How Special is Ezekiel?

[GenoT]

The average adult reads 250 minutes per minute. This should have taken you 6 whole minutes. Halfway through is 180 seconds.

Imagine bragging about such low stamina about a topic you care about enough to visit an affinity board.

Naw...it’s just that I’m a 67yo drunkard with a 20yo eyeglass prescription who enjoys making sport of hilariously pompous blowhards.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Hilarious, so the OP posts one of the most comprehensive breakdowns of Zeke’s career, with FACTS to back it up and all the Zeke lovers can do is say “screw stats” except when they want to use his total yards as the reason for him being the best RB.

Then all they can do is mock the OP for posting a lengthy, factual and sensible post as to why Zeke isn’t worth it and he ain’t all that. That pretty much sums up homerism to a T.

Many of them can't read nor comprehend that much analysis in that depth, despite the visuals provided. You know which ones they are lol.

 

[aria]

Naw...it’s just that I’m a 67yo drunkard with a 20yo eyeglass prescription who likes making sport of pompous blowhards.

Then you should be jumping in against Zeke, he’s in the running for the NFL’s biggest pompous blowhard.

 

[Direwolf63]

my question is where is s barkley in these 'advanced' stats?
they dont seem to be there.
if zeke does not stand out and barkley is so far from the leader list, it begs to question how predictive these stats are.

The Giants are making the same mistake the Cowboys made. I explained it above.

Barkley is a great player. But they were still only 5-11 last year. There are many reasons. But relying on your RB to carry your offense ks a big part of the problem.

 

[GenoT]

Then you should be jumping in against Zeke, he’s in the running for the NFL’s biggest pompous blowhard.

Well, maybe when I sober up and really think about it...

 

[aria]

Many of them can't read nor comprehend that much analysis in that depth, despite the visuals provided. You know which ones they are lol.

Reading some of the responses was not only frustrating but mind boggling, they just completed discredited everything he posted because a) they didn’t understand any of it b) they were in denial and still are c) they began reading it and once they realized how right he was they stopped reading or d) a combination of all.

 

[waldoputty]

The Giants are making the same mistake the Cowboys made. I explained it above.

Barkley is a great player. But they were still only 5-11 last year. There are many reasons. But relying on your RB to carry your offense ks a big part of the problem.

play selection was bad and formations were bad.
or perhaps it is cowboys without a wr1 and giants without a ol and wr most of the time and crappy qb?
but my point was these stats do not adequately predict the value of a player.

 

[aria]

Well, maybe when I sober up and really think about it...

Lol, cheers to that!

 

[Direwolf63]

play selection was bad and formations were bad.
or perhaps it is cowboys without a wr1 and giants without a ol and wr most of the time and crappy qb?
but my point was these stats do not adequately predict the value of a player.

The value of a player changes depending on the system he plays in.

Zeke is extremely valuable in Dallas because he plays in an old, 1990's run- oriented offense built by a HC who lives in 1992.

Zeke would be less valuable in a place like KC who actually run a modern offense. KC would never pay Zeke $15M a year because he would not be a valuable player there. They lost Kareem Hunt in the middle of the season and were a Dee Ford offsides from the beating the Patriots.

We lose Zeke and we are dead. So he is valuable. But that is because we are still in the 1990's when it comes to offensive design.

 

[Kaiser]

Naw...it’s just that I’m a 67yo drunkard with a 20yo eyeglass prescription who enjoys making sport of hilariously pompous blowhards.

If it wasn't for that demon rum you would realize that spending 6 minutes reading the OP is 5 minutes and 57 seconds longer than it deserves.

 

[aria]

The value of a player changes depending on the system he plays in.

Zeke is extremely valuable in Dallas because he plays in an old, 1990's run- oriented offense built by a HC who lives in 1992.

Zeke would be less valuable in a place like KC who actually run a modern offense. KC would never pay Zeke $15M a year because he would not be a valuable player there. They lost Kareem Hunt in the middle of the season and were a Dee Ford offside from the beating the Patriots.

We lose Zeke and we are dead. So he is valuable. But that is because we are still in the 1990's when it comes to offensive design.

I’m really hoping Moore changes that and as you alluded to, we would be less reliant on Zeke.

 

[Direwolf63]

I’m really hoping Moore changes that and as you alluded to, we would be less reliant on Zeke.

I'm doubtful, but we'll see.

 

[zrinkill]

enjoys making sport of hilariously pompous blowhards.

Perfect

 

[CWR]

Zeke does mean more to this team than his stats show.

One thing you can not find a stat for is defenses having to be aware and account for him. Im not talking about stacked boxes. Im talking about his presence. You'll also have a hard time stating out the toll our oline combined with Zeke's physicality takes on a defense. The combination of the two can cripple an opponents will.

That said I think this is a great post @Toruk_Makto and I appreciate you taking the time.

I personally hope we can re-sign him too a manageable deal, maybe something that will allow us to flip him in the next 2 or 3 years when we have an heir.

I dont know his shelf life, but I do know he hasn't been busting the long runs he did his rookie season and I cant help but think his physical style may have robbed him some of his long speed.

 

[Kaiser]

Many of them can't read nor comprehend that much analysis in that depth, despite the visuals provided. You know which ones they are lol.

Quoting PFF and "538 came up with a metric" isn't analysis, its the textbook definition of cherry picking things to support a bias.

Its fine to hate Zeke and its fine to argue he will be overpaid (he probably will be). But cherry picking "YPC in a night game where the opposing QB is a Virgo" is nonsense, especially when the person posting follows that by claiming intellectual superiority.

Especially when you follow it with tantrum statements like "Zeke can't break long runs".

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

Is there a reader's digest version?

That WAS the Reader's Digest version!

 

[Kaiser]

Zeke does mean more to this team than his stats show.

I don't think anyone can seriously argue that if Zeke and Gurley had traded places, Zeke's stats would not be dramatically better.

Zeke is a top five back and the team has said they won't set the market, but all the key guys will get top 5 money. Its kind of funny that we will have four billion threads, then a contract that is basically market rate, then an avalanche of "nevermind".

 

[blueblood70]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

you know if all these stats where as easy to fin and post in the 90s Emmitt Smith would be ripped apart as well, heres a newsflash, ES was NOT THE BEST BACK in the league in his ear either not in all category's, but when he needed to get the yards he got them, when he needed the big block he got it, he played through injury and was a back ho used the amount of carries accumulated over long period of time to be the all time back.. other retired early and mst would agree Barry Sanders was the best back in many ways, they both were great along with Thurman Thomas an a few others they were all ELITE..Using specific stats to fit your narrative doesnt work it just shows you want to have a way to discredit zeke because you dont like him..Oh and BTW ES held out twice not once and Zeke has every right given the CBA said rookies after 3 years of service can rework their contracts, hes exorcising that right..

you cant take that away from him, hes elite no matter the stat you try and use to say otherwise..

 

[GenoT]

Lol, cheers to that!

To be somewhat serious , I’m in on Zeke because we’re a team with a roster that’s built to win now — not another 23 seasons from now.

However, we have a still-developing/middle-of-the-pack QB, a defense that has yet to prove it can consistently (please reread: consistently) shut down quality teams for 4 quarters and a 29yo first-year OC who works under a slightly-better-than-average “company man” HC.

Considering the above, it’s kinda nice to have a RB who currently gives us @20 carries/100yds per game, is a good receiver and blocker and who doesn’t get injured (knock on wood). Only a few other teams can claim this.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

Did the guy who gave you Zeke's fumbling and long runs info also tell you there are 250 minutes in a minute?

Bwahahahahahaha