You people serious think the front office is going to spend those types of dollars?
They have the money.
Actually they have plenty of it.
It is just Stephen the bean counter is now too busy skimming off the top - about 10% - 15% of it.
And he calls it value but what he really means is I am hiding the profits in the cap structure.
They play fans with the overprice argument because of course millions of dollars is a lot for 99.99% of us.
Of course they need to do that.
Otherwise fans would be pissed if they see huge amounts of cap unused.
You dont believe there is huge amount of cap space.
Well it is simple if anyone bother to put it on a spreadsheet.
By systematically turning off the restructuring, you can hide about 50 million profits from the fans.
The team has been restructuring about 20-30 million dollars per year, and changing that system can hide lots of $.
In fact, they can make their cap space look tight with this mirage in 2018,
in 2019, the savings are so huge (67million) that 32 million still shows.
in 2020, the savings are even large (92 million) that 47 million still shows.
how to hide that, they can change the standard contracting structure - essentially front loading contracts.
the drop in profits in 2021 is from the massive contracts given to resigning the class of 2016 - takes an extra year or 2 for massive cap hit to show up. actually after 2020, the model is not even relevant as there will be a new TV contract.
With the traditional 20 million of restructuring:
2017----- 2018----- 2019----- 2020----- 2021
$ 3.20---$ 28.66---$ 67.91--$ 92.72---$ 72.23
To hide the profits from the fans, with 20 million of restructuring turned off:
2017----- 2018----- 2019----- 2020----- 2021
$ 3.20---$ 8.66-----$ 32.91---$ 47.72--$ 22.23
These calculations have assumed:
1. continue to sign 3 free agents per year - 1 at 2m aav, 1 at 3m aav, 1 at 4m aav
2. resigning own free agents - martin, collins, jones and most of the class of 2016 as good starters or stars, resigning class of 2017 as decent starters (assuming draft results are not as good)
For those who want to question the financial model, I would be happy to email the model to you.
A more detailed report of the model will be posted on BTB.