cmoney23
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,761
- Reaction score
- 2,270
Explaining the tiers
• Once we had averaged the results for each QB, we rounded the numbers to the nearest tiers -- so that a 2.49 would round to Tier 2 and a 2.50 would round to Tier 3, and so on.
• Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information added one point for every one-tier gap between a QB's average tier level and a voter's ballot. For example: placing Luck in Tier 1 created a 13-point penalty, counting one point for the 11 voters placing him in Tier 2 (one tier removed from his average) and two points for the one person who placed him in the Tier 3 (two tiers removed). Moving Luck into the second tier created a 15-point penalty (14 points for the 14 first-tier votes and one point for the single third-tier vote). This linear penalty system bumped Luck into Tier 1.
Tier's 1 and 2
T-1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (1.04 average rating)
I was deep into this project when ESPN Insider published Sam Monson's piece highlighting Brady's diminished production while under pressure. Monson questioned Brady's status as one of the top five QBs. Still, none of the people I spoke with thought Brady had slipped to a significant degree. Twenty-five of the 26 voters put him in the first tier. The lone exception, a pro personnel evaluator, saved his only Tier 1 vote for Peyton Manning. He was an unusually tough grader at the top, focused more intently than others on the 2013 season, when Manning performed at a historic level.
"Brady did a lot of good things with limited resources, but I saw holes when they put the onus on him to carry it all, as you saw when Denver beat him," this evaluator said. "Brady has to have more of a running game at this stage. He cannot line up with five wides and win it as consistently as before. I still think Brady is a top-five quarterback, but I would not say he is the best right now."
That was a minority opinion. A veteran offensive assistant who listed Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Luck as his Tier 1 QBs said the first three were pretty much interchangeable.
"Brady might be the best because he does it with the least every year, just about," this offensive assistant said. "To me, there is no falloff with that guy. If he played with what Rodgers and Peyton and Brees have played with, it would not even be close. He has not had an outside guy since Randy Moss. These other guys have outside guys coming out of their ears, especially Peyton and Rodgers. It is such a difference when you have outside guys that can stretch, like Manning had in Indy. Then he'd kill you with the inside guys. Brady doesn't have half the skill players that Manning has. The thing that is scary is that sneakily, the Patriots were pretty good last year anyway."
From 2006 through 2012, Brady trailed only Manning in Total QBR at 74.8. That figure fell off to 48.6 through eight games last season as the Patriots lost nearly all their top weapons, but it was back to 73.1 over the final eight games, fourth-best in the league over that span.
T-1. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (1.04 average rating)
Not much explanation required here. All Manning did last season was set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes.
One of the evaluators with a background in pro personnel nearly gave Manning a Tier 2 grade on our first run through the ballot. Then, he started laughing.
"As soon as I said two, I was like, 'Really?' " the evaluator said. "Arm strength is such an issue at this point and the smart teams are going to neutralize him easier than others, but he is a one."
Manning received his only Tier 2 grade from a GM concerned that the QB's age had hampered his ability to avoid the rush. Brady, Brees and Rodgers were the only Tier 1 QBs on this GM's ballot. Exceptions such as these could say more about the voting process than the players. "It's an incredible accomplishment if you can get everyone in the building on the same scale," another GM said.
T-1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1.04 average rating)
If Rodgers gives up anything to Brady and Manning before the snap -- which is debatable -- his athletic ability seems to make up for it.
"You can't fool him," a defensive coordinator said. "We watched some cutups on him and he was ridiculous. He sees everything. They'd have a blitz on and he'd throw it and he knows what the blitz is. I don't know how he knows it. He throws into this tight window that nobody would throw into. Brees is the same way."
A veteran cornerback I talked to this offseason put it this way: "He is very cerebral. I don't think he is quite like a Peyton Manning, but he can read defenses and all that stuff, and when stuff breaks down, he is mobile enough to get out of the pocket and run. That is what made him so good, especially a couple years ago. He is still playing well. He just got hurt last year."
T-1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (1.04 average rating)
Brees' credentials need no explanation. Still, most placed him just behind Brady and Manning within the top tier.
One evaluator said he thought Brees wasn't as good outdoors. But Brady wasn't any better statistically in outdoor road games last season. Among Tier 1 QBs, only Manning (83.0 QBR) and Luck (59.1) were particularly good in outdoor road games.
"The best guys bring everyone else's level up and the guys around them can change and they still play at a high level," an offensive coordinator said. "You saw that comment by Brees talking about Jimmy Graham and he was saying, 'Well, Jimmy is really good, but I've been here for eight years and Jimmy was not here for four of those years and we still had the big numbers.' With these Tier 1 guys, they're productive almost regardless."
One evaluator questioned whether Brees could hang with the other Tier 1 players when his team fell behind by 21 or 28 points. Since 2010, counting the playoffs, Brady is 2-1 and Manning is 1-3 when their teams fall behind by 21-28 points. Their QBR scores were exceptional in those situations (90.9 for Brady and 88.3 for Manning). Rodgers went 0-2 in those games, but played respectably (64.6 QBR). Brees, meanwhile, had an 0-5 record in these games and a 52.6 QBR.
5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (1.50 average rating)
Luck doesn't have the track record of the other Tier 1 QBs, and there was a clear gap in the voting between him and the top four. But people in the league love him almost unconditionally, and 14 of the 26 voters insisted upon putting him in the top tier (each of the top four received 25 of 26 Tier 1 votes).
The evaluators think Luck has carried a subpar roster to a 22-10 record without much help. They see no limitations. They have zero doubt about his long-term stardom and felt strongly enough to give him 14 first-tier votes even while acknowledging he's below the Big Four at this early stage. Every other QB fell into the tier in which he received the most votes, and So shall Luck, even if his Tier 1 designation feels a bit premature.
6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (1.77 average rating)
Quite a few analysts said they would ideally put Rivers and Roethlisberger in the 1.5 range -- better than the typical Tier 2 player, but not as dynamic as the Tier 1 QBs. Eighteen of the 26 voters placed Rivers in the second tier. The same was true for Roethlisberger.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.85 average rating)
One of the offensive coaches placed Rivers and Roethlisberger in the top tier. He noted that Rivers wins with his mind while Roethlisberger wins with his physical abilities. Several GMs said they thought Roethlisberger had declined into the second tier over the past couple seasons. "If you were there in Pittsburgh, you saw him run the no-huddle, you saw the command, you saw him run and make plays," a coordinator said. "Other people will not think as much of him. He is a very good quarterback, able to get himself out of tough positions."
T-8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (2.23 average rating)
I was surprised to see Ryan command zero Tier 1 votes and six Tier 3 votes. Nearly everyone said Ryan needed to prove himself in the playoffs. There was a feeling Ryan would never be able to carry his team the way the very best QBs have.
T-8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (2.23 average rating)
A few evaluators questioned whether Romo had the mind-set to play at the highest level consistently. It's a familiar refrain in league circles, a feeling that Romo is an undisciplined QB playing for an undisciplined organization with a poorly constructed roster.
"People want to knock him," one GM responded, "but the guy has talent and is one of the top 10 starters in the league."
Romo is 34 years old and coming off back surgery, but he still could be in line for a "monster" season, one evaluator said. "But I absolutely believe they will not win big with him. As soon as he decides it's a clutch moment, his brain goes elsewhere. He loses focus and tries to create something."
T-8. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (2.23 average rating)
T-8. Eli Manning, New York Giants (2.23 average rating)
Quite a few voters paused and feigned anguish when asked to make sense of Manning following a brutal 2013 season. Seventeen of them placed Manning in the second tier.
"He is really a two when you supply him with the right weapons," a head coach said. "He is a guy that has the ultimate trust in a big wide receiver."
Some thought Manning would benefit from a scheme change this offseason, but most of the voters placing him in the second tier sounded a little apprehensive. "I see Eli having a hard time generating things on his own," one GM said. "I don't see a great decision-maker. He has never struck me as a take-charge, carry-the-team type of guy." That GM put Manning in the third tier. Another drew comparisons between Manning and the Kurt Warner who became gun-shy at times later in his career.
"Eli can go from a championship quarterback to throwing five interceptions in one game," an offensive coordinator said.
12. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (2.31 average rating)
13. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (2.38 average rating)
14. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2.50 average rating)
15. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (2.56 average rating)
Foles just made the bottom of the second tier, even though three evaluators put him in the fourth tier, including one GM who called him "a four who played like a two" last season.
Another GM boldly placed Foles in the first tier ba
sed on what he saw last season. He kept Foles there upon additional reflection, but his was an outlying view.
Most wanted to see more. We've seen Matt Cassel and other QBs flash for a season or two before fading away. Still, the evaluators most familiar with Foles liked his future. When asked about the Cassel comparison, they thought Foles had a much better arm. But others wondered if part of one season wasn't enough to go on. "Foles could be like a Kerry Collinsor Jake Delhomme, a three who plays like a two or four," one evaluator said.
• Once we had averaged the results for each QB, we rounded the numbers to the nearest tiers -- so that a 2.49 would round to Tier 2 and a 2.50 would round to Tier 3, and so on.
• Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information added one point for every one-tier gap between a QB's average tier level and a voter's ballot. For example: placing Luck in Tier 1 created a 13-point penalty, counting one point for the 11 voters placing him in Tier 2 (one tier removed from his average) and two points for the one person who placed him in the Tier 3 (two tiers removed). Moving Luck into the second tier created a 15-point penalty (14 points for the 14 first-tier votes and one point for the single third-tier vote). This linear penalty system bumped Luck into Tier 1.
Tier's 1 and 2
T-1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (1.04 average rating)
I was deep into this project when ESPN Insider published Sam Monson's piece highlighting Brady's diminished production while under pressure. Monson questioned Brady's status as one of the top five QBs. Still, none of the people I spoke with thought Brady had slipped to a significant degree. Twenty-five of the 26 voters put him in the first tier. The lone exception, a pro personnel evaluator, saved his only Tier 1 vote for Peyton Manning. He was an unusually tough grader at the top, focused more intently than others on the 2013 season, when Manning performed at a historic level.
"Brady did a lot of good things with limited resources, but I saw holes when they put the onus on him to carry it all, as you saw when Denver beat him," this evaluator said. "Brady has to have more of a running game at this stage. He cannot line up with five wides and win it as consistently as before. I still think Brady is a top-five quarterback, but I would not say he is the best right now."
That was a minority opinion. A veteran offensive assistant who listed Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Luck as his Tier 1 QBs said the first three were pretty much interchangeable.
"Brady might be the best because he does it with the least every year, just about," this offensive assistant said. "To me, there is no falloff with that guy. If he played with what Rodgers and Peyton and Brees have played with, it would not even be close. He has not had an outside guy since Randy Moss. These other guys have outside guys coming out of their ears, especially Peyton and Rodgers. It is such a difference when you have outside guys that can stretch, like Manning had in Indy. Then he'd kill you with the inside guys. Brady doesn't have half the skill players that Manning has. The thing that is scary is that sneakily, the Patriots were pretty good last year anyway."
From 2006 through 2012, Brady trailed only Manning in Total QBR at 74.8. That figure fell off to 48.6 through eight games last season as the Patriots lost nearly all their top weapons, but it was back to 73.1 over the final eight games, fourth-best in the league over that span.
T-1. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (1.04 average rating)
Not much explanation required here. All Manning did last season was set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes.
One of the evaluators with a background in pro personnel nearly gave Manning a Tier 2 grade on our first run through the ballot. Then, he started laughing.
"As soon as I said two, I was like, 'Really?' " the evaluator said. "Arm strength is such an issue at this point and the smart teams are going to neutralize him easier than others, but he is a one."
Manning received his only Tier 2 grade from a GM concerned that the QB's age had hampered his ability to avoid the rush. Brady, Brees and Rodgers were the only Tier 1 QBs on this GM's ballot. Exceptions such as these could say more about the voting process than the players. "It's an incredible accomplishment if you can get everyone in the building on the same scale," another GM said.
T-1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1.04 average rating)
If Rodgers gives up anything to Brady and Manning before the snap -- which is debatable -- his athletic ability seems to make up for it.
"You can't fool him," a defensive coordinator said. "We watched some cutups on him and he was ridiculous. He sees everything. They'd have a blitz on and he'd throw it and he knows what the blitz is. I don't know how he knows it. He throws into this tight window that nobody would throw into. Brees is the same way."
A veteran cornerback I talked to this offseason put it this way: "He is very cerebral. I don't think he is quite like a Peyton Manning, but he can read defenses and all that stuff, and when stuff breaks down, he is mobile enough to get out of the pocket and run. That is what made him so good, especially a couple years ago. He is still playing well. He just got hurt last year."
T-1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (1.04 average rating)
Brees' credentials need no explanation. Still, most placed him just behind Brady and Manning within the top tier.
One evaluator said he thought Brees wasn't as good outdoors. But Brady wasn't any better statistically in outdoor road games last season. Among Tier 1 QBs, only Manning (83.0 QBR) and Luck (59.1) were particularly good in outdoor road games.
"The best guys bring everyone else's level up and the guys around them can change and they still play at a high level," an offensive coordinator said. "You saw that comment by Brees talking about Jimmy Graham and he was saying, 'Well, Jimmy is really good, but I've been here for eight years and Jimmy was not here for four of those years and we still had the big numbers.' With these Tier 1 guys, they're productive almost regardless."
One evaluator questioned whether Brees could hang with the other Tier 1 players when his team fell behind by 21 or 28 points. Since 2010, counting the playoffs, Brady is 2-1 and Manning is 1-3 when their teams fall behind by 21-28 points. Their QBR scores were exceptional in those situations (90.9 for Brady and 88.3 for Manning). Rodgers went 0-2 in those games, but played respectably (64.6 QBR). Brees, meanwhile, had an 0-5 record in these games and a 52.6 QBR.
5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (1.50 average rating)
Luck doesn't have the track record of the other Tier 1 QBs, and there was a clear gap in the voting between him and the top four. But people in the league love him almost unconditionally, and 14 of the 26 voters insisted upon putting him in the top tier (each of the top four received 25 of 26 Tier 1 votes).
The evaluators think Luck has carried a subpar roster to a 22-10 record without much help. They see no limitations. They have zero doubt about his long-term stardom and felt strongly enough to give him 14 first-tier votes even while acknowledging he's below the Big Four at this early stage. Every other QB fell into the tier in which he received the most votes, and So shall Luck, even if his Tier 1 designation feels a bit premature.
6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (1.77 average rating)
Quite a few analysts said they would ideally put Rivers and Roethlisberger in the 1.5 range -- better than the typical Tier 2 player, but not as dynamic as the Tier 1 QBs. Eighteen of the 26 voters placed Rivers in the second tier. The same was true for Roethlisberger.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.85 average rating)
One of the offensive coaches placed Rivers and Roethlisberger in the top tier. He noted that Rivers wins with his mind while Roethlisberger wins with his physical abilities. Several GMs said they thought Roethlisberger had declined into the second tier over the past couple seasons. "If you were there in Pittsburgh, you saw him run the no-huddle, you saw the command, you saw him run and make plays," a coordinator said. "Other people will not think as much of him. He is a very good quarterback, able to get himself out of tough positions."
T-8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (2.23 average rating)
I was surprised to see Ryan command zero Tier 1 votes and six Tier 3 votes. Nearly everyone said Ryan needed to prove himself in the playoffs. There was a feeling Ryan would never be able to carry his team the way the very best QBs have.
A few evaluators questioned whether Romo had the mind-set to play at the highest level consistently. It's a familiar refrain in league circles, a feeling that Romo is an undisciplined QB playing for an undisciplined organization with a poorly constructed roster.
"People want to knock him," one GM responded, "but the guy has talent and is one of the top 10 starters in the league."
Romo is 34 years old and coming off back surgery, but he still could be in line for a "monster" season, one evaluator said. "But I absolutely believe they will not win big with him. As soon as he decides it's a clutch moment, his brain goes elsewhere. He loses focus and tries to create something."
T-8. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (2.23 average rating)
T-8. Eli Manning, New York Giants (2.23 average rating)
Quite a few voters paused and feigned anguish when asked to make sense of Manning following a brutal 2013 season. Seventeen of them placed Manning in the second tier.
"He is really a two when you supply him with the right weapons," a head coach said. "He is a guy that has the ultimate trust in a big wide receiver."
Some thought Manning would benefit from a scheme change this offseason, but most of the voters placing him in the second tier sounded a little apprehensive. "I see Eli having a hard time generating things on his own," one GM said. "I don't see a great decision-maker. He has never struck me as a take-charge, carry-the-team type of guy." That GM put Manning in the third tier. Another drew comparisons between Manning and the Kurt Warner who became gun-shy at times later in his career.
"Eli can go from a championship quarterback to throwing five interceptions in one game," an offensive coordinator said.
12. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (2.31 average rating)
13. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (2.38 average rating)
14. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2.50 average rating)
15. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (2.56 average rating)
Foles just made the bottom of the second tier, even though three evaluators put him in the fourth tier, including one GM who called him "a four who played like a two" last season.
Another GM boldly placed Foles in the first tier ba
sed on what he saw last season. He kept Foles there upon additional reflection, but his was an outlying view.
Most wanted to see more. We've seen Matt Cassel and other QBs flash for a season or two before fading away. Still, the evaluators most familiar with Foles liked his future. When asked about the Cassel comparison, they thought Foles had a much better arm. But others wondered if part of one season wasn't enough to go on. "Foles could be like a Kerry Collinsor Jake Delhomme, a three who plays like a two or four," one evaluator said.
