How Special is Ezekiel?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So Zeke needs players around him to be great? Dak doesn't get that excuse...

It's a team game.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

He has an elite ability to avoid filling up 20 page threads with butthurt cherry picked stats like "breakaway percentage".

Yes because comparing, statistically, how often running backs make game changing plays is bad or something.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

The fundamental flaw with all of these arguments is the idea that you can extrapolate the efficiency of niche backs out to the volume of touches Zeke sees.

I literally made this point in the OP.

Did you read the OP before commenting?

 

[Kaiser]

Yes because comparing, statistically, how often running backs make game changing plays is bad or something.

It is when you make blindingly stupid statements like "Zeke can't break long runs" after comparing him to specialty back stats like Breakaway Percentage.

And overpowering a defense with your running game while controlling the clock is game changing.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It is when you make blindingly stupid statements like "Zeke can't break long runs" after comparing him to specialty back stats like Breakaway Percentage.

Go back to my OP. Show me the specialty backs I compared Zeke to in Breakaway Percentage.

You can't. You know why? Because I didn't. I just provided Zeke's ranking. Are you mistaken or lying?

It's also telling you're focused just on that statistic. Don't like it? Ignore it. Now how about everything else? Zeke across the board has poor efficiency metrics. If you ignore them all...well that's telling.

 

[TWOK11]

Yes he had more runs and he wasn't efficient with them. How is that a good thing? The argument that you can give it to him in the 4th even after a huge workload and know he is going to get that yard for you isn't supported by facts.

In fact the analysis shows perhaps we should give him less carries in that scenario, not more. End of day we've made Zeke a top paid RB since the day he walked into the league. And now he wants the biggest deal ever. Shouldn't we expect he take huge volume and have huge efficiency? Why would we not demand this?

Also please see my last point of the OP. I specifically talk about RBs who have very little volume and the claims you should and shouldn't make about them.

It’s neither good or bad, it’s simply the concepts of regressing or progressing to the mean as well as the law of large numbers. My point is that Zeke’s mean is solid, and he has such a large sample size it’s silly to compare him to other backs with better or worse numbers. If every back compared to him had 400 touches a year, where would they settle out at relative to Zeke? We don’t know. We also don’t know how many of these backs would hold up under that workload, but history tells us not many.

And that’s the point. Zeke is reliable and always available and maintains his production (no matter what you think of it) from game to game and year to year.

 

[TWOK11]

You can't. You know why? Because I didn't. I just provided Zeke's ranking. Are you mistaken or lying?.

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of my point. It doesn’t matter whether you intend to compare him or not, the very nature of rankings is by definition comparing based on some metric. And because Zeke is so dramatically skewed statistically compared to other backs, such rankings are largely meaningless.

 

[punchnjudy]

One problem with using stats like overall percentage of runs gaining 15 yards or more is not all backs get equal amounts or percentages of carries in short yardage situations. We know Zeke gets a ton of carries on first down so let's see how he compares to Barkley and Gurley there.

Top 3 in Yardage on 1st and 10 only

Zeke 856 yards 156 carries 5.29 ypc 24 1st downs (15.3%)
Barkley 725 Yards 141 carries 5.14 ypc 20 1st Downs (14.2%)
Gurley 709 Yards 135 carries 5.25 ypc 20 1st Downs (14.8%)

On 1st and 10, his overall efficiency was the highest of the three and he had the highest percentage of carries for 10+ yards.

He may not actually have the breakaway ability of some other guys, and his percentage of 15+ or 20+ may be lower,but his consistency on 1st and 10, as well as his overall 3rd/4th down conversion numbers, show he's very good. His run success rate on 1st and 10 (usually defined as 5 or more yards) would probably also compare well but I don't feel like running all those numbers.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It’s neither good or bad, it’s simply the concepts of regressing or progressing to the mean as well as the law of large numbers. My point is that Zeke’s mean is solid, and he has such a large sample size it’s silly to compare him to other backs with better or worse numbers. If every back compared to him had 400 touches a year, where would they settle out at relative to Zeke? We don’t know. We also don’t know how many of these backs would hold up under that workload, but history tells us not many.

And that’s the point. Zeke is reliable and always available and maintains his production (no matter what you think of it) from game to game and year to year.

"Zeke's mean is solid."

This is based on what? If we aren't allowed to compare him to other backs high volume or not...because reasons...how do you know it's "solid."

Also calling Zeke reliable (turned up his 2nd season out of shape) and available (has missed 8 games and there was a fear he had another suspension looming) is a bit of a joke right?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

One problem with using stats like overall percentage of runs gaining 15 yards or more is not all backs get equal amounts or percentages of carries in short yardage situations. We know Zeke gets a ton of carries on first down so let's see how he compares to Barkley and Gurley there.

Top 3 in Yardage on 1st and 10 only

Zeke 856 yards 156 carries 5.29 ypc 24 1st downs (15.3%)
Barkley 725 Yards 141 carries 5.14 ypc 20 1st Downs (14.2%)
Gurley 709 Yards 135 carries 5.25 ypc 20 1st Downs (14.8%)

On 1st and 10, his overall efficiency was the highest of the three and he had the highest percentage of carries for 10+ yards.

He may not actually have the breakaway ability of some other guys, and his percentage of 15+ or 20+ may be lower,but his consistency on 1st and 10, as well as his overall 3rd/4th down conversion numbers, show he's very good. His run success rate on 1st and 10 (usually defined as 5 or more yards) would probably also compare well but I don't feel like running all those numbers.

Appreciate you sharing an actual statistic.

All 3 of them pretty indistinguishable from a numbers perspective. Amazing what Barklety did with that offense.

The biggest rub here is that running on 1st down is the least efficient time to do so sadly. HOpefully we actually pass more on early downs going forward.

 

[punchnjudy]

Appreciate you sharing an actual statistic.

All 3 of them pretty indistinguishable from a numbers perspective. Amazing what Barklety did with that offense.

The biggest rub here is that running on 1st down is the least efficient time to do so sadly. HOpefully we actually pass more on early downs going forward.

Agreed - basically the same. Of course, those guys are all pretty good. Without calculating it, I'm pretty sure we also had the highest percentage of 1st down runs since we're generally on the low end of "number of possessions." So, yeah, we could be less predictable for sure...

 

[TWOK11]

"Zeke's mean is solid."

This is based on what? If we aren't allowed to compare him to other backs high volume or not...because reasons...how do you know it's "solid”

Compared historically to the backs who sustained that workload across multiple seasons, a workload that was more common in prior eras. His first three years with that volume compare very favorably in terms of efficiency stats to those of his historical peers.

Now sure, the changes in the game limit the usefulness of that comparison. Statistically at least however it is a more valid comparison give the volume between Zeke and nearly everyone else today is so vast.

 

[TWOK11]

Also calling Zeke reliable (turned up his 2nd season out of shape) and available (has missed 8 games and there was a fear he had another suspension looming) is a bit of a joke right?

How many games has he missed due to injury? Being out of shape?

Every game he has missed has been a final meaningless game coaches decision or the suspension which is nearly universally considered to have been undeserved.

 

[kskboys]

We are zigzagging each other, I said DeMarco Murray played 7 quality years and that was longer than average.

Totally agree on RBs in general, I thought letting DeMarco go was the right move when his price went up to 9 Million a year. DeMarco is good, but you can replace good with OK at a low price.

Zeke is elite and you have to pay for that, the broader point is if he will hold up over the long run like the guys you mentioned or drop off when he takes the usual pounding RBs do. AD is a freak of nature and you can't expect that of other RBs, but Zeke just turned 24 and has been durable so far. Its completely realistic to think he stays at a high level for another 5 years.

I'd say you're correct!!!!! Not really disagreeing, I think we're just finalizing details!!!!

 

[ghst187]

Hmmmm...I wonder if he happened to watch the NO game (3.3 ypc) or Ten (3.6 ypc) or Wash (2.2 ypc) or Houston (2.7 ypc).

Those are pretty pathetic numbers for being “elite”.

The fact you put the term elite in quotations along with the context of the combined preceding words would imply to many readers that don’t think he is elite.

 

[kskboys]

So your entire evaluation is based on the 4.2 ypc. As I said, that's a number that varies a lot from year to year (Zeke was at 4.1 his second season). But the rushing isn't what made Johnson special. It was the fact that he was a perfectly fine rushing RB AND at the same time a truly exceptional weapon in the passing game.

And I disagree that he's special. And since the YPC varies, you have to go w/ the overall to get a pic of what's happening.

Your entire evaluation is based on his higher YPCatch. And since that went down to 8.9 last year, that means he wasn't effective?

 

[aria]

The fact you put the term elite in quotations along with the context of the combined preceding words would imply to many readers that don’t think he is elite.

Again, define elite? Is a player “elite” after one good game? One season? A 5 year career? A 10 year career? Would Zeke be elite if he had 900 yards behind one of the worst O lines in the NFL?

Under the circumstances, I think calling him elite is premature.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of my point. It doesn’t matter whether you intend to compare him or not, the very nature of rankings is by definition comparing based on some metric. And because Zeke is so dramatically skewed statistically compared to other backs, such rankings are largely meaningless.

I simply disagree that having more data on Zeke means data on Zeke is meaningless.

Most of these metrics Barkley shines brightly in. And he didn't have a small sample size.

This is excuse making. If Zeke is special it should show up somewhere other than volume.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Compared historically to the backs who sustained that workload across multiple seasons, a workload that was more common in prior eras. His first three years with that volume compare very favorably in terms of efficiency stats to those of his historical peers.

Now sure, the changes in the game limit the usefulness of that comparison. Statistically at least however it is a more valid comparison give the volume between Zeke and nearly everyone else today is so vast.

We actually don't really have these statistics for past greats. And we certainly don't have what's important for past greats and that's ranks relative to their peers.

 

[JD_KaPow]

And I disagree that he's special. And since the YPC varies, you have to go w/ the overall to get a pic of what's happening.

Your entire evaluation is based on his higher YPCatch. And since that went down to 8.9 last year, that means he wasn't effective?

Okay, it's becoming clear you're not arguing in good faith, but I'll give it one more try.

You asked why people thought Johnson was special. My answer is that he was special, before the injury. You're saying that no he wasn't, but you keep bringing in post-injury performance to try to prove your point. No, last year he wasn't special: I never said he was. But the 8.9 is still really good for a RB. Compare his 8.9 to Elliott's 7.4 last year, and the fact that 44% of Johnson's receptions went for 1st downs to Elliott's 29%. But again, I'm not arguing anything about last season.

The pre-2017 David Johnson was spectacular. He was an every-down back who was a perfectly fine rusher (4.4 ypc over those 2 years) and truly exceptional in the passing game. If you watched him play, you couldn't help but see it: they moved him all over, he ran between the tackles and ran downfield WR routes, and he produced first downs and TDs like crazy.

It's not just that he had a high receiving ypc, it's that he did it while catching 80 balls in 2016, leading all RBs and 20th in the league among all players. Among RBs, only Bell was close to him in receptions, and Johnson was gaining 2.5 more yards per catch. Over 52% (42) of his catches went for 1st downs; that's insanely good for an RB. And he did all that while also rushing for over 1200 yards.