How Special is Ezekiel?

[stilltheguru]

Well if Zeke is this irreplaceable TB that we have to bring back at a huge number, it would stand to reason that he would have to be way better than two TBs who saw their production matched by cheaper options.

You are actually making the other argument here.

You're trying but failing. Ima let you slide.

 

[Playmaker3128]

How many times on drives does zeke put his head down on a 3rd and 1-2 and pick up the first down. There are literally times there is nothing there and he keeps drives going by himself.

With zeke a 2nd and 8 becomes a 3rd and 3 instead of a 3rd and 5.

Not only that he’s a great receiver and blocker.

Little things he does are a huge reason we win football games. These are things only great running backs do.

 

[G2]

How many times on drives does zeke put his head down on a 3rd and 1-2 and pick up the first down. There are literally times there is nothing there and he keeps drives going by himself.

With zeke a 2nd and 8 becomes a 3rd and 3 instead of a 3rd and 5.

Not only that he’s a great receiver and blocker.

Little things he does are a huge reason we win football games. These are things only great running backs do.

We currently have no RB who can grind for yards, block well, take every snap other than Elliott.

It seems some think drafting him 4th overall was an experiment.

 

[Kaiser]

Really? Really? Cherry picking?

No kidding its cherry picking.

First, you are using PFF. Second you are cherry picking nonsense stats from them like "breakaway percentage", followed by you belching out "he can't break long runs".

Third you are cherry picking time frames. Zeke was "first in fumbles" because he was first in carries. The year before he only had one fumble, if you go by fumbles per carry he is league average at worst.

That is even before we talk about logic trainwrecks like "he got more carries, which must mean he is bad".

 

[Sydla]

You're trying but failing. Ima let you slide.

The only one failing is you, who on one hand claim Zeke isn’t that much better than Bell or Gurley, who found their production matched by cheaper options, but then claim Zeke is irreplaceable.

Your logic doesn’t make a ton of sense.

 

[Kaiser]

I don't mean to be glib but almost anyone?

McFadden was basically out of football and ran for 1k yards with our worst passing attack in a decade.

Morris was more efficient in 2017 than Zeke was.

UDFA Phillip Lindsay just had an amazing rookie year in Denver with no passing game to speak of.

All three of these are nonsense examples. McFadden wasn't "out of football", he was on a terrible team and always hurt, so they cut him rather than pay him. Morris wasn't "more efficient", he had one 70 run padding his stats up from a 4.2 YPC to a 4.8 YPC. He literally had a 5 yard hole to run through on that run and Jordan Chunn would have gained the same yardage on that play (he was caught from behind).

Using your "I found the one in a thousand UDFA" theory, no team should ever draft or pay a QB because Tony Romo turned into a Pro Bowler.

 

[DandyDon52]

The average adult reads 250 minutes per minute. This should have taken you 6 whole minutes. Halfway through is 180 seconds.

Imagine bragging about such low stamina about a topic you care about enough to visit an affinity board.

Now days, most people cant read more than 5 lines, at which point their brain starts to smoke and sparks are flying and they pass out.

If you want people to read it you have to condense it , and use multiple posts.
I read the whole thing and the stats you used are a little vague. People wont relate to it or understand it.

Plus many are brain washed or are into idolizing elliot, he can do no wrong in their eyes.
Ask them why he has not broke murray's single game rushing record or season record, or the 100 yd per game 1st 7 games record
that jim brown held for 50+ years , and they will come up with some excuse, usually Dak or playcaller etc.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

I’m convinced. Let’s roll with Pollard.

 

[DandyDon52]

All three of these are nonsense examples. McFadden wasn't "out of football", he was on a terrible team and always hurt, so they cut him rather than pay him. Morris wasn't "more efficient", he had one 70 run padding his stats up from a 4.2 YPC to a 4.8 YPC. He literally had a 5 yard hole to run through on that run and Jordan Chunn would have gained the same yardage on that play (he was caught from behind).

Using your "I found the one in a thousand UDFA" theory, no team should ever draft or pay a QB because Tony Romo turned into a Pro Bowler.

LOL it isnt morris's fault that elliot cant break a 70 yd run and feed me gets caught from behind and has big holes sometimes too, he just doesnt go 70 yds.

Elliot was very good in 2016, but 2017 he was avg or less.
In 2018 he was avg again, but better in some areas, like receiving. But he was in no way "Special" Dallas was 3-5 with the greatest RB ever,
so he doesnt carry the team or even help that much.
Now you can respond with 11 guys in the box, and Dak cant make them pay and linehan sucked etc etc.
Bottom line is Elliot had the potential to be special but he would rather party get drunk alot get over weight and out of shape, and get in trouble,
than be a great RB.
He thinks he can do all that and still be great, but he cant.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Well rounded running backs are a wonderful thing but honestly, without a quality passing game, Zeke's talents are wasted just running him into these brick walls. Maybe this is the year Dallas makes other teams pay for keying on the run.

 

[Kaiser]

LOL it isnt morris's fault that elliot cant break a 70 yd run and feed me gets caught from behind and has big holes sometimes too, he just doesnt go 70 yds.

 

[Kaiser]

LOL it isnt morris's fault that elliot cant break a 70 yd run .

This is the video of that 70 yard run. Go to 0:17 and you see Morris had a hole to run through 5 yards wide. Most High School RBs get 70 yards on that play.

 

[NotForLong]

This is a argument because Zeke’s inefficiency is dictated by the fact he faces more stacked boxes than any other running back in the game and has a garbage QB that can’t make a team pay, via the THE LOOkS ZEKE CAUSES.

So when you say:



The fault is definitely NOT in Zeke.

And BTW, he ran way more into stacked boxes, meaning Checkdown Charlie himself had a hard time checking out of run plays apparently, even though the looks favor pass.

Look at the stats on short yardage situation. Zeke ran it 43 times, while the guy that is number 1 ran it 8 and nobody above Zeke ran it over 15 times, outside Connor who ran it 17. Talk about total lack of normalization in trying to make a case.

Its getting to the point where I only look for your posts for any semblence of reality

 

[NotForLong]

Only time I give stats presedence over my eyes is when I play Fantasy Football

Numbers also make average players look good when surrounded by talent, it works both ways..

When u watch Zeke play you realize the guy is a beast not to mention he was a Top 5 Pick..

Numbers only tell part of the story so unless you really know the game, you might rank certain players higher or lower but it’s a team sport. There’s way too many variables that can effect those numbers...

Jerry is going to pay because he’s old school. He likes ball control offenses, that’s why he invested so heavily in the o-line. Zeke is his cherry on top...

 

[NotForLong]

The average adult reads 250 minutes per minute. This should have taken you 6 whole minutes. Halfway through is 180 seconds.

Imagine bragging about such low stamina about a topic you care about enough to visit an affinity board.

You have cognitive dissonance. . . He was trying to be nice. . . what he had read was enough to know the rest was garbage

 

[NotForLong]

Hilarious, so the OP posts one of the most comprehensive breakdowns of Zeke’s career, with FACTS to back it up and all the Zeke lovers can do is say “screw stats” except when they want to use his total yards as the reason for him being the best RB.

Then all they can do is mock the OP for posting a lengthy, factual and sensible post as to why Zeke isn’t worth it and he ain’t all that. That pretty much sums up homerism to a T.

I have cognitive dissonance. . . What are you trying to say?

 

[NotForLong]

Imagine reading the OP and thinking this.

Now you are referring to yourself in the 3rd person

 

[NotForLong]

Not much better but enough to where I know the difference. Bell wasn’t durable and Gurley has had an up and down career truth be told. Zeke been Zeke since day 1. B b but oline. Not trying to hear that. Those oline boys was in and out the lineup all year and Zeke was still Zeke.

Truth, I was in a fantasy league his rookie year and Gurley was dropped

 

[DandyDon52]

LOL who tackled zeke?? casper the ghost?
plus you may like it, but hurdling players is very stupid and got him hurt last season. all he had to was cut right of the guy and he
probably goes all the way.
he also had a big hole to run through, I think I could of got to the 25 or further and I am way older than super elliot, and I would not fall down.

 

[Melonfeud]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

Impressively awesome in the utmost fashioned of thought provoking scrutiny O.P. ,,,in fact, so much so, as to it generating one hell of an oncoming right eye ball throbber of a headache,due to it's digested perusal thereof,,,thanks a pantload fer' that ,Pal