Finding a Franchise QB

[Galian Beast]

Ok show me a link where it was fact that the past predicted every pick we took in last years draft. One by one. Waiting....

What does the word BEST mean to you? Does it mean ONLY?

 

[NEODOG]

I'm sorry, but your list is flawed. You count Tom Brady 4 times. That skews the list. He should only count once. To be fair, you, you also have to take out Eli, Peyton and Roth once as well.

Peyton was a 1st overall pick. Just because he switched teams doesn't change his draft status. And Brees was the first pick of the second round for SD. Call it a borderline 1st rounder.

1. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
2. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
3. Joe Flacco - 18th overall
4. Eli Manning - 1st overall
5. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall
6. Drew Brees - 1st pick, 2nd round
7. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall
8. Peyton Manning - 1st overall
9. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick

So 5 of the 9 were 1st round picks. A 6th (Brees) was a borderline 1st round pick. And 1 (Brady) was a complete Hail Mary fluke. The Pats were just as lucky in finding Brady and Jerry was in finding Romo. If you think trolling around the 6th round will net you a franchise QB, your dreaming. As for Brad Johnson, he can thank Sapp, Brooks, Lynch, etc. for his SB win.

So if you want a franchise QB, you have to go to the first round. Preferably high. Otherwise, your just looking to get lucky. It's like relying on winning the Powerball as your retirement plan.

Here's a simple math fact:
4 out of 20

Both have Manning as a last name
Both drafted Top 5

You wanna talk flawed design.... Let's talk about THAT

Exactly 2 QB's have won a SB that were drafted in the Top 5 in the last 20yrs.....

Seems to me we pick in the Top 5......and we have a wholly grail find sitting at QB presently....... It's a crap shoot at best with the odds definitely stacked not in our favor drafting a QB at #4

 

[Galian Beast]

Sure. Lets wait around for a franchise QB to become a free agent. There's lots of time. If your lucky, you might get one before the century is over.

Kurt Warner was washed up with the Giants. His career looked to be over. To his credit, he gained a second life in Arizona, who were desperate and took a flyer on him. Larry Fitzgerald helped the reclamation project. But it was what 2 or 3 years? Then he was done for good.

Carson Palmer had had enough of the losing culture in Cincinnati and quit. The Raiders signed him and he did squat for them. Again, a rebound in Arizona. But he doesn't have more than a couple of years left either.

Dozens of QB's hit the free agent market every single year. Picking one reclamation project every few years and holding that up as a way of finding a franchise QB makes no sense.

Again, these pickups you describe are like winning a lottery. It's no way to build a team.

Also Carson Palmer is a great example going to Oakland who had a terrible team. Arizona had a great defense, allowing Palmer to deliver for them. You build a team and let your options come to you, and you can have a lot more success.

Arizona has had a lot more success than Dallas and they've done it with Free Agent Kurt Warner and Free Agent Carson Palmer in the same time we've had a franchise QB in Romo.

 

[Stash]

Here's a much better version of the facts:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

What does the word BEST mean to you? Does it mean ONLY?

You said it predicted the future. Show me a link where it was predicted in each round.

 

[Galian Beast]

You said it predicted the future. Show me a link where it was predicted in each round.

Actually what I said was the past is the BEST predictor of the future. I did not say it is the only predictor of the future or that it is flawless in predicting the future. If you took it to mean either of those things, I would be concerned for you.

 

[Doomsday101]

Again, the argument wasn't let's draft a QB in the 6th round this year.

The argument is that drafting a QB just to draft a QB in the first round doesn't make sense, and the results are more often than not a disaster.

I would not do it just to do it just to do it. 2 or 3 years ago I was not interested in getting a QB. Now Dallas has a 36 year old QB who is now taking on more injuries, I think realistically he could play for a couple more season. In the meantime I would like to have a QB that can learn and train behind him a guy who by the time he takes over will have an understanding of the offense not learning on the field. Much like Rodgers. I do think many highly drafted QB do fail, often they are guys who really needed to stay the extra year in school and mature and 2nd they are often drafted by teams who have little talent around them so they are put into a situation where they have to carry the team and they are not ready for that.
In Dallas situation we can compete right now with Romo, we have some talented players on this team and while we have holes to address we can do that with FA and the remainder of the draft.
I think Dallas is in a very good situation we can compete and we can look to life after Romo. The alternative is what has been seen before when Aikman left where this team QB situation rested in the hands of poor players and it took a while and luck to finally come up with Tony Romo, I would just as soon not repeat the past mistake

 

[Sarge]

21 of current starting QBs in NFL were 1st round picks. For Dallas to think they are going to out-smart the league and get their franchise QB in middle rounds is overly optimistic. If Dallas doesn't like QBs early in this draft then just by-pass it until next year because its senseless to blow middle rounds picks as token gesture for fans to feel better about it.

Spot on.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

The past is the best predictor of the future.

No one thinks that Goff or Wentz is a Luck caliber quarterback. The NFL is littered with overrated QBs who were drafted in the first round, simply because teams value the QB position. Happens consistently.

Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman

That's just the list since Romo came into the league...[/quote

I completely agree with your post. We should not take a QB just to be taking one. I also want to ask your thoughts about the list you put together. As you mentioned a lot of that list have not be real successful and thus prove a point about using a 1st round pick on a QB just to get one. But given our situation, how many on that list would have not been horrible and actually turned into a franchise QB given 2-3 years to learn from Romo. The common denominator for most of them is that they were day one starters and that is either sink or swim. There are quite a few QBs on your list that were very talented and I think would have been really good to great QB given the time to learn the game as any draft pick we take will be given. That is a huge advantage to us. So while I do not think that Wentz, Lynch, or the others will be day one starter franchise QB. I do think that in our situation, we can take one at 4, 15(tradeback) or 2nd round and they will be just fine.

 

[Galian Beast]

I would not do it just to do it just to do it. 2 or 3 years ago I was not interested in getting a QB. Now Dallas has a 36 year old QB who is now taking on more injuries, I think realistically he could play for a couple more season. In the meantime I would like to have a QB that can learn and train behind him a guy who by the time he takes over will have an understanding of the offense not learning on the field. Much like Rodgers. I do think many highly drafted QB do fail, often they are guys who really needed to stay the extra year in school and mature and 2nd they are often drafted by teams who have little talent around them so they are put into a situation where they have to carry the team and they are not ready for that.
In Dallas situation we can compete right now with Romo, we have some talented players on this team and while we have holes to address we can do that with FA and the remainder of the draft.
I think Dallas is in a very good situation we can compete and we can look to life after Romo. The alternative is what has been seen before when Aikman left where this team QB situation rested in the hands of poor players and it took a while and luck to finally come up with Tony Romo, I would just as soon not repeat the past mistake

We can also look at QBs who sit for a while and we still see high levels of failure there as well. Sitting and learning may also be a bit overrated. How many players have benefited by sitting and waiting in the last 20 years?

And I'd reiterate that I'm not saying to sit on their hands after Romo or even to wait until Romo is done. I find it troubling that people don't see a more nuanced approach here. It's all or nothing with a lot of posters.

 

[Doomsday101]

We can also look at QBs who sit for a while and we still see high levels of failure there as well. Sitting and learning may also be a bit overrated. How many players have benefited by sitting and waiting in the last 20 years?

And I'd reiterate that I'm not saying to sit on their hands after Romo or even to wait until Romo is done. I find it troubling that people don't see a more nuanced approach here. It's all or nothing with a lot of posters.

I'm not interested in some late rd pick QB I don't think another Clint Stoner or McGee is the solution. I think FA can be great but it becomes very expensive when talking QB and not a rout I would like to see the Cowboys use. I would like Dallas to get a young QB who has top talent to give him a real chance at developing not some late rd pick with a hope and prayer they will develop. You think 1st rd picks bust but later rd QB fail at a lot bigger rate but no one talks about that because they were just a late rd pick. To me QB is too important to waste this chance.

 

[Galian Beast]

I'm not interested in some late rd pick QB I don't think another Clint Stoner or McGee is the solution. I think FA can be great but it becomes very expensive when talking QB and not a rout I would like to see the Cowboys use. I would like Dallas to get a young QB who has top talent to give him a real chance at developing not some late rd pick with a hope and prayer they will develop. You think 1st rd picks bust but later rd QB fail at a lot bigger rate but no one talks about that because they were just a late rd pick. To me QB is too important to waste this chance.

Best chance at winning a super bowl is having a franchise qb, we have that already. Looking forward to a new QB means rolling the dice completely over again, with no real reason to believe in success.

 

[Doomsday101]

Best chance at winning a super bowl is having a franchise qb, we have that already. Looking forward to a new QB means rolling the dice completely over again, with no real reason to believe in success.

yes we do but he is also on the tail end of his career, he is 36 with back issues. hell he can't practice the full week and you think he is going to play another 3 or 4 years? I agree getting a QB is rolling the dice but if I gamble I would do so with a player who has the best chance of developing and those guys are at the top of the draft. They are not there by accident they are there because teams watch, review and grade them.

 

[Galian Beast]

yes we do but he is also on the tail end of his career, he is 36 with back issues. hell he can't practice the full week and you think he is going to play another 3 or 4 years? I agree getting a QB is rolling the dice but if I gamble I would do so with a player who has the best chance of developing and those guys are at the top of the draft. They are not there by accident they are there because teams watch, review and grade them.

Not many teams have franchise QBs, many teams try and fail to draft a franchise player in the first round. Logic suggest dancing with the one that brought you.

 

[Doomsday101]

Not many teams have franchise QBs, many teams try and fail to draft a franchise player in the first round. Logic suggest dancing with the one that brought you.

Your right many teams would kill to find a QB, we have one and a chance to address it now.

 

[Galian Beast]

Your right many teams would kill to find a QB, we have one and a chance to address it now.

We have a chance to draft a quarterback high, that doesn't mean we found a QB... Just drafting a guy high doesn't make him worthy of the spot. And a quick look at history would tell you that.

 

[Stash]

We have a chance to draft a quarterback high, that doesn't mean we found a QB... Just drafting a guy high doesn't make him worthy of the spot. And a quick look at history would tell you that.

Wrong. A well-researched look at history will tell you exactly that. But I'm sure you avoided the link that I posted in this thread because it completely refutes the ill-conceived case you're trying to make here. You should stop.

 

[Galian Beast]

Wrong. A well-researched look at history will tell you exactly that. But I'm sure you avoided the link that I posted in this thread because it completely refutes the ill-conceived case you're trying to make here. You should stop.

What is the ratio of success in drafting a successful 1st round QB to an average or mediocre or bust qb?

 

[Dhragon]

For this exercise what I'm going to do is list all the QBs who won a super bowl and how their team obtained them.

1. Peyton Manning - Free Agency QB wasn't a factor in SB win - Defense

2. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick Once in a lifetime type lotto winner for Patriots. Would have so little as to have no chance to replicate finding a Tom Brady in the draft in 6th round ourselves. Besides, we're not cheaters.

3. Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick Best one to prove your point.

4. Joe Flacco - 18th overall 1st rounder - how about that

5. Eli Manning - 1st overall 1st rounder - how about that

6. Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall 1st rounder - how about that

7. Drew Brees - Free Agency Second QB drafted that year - we would be drafting the second QB this year if we went with one at #4. Unless you are proposing waiting for a high potential QB coming onto the market because of iffy injury at the time, not happening for us. No one knew how Bree's shoulder would affect him at the time - worked out for Saints.

8. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall 1st rounder - how about that

9. Eli Manning - 1st overall 1st rounder - how about that

10. Peyton Manning - 1st overall 1st rounder - how about that

11. Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall 1st rounder - how about that

12. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick Once in a lifetime type lotto winner for Patriots. Would have so little as to have no chance to replicate finding a Tom Brady in the draft in 6th round ourselves. Besides, we're not cheaters.

13. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick Once in a lifetime type lotto winner for Patriots. Would have so little as to have no chance to replicate finding a Tom Brady in the draft in 6th round ourselves. Besides, we're not cheaters.

14. Brad Johnson - 9th round draft pick Just No - Johnson not reason they won anything.

15. Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick Once in a lifetime type lotto winner for Patriots. Would have so little as to have no chance to replicate finding a Tom Brady in the draft in 6th round ourselves. Besides, we're not cheaters.

Of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs seven were drafted in the first round by the team that drafted them, but that also complicates things. Only 5 of them are were individual winners and only two of them were top 10 picks. That's primarily only because you are counting Brady multiple times as well as defensive SB winners who won despite QB play. Looks to me as if 1st rounders are the way to go

My point is that there are a lot of ways to get the right quarterback and this idea that it has to be a top 5 or 10 pick doesn't really cut mustard. People are obsessed with the idea, even though most of these QBs drafted are busts. So are most F/A Qbs and 6th round QBs, yet you use them to try and build a case for yourself

I think we already have a franchise quarterback who best represents our chances at winning and to best his chances we need to create a team around him that is of high quality, which in term also helps any quarterback you try to develop after him. I would say the common theme for almost all of these teams is that they had great defenses or extremely explosive offenses (or both). Romo is great but fragile nowadays. Very risky to count on anymore.

Let's say Romo retires in two years and he doesn't play the 4-5 that Jerry Jones suggests he could play. There will be options available just as there was for the Giants and Cardinals when they each got Kurt Warner, or the Broncos who got Peyton Manning, or the Saints who got Drew Brees, or Arizona who got Carson Palmer. Or a Weeden, or a Cassell type - you know, the typical F/A usually available. Good ones rarely come on the market. What great F/A are there this year for example? Nada!

Don't forget the context of the history we've had at the QB position. We didn't struggle to find a QB for so long just because we waited until Aikman retired. We struggled because we didn't put many resources into finding one, and because the teams we had were garbage and didn't support a QB. True, I agree. It's possible Jerry will try next time - most likely when it will cost us much more ( having to trade up from mid round to top of the round instead of just using a #4 pick for example - So probably cost us 2 first rounders instead of one )

One arugment will be that we won't or shouldn't be so high in the draft again. So you're telling me that you wouldn't support trading up for a QB you really thought was a franchise QB? I'd give up 2 first round draft picks for such a QB. I think drafting a QB I don't really believe in at 4 is much worse than giving up 2 picks for one that I do believe in and that goes for a straight up trade or going after a franchised QB as well. Not to mention there is usually someone in free agency. Just because you THINK one is a franchise QB doesn't mean he is.Then we would lose not just one pick at #4 but multiple 1st rounders - yuck - Got to play the odds. Odds say strike now at #4 - though Jerry already said we wouldn't.

 

[Galian Beast]

I'd say QB wasn't a factor in winning this year, but certainly got them far the previous year. He just ran out of gas.

The QBs that weren't a factor also help prove my point that you should get the best player available and create a strong team over reaching for a QB.

I'm not saying we should wait for a QB to enter free agency, I'm saying we should wait to find the quarterback that is worth acquiring rather than saying, hey we need a QB let's use a 4th rounder on one just because.

The odds say that any quarterback we draft right now is likely to be a bust.