Finding a Franchise QB

[Galian Beast]

For this exercise what I'm going to do is list all the QBs who won a super bowl and how their team obtained them.

1. Peyton Manning - Free Agency
2. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
3. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
4. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
5. Eli Manning - 1st overall
6. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
7. Drew Brees - Free Agency
8. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
9. Eli Manning - 1st overall
10. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
11. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
12. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
13. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
14. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick
15. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick

Of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs seven were drafted in the first round by the team that drafted them, but that also complicates things. Only 5 of them are were individual winners and only two of them were top 10 picks.

My point is that there are a lot of ways to get the right quarterback and this idea that it has to be a top 5 or 10 pick doesn't really cut mustard. People are obsessed with the idea, even though most of these QBs drafted are busts.

I think we already have a franchise quarterback who best represents our chances at winning and to best his chances we need to create a team around him that is of high quality, which in term also helps any quarterback you try to develop after him. I would say the common theme for almost all of these teams is that they had great defenses or extremely explosive offenses (or both).

Let's say Romo retires in two years and he doesn't play the 4-5 that Jerry Jones suggests he could play. There will be options available just as there was for the Giants and Cardinals when they each got Kurt Warner, or the Broncos who got Peyton Manning, or the Saints who got Drew Brees, or Arizona who got Carson Palmer.

Don't forget the context of the history we've had at the QB position. We didn't struggle to find a QB for so long just because we waited until Aikman retired. We struggled because we didn't put many resources into finding one, and because the teams we had were garbage and didn't support a QB.

One arugment will be that we won't or shouldn't be so high in the draft again. So you're telling me that you wouldn't support trading up for a QB you really thought was a franchise QB? I'd give up 2 first round draft picks for such a QB. I think drafting a QB I don't really believe in at 4 is much worse than giving up 2 picks for one that I do believe in and that goes for a straight up trade or going after a franchised QB as well. Not to mention there is usually someone in free agency.

 

[JoeKing]

Repeatedly listing Tom Brady and simply listing Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as "Free Agency" dilutes the validity of your point. Peyton and Drew were 1st picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds, respectively. The list reveals to me you need to draft high if you want a QB that can win a Super Bowl. Everyone knows Brady is a freak.

 

[Direwolf63]

I'm sorry, but your list is flawed. You count Tom Brady 4 times. That skews the list. He should only count once. To be fair, you, you also have to take out Eli, Peyton and Roth once as well.

Peyton was a 1st overall pick. Just because he switched teams doesn't change his draft status. And Brees was the first pick of the second round for SD. Call it a borderline 1st rounder.

1. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
2. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
3. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
4. Eli Manning - 1st overall
5. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
6. Drew Brees - 1st pick, 2nd round
7. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
8. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
9. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick

So 5 of the 9 were 1st round picks. A 6th (Brees) was a borderline 1st round pick. And 1 (Brady) was a complete Hail Mary fluke. The Pats were just as lucky in finding Brady and Jerry was in finding Romo. If you think trolling around the 6th round will net you a franchise QB, your dreaming. As for Brad Johnson, he can thank Sapp, Brooks, Lynch, etc. for his SB win.

So if you want a franchise QB, you have to go to the first round. Preferably high. Otherwise, your just looking to get lucky. It's like relying on winning the Powerball as your retirement plan.

 

[Direwolf63]

Repeatedly listing Tom Brady and simply listing Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as "Free Agency" dilutes the validity of your point. Peyton and Drew were 1st picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds, respectively. The list reveals to me you need to draft high if you want a QB that can win a Super Bowl. Everyone knows Brady is a freak.

Fewer words, but essentially the same point I am making.

 

[Galian Beast]

Repeatedly listing Tom Brady and simply listing Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as "Free Agency" dilutes the validity of your point. Peyton and Drew were 1st picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds, respectively. The list reveals to me you need to draft high if you want a QB that can win a Super Bowl. Everyone knows Brady is a freak.

Looks like you checked out after reading the list and didn't read the OP.

The fact that you have quarterbacks with multiple wins goes straight to my point, and my point about Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as Free Agent pick ups also goes straight to my point. Were they first round draft picks? Absolutely, but that is neither here nor there to the teams that signed them in free agency. Signing a QB in free agency doesn't mean you yourself have to draft a QB high to win, it means that the draft isn't the only place to get a franchise QB.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Past is the past. All that matters is the present. No one knows the future or what it will bring. Listing those qb's and how they were obtained doesn't change that. If the Cowboys trust their scouts and their board, then go with that. If one of those qb's is their best option, ok. If not, ok.

As for our team around Romo, we are no where near the caliber on defense to compete with Seattle, Carolina or Arizona in the west. And the draft/free agency won't change that. Because those teams too will add players via that route.

 

[Galian Beast]

I'm sorry, but your list is flawed. You count Tom Brady 4 times. That skews the list. He should only count once. To be fair, you, you also have to take out Eli, Peyton and Roth once as well.

Peyton was a 1st overall pick. Just because he switched teams doesn't change his draft status. And Brees was the first pick of the second round for SD. Call it a borderline 1st rounder.

1. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
2. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
3. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
4. Eli Manning - 1st overall
5. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
6. Drew Brees - 1st pick, 2nd round
7. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
8. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
9. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick

So 5 of the 9 were 1st round picks. A 6th (Brees) was a borderline 1st round pick. And 1 (Brady) was a complete Hail Mary fluke. The Pats were just as lucky in finding Brady and Jerry was in finding Romo. If you think trolling around the 6th round will net you a franchise QB, your dreaming. As for Brad Johnson, he can thank Sapp, Brooks, Lynch, etc. for his SB win.

So if you want a franchise QB, you have to go to the first round. Preferably high. Otherwise, your just looking to get lucky. It's like relying on winning the Powerball as your retirement plan.

See above.

 

[Wood]

For this exercise what I'm going to do is list all the QBs who won a super bowl and how their team obtained them.

1. Peyton Manning - Free Agency
2. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
3. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
4. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
5. Eli Manning - 1st overall
6. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
7. Drew Brees - Free Agency
8. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
9. Eli Manning - 1st overall
10. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
11. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
12. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
13. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
14. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick
15. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick

Of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs seven were drafted in the first round by the team that drafted them, but that also complicates things. Only 5 of them are were individual winners and only two of them were top 10 picks.

My point is that there are a lot of ways to get the right quarterback and this idea that it has to be a top 5 or 10 pick doesn't really cut mustard. People are obsessed with the idea, even though most of these QBs drafted are busts.

I think we already have a franchise quarterback who best represents our chances at winning and to best his chances we need to create a team around him that is of high quality, which in term also helps any quarterback you try to develop after him. I would say the common theme for almost all of these teams is that they had great defenses or extremely explosive offenses (or both).

Let's say Romo retires in two years and he doesn't play the 4-5 that Jerry Jones suggests he could play. There will be options available just as there was for the Giants and Cardinals when they each got Kurt Warner, or the Broncos who got Peyton Manning, or the Saints who got Drew Brees, or Arizona who got Carson Palmer.

Don't forget the context of the history we've had at the QB position. We didn't struggle to find a QB for so long just because we waited until Aikman retired. We struggled because we didn't put many resources into finding one, and because the teams we had were garbage and didn't support a QB.

One arugment will be that we won't or shouldn't be so high in the draft again. So you're telling me that you wouldn't support trading up for a QB you really thought was a franchise QB? I'd give up 2 first round draft picks for such a QB. I think drafting a QB I don't really believe in at 4 is much worse than giving up 2 picks for one that I do believe in and that goes for a straight up trade or going after a franchised QB as well. Not to mention there is usually someone in free agency.

21 of current starting QBs in NFL were 1st round picks. For Dallas to think they are going to out-smart the league and get their franchise QB in middle rounds is overly optimistic. If Dallas doesn't like QBs early in this draft then just by-pass it until next year because its senseless to blow middle rounds picks as token gesture for fans to feel better about it.

 

[Doomsday101]

For this exercise what I'm going to do is list all the QBs who won a super bowl and how their team obtained them.

1. Peyton Manning - Free Agency
2. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
3. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
4. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
5. Eli Manning - 1st overall
6. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
7. Drew Brees - Free Agency
8. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
9. Eli Manning - 1st overall
10. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
11. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
12. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
13. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
14. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick
15. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick

Of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs seven were drafted in the first round by the team that drafted them, but that also complicates things. Only 5 of them are were individual winners and only two of them were top 10 picks.

My point is that there are a lot of ways to get the right quarterback and this idea that it has to be a top 5 or 10 pick doesn't really cut mustard. People are obsessed with the idea, even though most of these QBs drafted are busts.

I think we already have a franchise quarterback who best represents our chances at winning and to best his chances we need to create a team around him that is of high quality, which in term also helps any quarterback you try to develop after him. I would say the common theme for almost all of these teams is that they had great defenses or extremely explosive offenses (or both).

Let's say Romo retires in two years and he doesn't play the 4-5 that Jerry Jones suggests he could play. There will be options available just as there was for the Giants and Cardinals when they each got Kurt Warner, or the Broncos who got Peyton Manning, or the Saints who got Drew Brees, or Arizona who got Carson Palmer.

Don't forget the context of the history we've had at the QB position. We didn't struggle to find a QB for so long just because we waited until Aikman retired. We struggled because we didn't put many resources into finding one, and because the teams we had were garbage and didn't support a QB.

One arugment will be that we won't or shouldn't be so high in the draft again. So you're telling me that you wouldn't support trading up for a QB you really thought was a franchise QB? I'd give up 2 first round draft picks for such a QB. I think drafting a QB I don't really believe in at 4 is much worse than giving up 2 picks for one that I do believe in and that goes for a straight up trade or going after a franchised QB as well. Not to mention there is usually someone in free agency.

Dallas could get an UDFA QB we got one now but odds say most will fail. Most 6 rd QB will fail. No you don't have to get a high 1st rd QB but like any other position the odds are better with higher picks than later rd picks.

 

[Galian Beast]

Past is the past. All that matters is the present. No one knows the future or what it will bring. Listing those qb's and how they were obtained doesn't change that. If the Cowboys trust their scouts and their board, then go with that. If one of those qb's is their best option, ok. If not, ok.

The past is the best predictor of the future.

No one thinks that Goff or Wentz is a Luck caliber quarterback. The NFL is littered with overrated QBs who were drafted in the first round, simply because teams value the QB position. Happens consistently.

Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman

That's just the list since Romo came into the league...

 

[Galian Beast]

21 of current starting QBs in NFL were 1st round picks. For Dallas to think they are going to out-smart the league and get their franchise QB in middle rounds is overly optimistic. If Dallas doesn't like QBs early in this draft then just by-pass it until next year because its senseless to blow middle rounds picks as token gesture for fans to feel better about it.

I'm not even saying you can't get a QB in the first round. I'm saying you shouldn't get one just to get one. When you break down that list, you see the majority of them are garbage, and quite a few of them aren't with the team that drafted them. Dallas has a Franchise QB right now, and that should be their focus.

 

[Direwolf63]

Looks like you checked out after reading the list and didn't read the OP.

The fact that you have quarterbacks with multiple wins goes straight to my point, and my point about Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as Free Agent pick ups also goes straight to my point. Were they first round draft picks? Absolutely, but that is neither here nor there to the teams that signed them in free agency. Signing a QB in free agency doesn't mean you yourself have to draft a QB high to win, it means that the draft isn't the only place to get a franchise QB.

But why were Peyton and Brees free agents?

Peyton has his neck surgeries and they drafted Andrew Luck. That made Peyton and his massive salary expendable.

As for Brees, he was pretty average in San Diego, then tore up his shoulder. The Chargers drafted Phillips Rivers, forcing Brees out. ANd he flourished with Sean Peyton.

Those were special circumstances. Franchise QB's do not hit the market unless there are weird circumstances. They are very few and far between. Trolling around the free agent market for franchise QB's is a fools errand. Just check out the list of QB available this year. Any franchise QB there? Keep looking.

Your argument doesn't hold water. Your chances of finding a franchise QB is at the top of the 1st round. Its not a guarantee, but that's where the odds are the most in your favor.

 

[Galian Beast]

Dallas could get an UDFA QB we got one now but odds say most will fail. Most 6 rd QB will fail. No you don't have to get a high 1st rd QB but like any other position the odds are better with higher picks than later rd picks.

Again, the argument wasn't let's draft a QB in the 6th round this year.

The argument is that drafting a QB just to draft a QB in the first round doesn't make sense, and the results are more often than not a disaster.

 

[Galian Beast]

But why were Peyton and Brees free agents?

Peyton has his neck surgeries and they drafted Andrew Luck. That made Peyton and his massive salary expendable.

As for Brees, he was pretty average in San Diego, then tore up his shoulder. The Chargers drafted Phillips Rivers, forcing Brees out. ANd he flourished with Sean Peyton.

Those were special circumstances. Franchise QB's do not hit the market unless these are weird circumstances. Trolling around the free agents market for franchise QB's is a fools errand. Just check out the list of QB available this year. Any franchise QB there? Keep looking.

Your argument doesn't hold water. Your chances of finding a franchise QB is at the top of the 1st round. Its not a guarantee, but that's where the odds are the most in your favor.

Peyton Manning was highly sought after when he initially went into free agency, half the teams in the league wanted him.

Drew Brees was a first round draft pick and played well, but did not have a strong team around him.

Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer like I said also found themselves as free agents. And again, my point is not that you should try to exclusively get a guy in free agency, but you wait for the right player to come to you, you don't force it.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

The past is the best predictor of the future.

No one knows the future. How is predicted? Did the past predict our past draft, or the year before?

 

[Galian Beast]

No one knows the future. How is predicted? Did the past predict our past draft, or the year before?

We had a terrible secondary the year before the previous draft and we used our first pick on a secondary player. Did the past predict our past draft? I'd say it did.

 

[Direwolf63]

Peyton Manning was highly sought after when he initially went into free agency, half the teams in the league wanted him.

Drew Brees was a first round draft pick and played well, but did not have a strong team around him.

Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer like I said also found themselves as free agents. And again, my point is not that you should try to exclusively get a guy in free agency, but you wait for the right player to come to you, you don't force it.

Sure. Lets wait around for a franchise QB to become a free agent. There's lots of time. If your lucky, you might get one before the century is over.

Kurt Warner was washed up with the Giants. His career looked to be over. To his credit, he gained a second life in Arizona, who were desperate and took a flyer on him. Larry Fitzgerald helped the reclamation project. But it was what 2 or 3 years? Then he was done for good.

Carson Palmer had had enough of the losing culture in Cincinnati and quit. The Raiders signed him and he did squat for them. Again, a rebound in Arizona. But he doesn't have more than a couple of years left either.

Dozens of QB's hit the free agent market every single year. Picking one reclamation project every few years and holding that up as a way of finding a franchise QB makes no sense.

Again, these pickups you describe are like winning a lottery. It's no way to build a team.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

We had a terrible secondary the year before the previous draft and we used our first pick on a secondary player. Did the past predict our past draft? I'd say it did.

Ok show me a link where it was fact that the past predicted every pick we took in last years draft. One by one. Waiting....

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

And our ENTIRE defense was terrible. lol. Not just the secondary. I guess the past proved that.

 

[Galian Beast]

Sure. Lets wait around for a franchise QB to become a free agent. There's lots of time. If your lucky, you might get one before the century is over.

Kurt Warner was washed up with the Giants. His career looked to be over. To his credit, he gained a second life in Arizona, who were desperate and took a flyer on him. Larry Fitzgerald helped the reclamation project. But it was what 2 or 3 years? Then he was done for good.

Carson Palmer had had enough of the losing culture in Cincinnati and quit. The Raiders signed him and he did squat for them. Again, a rebound in Arizona. But he doesn't have more than a couple of years left either.

Dozens of QB's hit the free agent market every single year. Picking one reclamation project every few years and holding that up as a way of finding a franchise QB makes no sense.

Again, these pickups you describe are like winning a lottery. It's no way to build a team.

I swear my biggest pet peeve is people not paying attention to what someone actually says.

I didn't say you should wait around for a free agent. I said that is an option. Draft a qb in the 1st round is also an option. Drafting a quarterback in later rounds that you think has potential is also an option. Trading for a QB is also an option. Even getting a QB who has been franchised is an option.

The point is you have many options, and you should allow your options to come to you rather than reaching for a bad option at the time. Can't be anymore clear on this.