinction without a difference.

 

[phildadon86]

@WillieBeamen Wont like this thread. At all.

 

[viman96]

Winning, TDs, FGs, being clutch, moving the chains while minimizing mistakes is what really matters with QBs. Can they lead their team consistently down the field. Can they dig their team out of a hole. It does not matter if the QB runs, passes or hands the ball off to make it happen. As we know Tony had all the stats to support him being an elite QB. He had the misfortune a few years with terrible defenses that lost games but he also made crucial mistakes to lose games.