I prefer Dallas' draft position

[DFWJC]

Top Ten picks from 2009:

11Detroit LionsStafford, MatthewMatthew Stafford† QBGeorgiaSEC
12St. Louis RamsSmith, JasonJason Smith OTBaylorBig 12
13Kansas City ChiefsJackson, TysonTyson Jackson DELSUSEC
14Seattle SeahawksCurry, AaronAaron Curry LBWake ForestACC
15New York JetsSanchez, MarkMark Sanchez QBUSCPac-10from Cleveland [R1 - 1]
16Cincinnati BengalsSmith, AndreAndre Smith OTAlabamaSEC
17Oakland RaidersHeyward-Bey, DarriusDarrius Heyward-Bey WRMarylandACC
18Jacksonville JaguarsMonroe, EugeneEugene Monroe OTVirginiaACC
19Green Bay PackersRaji, B. J.B. J. Raji† DTBoston CollegeACC
110San Francisco 49ersCrabtree, MichaelMichael Crabtree WRTexas TechBig 12


WOW, look at all that value!

Lol
Now that is ugly

Funny you should use 2009. Worst draft in 20 years
As long as you don't show our 2009 draft, I'll be able to keep my food down.

 

[erod]

Your premise is built on a fallacy. It is always better to have the higher picks. If you can get Fred at 31, you can get him at 10, but you could also get someone much better or more picks by trading back.

Just because teams have missed on some top 10 picks, it doesn't make later better magically.

How many top 15 picks won the Super Bowl last year? The past five years?

 

[CyberB0b]

How many top 15 picks won the Super Bowl last year? The past five years?

That is a laughable metric. How many draft picks in general in the last 5 years have won a Super Bowl?

 

[jnday]

I will give the OP credit for wanting to see the good in a bad situation. I don't agree with it with it, but he is trying. At 27, the team can easily draft too late to get Gurley or Gordon, but it is too early to draft the second tier RBs that will be gone by the Cowboys second round pick. You can hope to trade up or back, but there may not be a trade partner. They can go defense with the pick and get the 4th or 5th rated DT/DE or the 3rd or 4th rated DB. I just don't see how drafting late is a perfect position to be in unless you just trying to see the sunny side of things. IMO, the earlier the pick, the better. The 27th pick will more than likely get the team a second round talent. I like 1st round talent better.

 

[erod]

That is a laughable metric. How many draft picks in general in the last 5 years have won a Super Bowl?

The point being, good teams don't draft high, and bad teams typically stay bad. Most of the very best players in the league weren't high picks.

 

[Nightman]

Lol
Now that is ugly

Funny you should use 2009. Worst draft in 20 years
As long as you don't show our 2009 draft, I'll be able to keep my food down.

Much stronger list in 2011

1 1 Carolina Panthers...... Cam Newton† QB
1 2 Denver Broncos..... Von Miller† LB
1 3 Buffalo Bills .......Marcell Dareus† DE
1 4 Cincinnati Bengals....... A. J. Green† WR
1 5 Arizona Cardinals .........Patrick Peterson† CB
1 6 Atlanta Falcons......... Julio Jones† WR
1 7 San Francisco 49ers...... Aldon Smith† LB
1 8 Tennessee Titans....... Jake Locker QB
1 9 Dallas Cowboys....... Tyron Smith† OT
1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars....... Blaine Gabbert QB
1 11 Houston Texans....... J. J. Watt† DE

 

[joshjwp]

I would prefer to pick 32ND every year.

 

[RJ_MacReady]

If getting fleeced results in getting a pro bowl caliber player like Fredrick. Ill line up to get fleeced.

Like I said...in the end, it all luckily worked out with Frederick being all that FO thought/hoped he would be and the hit on that 3rd round pick in T. Williams.

But we could have had Frederick and a better pickup than just a mid-3rd for moving them from 31st to 18th.

I'm no GM (played one in the TV Series 'General Hospital', though), but to move up 13 spots in the FIRST ROUND for the cost of a mid-3rd pick...is a helluva one-sided deal.

 

[Fletch]

At least from College Station, for sure.

Ouch. Lol

 

[DFWJC]

If you don't want the 5th pick, take it anyway and trade for about 3-5 2nd rounders...because that is how GMs value it.

These comments that more great players are after the top 15 is comical.
Let's take 230 picks and compare it to just 15.
Come on guys.

The fact is that all studies show that the odds of getting good players goes steadily down as you go through the draft.
There are exceptions, but the numbers and facts...on average...are not debatable.

 

[T-RO]

And look where that got us.

Somehow, New England continues to roll on despite pretty much sitting out the first 20 picks for two decades.

New England employs the strategy I've been a huge proponent of: Trade it Forward. They fundamentally leverage the impatience of other franchises. For instance they'll take a 250 point value pick from this year and turn it into a 360 point selection the following year. They will take 2 picks from one draft and turn it into 3 picks the following draft.

They basically act as a bank collecting interest while toying with weaker minded GM s. It's a bit like bookies and PayDay loan shops who easily toy with fools, separating them from their money.

That's how they perpetuate success while drafting low. That, plus Bill Billichek, Tom Brady and a world of cheating.

 

[visionary]

Ummmmm.....not really

I would love my team to win the SB but pick first every year

 

[visionary]

If you don't want the 5th pick, take it anyway and trade for about 3-5 2nd rounders...because that is how GMs value it.

These comments that more great players are after the top 15 is comical.
Let's take 230 picks and compare it to just 15.
Come on guys.

The fact is that all studies show that the odds of getting good players goes steadily down as you go through the draft.
There are exceptions, but the numbers and facts...on average...are not debatable.

You sir are trying to apply logic to an emitional argument

 

[visionary]

@erod you would have been better off making a "why isn't Joseph randle starter material" thread

 

[TrailBlazer]

The odds of hitting on a draft pick increase the lower your draft position. Your picking teams, would you rather have the first pick or the last? It's simple. People can rationalize and over analyze to convince themselves of something that is patently false.

 

[DFWJC]

The odds of hitting on a draft pick increase the lower your draft position. Your picking teams, would you rather have the first pick or the last? It's simple. People can rationalize and over analyze to convince themselves of something that is patently false.

By "lower" draft position, you mean lower number...as in 15 is lower than 20...right?

I got a bit confused because picking lower in draft usually means picking later.
But I'm guessing that's not what your

 

[erod]

The odds of hitting on a draft pick increase the lower your draft position. Your picking teams, would you rather have the first pick or the last? It's simple. People can rationalize and over analyze to convince themselves of something that is patently false.

Of course, but here's the rub.

Look at Tampa. They're about to take Jameis Winston. Does anybody feel confident with that pick? Do they really WANT to draft him? Or do they feel like they HAVE to draft him because if he pans out, they'll never live it down? Same for Mariotta.

Even Jadaveon Clowney has big questions about his work ethic and commitment to football. But he's such a physical freak of nature, teams feel like they HAVE to pick him. We saw it with Dontari Poe and Nick Fairley and many others. Sometimes it works out, but often it doesn't.

The nice thing about picking later when you have solid evaluators like McClay and his team is that you can just sit let the draft come to you. And when your time comes, you can get that no frills sure thing, or that player you think is a year or two from being phenomenal, and you don't have the pressure of instant dramatic impact expectations hanging over you.

A team would get destroyed for taking Travis Frederick in the top 10 picks. But look at that 2013 draft now:

11Kansas City ChiefsFisher, EricEric Fisher OTCentral MichiganMAC[9]
12Jacksonville JaguarsJoeckel, LukeLuke Joeckel OTTexas A&MSEC
13Miami DolphinsJordan, DionDion Jordan DEOregonPac-12from Oakland [R1 - 1]
14Philadelphia EaglesJohnson, LaneLane Johnson OTOklahomaBig 12
15Detroit LionsAnsah, EzekielEzekiel Ansah DEBYUInd.
16Cleveland BrownsMingo, BarkeviousBarkevious Mingo DELSUSEC
17Arizona CardinalsCooper, JonathanJonathan Cooper GNorth CarolinaACC
18St. Louis RamsAustin, TavonTavon Austin WRWest VirginiaBig 12from Buffalo [R1 - 2]
19New York JetsMilliner, DeeDee Milliner CBAlabamaSEC
110Tennessee TitansWarmack, ChanceChance Warmack GAlabamaSEC

You can make a case that Frederick is as impactful or more than every player on that list. But physically, he didn't belong. How many of those teams would gladly trade their pick that year for Frederick straight up?

That's the point I'm making here. Sure, I'd love to have the top pick every year, but there is also a strategic advantage to drafting later if the right approach is taken. Super Bowl teams are built in rounds 2-5 anyway.

 

[Risen Star]

Like wait a year then go back and retroactively draft a guy now on another team? Wut.

Anyway....

All else equal picking sooner rather than later is... ummm.... I feel silly having to say this out loud.... better.

Not when the Cowboys pick late.

 

[Risen Star]

I'll add another hot sports opinion:

The NFL draft in general has become wildly overrated in terms of winning. It's important, but teams need to be competent at bringing in personnel at a value and maximizing the return of those investments. The draft is certainly a piece of that, but it isn't the only piece.

The adage of "build through the draft" has grown into this huge monster that isn't completely accurate.

Wow.

I literally can't respond to that in a family friendly, think of the children, manner.

 

[xwalker]

I'll add another hot sports opinion:

The NFL draft in general has become wildly overrated in terms of winning. It's important, but teams need to be competent at bringing in personnel at a value and maximizing the return of those investments. The draft is certainly a piece of that, but it isn't the only piece.

The adage of "build through the draft" has grown into this huge monster that isn't completely accurate.

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying.

How else would you build a team?