Hurst, Vea or Payne?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm aware that Alabama runs a base 2 gap 3-4. But as with the Patriots, it's a hybrid system that gives a variety of looks. I'll repeat what I said, Allen played quite a bit inside and Payne some 3T too alongside Tomlinson shading the guards outside shoulder. It wasn't their base defense but we saw enough of it to see that Payne wasn't really productive in the same way that Sapp was as a 3T. And Alabama in 06 had four top 100 drafted linemen so without going back and looking at the specifics, I'm sure Payne saw plenty of time isolated one on one because he was not the biggest threat.

He's a big powerful dude with wicked hands but nothing like Sapp. Sapp allegedly ran a 4.69 forty..... let's see if Payne gets anywhere near that.

Like I said I watched two 2016 games Clemson and MSU and did not see him lined up there once. He definitely was not the 3 in the nickel. I saw AL line up over the guard quite a bit. Not much 3 period. Comparing it to the dynamic front that the Patriots use is just false.

And again, you are missing the point. Payne was not asked to attack gaps lined up shaded on the outside shoulder. Go over to draftbreakdown and look for yourself.

Lastly 40 times is meaningless to pass rush success. a 4.2 shuttle, 36" vert 11" broad at 285 is what would be impressive.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Then that's called pad level, not bend.

To me, it sounds like you're throwing scouting cliches at the wall without any real understanding of what they mean, and then trying to BS your way out of it. Inb4 some rage filled 5 paragraph response, it doesn't change my point

There are many names for the same thing. You bend at the hips and knees to get low pad level. He is low cut so does so naturally ie natural bend.

And it's adorable that you put yourself as the arbiter of what is proper scouting terminology as if you are some sort of expert. I've never claimed to be a scout so I suggest you get over yourself.

Oh and Mayock says you're wrong:

Natural Bender:
A flexible, athletic offensive or defensive lineman who bends at the knees, not the waist.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000470333/printable/mayockisms-a-glossary-of-mike-mayock-terms

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

As meaningless as the 40 time may be for a DT. If you've got one running 4.69 and another running 5.00+ then they're not similar.

40 time has no correlation to NFL success for DE much less DT. Sure they are "different" but not in any way meaningful to the discussion at hand. It's shuttle, jumps, and press.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not sure Payne is a better talent then Robinson or Reed who were both 2nd rounders - granted I thought they both should've gone earlier.

I agree with the 25-40 range.

I want a top 20 selection making more plays.

Reed didn't get off blocks for all his ability to anchor. Payne needs a better repertoire than the slap and swim but that he was able to use it to get free consistently speaks well for him.

You sound exactly like the people that were poo-pooing Ramsey a couple years ago. He's now the best young corner in the game.

 

[DanA]

40 time has no correlation to NFL success for DE much less DT. Sure they are "different" but not in any way meaningful to the discussion at hand. It's shuttle, jumps, and press.

This feels a complete fabrication, there's no way this is true....you just made that up didn't you.

Or is it something Mike Maycock says so much be true?

 

[beware_d-ware]

This feels a complete fabrication, there's no way this is true....you just made that up didn't you.

Or is it something Mike Maycock says so much be true?

The three Combine tests most correlated for DE sacks in the NFL are 3 cone, broad jump and - wait for it - 40 time.

Copying the Reddit link posts the whole thread on here, and it's a big eyesore, but here's a broken link if you want to see the results.

https: //www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/4gzlo3/a_quick_easy_way_to_tell_if_an_edge_rush_prospect/

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

This feels a complete fabrication, there's no way this is true....you just made that up didn't you.

Or is it something Mike Maycock says so much be true?

Outside of chasing a ball carrier downfield exactly where do you think the 40 yard dash is relevant to what a DL does?

It's about burst off the line and quickness not running for distance.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The three Combine tests most correlated for DE sacks in the NFL are 3 cone, broad jump and - wait for it - 40 time.

Copying the Reddit link posts the whole thread on here, and it's a big eyesore, but here's a broken link if you want to see the results.

https: //www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/4gzlo3/a_quick_easy_way_to_tell_if_an_edge_rush_prospect/

LOL reddit.

And quote the portion of the post where he says that 40 time correlates. He says 3 cone and broadjump thresholds.

Bosa is listed as passing and he ran a poor 40. Thank you for proving my point. DLaw says hello too.

Google some more.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

And this is cute. More people so butthurt about being wrong that they try to get any point of fact right over me like this is some machismo exercise. It's absolutely juvenile behavior.

 

[beware_d-ware]

And quote the portion of the post where he says that 40 time correlates. He says 3 cone and broadjump thresholds..

Looking at the full set of data, 40 time is the 3rd strongest correlation for sure

 

[DanA]

And this is cute. More people so butthurt about being wrong that they try to get any point of fact right over me like this is some machismo exercise. It's absolutely juvenile behavior.

Where exactly are you right?

Payne plays nothing like Warren Sapp
There is a correlation between 40 times and NFL success for D-Linemen.


0 from 2 buddy but I'll leave it because you seem kinda steamed.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Quote not in the reddit post

Broad Jump 9'9" or better, 3 cone under 7.20. It seems almost too simple on the surface, but check this out.

I'm looking at every player drafted between 2003 and 2012. I'm not including players drafted in 2013/14/15 because they haven't completed their rookie contracts yet.

That said, players who jumped 9'9" or better in the broad jump AND had a 3 cone under 7.20 average almost 21 sacks by the end of their rookie contract, AKA their first 4 seasons in the league. The exact number is 20.84 for those of you who are skeptical about me saying "almost".

Players who fail ONE of those two little checks average 7.5 sacks by the end of their rookie contract. Players who fail both average 5.9.

To look beyond just averages, get this. The odds of a player contributing exactly 0 sacks for a team if they check these boxes are 15.56%. If they fail to check even one of the two boxes those odds go up to 30.16%. Failing to check both boxes raises the odds even more, to 43.18%.

The odds of a player accumulating at least 20 sacks in their rookie contract if they check both boxes? 44.4%. If they fail to check one? 9.68%. Fail both and your odds of accumulating 20+ sacks in your rookie contract are 6.82%.

At the end of the day, it's not COMPLETELY fool proof, but if you like playing the odds, this has gotta be the best combination of ease+accuracy out there.

If you don't like advanced metrics but still want a quick, easy way to tell which edge rush prospects have a good shot at being pretty good, all you need to pay attention to is 3 cone and broad jump. Seems simple enough, right?

Looking at this year's class, here are the players that check both boxes:

• Joey Bosa (grats Chargers)
• Alex McCalister
• Trent Corney
• Leonard Floyd (grats Bears)
• Bryson Albright
• Jonathan Woodard
• Stephen Weatherly
• Shaq Lawson (grats Bills)
• Kamalei Correa
• Tyler Roberts

Players who fail one check, but not two:

• Shawn Oakman (3 cone 7.53)
• Bronson Kaufusi (broad jump 9'3")
• Shiro Davis (3 cone 7.22)
• Emmanuel Ogbah (3 cone 7.26)
• Tautvydas Kieras (broad jump 9'8")
• Shilique Calhoun (broad jump 9'7")
• Romeo Okwara (3 cone 7.38)
• James Cowser (broad jump 9'3")
• Noah Spence (3 cone 7.21)
• Jason Fanaika (broad jump 9'5")
• Tyrone Holmes (broad jump 9'5")
• Dadi Nicholas (broad jump 9'8")
• Victor Ochi (3 cone 7.24)
• Yannick Ngakoue (3 cone 7.35)

Players who fail both checks - the only drafted edge rushers since 2003 to fail both checks and still manage 20+ sacks on their rookie contracts have been Carlos Dunlap, Jabaal Sheard, and Ray Edwards. Here are your almost-definitely-busts:

• Carl Nassib
• Jonathan Bullard (although I like him as an interior DL)
• Kevin Dodd
• Branden Jackson
• Mehdi Abdesmad
• Matt Judon

If we ran this little exercise using the 2013/14/15 draft classes, here are the players who would've passed as well as the # of sacks they have so far:

2013: Ezekiel Ansah (30), Devin Taylor (10.5), Jamie Collins (9.5), Armonty Bryant (8.5), Damontre Moore (8.5), Barkevious Mingo (7), Dion Jordan (3), Margus Hunt (1.5), Ty Powell (1), Corey Lemonier (1), Lavar Edwards (0), Joe Kruger (0), and Malliciah Goodman (0).

2014: Khalil Mack (19), Kony Ealy (9), Anthony Barr (7.5), Trent Murphy (6), Dee Ford (5.5), Marcus Smith (1.5), and Tyler Starr (0).

2015: Preston Smith (8), Danielle Hunter (6), Vic Beasley (4), Frank Clark (3), Kyle Emanuel (1), Randy Gregory (0), and Eli Harold (0)

It's worth noting that only 19.08% of all edge rushers drafted from 2003-2012 managed to eclipse the 20 sack mark during their rookie contract. Out of that 19.08% though, 68.97% check both of these athletic boxes. Food for thought.

The above is the reddit post. It doesn't even say 40 time. It does say that Bosa passed muster and he ran a poor 40 in the 4.7s.

Like I sad, Google some more.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Where exactly are you right?

Payne plays nothing like Warren Sapp
There is a correlation between 40 times and NFL success for D-Linemen.


0 from 2 buddy but I'll leave it because you seem kinda steamed.

This is exactly what I was talking about. I said you were wrong. This is not some zero sum game where you being wrong makes me right. That is the juvenile mindset I was talking about that you are displaying. Repeatedly.

This behavior is cliche for me. I don't get mad about it. I think it's kinda funny like watching children get mad over trivial stuff and the way they can carry on when they lack discipline.

As for you being wrong, recall trying to call me out about natural bend and accusing me of using terms I didn't even understand? Of course you couldn't take that L gracefully much less own up to it so here you are doubling down on the machismo routine.

 

[beware_d-ware]

The above is the reddit post. It doesn't even say 40 time. It does say that Bosa passed muster and he ran a poor 40 in the 4.7s.

Like I sad, Google some more.

CTRL-F some more.



If you're not going to make any effort, I'm not going to make any effort. See ya buddy.

 

[DanA]

This is exactly what I was talking about. I said you were wrong. This is not some zero sum game where you being wrong makes me right. That is the juvenile mindset I was talking about that you are displaying. Repeatedly.

This behavior is cliche for me. I don't get mad about it. I think it's kinda funny like watching children get mad over trivial stuff and the way they can carry on when they lack discipline.

As for you being wrong, recall trying to call me out about natural bend and accusing me of using terms I didn't even understand? Of course you couldn't take that L gracefully much less own up to it so here you are doubling down on the machismo routine.

You're confusing two different posters.

I said "what does natural bend have to do with interior linemen?" After you clarified that you meant knee bend and not ability to bend around the corner I dropped it and moved on. I agree Payne plays with good pad level and don't really care how it is defined. Another poster does....that's the internet.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

CTRL-F some more.



If you're not going to make any effort, I'm not going to make any effort. See ya buddy.

It's in the comments apparently; silly me for reading the actual OP. You apparently do not understand that 3rd best does not mean well. Also those are edge rushers not defensive tackles.

As I have pointed out, Bosa, Watt, Jones, DLaw, Campbell, Heyward, Suggs and several others did not run good 40 times. Most of the NFL sack leaders. Guys like Margus Hunt, Hodges, Jeffcoat, Gayle, Odighizuwa, and others did. Of course there is no correlation coefficient given.

And googling reddit comments is not exactly effort, chachi.

 

[DanA]

DE Average: 4.88
Ch.Jones - 4.78
D.Law - 4.81
Watt - 4.84
Suggs - 4.84
Cambel - 4.85
Bosa - 4.86

(Hayward - didn't run)

So wrong on pretty much all counts there Fuzzy, and it's a bit dodgy putting Watt and Cambell with the DE's when they came in around 280-290lbs or there abouts. Of course bigger dudes like this are gonna be a bit slower than the mean when the mean weight is something like 40 pounds lighter. JJ Watts was one of the highest SPARQ athletes in his year so compared to weight, he was very impressive.

Percentage of 1st string players that ran above average, here I think the author called it expected peer average (EPA):

From the report:
"The Defensive Tackle attribute correlations are not what most people would expect. Brute strength and quickness would seem to be hallmarks of the DT position, but based on how starters tested out in each of these attributes, this is the attribute order of importance for DTs: 3-cone, 40, Short Shuttle, Broad Jump, Vert, and then Bench. With no long shuttle result having been recorded by a DT since 2005, that leaves six attributes"

40-Yard Dash – DT Who would intuitively think that the 40-yard dash is important at a position that might average 10 yards per play? Whatever the gut may say, reality says that 61% of starting DTs exceeded peer average in the 40-yard dash and ran the 40 in less than 5.11.

http://www.ourlads.com/pdfs/PhysAttributes_NFLSuccess.pdf

I actually found this interesting and well worth reading regardless of this conversation. You can poor over the details if you like Fuzzy but it essentially says that for DT's, 40 yard dash has the second highest correlation between above average times and 1st string starters.

Can we put to be this now and get back to the player?

 

[stilltheguru88]

I'm not sure Payne is a better talent then Robinson or Reed who were both 2nd rounders - granted I thought they both should've gone earlier.

I agree with the 25-40 range.

I want a top 20 selection making more plays.

He’s better than both.

 

[DanA]

He’s better than both.

Do you think he's better by a lot?

I think they're pretty even comparisons and have Payne slightly ahead but in the same sort of ballpark.

 

[stilltheguru88]

Do you think he's better by a lot?

I think they're pretty even comparisons and have Payne slightly ahead but in the same sort of ballpark.

Well I don’t compare him to Hurst. I think he’s better than Vea because I think in the NFL he’ll add more pass rush with equally good run defense. Payne is a big slab of meat. People underestimate him