How Special is Ezekiel?

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Screw stats. Watch games. He’s the best running back. Durable, consistent, short yard, long runs, blocking, whatever you want.

Agree, BUT someone probably already have the guy in NY as being better and he could not block my 3 year daughter coming after Eli. It's like the ES and BS comparison, ES could do it all but on 3rd downs BS was on the sidelines but some still said BS was better. Yes he was on DSPN alot junking people but that does not make you a better back.

 

[Zekeats]

Please don't label him, he may not be to bright but please don't label him.

 

[G2]

What makes Zeke elite? Outside of total yards what can we point to?

That's the point. We bestow these labels and never change them.

Is he elite because he was the 4rh pick? Because he gets a ton of carries?

Honestly that's all you can point to at this point. If we traded him to a bad team with a bad line would we still think of him the same?

What proof can you offer?

You need to factor everything in, not excluding major contributions such as yardage. That makes no sense. That's the number one job, gaining yardage.
Besides that, there are other things that make Elliott an elite RB.

 

[JohnsKey19]

Barkley is #1. You won't find more than 10% of NFL GMs to disagree. Zeke, Gurley and Bell are a slight notch below. IMO Kamara is right behind that group.

 

[aria]

Then by your standard Emmitt would’ve been a JAG too

No, no...not at all. Where did I ever say Zeke was a JAG. You and @Beast_from_East (who never did find the quote he accused me of saying) like to make assumptions and accuse others of saying things they never said to try and prove a point. That’s one of my biggest pet peeves and has been worthy of being put on ignore if it continues.

Show me where I said anything about Zeke being a JAG or shut your mouth because I’ll show you plenty where I said is a top 3 RB, may have said top 5 once or twice, but the burden is on you since your the false accuser. I’ll be waiting.

 

[TWOK11]

The fundamental flaw with all of these arguments is the idea that you can extrapolate the efficiency of niche backs out to the volume of touches Zeke sees.

Emmitt Smith wasn’t special because he was so much more talented than any other back football. Yes, he had very good NFL talent. What made him unique however was his ability to maintain both his health and elite level of play through games, seasons and ultimately an entire decade.

Zeke is unique for similar reasons. He can see 30+ touches in a game and 400+ touches in a season while remaining healthy and not slowing down. There just aren’t many guys who can do that, let alone guys who actually have elite level talent. And this isn’t even diving into the fact that he’s the most well rounded back in the game when you add in his receiving and blocking abilities.

 

[TWOK11]

Run percentage against a stacked box:
2016: 12th
2017: 18th
2018: 20th

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#yards

Your own opinion? Yes. Your own facts? No.




What you should take away from this is that we gave Zeke the ball a lot and he wasn't efficient. So maybe we don't need to pay double what the league is paying RBs?

You want Zeke getting more opportunities if you're paying him more than you are others. That part of the equation makes sense. You would also expect him to do more with it....because you are paying him more than you are others. Got to have it both ways.

We’re not paying Zeke to be the most efficient back in the league every time he touches the ball. We’re paying him to be a great back who is ALWAYS available and ALWAYS productive no matter how much he gets the ball.

When he’s had 34 touches already and it’s 4th and 1 with two minutes left and the game on the line in the last game of the year, I want to know I can give him the ball and get that yard. He won’t be too tired or too dinged up. He’ll get that yard just as assuredly as he did the first quarter of week one.

There’s not more than 2-3 guys in the league who you can confidently feel that way about. We have one, and we need to pay up to keep him.

 

[TWOK11]

Cognitive dissonance is strong and typical behavioral responses are running rampant.

Nobody disputes the analysis. It. Just. Doesn't. Matter. Because. Reasons.

Zeke doesn't forced missed tackles? SO WHAT
Zeke doesn't break long runs? SO WHAT
Zeke fumbles more than any other RB? SO WHAT
Zeke wasn't efficient as a ball catcher? SO WHAT
Zeke wasn't special/efficient in the red zone, 4th quarter or open field in short yardage situations? SO WHAT
Dak would benefit from play action with or without Zeke? SO WHAT
Despite all this Zeke would cause us to spend twice the league average at RB? SO WHAT

Yikes. Could not be me.

I always assumed Zeke was in the conversation for best back in football. However, when my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, Zone?

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’ve never argued Zeke was an elite back for any of the reasons you listed. I’ve said he’s an elite back because he has an incredibly well rounded game that he maintains from carry to carry, game to game and season to season without wearing down or getting injured.

So much of his contribution goes unnoticed or is taken for granted. For instance, he’s the highest rated blocker among running backs in the NFL in the last 15 years. In three seasons his blitz pickup rate is nearly 95%, meaning he misses his assignment leading to a hurry, hit or sack on the QB only 1/20 times. That’s EXTRAORDINARY and a huge part of the modern game.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Do you know what you are saying? Make your argument without stats you found that does not, in totality, rate Zeke. Someone else can use the same stats with different algorithms, and come up with different results. One thing I don't understand is, why are stats that naysayers use factual; while a supporter's stats are not justified? Before his holdout, none of these analystic gurus could be found.

What supporter stats?

Different algorithms?

Lol

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You make this so easy. Bad play calling, is attributed to the RB? Find stats that don't support those that you are arguing against.

No. The point is... To further reiterate... Zeke's "improvement" in the pass game was more smoke than mirrors. You can blame the Cowboys play calling but do we also then blame Ohio State's play calling where Zeke was also not a factor in the passing game?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

When he’s had 34 touches already and it’s 4th and 1 with two minutes left and the game on the line in the last game of the year, I want to know I can give him the ball and get that yard. He won’t be too tired or too dinged up. He’ll get that yard just as assuredly as he did the first quarter of week one.

Except the data I provided shows that Zeke's situational running in short yardage opportunities like this has him coming up short.

That's literally one of the data sets I presented. And you ignore it and still say this stuff?

Why do facts no longer matter in this world?

 

[TWOK11]

Except the data I provided shows that Zeke's situational running in short yardage opportunities like this has him coming up short.

That's literally one of the data sets I presented. And you ignore it and still say this stuff?

Why do facts no longer matter in this world?

Zeke had THREE TIMES as many runs in such scenarios as the next closest back in the league last, and FIVE TIMES as many as the average NFL starting RB since 2016.

Most of the stats you posted are effectively pointless in the context of this discussion as the numbers for almost every other back in the league lack the statistical power to be compared to Zeke’s numbers. There is no statistical significance to these comparisons. It’s the equivalent of comparing two case control studies where one studies 50 participants and the other studies 300 participants. If the group of 50 provides wildly different data than the group of 300, what does that tell you? Essentially nothing, and the superior power of the larger population makes the study of 300 the only one worth discussing.

You’re doing that exact same thing you accuse others of, taking data at face value. It’s nonsensical to compare situational statistics between backs with such different volume of data points.

 

[mattjames2010]

Zeke had THREE TIMES as many runs in such scenarios as the next closest back in the league last, and FIVE TIMES as many as the average NFL starting RB since 2016.

Most of the stats you posted are effectively pointless in the context of this discussion as the numbers for almost every other back in the league lack the statistical power to be compared to Zeke’s numbers. There is no statistical significance to these comparisons. It’s the equivalent of comparing two case control studies where one studies 50 participants and the other studies 300 participants. If the group of 50 provides wildly different data than the group of 300, what does that tell you? Essentially nothing, and the superior power of the larger population makes the study of 300 the only one worth discussing.

You’re doing that exact same thing you accuse others of, taking data at face value. It’s nonsensical to compare situational statistics between backs with such different volume of data points.

You still haven’t provided any data to support your argument. Sorry, but you folks need to do better.

OP still has you beat. You’re about to go to “Watch the tape”.

 

[TWOK11]

You still haven’t provided any data to support your argument. Sorry, but you folks need to do better.

OP still has you beat. You’re about to go to “Watch the tape”.

I’m offering fundamental principles of statistical analysis. This isn’t a debate about Zeke at this point, it’s about the merits of various methods of data analysis.

Tape has nothing to with it, the OP simply thinks he can draw valid conclusions from data sets that have no business being compared.

 

[mattjames2010]

I’m offering fundamental principles of statistical analysis. This isn’t a debate about Zeke at this point, it’s about the merits of various methods of data analysis.

Tape has nothing to with it, the OP simply thinks he can draw valid conclusions from data sets that have no business being compared.

No, you’re making claims Zeke does things - and these things make Zeke valuable and elite

You have no provided what these are, and the one thing you did claim, you haven’t exactly post the data nor shown how it compares to other QBs.

As I said, it’s a long-winded way of saying “watch the tape” otherwise you would have posted data - all stats posted about Zeke are relevant to counter the claim he’s invaluable. It’s now your job to prove he’s a cut above the rest.

Others have tried this already. No need to waste time.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Zeke had THREE TIMES as many runs in such scenarios as the next closest back in the league last, and FIVE TIMES as many as the average NFL starting RB since 2016.

Most of the stats you posted are effectively pointless in the context of this discussion as the numbers for almost every other back in the league lack the statistical power to be compared to Zeke’s numbers. There is no statistical significance to these comparisons. It’s the equivalent of comparing two case control studies where one studies 50 participants and the other studies 300 participants. If the group of 50 provides wildly different data than the group of 300, what does that tell you? Essentially nothing, and the superior power of the larger population makes the study of 300 the only one worth discussing.

You’re doing that exact same thing you accuse others of, taking data at face value. It’s nonsensical to compare situational statistics between backs with such different volume of data points.

Yes he had more runs and he wasn't efficient with them. How is that a good thing? The argument that you can give it to him in the 4th even after a huge workload and know he is going to get that yard for you isn't supported by facts.

In fact the analysis shows perhaps we should give him less carries in that scenario, not more. End of day we've made Zeke a top paid RB since the day he walked into the league. And now he wants the biggest deal ever. Shouldn't we expect he take huge volume and have huge efficiency? Why would we not demand this?

Also please see my last point of the OP. I specifically talk about RBs who have very little volume and the claims you should and shouldn't make about them.

 

[beware_d-ware]

No, you’re making claims Zeke does things - and these things make Zeke valuable and elite

You have no provided what these are, and the one thing you did claim, you haven’t exactly post the data nor shown how it compares to other QBs.

As I said, it’s a long-winded way of saying “watch the tape” otherwise you would have posted data - all stats posted about Zeke are relevant to counter the claim he’s invaluable. It’s now your job to prove he’s a cut above the rest.

Others have tried this already. No need to waste time.

He is talking data. You either don't understand freshman level statistics or you're being deliberately obtuse in order to win an internet argument.

Look up the Law of Large Numbers. This is graph of dice rolls vs running back carries, but you can see how comparing a back with say 10 short yardage carries vs one with 200 short yardage carries, or a back with 50 short yardage carries vs one with 200 short yardage carries is problematic.

Zeke's volume puts him in a league apart from any back you want to compare him to. As far as short yardage carries go, he is three times farther down that tail than any RB you want to compare him to. Of course his average rate of success will be lower than some of the fluky guys on the left end. It's also far more stable.

 

[Kaiser]

What makes Zeke elite?

He has an elite ability to avoid filling up 20 page threads with butthurt cherry picked stats like "breakaway percentage".

 

[aria]

I hope you guys don’t jinx the Ewok with an injury. I really don’t buy all this “he doesn’t get injured, therefore he won’t get injured”. It’s a small possibility he may go his entire career without being injured but as much as they give him the ball, the odds are he will be injured. All it takes is one time, one bad fall, one hit, one freak accident and he’s done for awhile at least. Other than his ego, there’s a reason he’s holding out.

IMO, it’s just a matter of time until most RB’s get hurt no matter how hard they train or how tough they seem. The more you give them the ball, the more the chances go up. Zeke has been lucky so far and a lot of that has to do with the O line he’s had since college.

 

[Kaiser]

That is correct, it's inaccurate.

We're talking about career length, not years in the top 10. AP, McCoy, Gore, Lynch, Ingram,

Its not inaccurate, you said "good starting RBs have careers of 8-10 years". You listed four good examples there out of the last ten years of starting RBs.

And you can't list Mark Ingram in a discussion of a top RB like Zeke. He has been in the league 8 years, sure. But he has only started 64 games over those 8 years and never made 16 starts in a season ever.