Finding a Franchise QB

[Dhragon]

The past is the best predictor of the future.

No one thinks that Goff or Wentz is a Luck caliber quarterback. The NFL is littered with overrated QBs who were drafted in the first round, simply because teams value the QB position. Happens consistently.

Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman

That's just the list since Romo came into the league...

Blake Bortles did great last year. I'd gladly take him as QB

 

[Galian Beast]

Blake Bortles did great last year. I'd gladly take him as QB

Would you take him 4th overall?

 

[Dhragon]

What is the ratio of success in drafting a successful 1st round QB to an average or mediocre or bust qb?

Much, MUCH better than the ratio in drafting a successful non-first round QB to an average or mediocre or QB is I actually did this (using my own opinions on successful/average etc). It is alarming the horrid odds on non-1st rounders being "Franchise QBs" in relation to number of them drafted are. If I remember correctly it is like under 5% for any non-first rounder (most of the successful of those were 2nd rounders in fact) while first rounders were like 20% franchise and 40-45% quality starters.

 

[Dhragon]

Would you take him 4th overall?

Considering his improvement each year and how he was doing by the end of last year - most definitely. I think he will be 1st tier in a couple years.

 

[DandyDon52]

The past is the best predictor of the future.

No one thinks that Goff or Wentz is a Luck caliber quarterback. The NFL is littered with overrated QBs who were drafted in the first round, simply because teams value the QB position. Happens consistently.

Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman

That's just the list since Romo came into the league...

Well one thing to consider is the situation, coaches, scheme, team a QB is drafted into.
Many may have the ability but are put into what turns out to be a bad situation, so they never win championships.
It may not always be they are a bust or dont have the talent etc.

Rodgers was the luckiest one, he got on a good team with good coaches, who were already winning, and he got
to learn and be a bkup for 2-3 years.

Some go to a team with bad OL, and not any good wr or run game.
Some have stupid coaches or are forced into a system that doesnt fit them.

When RG 3 was in his rookie season, he was pretty good, but his coaches let him keep running and not sliding, he kept taking hits.
I said to myself at the time, they should bench him to get him to slide or run out of bounds, and couple weeks later
he hurt the knee.

Just imagine if you were a QB today, and got drafted by cleveland or some other bad team that you didnt want to go to,
and you knew you didnt fit what they run on offense.
There are many teams I would not want to be drafted by, and due to JG , I dont think I would want to play for him.
It would be very hard for any QB we draft to be good in JG's offense.
If we got Rodgers, he would struggle, or ad-lib things to make things work, but would probably retire to get away.

I think if you draft a QB who was good in college, you need to build a offense for them, and have some similarity's to what
they ran in college.
but most coaches have their "system" and force that on the QB they draft or get.

My point is many times the coaches are the problem not the QB, and then if it is a bad team,then what can you expect from the QB?

 

[DandyDon52]

I will add that if we drafted wentz or goff, I dont think our coaches could help them develop, or would tailor the offense to
their strengths.
If they get better they would have to self teach themselves and then somehow make a goofy offense work.

So maybe better to just get a top RB, but even there better get the right one for JG and linehan.
I dont think zeke is the one, I would go with henry.

 

[visionary]

Peyton Manning was highly sought after when he initially went into free agency, half the teams in the league wanted him.

Drew Brees was a first round draft pick and played well, but did not have a strong team around him.

Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer like I said also found themselves as free agents. And again, my point is not that you should try to exclusively get a guy in free agency, but you wait for the right player to come to you, you don't force it.

How do you know the Cowboys would be "forcing it" if they take a QB at 4? Maybe they have these QBs rated as top 10 picks?

You are making an argument based on an assumption you have no basis for

It is the same stuff people make up when they spout cliches like "don't reach in the draft" or "draft is about taking BPA"

Unless you have knowledge of the teams draft board how can you make that claim?

 

[visionary]

I swear my biggest pet peeve is people not paying attention to what someone actually says.

I didn't say you should wait around for a free agent. I said that is an option. Draft a qb in the 1st round is also an option. Drafting a quarterback in later rounds that you think has potential is also an option. Trading for a QB is also an option. Even getting a QB who has been franchised is an option.

The point is you have many options, and you should allow your options to come to you rather than reaching for a bad option at the time. Can't be anymore clear on this.

I think you're missing the point the rest of us are making

Yes, these other things are 'options' but they're 'bad options'

Can't reasonably draft a qb in Rd 6 or as UDFA and 'expect' to find a franchise an just because of Brady and romo

To have a higher likelihood of success you have to draft a qb in rd 1, preferably high

We gave the chance to do it this and we should

 

[Zimmy Lives]

I'm glad you agree there are many options to finding a franchise QB. Right now, the best option is to take one high in the draft while the opportunity is there. If he strikes out, look for another option.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

I'm not even saying you can't get a QB in the first round. I'm saying you shouldn't get one just to get one. When you break down that list, you see the majority of them are garbage, and quite a few of them aren't with the team that drafted them. Dallas has a Franchise QB right now, and that should be their focus.

How often does a stud first round QB hit the FA market? That's the real question because your list clearly shows a stud first round QB is by far the best chance you will have in acquiring top level QBs and winning Superbowls. Peyton was let go because he was injured and old and the Colts were right to let him go. Brees was also injured and a risk, that trade proved to be the wrong move by San Diego. The odds of Dallas landing a stud QB outside of the draft? Extremely slim. Not taking Wentz or Goff this year will probably cost them dearly when Romo retires, but Jerry might think it's worth that cost if he can win a Superbowl now. Wentz would be a no brainer but I dont know what it would take to trade up for him.

 

[jobberone]

Well one thing to consider is the situation, coaches, scheme, team a QB is drafted into.
Many may have the ability but are put into what turns out to be a bad situation, so they never win championships.
It may not always be they are a bust or dont have the talent etc.

Rodgers was the luckiest one, he got on a good team with good coaches, who were already winning, and he got
to learn and be a bkup for 2-3 years.

Some go to a team with bad OL, and not any good wr or run game.
Some have stupid coaches or are forced into a system that doesnt fit them.

When RG 3 was in his rookie season, he was pretty good, but his coaches let him keep running and not sliding, he kept taking hits.
I said to myself at the time, they should bench him to get him to slide or run out of bounds, and couple weeks later
he hurt the knee.

Just imagine if you were a QB today, and got drafted by cleveland or some other bad team that you didnt want to go to,
and you knew you didnt fit what they run on offense.
There are many teams I would not want to be drafted by, and due to JG , I dont think I would want to play for him.
It would be very hard for any QB we draft to be good in JG's offense.
If we got Rodgers, he would struggle, or ad-lib things to make things work, but would probably retire to get away.

I think if you draft a QB who was good in college, you need to build a offense for them, and have some similarity's to what
they ran in college.
but most coaches have their "system" and force that on the QB they draft or get.

My point is many times the coaches are the problem not the QB, and then if it is a bad team,then what can you expect from the QB?

Exactly what is it you think is a part of our offense that is so problematic? Be specific.

 

[jnday]

For this exercise what I'm going to do is list all the QBs who won a super bowl and how their team obtained them.

1. Peyton Manning - Free Agency
2. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
3. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
4. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
5. Eli Manning - 1st overall
6. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
7. Drew Brees - Free Agency
8. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
9. Eli Manning - 1st overall
10. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
11. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
12. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
13. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
14. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick
15. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick

Of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs seven were drafted in the first round by the team that drafted them, but that also complicates things. Only 5 of them are were individual winners and only two of them were top 10 picks.

My point is that there are a lot of ways to get the right quarterback and this idea that it has to be a top 5 or 10 pick doesn't really cut mustard. People are obsessed with the idea, even though most of these QBs drafted are busts.

I think we already have a franchise quarterback who best represents our chances at winning and to best his chances we need to create a team around him that is of high quality, which in term also helps any quarterback you try to develop after him. I would say the common theme for almost all of these teams is that they had great defenses or extremely explosive offenses (or both).

Let's say Romo retires in two years and he doesn't play the 4-5 that Jerry Jones suggests he could play. There will be options available just as there was for the Giants and Cardinals when they each got Kurt Warner, or the Broncos who got Peyton Manning, or the Saints who got Drew Brees, or Arizona who got Carson Palmer.

Don't forget the context of the history we've had at the QB position. We didn't struggle to find a QB for so long just because we waited until Aikman retired. We struggled because we didn't put many resources into finding one, and because the teams we had were garbage and didn't support a QB.

One arugment will be that we won't or shouldn't be so high in the draft again. So you're telling me that you wouldn't support trading up for a QB you really thought was a franchise QB? I'd give up 2 first round draft picks for such a QB. I think drafting a QB I don't really believe in at 4 is much worse than giving up 2 picks for one that I do believe in and that goes for a straight up trade or going after a franchised QB as well. Not to mention there is usually someone in free agency.

These rlite QBs grow on trees. There is no need to worry about the QB position in the future . Jerry found Aikman's replacement without even putting any effort into it.

 

[Galian Beast]

Well one thing to consider is the situation, coaches, scheme, team a QB is drafted into.
Many may have the ability but are put into what turns out to be a bad situation, so they never win championships.
It may not always be they are a bust or dont have the talent etc.

Rodgers was the luckiest one, he got on a good team with good coaches, who were already winning, and he got
to learn and be a bkup for 2-3 years.

Some go to a team with bad OL, and not any good wr or run game.
Some have stupid coaches or are forced into a system that doesnt fit them.

When RG 3 was in his rookie season, he was pretty good, but his coaches let him keep running and not sliding, he kept taking hits.
I said to myself at the time, they should bench him to get him to slide or run out of bounds, and couple weeks later
he hurt the knee.

Just imagine if you were a QB today, and got drafted by cleveland or some other bad team that you didnt want to go to,
and you knew you didnt fit what they run on offense.
There are many teams I would not want to be drafted by, and due to JG , I dont think I would want to play for him.
It would be very hard for any QB we draft to be good in JG's offense.
If we got Rodgers, he would struggle, or ad-lib things to make things work, but would probably retire to get away.

I think if you draft a QB who was good in college, you need to build a offense for them, and have some similarity's to what
they ran in college.
but most coaches have their "system" and force that on the QB they draft or get.

My point is many times the coaches are the problem not the QB, and then if it is a bad team,then what can you expect from the QB?

I agree completely. I think all of that matters, but I will also say that I don't have a lot of faith in this coaching staff or this team to support a young quarterback.

 

[Galian Beast]

I think you're missing the point the rest of us are making

Yes, these other things are 'options' but they're 'bad options'

Can't reasonably draft a qb in Rd 6 or as UDFA and 'expect' to find a franchise an just because of Brady and romo

To have a higher likelihood of success you have to draft a qb in rd 1, preferably high

We gave the chance to do it this and we should

You have a higher likelihood of success drafting one high in the first round, that doesn't mean you should reach for a player high.

Most years these guys are bottom of the 1st or in the 2nd round.

 

[visionary]

You have a higher likelihood of success drafting one high in the first round, that doesn't mean you should reach for a player high.

Most years these guys are bottom of the 1st or in the 2nd round.

Again with the "reach" comment

How do you know the Cowboys would be "reaching" if they take Wentz/Goff/Lynch at 4?

 

[BlindFaith]

You have a higher likelihood of success drafting one high in the first round, that doesn't mean you should reach for a player high.

Most years these guys are bottom of the 1st or in the 2nd round.

This is just nonsense. The same talent evaluators that rate players year in and year out have both Goff and Wentz as top 10 talent. So where's this reach you keep talking about? Or are we to go by your evaluations of the QBs?

I personally think Goff and Wentz will end up as better QBs than Winston and Mariotta.

 

[Galian Beast]

This is just nonsense. The same talent evaluators that rate players year in and year out have both Goff and Wentz as top 10 talent. So where's this reach you keep talking about? Or are we to go by your evaluations of the QBs?

I personally think Goff and Wentz will end up as better QBs than Winston and Mariotta.

The same evaluators that had Alex Smith the #1 overall pick?

 

[BlindFaith]

The same evaluators that had Alex Smith the #1 overall pick?

Alex Smith is very underrated.

Better to pick out someone like Russell or Leaf. Just sayin.

 

[Galian Beast]

Alex Smith is very underrated.

Better to pick out someone like Russell or Leaf. Just sayin.

A player doesn't have to be a complete bust for it to be clear they weren't worth the 1st overall pick, just like any qb we pick probably won't be worth the 4th overall pick.

Neither of these guys is highly heralded. They just happen to be the top guys...

 

[Nightman]

This is just nonsense. The same talent evaluators that rate players year in and year out have both Goff and Wentz as top 10 talent. So where's this reach you keep talking about? Or are we to go by your evaluations of the QBs?

I personally think Goff and Wentz will end up as better QBs than Winston and Mariotta.

It doesn't have to be one or the other.

They can draft Goff at 4 and draft a QB in the 6th or 7th to stash on the PS.

DAL has ignored the QB position for way too long.