Originally posted by jterrell
lol fair enough for sure.
pinned down my theory would be something like...
1. QB is the biggest hit and miss proposition of any position.
2. QB is the most overpaid and overvalued position.
3. QBs on good teams are almost universally overrated.
4. QBs on bad teams are often though not universally underrated.
5. LT, CB, Pass Rusher are all more important than QB as those players play on an island of sorts whereas offenses can be geared toward a QBs strengths and made to hide a QBs weaknesses.
6. The teams with the worst record in the NFL are generally the ones who swing and miss with high selections at QB. See Lions, Chargers after Leaf, Browns et al.
7. Experience is a huge factor in QB success and knowing a guys limitations and strengths are a big advantage. See recent Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kerry Collins, Rich Gannon SB appearances.
McNabb and Culpepper have been the success stories of a storied QB class yet BOTH missed the playoffs this year. That is at a time regarded as being in their prime. Yet Kyle Orton MADE the playoffs.
Manning, McNair, McNabb, Vick and Culpepper have all been considered NFL MVP candidates in the past few seasons yet this year only 1 made the playoffs and they had 0 playoff wins amongst this elite group that would have been in the top 5 of QBs by most folks at some point in the past 3 seasons.
It becomes a huge crap shoot in guessing at a guy's actual comparison because circumstances are so different. For instance there are many, many moans about not signing Jake Delhomme. But Dallas doesnt have Steve Smith or Jordan Gross or Muhsin Muhammed or Stephen Davis.... I'd rather trade Tucker for Gross than Bledsoe for Delhomme thats for dang sure. Same with Steve Smith for Key or Terry Glenn.
When the Houston Texans drafted David Carr I thought they were crazy.
The team needed everything and didn't have the cushy bazallion draft picks like Carolina/Jax did. I thought they should have traded down and added more proven vets. Any backup QB wanting a starting job would have delivered them at least as much as success as they have seen under Carr.
At QB I want a football player. A guy his teammates respect and follow because he talks the talk and walks the walk. He expects to win games on his own if need be but is sensible enough to follow gameplans until that crucial instant. I'd prefer a guy who can get you short yardage on his own. Especially if you spread out the defense in a passing formations. Why pass on 3rd and 3 when your QB can run right up the middle? He doesn't need to make pretty passes all the time or throw the ball through brick walls. Guys like this are underrated IMHO as opposed to the Boller, Vick type with cannons or the Eli Manning type with famous name. I am championning Vince young as this type opf player and would gladly make a trade for him but ONLY with parts I deemed expendable like Ellie, Glover, Romo or Henson. Note Not meant as a shot at Romo/Henson but Young would be the heir apparent so no need to keep 2 on the bench.
JT, kind of forgot about this thread until reappeared today.
But here goes my response:
1. QB is the biggest hit and miss proposition of any position.
Not sure if this true or not without researching it. I did a brief glance at WRs, and it looks like those guys fail at a pretty good rate as well. Regardless, I would not doubt if this were true though. I also believe QB is the most difficult position to play in football if not any position in the the three major sports.
2. QB is the most overpaid and overvalued position.
If #1 is true, then I do not think #2 is true. If they are harder to find, it would only make sense that they are paid more IMO. As to the overvalued part, that is central to the entire debate so I guess my entire thread will be devoted to value of QBs.
3. QBs on good teams are almost universally overrated.
I tend to agree with that. I would only say that just because a QB is on a good team does not mean that the QB is not good and and just reaping the benefits of playing on a good team.
4. QBs on bad teams are often though not universally underrated.
Of course, good QBs on bad teams will look worse than they are and bad QBs on good teams will look better than they are. Obviously #3 in reverse. I guess I agree again, but I will say that I do not believe QBs are interchangeable. Some are QBs are bad and we know it.
5. LT, CB, Pass Rusher are all more important than QB as those players play on an island of sorts whereas offenses can be geared toward a QBs strengths and made to hide a QBs weaknesses.
I personally dont think there is a bigger island than that of the QB. Sure you can scheme an offense towards weaknesses and strengths for the QB, but the same goes for any player. How much help did Petitti get this year? Unless you dink and dunk 5-8 yard passes all day, when it is time to make a throw no one else on the team can help you. A OT has a TE and RB or FB that can help out on pass protection when the OT is having a difficult time. A CB can get help from the safeties or even linebackers for the short underneath stuff. I know those positions are difficult to play and getting help is not always an option or ideal for that matter. No one can help you throw a pass though.
6. The teams with the worst record in the NFL are generally the ones who swing and miss with high selections at QB. See Lions, Chargers after Leaf, Browns et al.
This is true. That goes for everyother position as well. Arizona has been doing a lot of swinging and missing just as most perennial losers do. We all know about Harrington, Leaf and Couch. Don't foreget about, Charles Rodgers, Gerrard Warren, or Courtney Brown. San Diego has bounced back nicely from the Ryan Leaf fiasco, but would San Diego been any better today if they had passed on Ryan Leaf and taken the next guy picked after Ryan Leaf? The next guy taken was Andre Wadsworth. I would venture to say Wadsworth would have been the guy taken had they not selected Leaf.
7. Experience is a huge factor in QB success and knowing a guys limitations and strengths are a big advantage. See recent Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kerry Collins, Rich Gannon SB appearances.
I agree with that. Experience is invaluable when it comes to QBs. Holmgren said it takes a QB five years in his system before he a QB is truly comfortable. Also another reason why I am not generally in favor of bringing in 33 year old QBs. Talent without experience can be overcome, although very rarely (Dan Marino, Ben R). Experience without talent pretty much can never be overcome (Koy Detmer, Tommy Maddox, Mike McMahon, Anthony Wright).
McNabb and Culpepper have been the success stories of a storied QB class yet BOTH missed the playoffs this year. That is at a time regarded as being in their prime. Yet Kyle Orton MADE the playoffs.
I will be honest with you, I dont understand the relevance of this statement. Daunte Culpepper only got seriously injured in his seventh game this year. Granted his record as a starter through the first six games was 2-4. Donovan McNabb only played in nine games this year. Regardless, I would never allege that just because you have a great QB you are guaranteed to play in the post season every year.
Manning, McNair, McNabb, Vick and Culpepper have all been considered NFL MVP candidates in the past few seasons yet this year only 1 made the playoffs and they had 0 playoff wins amongst this elite group that would have been in the top 5 of QBs by most folks at some point in the past 3 seasons.
NOTE: I am only using the years in which that player was considered the new starter. I am counting years in which they were injured most of the year, but I am not counting rookie years if they did not play or played minimally.
McNabb - Primary Starter 6 years - 5 Playoff Appearances - 1 Superbowl, 4 NFC Championship games.
PHILLY - 6 Years before McNabb - 2 Playoff Appearances - 0 Superbowls, 0 NFC Championship games. ADVANTAGE: WITH MCNABB
Culpepper - Primary Starter 6 years - 2 Playoff Appearances - 0 Superbowls, 1 NFC Championship game.
MINN - 6 Years before Culpepper - 5 Playoff Appearances - 0 Superbowls, 1 NFC Championship game. ADVANTAGE: WITHOUT CULPEPPER
Vick - Primary Starter 4 years - 2 Playoff Appearances - 0 Superbowls, 1 NFC Championship game.
ATL - 4 Years before Vick - 1 Playoff Appearance - 1 Superbowl, 1 NFC Championship game. ADVANTAGE: WITHOUT VICK
Manning - Primary Starter 8 Years - 6 Playoff Appearances - 0 Superbowls, 1 AFC Championship game.
INDY - 8 Years bofore Manning - 2 Playoff Apearances - 0 Superbowls, 1 AFC Championship game. ADVANTAGE: WITH MANNING
Favre - Primary Starter 14 years - 10 Playoff Appearances - 2 Superbowls, 3 NFC Championship games.
GB - 14 Years before Favre - 1 Playoff Appearance - 0 Superbowls, 0 NFC Championship games. ADVANTAGE: WITH FAVRE
Personally I dont consider Vick to be a good QB at this point, but I considered him in the equation anyway since you mentioned him by name. Either way the advantage goes to the franchise QBs.
It becomes a huge crap shoot in guessing at a guy's actual comparison because circumstances are so different. For instance there are many, many moans about not signing Jake Delhomme. But Dallas doesnt have Steve Smith or Jordan Gross or Muhsin Muhammed or Stephen Davis.... I'd rather trade Tucker for Gross than Bledsoe for Delhomme thats for dang sure. Same with Steve Smith for Key or Terry Glenn.
I agree with this as well. I will say you probably did not hear me moaning for Jake Delhomme.
When the Houston Texans drafted David Carr I thought they were crazy.
The team needed everything and didn't have the cushy bazallion draft picks like Carolina/Jax did. I thought they should have traded down and added more proven vets. Any backup QB wanting a starting job would have delivered them at least as much as success as they have seen under Carr.
That is debatable. The answer to this will not be known for sure for probably another 2-3 years.
At QB I want a football player. A guy his teammates respect and follow because he talks the talk and walks the walk. He expects to win games on his own if need be but is sensible enough to follow gameplans until that crucial instant. I'd prefer a guy who can get you short yardage on his own. Especially if you spread out the defense in a passing formations. Why pass on 3rd and 3 when your QB can run right up the middle? He doesn't need to make pretty passes all the time or throw the ball through brick walls. Guys like this are underrated IMHO as opposed to the Boller, Vick type with cannons or the Eli Manning type with famous name. I am championning Vince young as this type opf player and would gladly make a trade for him but ONLY with parts I deemed expendable like Ellie, Glover, Romo or Henson. Note Not meant as a shot at Romo/Henson but Young would be the heir apparent so no need to keep 2 on the bench.
Not sure I disagree with anything in the statement above. The only thing that strikes at as strange is Bledsoe is a famous name with a cannon arm.
