How much does luck play into football success?

[jazzcat22]

I'm not saying it's all luck, as there is much more to it than that. We all know that. but times, one just needs to be lucky.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Football is a game of inches, as in many sports. That odd shaped ball can produces some starange, and at times lucky / unlucky bounces.

Why does a fumbled ball take a weird bounce, lay on the sideline for a player to recover, but yet other times, it takes a strange bounce away from a player to go out of bounds. Or even for another player on the opposing team to recover....that is luck, no skill, no draft, no GM is going to change that.

Just seems it doesn't go out way as much as we want it too. But it may change, we may get that bounce this Sunday.
Jimmy johnson said, as well as many other coaches, he believes there are about 6 plays that determine the shape and outcome of a game. you just need to be there and be lucky at times to make one of those plays.

Or, that is chaos theory.

And luck is just another word for nothing left to lose, nothing, honey nothing if you ain't lucky....my apologies to both Janice Joplin, Kris Kristofferson and Fred Foster.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Football is a game of inches, as in many sports. That odd shaped ball can produces some starange, and at times lucky / unlucky bounces.

Why does a fumbled ball take a weird bounce, lay on the sideline for a player to recover, but yet other times, it takes a strange bounce away from a player to go out of bounds. Or even for another player on the opposing team to recover....that is luck, no skill, no draft, no GM is going to change that.

Just seems it doesn't go out way as much as we want it too. But it may change, we may get that bounce this Sunday.
Jimmy johnson said, as well as many other coaches, he believes there are about 6 plays that determine the shape and outcome of a game. you just need to be there and be lucky at times to make one of those plays.

Jimmy was so enraged at the idea of luck, he forbid that word to be used around his team. Thus Jerry Jones started using the word serendipity. He even said so on th3e local Dallas radio once during the 93 run.

 

[CCBoy]

Or, that is chaos theory.

And luck is just another word for nothing left to lose, nothing, honey nothing if you ain't lucky....my apologies to both Janice Joplin, Kris Kristofferson and Fred Foster.

A good trio there, TwoDeep.

 

[links18]

Madden used to always say he'd "rather be lucky than good," if that means anything.


I know, I know.....this ain't Madden.

 

[TwoDeep3]

I think of Texas Hold 'em and the card on the river which bails out a poor hand and beats the other guy.

Some call these bad beats because there was one or a few cards in the deck which would save the one player and doom the other.

But I hold off on that idea of it being a bad beat because as long as the card is somewhere in the deck, it has a potential to be the next card. Odds figure it is a long shot, but it still has poetential.

I don't see that as luck. I know the ball is pointy and thus understand it will bounce in ways of undetermined possibilities.

But the randomness of its bounce is not governed by some mythical entity which guides it in favor of one side or the other.

 

[CCBoy]

I think of Texas Hold 'em and the card on the river which bails out a poor hand and beats the other guy.

Some call these bad beats because there was one or a few cards in the deck which would save the one player and doom the other.

But I hold off on that idea of it being a bad beat because as long as the card is somewhere in the deck, it has a potential to be the next card. Odds figure it is a long shot, but it still has poetential.

I don't see that as luck. I know the ball is pointy and thus understand it will bounce in ways of undetermined possibilities.

But the randomness of its bounce is not governed by some mythical entity which guides it in favor of one side or the other.

This is true, but someone deeply superstitious would be shaking in the boots.

 

[visionary]

How much does luck factor in?

Within a play or a quarter or even a game probably more but over the course of the whole season and the playoffs luck is not usually the major determining factor, talent and preparation and discipline and desire take precedence

If you are a fan of the current cowboys or browns or jaguars or bills or bengals: 90%

If you are a fan of the current Seahawks, broncos, Pats or the 90's cowboys: 10%

 

[sureletsrace]

I don't think luck is the right word.

I think chaotic randomness is more fitting.

 

[Idgit]

"The harder I work, the luckier I get."

 

[xwalker]

Andrew has been and will continue to be play a huge part in any success the Colts may have going forward..

You beat me to that punchline.

 

[xwalker]

I'm just going back and looking at past drafts.

2011 - Texans get one of the greatest defensive players of all-time at the #11 pick.
2011 - Cardinals get a lockdown corner at the #5 pick.
2012 - Cowboys get Morris Claiborne at the #6 pick.

How much of this is just bad luck?

The Cowboys were going to draft LB James Francis instead of Emmitt, but Francis was already off the board. If that's not luck, then I don't know what is.

 

[SHAMSzy]

Actually they really haven't. Brady has made up for a lot of bad decisions and draft busts of that franchise. The Hoodie has looked pretty mortal and fallible as of late. They are "lucky" in the sense that Tom Brady has been healthy for most of his career.

My point is luck isn't a factor there - they have sustained excellence.

 

[Alexander]

Like what teams? The pats who haven't drafted well? The steelers who haven't been able to fix their O-line for years? Or the Seahawks? Well they were bad for years before finally hitting on a series of late round picks.

People have short memories.

I will give you the Steelers, however, they were excellent at drafting when Cowher was in the mix. The Patriots have high profile misses, but they always never seem to suffer. As for Seattle, the teams that hit on late draft picks? That shows an excellent identification process, since people like you dismiss those choices as dice rolls.

 

[visionary]

The Cowboys were going to draft LB James Francis instead of Emmitt, but Francis was already off the board. If that's not luck, then I don't know what is.

Taking Mo Claiborne on a whim was not bad luck, it was bad management

 

[big dog cowboy]

of course luck plays a part. i mean look at Eli Manning Forrest Gumping his way to 2-SBs.

 

[xwalker]

Taking Mo Claiborne on a whim was not bad luck, it was bad management

Positive: He was universally regarded by draft analysts as the top CB and was regarded by most as the top defender in that draft. His college coach was a previous Cowboys assistant who you would have expected them to consult.

Negative: He scored a 7 on the Wonderlic and they didn't interview him prior to the draft.

I can't say for certain that it was bad management or bad luck. There are arguments for both points of view. It's not like drafting Shante Carver where Larry Lacewell was the only person on the planet that thought Carver was a 1st round pick and that includes Carver himself.

 

[DiResta]

theres no such thing as luck. you have good fortune and bad fortune and something always determines it.

 

[Zekeats]

No, you should have just quit...and well before stating you guess.

Stacking insult just doesn't do much beyond stink...

Take issues and define roles and relationships, not slamming character that is not even yours.

Pick up topic and put your efforts there. I don't abuse alcohol, and you are no judge of Jerry.

Actually the truth is you are here on a message board buddy, by your own choice. This is where people have and share their opinions and there judgements. My opinion/judgement is that I see Jerry Jones as a drunk. You could cry all you want but that is still how I JUDGE Jerry and thats that.

 

[CCBoy]

Actually the truth is you are here on a message board buddy, by your own choice. This is where people have and share their opinions and there judgements. My opinion/judgement is that I see Jerry Jones as a drunk. You could cry all you want but that is still how I JUDGE Jerry and thats that.

Don't play around in your manner of self proclamation. All you attempted to do was argue and slander by insult.

Run on back into the streets and get run over...and if you feel intimidated by what I wrote, that is just arriving at a wilting lilly state.

OH, and don't forget to take that trash mouth with you...you are done as far as a conversation with myself. Toodles.