How Special is Ezekiel?

[AsthmaField]

Just about every player, coach, announcer, publication and fan says that Elliott is an exceptional RB. He is routinely listed as one of the top backs in the game and is a force on the field every time he plays.

They know how great he is. To football people, it is clear as day.

As for myself, as a long time fan of the sport and as a guy who played the game, it’s easy to see that Elliott’s exceptional ability changes the game when he lines up behind the QB. His toughness and his physical nature wears a defense out by the second half. In a sport where toughness, heart and courage are a huge part of the game, there in no stat, that can measure what he means to his team. No conventional stat, nor a newly devised one, can tell you how beaten up a Safety is in the 4th quarter after dealing with Ezekiel for three quarters.

Jimmy Johnson said that people shouldn’t think that just because a guy is a pro football player, he likes the contact. He said there are plenty of guys who shy away from the physical stuff. He said some don’t mind the contact, some love it, and some hate it. The few guys, Jimmy said, who love the contact are the guys you want on your team. Elliott loves the contact. It shows. And a lot of the guys who have to tackle him, don’t. He wears on those guys, and it shapes games.

That difference in toughness and how it changes the game can’t be measured... but it is there.

The importance a defense puts on stopping Zeke. How much the defenders work to limit him while paying less attention to other players in the passing game. How much a defender starts shying away from the constant bludgeoning he’s receiving at the hands of Elliott and how that effects his ability to be ready for the sharp cuts Zeke makes in the secondary... these are things that aren’t measured by any stat. But they are things that effect the game and effect the outcome of the game to a large degree.

Elliott is a huge influence on the game and his value certainly can’t be measured by any numbers.

 

[Kaiser]

Drawing a conclusion without all of the facts is valid based on the facts presented, however, without all the facts your conclusion could be completely wrong!

I just looked out the window and the Sun was in the East.

So its a fact, the Sun doesn't move and never varies from a spot East of me.

You can't argue with facts, Zeke-lover!!

 

[G2]

LOL you don’t watch other teams play then.

Every team uses more than one RB, so the phrase is way overused. I want a complete RB that does everything and plays 3 downs. Not splitting carries. That may work for a pass heavy team.

 

[cern]

love the guy. but signing him will be problematic, at least for this year. he's trying to get a guaranteed deal before the anticipated work stoppage that will likely happen with the next cba negotiations. same for dak and cooper. we're not the only team that will be affected by these negotiating tactics.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I should have known your self-own was listed somewhere in the Unabomber Manifesto already.

You listed three guys "above" Zeke in a made up stat who had 5 carries, 7 and 7 respectively. There were only four with a statistically significant number of carries rated above Zeke - Kamara, Gurley, AD and Gus Edwards. None of those four were playing behind a patchwork OL with Linehan calling the plays.

So I looked, and its more ax-grinding using made up stats. Shocker.

Please stop using words like statistically significant before you sprain something.

Now please go back to the original post. Where I was suggesting you go back and reread you missed it. Because in said section no running back names other than Zeke's is referenced. It's the last pretty picture of the post!

 

[Kaiser]

Please stop using words like statistically significant before you sprain something.

Have you stopped to think that in a 20 page thread, there are only one or two troll posts that agree with you and everyone else thinks you are an idiot?

Its time to do exactly that.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Just about every player, coach, announcer, publication and fan says that Elliott is an exceptional RB. He is routinely listed as one of the top backs in the game and is a force on the field every time he plays.

They know how great he is. To football people, it is clear as day.

As for myself, as a long time fan of the sport and as a guy who played the game, it’s easy to see that Elliott’s exceptional ability changes the game when he lines up behind the QB. His toughness and his physical nature wears a defense out by the second half. In a sport where toughness, heart and courage are a huge part of the game, there in no stat, that can measure what he means to his team. No conventional stat, nor a newly devised one, can tell you how beaten up a Safety is in the 4th quarter after dealing with Ezekiel for three quarters.

Jimmy Johnson said that people shouldn’t think that just because a guy is a pro football player, he likes the contact. He said there are plenty of guys who shy away from the physical stuff. He said some don’t mind the contact, some love it, and some hate it. The few guys, Jimmy said, who love the contact are the guys you want on your team. Elliott loves the contact. It shows. And a lot of the guys who have to tackle him, don’t. He wears on those guys, and it shapes games.

That difference in toughness and how it changes the game can’t be measured... but it is there.

The importance a defense puts on stopping Zeke. How much the defenders work to limit him while paying less attention to other players in the passing game. How much a defender starts shying away from the constant bludgeoning he’s receiving at the hands of Elliott and how that effects his ability to be ready for the sharp cuts Zeke makes in the secondary... these are things that aren’t measured by any stat. But they are things that effect the game and effect the outcome of the game to a large degree.

Elliott is a huge influence on the game and his value certainly can’t be measured by any numbers.

How often in a game do you think a safety actually goes one on one against Zeke.

These tired tropes make no sense.

If Zeke is as special as we think he is he'd make more people miss. He'd break longer runs. He'd gain more yards on routes run. He'd be more efficient in the redzone and in short yardage situations.

Other consensus top running backs...the names every "player, coach, announcer, publication and fan" consider to be exceptional show up in these metrics. But for whatever reason we are to believe only Zeke is not adequately described by the totality of this analysis.

That's kind of hard to wrap one's head around you admit no?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Have you stopped to think that in a 20 page thread, there are only one or two troll posts that agree with you and everyone else thinks you are an idiot?

Its time to do exactly that.

In a 20 page thread I haven't seen anyone offer a serious rebuttal other than "eye test."

I'm very comfortable being on the side of objective analysis. I wouldn't expect this thread to be happily received on a fan site. Having said that....the OP has 30 likes. Some people can read and learn. You should try it.

Also, an obvious tell that someone has lost the high ground is an appeal to the mob.

 

[uvaballa]

Every team uses more than one RB, so the phrase is way overused. I want a complete RB that does everything and plays 3 downs. Not splitting carries. That may work for a pass heavy team.

Teams do that because relying heavily on one guy isn’t smart. What happens once he gets hurt or in Zeke case suspended? Better to have guys rotate to keep them fresh and not wear them down. Cowboys wore Murray down and 3-4 seasons later, he’s out of the league.

 

[Kaiser]

In a 20 page thread I haven't seen anyone offer a serious rebuttal other than "eye test."

Its 20 pages of people telling you your stats are cherry-picked nonsense. You don't see it as a serious rebuttal because you are a non-serious ego case who can't admit he was wrong about drafting Zeke in the first place.

 

[aria]

Having heart doesn’t define a guy who quits during plays (see Denver). Having heart doesn’t define a guy who is sitting out for more money while his teammates are practicing.

Toughness doesn’t define a guy who knocks out wafer thin DJ’s with a cheap shot. Toughness doesn’t define a guy who bullies women. Toughness doesn’t define a guy who bullies security guards half his size.

Stats apparently don’t matter to a lot of people now once someone has presented stats that don’t favor Zeke. Yet these same people have been throwing around “most yards” for the past 3 years as the reason to why Zeke is the best.

Stats did matter when the myth that Zeke faced more stacked boxes than any other RB but now once that’s been disproved then stats don’t matter anymore.

Now once it’s been proven, statistically, that Zeke isn’t all he was rumored to be now people are using the “eye test” to defend his worth. This is hilarious but typical for blind homers, the excuses will never stop until he doesn’t wear the Star, then stats and what a piece of human trash he really is will matter again. I can’t wait for the day!

 

[Kaiser]

Teams do that because relying heavily on one guy isn’t smart. What happens once he gets hurt or in Zeke case suspended? Better to have guys rotate to keep them fresh and not wear them down. Cowboys wore Murray down and 3-4 seasons later, he’s out of the league.

DeMarco played 7 seasons, which is longer than average for a RB. And Dallas didn't resign him, did they?

The Cowboys were right to do so, DeMarco had never played a full season until that glory year in 2014. Zeke is far more durable and talented than DeMarco ever was.

 

[kskboys]

He was a massive factor in the passing game: they moved him all over the formation. His 2nd year (1st as a starter), he caught 80 passes with an 11+ ypc to go along with his 293/1239/4.2 rushing line. He hasn't been the same since the injury, and the Arizona offense has been a disaster the last couple years. We'll see how he is now that he's a couple years removed and maybe Arizona can put together something that resembles an NFL offense.

I'm not generally that hung up on ypc on rushing: it varies a lot from year to year. If you're somewhere in the 4s, it's probably fine. When you drop into the 3s, that's a problem. When you're in the 5s, that's a really good indicator. YPC in the passing game is a different story.

I know. David was at 3.6 last season. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

Zeke caught 77 passes last year. And if YPC doesn't mean all that much, than YPCatch means even less!!!

Zeke was a major factor in the passing game last year. If they'd have moved him all over, you'd rate him higher?

I'm seriously not getting your line of thinking.

Carson Palmer threw for 4,233 yds in 2016, so the no QB thing isn't all that accurate for his first two years. The ARI OLine was very good for DJ's rook season in 15.

 

[kskboys]

DeMarco played 7 seasons, which is longer than average for a RB. And Dallas didn't resign him, did they?

The Cowboys were right to do so, DeMarco had never played a full season until that glory year in 2014. Zeke is far more durable and talented than DeMarco ever was.

Disagree. Average starting RB's who are good last longer, around 8-10 years.

 

[Established1971]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

win probability, lol
why play the games?

 

[Kaiser]

Disagree. Average starting RB's who are good last longer, around 8-10 years.

If you look at the top 20 RBs by yardage last year there are only two (AD and Lamar Miller) that have played more than 5 seasons. When get to 24th you have Doug Martin but he only averages 10 starts a year over his 7 year career. Frank Gore is 25th and he has been productive for a long time (like AD) but that is the exception and not the rule.

I just googled "average RB career" and it say its less than 3 years, but I discount that because it has to include the Darius Jackson and Rod Smith types.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

win probability, lol
why play the games?

The stats are generated by results of the game. Not to project them. It'd backward looking. Which for this 3 year analysis of Zeke's career is appropriate.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I know. David was at 3.6 last season. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

Zeke caught 77 passes last year. And if YPC doesn't mean all that much, than YPCatch means even less!!!

Zeke was a major factor in the passing game last year. If they'd have moved him all over, you'd rate him higher?

I'm seriously not getting your line of thinking.

Carson Palmer threw for 4,233 yds in 2016, so the no QB thing isn't all that accurate for his first two years. The ARI OLine was very good for DJ's rook season in 15.

I have no idea what you're arguing. Did you miss the part where I said, "he hasn't been the same after the injury?" I said that Johnson was terrific pre-injury. I'm not arguing about last year, except to note that the Arizona offense was a complete disaster last year and nobody was going to have success, which means that it's difficult to know how much Johnson may be bouncing back post-injury.

I don't know why you think ypc for receiving means less than ypc for rushing; I think the exact opposite.

Zeke caught a lot of passes last year, but he wasn't a "major factor in the passing game" in the sense of being a weapon they deployed. The vast majority of those passes were dumpoffs, the play of last resort; that's why the ypc was so low. He wasn't catching passes downfield or catching and running for first downs. Only 29% of his receptions went for 1st downs. Kamara and McCaffrey were at 38%, Johnson and Gurley at 44%: those are players who are major factors in the passing game.

 

[mattjames2010]

Some of the responses here shows the drop in post quality the past couple years

There is no excuse for reading the OP and just posting “lol no wrong”

Grow up, folks. Zeke won’t be bringing flowers to your place of work if you go in hard for him.

 

[Blue&Silver]

He's pretty special.