First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[kskboys]

All these guys are talented . It’s how they fit and how you developed and nurture them. And their own work ethics

Heck dak was considered a backup prospect and they squeezed every drop out of his marginal talents, he has basically no wow moments on the field

Except you missed the big one. It's how they read a D and go through their possessions. The talent needed for QB in the NFL is primarily mental. They absolutely must be able to handle the speed of the game. A QB must be capable of making a thousand little decisions and reads in a couple of seconds or less. No matter how much work they do or how much you develop them, if they don't have this trait it's all for nought. And this trait is rare.

 

[kskboys]

Certainly more then he ended up with. Some others probably end up with SB wins if not for the NE Dynasty. ITs like in the AFC in the 70's you basically had three teams: Steelers, Raiders, and early on the Dolphins and that was it. No one else got a look in. Ken Anderson of the Bengals was an excellent QB but stuck in the AFC Central during that time. and when he does get to the SB he runs into Montana.

Judging a QB purely by super bowls is just ignorant. Marino is easily top 5 all time w/ zero super bowls. And then there's good QB's like Andrew Luck and Archie Manning who had the bad luck of going to the wrong franchise. And then there's the case of Marc Bulger, an emerging QB who was looking very good until he ran into the stupid Mike Martz O, where the QB gets beat up because he has to hold the ball way too long waiting for the long developing routes to materialize. Steve Young wins at least one more if not for the Cowboys.

Boomer Esiason another good one.

It's this younger generation who started judging QB's strictly on super bowls. Just pure laziness. They want to put Jim Plunkett in the HOF when everyone knows he was a below average QB who ran into the Raiders D to get 2 super bowl wins.

 

[FanofJerry]

Except you missed the big one. It's how they read a D and go through their possessions. The talent needed for QB in the NFL is primarily mental. They absolutely must be able to handle the speed of the game. A QB must be capable of making a thousand little decisions and reads in a couple of seconds or less. No matter how much work they do or how much you develop them, if they don't have this trait it's all for nought. And this trait is rare.

But only 13 guys in 24 years an 768 attempts at a Super Bowl have got it done. That ends at 2000 because I wanted "modern" to not be refuted here. Scale it back to 1990 and you get similar results because of Elway and Aikman winning winning 5 of those.

Its not some easy gig. NFL production compensation program probably should have given Purdy at least 5M...he got $900,000. Owners get away with stealing value on that one.

The options are:

1) Find Michael Jordan at QB - Good luck keeping your job or the locker room. Wasting a once in a lifetime player like Parsons career wont take long and he will ask out sooner rather than later. A lot of teams have good players that dont want their careers wasted. Side step it though.

2) Target a QB in the Draft that has a certain personality trait(composed under pressure. Eli Manning essentially). You take advantage of stealing cheap labor and hope you can put a strong running game and defense around a rookie contract....but hope the kid can pass well enough under pressure to get you crucial 3rd and longs in tough games.

3) Is pay a good bus driver. Prices are high and thats not the players fault. No one is giving up 15M per year on a 4 or 5 year contract to take a team discount. Brady and Mahommes are perfect examples of this all being by design. Of course the two best QB's just happened to take good deals from their teams so all the anti-pay crowd can say "look look look!"

Every QB not Brady and Mahommes has issue and cant get it done routinely. So...constantly arguing about other QBs traits is a waste of time to me. Two guys have got it done and one looks way more special than the other on a football field(Mahommes).

Three years of drafting with McClay puts rook contract players on the field based on the past 5 years history of his drafting non-QB players. Unfortunately, I doubt he finds Michael Jordan within 3 years. He might draft a good one...but chances of that player winning a Bowl on rookie deal is low too. And then...he hasnt won and his next contract is up. What do you do? Waste 4 years of development and kick the player to the curb?

 

[CowboyFrog]

You think being extremely bad for a few seasons is such a terrible thing? Think what would happen to ratings if the Cowboys won fewer than 5 games per season for 3 seasons straight. If something like that happens, the league will start pulling them off national broadcasts…

The only thing that the Jones’ actually care about. The one thing that will actually rattle their cage. That could actually start a true rebuild.

they have had those seasons, what changed...again this club was a 5 win team during Campo, Gailey...what changed..he raised the money and built a new stadium? Oooh yes Bill P came here and won playoff games..wait no he didnt he couldnt overcome Jerrry...was Romo not brought in during the Tuna's tenure?..again what changed....

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Except you missed the big one. It's how they read a D and go through their possessions. The talent needed for QB in the NFL is primarily mental. They absolutely must be able to handle the speed of the game. A QB must be capable of making a thousand little decisions and reads in a couple of seconds or less. No matter how much work they do or how much you develop them, if they don't have this trait it's all for nought. And this trait is rare.

It’s a unique position for sure. To have career ending athletes barreling down on you in every play and be tasked with making a decision within2-3 seconds . Have to have a level of trust and a freedom in the consequences might not go your way.

 

[1942willys]

Judging a QB purely by super bowls is just ignorant. Marino is easily top 5 all time w/ zero super bowls. And then there's good QB's like Andrew Luck and Archie Manning who had the bad luck of going to the wrong franchise. And then there's the case of Marc Bulger, an emerging QB who was looking very good until he ran into the stupid Mike Martz O, where the QB gets beat up because he has to hold the ball way too long waiting for the long developing routes to materialize. Steve Young wins at least one more if not for the Cowboys.

Boomer Esiason another good one.

It's this younger generation who started judging QB's strictly on super bowls. Just pure laziness. They want to put Jim Plunkett in the HOF when everyone knows he was a below average QB who ran into the Raiders D to get 2 super bowl wins.

Plunkett played well in both SBs so he did earn it. But its like those saying Eli is going to the HOF because of his two rings. Same stupidity in many ways.

 

[zrinkill]

OK

I have a stat for ya

In the last 5 Superbowl wins 4 of them were won by a first round QB

And winning the Superbowl should be all that matters ....... not winning regular season games.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

Browns are not rebuilding. They won 11 games and made the playoffs. They have a talented roster.

Commodes have been doing something for the past few decades but I wouldn't call it rebuilding so much as repetitious, poorly conceived all ins and misevaluations.

The main concern is that Jones would not have learned from how he responded to Aikman's retirement. Trading away/using premium assets and then hyping questionable prospects in Hutchinson and Henson for example.

Even then he is better positioned because of Lance. He has a QB that can play and been in the system in hand. If he sucks so be it.

I was referring to the Browns of 1999-2021. Went through more QB's trying to find the right guy and never could do it. Not so sure they have done it yet.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

OK

I have a stat for ya

In the last 5 Superbowl wins 4 of them were won by a first round QB

And winning the Superbowl should be all that matters ....... not winning regular season games.

That's a nice stat except three of the four were by the same guy, Patrick Mahomes.

If the Super Bowl is the only way to measure a QB than about 30 teams need a new franchise passer every year.

 

[zrinkill]

That's a nice stat except three of the four were by the same guy, Patrick Mahomes.

If the Super Bowl is the only way to measure a QB than about 30 teams need a new franchise passer every year.

Last 10 SB winning QB's

1st round QB's - 5

3rd round QB's - 1

Tom Brady - 4

 

[zrinkill]

last 20 SB winning QB's

1st rounds Qb's - 12

2nd round QB's - 1

3rd round QB's 2

Tom Brady - 5

 

[CT Dal Fan]

last 20 SB winning QB's

1st rounds Qb's - 12

2nd round QB's - 1

3rd round QB's 2

Tom Brady - 5

Great points but again how many of those were different QB's? The chances of finding a Super Bowl QB in the first round is way worse than finding another Kyler Murray, Josh Rosen, Justin Fields, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Paxton Lynch, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Sam Bradford, Christian Ponder, Mac Jones, Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones, Zack Wilson, Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill, and on and on and on.

 

[zrinkill]

Great points but again how many of those were different QB's? The chances of finding a Super Bowl QB in the first round is way worse than finding another Kyler Murray, Josh Rosen, Justin Fields, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Paxton Lynch, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Sam Bradford, Christian Ponder, Mac Jones, Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones, Zack Wilson, Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill, and on and on and on.

Elli, Payton, Aaron, Ben, Mathew, Patrick, Joe ...... so 7 different QB's.

How hard is it to find a SB winning QB in the 4th round or undrafted ? Because that's where the Jones's have looked since Troy won 3.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Elli, Payton, Aaron, Ben, Mathew, Patrick, Joe ...... so 7 different QB's.

How hard is it to find a SB winning QB in the 4th round or undrafted ? Because that's where the Jones's have looked since Troy won 3.

Quincy was a 2nd rounder..we sent 2 1st to Seattle for joey Galloway...lol

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Brady has 7 SB wins and Montana has 4 which is 11 between them. Not bad for 6th and 3rd round picks. Brady is the only 40+ QB to win a SB.

3rd round picks don't surprise me as much. 5th and later do. can it happen? obvoiusly as it has, but if you want to look at Elite QBs, some of whom may not win superbowls, then top 10 picks dominate by a mile. its all about probabilities.

 

[zrinkill]

Quincy was a 2nd rounder..we sent 2 1st to Seattle for joey Galloway...lol

My mind blocked that loser from my memory.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

What do you mean what?

You objected to the way I assessed the two QBs. I'm giving Coop a HUGE amount of slack. I'm gonna laser in on Dak. Just the way it is...deal with it.

what!?

why are you arguing with yourself?

 

[KJJ]

3rd round picks don't surprise me as much. 5th and later do. can it happen? obvoiusly as it has, but if you want to look at Elite QBs, some of whom may not win superbowls, then top 10 picks dominate by a mile. its all about probabilities.

Your best odds on hitting on a QB is in the top 10 but even then it’s about 50-50. The odds drop even lower after the top 10. Lamar Jackson is the only QB I can think of in the last several years who was taken after the top 10 in the first round that’s developed into a franchise QB. I’m a believer that you don’t take a QB in the first round unless you’re in dire need of a QB. Other than that I’ll take my chances later in the draft, that way if I miss it’s not a huge setback.

 

[perrykemp]

Lamar Jackson is the only QB I can think of in the last several years who was taken after the top 10 in the first round that’s developed into a franchise QB.

Think Love has a shot based on his trajectory in the back half of the last season, however, too early to tell.

 

[MikeT22]

.

Your best odds on hitting on a QB is in the top 10 but even then it’s about 50-50. The odds drop even lower after the top 10. Lamar Jackson is the only QB I can think of in the last several years who was taken after the top 10 in the first round that’s developed into a franchise QB. I’m a believer that you don’t take a QB in the first round unless you’re in dire need of a QB. Other than that I’ll take my chances later in the draft, that way if I miss it’s not a huge setback.

30 years isn’t a huge setback, noted.