Hurst, Vea or Payne?

[cnuball21]

Reed didn't get off blocks for all his ability to anchor. Payne needs a better repertoire than the slap and swim but that he was able to use it to get free consistently speaks well for him.

You sound exactly like the people that were poo-pooing Ramsey a couple years ago. He's now the best young corner in the game.

Here's a pretty good scouting report on Reed and some quality run numbers highlighting his ability to get off blocks and make plays.

"
Ranked second in the nation with a +39.9 grade against the run and led all interior defensive linemen in run stop percentage at 13.4 percent

WHAT HE DOES BEST:
• Technique is excellent, rarely caught off balance or moved off the point of attack
• Handles double teams better than most defensive tackles in the class
• Excellent at two-gapping, finding the ball, and making the play
• Can play head up on blockers, whether against centers, guards, or tackles. Brings versatility to the DLine against the run
• Five batted passes tied for third in the nation among interior defensive linemen"

 

[cnuball21]

Well I don’t compare him to Hurst. I think he’s better than Vea because I think in the NFL he’ll add more pass rush with equally good run defense. Payne is a big slab of meat. People underestimate him

But Vea has already proven he can generate pass rush...I think right around 30 pressures on the season.

 

[Jinxx13x]

Seems to me that a lot of people are basing their opinion of Payne’s pass rush ability...dude has freakish quickness for his size. He will absolutely be able to provide plus pass rush ability from the 1 tech spot

I agree the scouting reports i have read said he has incredible power and is the most pro ready out of everyone

 

[stilltheguru88]

But Vea has already proven he can generate pass rush...I think right around 30 pressures on the season.

I don’t like the competition he went against most of the time. Vs Stanford and penn st he was pedestrian as a pass rusher/penetrator

 

[cnuball21]

I don’t like the competition he went against most of the time. Vs Stanford and penn st he was pedestrian as a pass rusher/penetrator

Sorry, I was wrong as Vea had 39 pressures on the year and he entered the season with the 6th best pass rush productivity in the DT class (10.2). He's a very balanced prospect.

And it's the PAC 12, not division 3...

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

DE Average: 4.88
Ch.Jones - 4.78
D.Law - 4.81
Watt - 4.84
Suggs - 4.84
Cambel - 4.85
Bosa - 4.86

(Hayward - didn't run)

So wrong on pretty much all counts there Fuzzy, and it's a bit dodgy putting Watt and Cambell with the DE's when they came in around 280-290lbs or there abouts. Of course bigger dudes like this are gonna be a bit slower than the mean when the mean weight is something like 40 pounds lighter. JJ Watts was one of the highest SPARQ athletes in his year so compared to weight, he was very impressive.

Percentage of 1st string players that ran above average, here I think the author called it expected peer average (EPA):

From the report:
"The Defensive Tackle attribute correlations are not what most people would expect. Brute strength and quickness would seem to be hallmarks of the DT position, but based on how starters tested out in each of these attributes, this is the attribute order of importance for DTs: 3-cone, 40, Short Shuttle, Broad Jump, Vert, and then Bench. With no long shuttle result having been recorded by a DT since 2005, that leaves six attributes"

40-Yard Dash – DT Who would intuitively think that the 40-yard dash is important at a position that might average 10 yards per play? Whatever the gut may say, reality says that 61% of starting DTs exceeded peer average in the 40-yard dash and ran the 40 in less than 5.11.

http://www.ourlads.com/pdfs/PhysAttributes_NFLSuccess.pdf

I actually found this interesting and well worth reading regardless of this conversation. You can poor over the details if you like Fuzzy but it essentially says that for DT's, 40 yard dash has the second highest correlation between above average times and 1st string starters.

Can we put to be this now and get back to the player?

So now running a 4.87 is a "good" 40 yard dash? I guess you weren't here a couple of years ago when Watt and the rest were being panned for not running better. That was my point: they ran mediocre 40 times yet are amongst the best DE in the league. In comparison guys who ran 4.5 and 4.6 were regaled as better picks on the strength of that time. I picked a bunch of 4.8 guys for a reason as they are well below the leaders in any given year.

And again you fail to understand what the article is saying on two counts. First, there is a difference between saying "successful NFL DT exceed the average 40 time threshold most of the time" -what that article says- and "the faster you run the 40 the more successful you are at playing DL" -what I am arguing against. You are arguing a strawman. Google more.

Second, 39% of the time that threshold fails. That is an immense amount of uncertainty and a poor predictor for any individual sample. As I said before there is a difference between "second best" and "accurate" or "predictive" that you are not getting in this context.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Here's a pretty good scouting report on Reed and some quality run numbers highlighting his ability to get off blocks and make plays.

"
Ranked second in the nation with a +39.9 grade against the run and led all interior defensive linemen in run stop percentage at 13.4 percent

WHAT HE DOES BEST:
• Technique is excellent, rarely caught off balance or moved off the point of attack
• Handles double teams better than most defensive tackles in the class
• Excellent at two-gapping, finding the ball, and making the play
• Can play head up on blockers, whether against centers, guards, or tackles. Brings versatility to the DLine against the run
• Five batted passes tied for third in the nation among interior defensive linemen"

Please bold the portion that you think says he does a good job getting off blocks and penetrating. That says he could anchor and bat passes.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

But Vea has already proven he can generate pass rush...I think right around 30 pressures on the season.

As I said before he gets good push with his strength particularly against inferior competition like Richmond but he shows no proficiency in the handwork to disengage and finish his rush. He certainly has upside and we have a good teacher but handwork is not a guarantee to develop. Payne is more polished in this arena and is more pro ready because of it.

 

[cnuball21]

As I said before he gets good push with his strength particularly against inferior competition like Richmond but he shows no proficiency in the handwork to disengage and finish his rush. He certainly has upside and we have a good teacher but handwork is not a guarantee to develop. Payne is more polished in this arena and is more pro ready because of it.

Go check out AL's schedule this year and tell me they didn't play some complete scrub teams. Why didn't Payne at least pad the stats against those teams?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Go check out AL's schedule this year and tell me they didn't play some complete scrub teams. Why didn't Payne at least pad the stats against those teams?

Begging the question is not an argument; I am not going to play your game and assume your premise is true. That is a convoluted manner to get to a conclusion anyway.

 

[cnuball21]

Begging the question is not an argument; I am not going to play your game and assume your premise is true. That is a convoluted manner to get to a conclusion anyway.

Lol ok

 

[AmishCowboy]

To me Payne is a solid 1 Tech with some pass rushing ability, he would be a solid pick at #19

 

[DanA]

So now running a 4.87 is a "good" 40 yard dash? I guess you weren't here a couple of years ago when Watt and the rest were being panned for not running better. That was my point: they ran mediocre 40 times yet are amongst the best DE in the league. In comparison guys who ran 4.5 and 4.6 were regaled as better picks on the strength of that time. I picked a bunch of 4.8 guys for a reason as they are well below the leaders in any given year.

And again you fail to understand what the article is saying on two counts. First, there is a difference between saying "successful NFL DT exceed the average 40 time threshold most of the time" -what that article says- and "the faster you run the 40 the more successful you are at playing DL" -what I am arguing against. You are arguing a strawman. Google more.

Second, 39% of the time that threshold fails. That is an immense amount of uncertainty and a poor predictor for any individual sample. As I said before there is a difference between "second best" and "accurate" or "predictive" that you are not getting in this context.

Come on Fuzzy

- 69% would be a strong correlation, it's not an arguable point that it's not strong. The table shows a steady decline as you go down from 1st string to camp body.
- Forty times were shown to be the 2nd best predictor for DT's and the best predictor for DE's, you specifically suggested other events were better.
- The slow guys you mentioned all ran above average times despite being above average in weight for the position. In some cases massively so.

Sorry Fuzzy but SPARQ score is a thing in football and the 40 time is a key component. A guy that runs a 5.00+ forty time doesn't get the same SPARQ score as a guy running 4.65. Which brings us back to the original argument. Payne is nothing like Sapp

 

[TheFinisher]

Payne looks like a guy who could play 1T or 3T at a high level. He wins in ways similar to Ndamukong Sug, rare upper body strength combined with lower body flexibility. Only 20 years old, I think I'd have to swing on his upside here. Not to mention he's clean as a whistle and by all accounts has a great work ethic.

 

[vlad]

Vea is who I hope we draft anyway...just want that giant powerful guy in the middle to free everything around him up.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Come on Fuzzy

- 69% would be a strong correlation, it's not an arguable point that it's not strong. The table shows a steady decline as you go down from 1st string to camp body.
- Forty times were shown to be the 2nd best predictor for DT's and the best predictor for DE's, you specifically suggested other events were better.
- The slow guys you mentioned all ran above average times despite being above average in weight for the position. In some cases massively so.

Sorry Fuzzy but SPARQ score is a thing in football and the 40 time is a key component. A guy that runs a 5.00+ forty time doesn't get the same SPARQ score as a guy running 4.65. Which brings us back to the original argument. Payne is nothing like Sapp

I know what SPARQ is chachi. And if Sapp weighed 285 and ran that then Payne at 20 lbs heavier is not comparing apples to apples. It's a weight to speed ratio. A guy running a a 5.0 at 330 lbs is a better athlete than a 260 lbs guy running a 4.75. A fail like that while trying to lecture me on the metric is amusing though. Almost as amusing as you speaking on Paynes times when he has not run yet.

And again: a predictor of what? You completely ignore that argument. We are talking about a first round pick and the standard you are talking about is serviceable starter.

And of course you blithely double down on the premise and are completely obtuse to the point I made. I am looking for elite players that have HoF potential. If you are trying to argue that a player has to run past a certain benchmark to compete then fine. Again that is not what I am arguing. I don't want us drafting slugs that cannot run.

At the same time there is no difference between a guy that runs around the average, like all the guys I listed, and a guy that is at the top of any year's 40 times. That has been my point.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Payne looks like a guy who could play 1T or 3T at a high level. He wins in ways similar to Ndamukong Sug, rare upper body strength combined with lower body flexibility. Only 20 years old, I think I'd have to swing on his upside here. Not to mention he's clean as a whistle and by all accounts has a great work ethic.

His flexibility is what intrigues me. We play big ends with DLaw and Irving. Collins can play either spot. Both ends can play both sides and both tackles can flip as well with Payne. I really like the potential of that. It makes it easy to disguise and hard to gameplan.

 

[Big_D]

Vea.. the guy is huge and I think it's what this D has been missing for a long time.

 

[cnuball21]

Vea.. the guy is huge and I think it's what this D has been missing for a long time.

I just love his ability to be a 3 down player at that size. That's what makes him a first rounder and not just a run clogging body that would get drafted in the mid rounds.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I just love his ability to be a 3 down player at that size. That's what makes him a first rounder and not just a run clogging body that would get drafted in the mid rounds.

I was watching Josh Rosen's tape vs Washington, but ended up just watching Vea because he was stealing the show as a pass rusher. Dude is a monster athlete with so much potential.