Are you so sure? Lets start looking at all the 1st Round QBs from the past decade+
Starting with the 2018 Draft Class:
- Baker Mayfield
- #1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
- Started 13 games
- With 27 TDs
- Prorated to just under 34 in 16 games
- But with 14 Ints
- Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
- Sam Darnold
- #3 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
- Started 13 games
- With 17 TDs
- Prorated to just under 21 in 16 games
- But with 15 Ints
- Prorated to just over 18 Ints in 16 games
- Josh Allen
- #7 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
- Started 11 games
- With 10 TDs
- Prorated to less than 15 TDs in 16 games
- But with 12 Ints
- Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
- Josh Rosen
- #10 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
- Started 13 games
- Threw 11 TDs
- Prorated to less than 14 TDs in 16 games
- But with 14 Ints
- Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
- Lamar Jackson
- #32 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
- Started 7 games
- Threw 6 TDs
- Prorated to less than 14 TDs in 16 games
- With only 3 Ints
- Prorated to just under 7 Ints in 16 games
So only one QB (Mayfield) Topped Prescott's career low of 22 TDs. And only one was under Prescott's career high for Ints in a season (Jackson). Then on top of that, 3 of the 5 was on schedule to throw for less than a TD per start. ouch.
How about 2017?
Trubisky? Very Dak-like with 24 TDs and 12 Ints his 2nd year. And Watson also a pretty Dak-like with 26 TDs and 9 Ints last year as well. Only Mahomes is CLEARLY better than Dak. So 1 of 3 there.
How about 2016?
2 of 3 have put up better passing TDs than Dak (Goff and Wentz), but both also have their issues as well (not clutch and injury prone). The third 1st Round QB? Lynch (#26 overall) is NO LONGER IN THE NFL and has 4 CAREER TDs.
How about 2015?
Winston and Mariota have a combined 2 seasons (out of 8) where they passed for more than 22 TDs in a season. And they only have 3 combined seasons of 20+ TDs between them.
How about 2014?
Bortles, Manzel and Bridgewater have a combined 2 seasons (out of 11) where they passed for more than 22 TDs in a season. Bortles has both, a 23 TD year in 2016 and an completely out of character 35 TD season in 2015.
How about 2013?
Only one first round QB that year, Manual, and his career high in Passing TDs was 11 his rookie year.
How about 2012?
Between Luck, Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden, only 8 seasons (out of 27) between them with more than 22 Passing TDs in a season, and Luck owns 5 of those seasons. The rest are 3 of 20.
How about 2011?
Between Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, they have a combine 3 seasons (out of 26) between them with more than 22 Passing TDs. All 3 belong to Cam, and 2 of the 3 he topped out at 24 TDs those two years.
How about 2010?
Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow failed to throw for at least 22 TDs between them (Bradford's career high was 21)
How about 2009?
Between Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman, only 8 seasons (out of 27) where they threw for more than 22 Passing TDs in a season. And much like Luck in 2012, Stafford owns 5 of those.
How about 2008?
Matt Ryan has beaten 22 Passing TDs in a season in 7 of his 11 career years. (pretty good). The other 1st Round QB Joe Flacco? Only 2 of his 11 career years did he top 22 passing TDs.
So over a DECADE of 1st Round QBs, and if you are LUCKY (no pun attended), you have less than a 25% chance of drafting someone who can put up significantly higher than 22 TDs a season during most of their seasons.
Therefore, unless you know you are drafting one of the "special" guys, like Ryan, Stafford, Luck or Mahomes, there is a better chance than not that you are drafting a QB in the first round, that MAY produce as good as Dak.
So much for it being "easy" to replacing Dak's passing TD production.
P.S. After looking at the 1st Round QBs of the past decade, I was even shocked on how infrequently 1st Round QBs hit the "22+ Passing TD Benchmark". Therefore, I have come to appreciate Dak even that much more than I did before. And heaven help the "Dak haters" if he ever puts up a 30+ Passing TD season. Oh, those will be fun times.