If we draft a QB in 25 or 26, here are the odds they will be a success

[Bobhaze]

The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.

According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.

It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:

• Center……..92%
• OT………..59%
• Guard…….50%
• LB…………48%
• QB……….46%
• Edge R…..44%
• DT………..40%

I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.

If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.

Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.

 

[DallasEast]

Jerry Jones has toyed with turning in the card for a quarterback in the first round during day one of the draft. Or sought orchestrating a trade for one in the first round.

What should be notable are the particular quarterbacks he has superficially targeted in first rounds since Troy Aikman. An argument can be made those potential draftees would have fallen below the 46% odds for Dallas if they had been chosen.

 

[zrinkill]

As long as Jerry is making the choice it wont matter.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

No.

 

[Bobhaze]

No.

I have serious doubts this org pulls the trigger on a round one QB as well.

I posted the article link because I wanted to show everyone who thinks it’s easy to get a good QB there’s only a 46% chance of hitting on one in round one. Which is actually better than I expected. And it certainly reinforces the idea that you miss every shot you never take.

 

[DogFace]

Yeah Bob. I’ve been telling “these people” that since Romo. They don’t and won’t get how hard it is to get a good QB via the draft, let alone a Burrow or Mahomes.

 

[Nova]

Success is defined as a second contract in this breakdown.

For QB, that might be an accurate way to weed out draft busts, but probably not all encompassing of what we would define a "success".

These are the 2019 1st Round QBs in order

Kyler Murray - 2nd contract
Daniel Jones - 2nd contract
Dwayne Haskins - RIP

Ignoring Haskins, I don't know if I would call Kyler and Daniel Jones successes for where they were taken. But by this metric, they are.

 

[jazzcat22]

They have a 1st round QB they gave a 4th round for.
And some still do not like it.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Our genius GM doesn't need to use a high draft pick on a QB.

 

[Bobhaze]

Success is defined as a second contract in this breakdown.

For QB, that might be an accurate way to weed out draft busts, but probably not all encompassing of what we would define a "success".

These are the 2019 1st Round QBs in order

Kyler Murray - 2nd contract
Daniel Jones - 2nd contract
Dwayne Haskins - RIP

Ignoring Haskins, I don't know if I would call Kyler and Daniel Jones successes for where they were taken. But by this metric, they are.

Great point. Your point may also highlight how desperate almost all NFL teams are to find even decent QB play.

As you point out, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray have earned second contracts but neither has won a playoff game. In five NFL seasons, Murray’s record as a starter is 28-36-1. His cards have made the playoffs once and lost their only game. As a starter, Daniel Jones is 22-36-1 and also has made the playoffs once, where like Murray he is 0-1.

Getting a second contract is something but obviously it is not a given that means the QB has been a success.

 

[gtb1943]

They have a 1st round QB they gave a 4th round for.
And some still do not like it.

want some more cheese with your whine?

 

[gtb1943]

Great point. Your point may also highlight how desperate almost all NFL teams are to find even decent QB play.

As you point out, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray have earned second contracts but neither has won a playoff game. In five NFL seasons, Murray’s record as a starter is 28-36-1. His cards have made the playoffs once and lost their only game. As a starter, Daniel Jones is 22-36-1 and also has made the playoffs once, where like Murray he is 0-1.

Getting a second contract is something but obviously it is not a given that means the QB has been a success.

TO me success is becoming a Franchise QB or better and neither one of them to me really qualifies YET, still might but who knows?
Just getting a second contract does not mean he is a franchise or better one; just that they had nothing better to go with at the time.

 

[jazzcat22]

want some more cheese with your whine?

You have plenty of whine for all.

And not a whine, just telling the truth.

 

[DallasEast]

Our genius GM doesn't need to use a high draft pick on a QB.

'Mad' genius. Jerry Jones as general manager falls solidly into the Wile E. Coyote category than the Albert Einstein variety.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

This is a slightly flawed list because the QB successes in particular are heavily weighted to the top 10 picks. Of the playoff QBs over the last 2 years, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Goff, Stafford, Baker, Stroud were all top 10 picks.

When you’re drafting in the 20’s, you’re sifting through the Brandon Weedens and Johnny Manziels and Paxton Lynch’s and Patrick Ramsey’s and JP Losmans and Jason Campbells and Teddy Bridgewaters.

The only QB off the top of my head who was drafted after 20 in the first round and was a good player within his first few years was Lamar.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

This is a slightly flawed list because the QB successes in particular are heavily weighted to the top 10 picks. Of the playoff QBs over the last 2 years, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Goff, Stafford, Baker, Stroud were all top 10 picks.

When you’re drafting in the 20’s, you’re sifting through the Brandon Weedens and Johnny Manziels and Paxton Lynch’s and Patrick Ramsey’s and JP Losmans and Jason Campbells and Teddy Bridgewaters.

The only QB off the top of my head who was drafted after 20 in the first round and was a good player within his first few years was Lamar.

It also needs to be pointed out that those QB's in the top parts of the draft are often times going to the worst conditions. Can anyone tell me that Caleb Williams in Chicago will be the same career as Caleb Williams in Philly or Washington or Detroit? Picking a QB in the first round isn't the reason they fail, too many times teams take the QB and refuse to put what he needs around him. If Brady was picked by Cleveland instead of the Pats, I guarantee we wouldn't be talking about Tom Brady the GOAT.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.

According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.

It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:

• Center……..92%
• OT………..59%
• Guard…….50%
• LB…………48%
• QB……….46%
• Edge R…..44%
• DT………..40%

I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.

If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.

Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.

I wonder how many turn elite. Being successful is somewhat subjective.

 

[ChuckA1]

The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.

According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.

It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:

• Center……..92%
• OT………..59%
• Guard…….50%
• LB…………48%
• QB……….46%
• Edge R…..44%
• DT………..40%

I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.

If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.

Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.

A QB at 46% is almost 50-50. That seems to me a gamble worth taking after doing ample background research.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

It also needs to be pointed out that those QB's in the top parts of the draft are often times going to the worst conditions. Can anyone tell me that Caleb Williams in Chicago will be the same career as Caleb Williams in Philly or Washington or Detroit? Picking a QB in the first round isn't the reason they fail, too many times teams take the QB and refuse to put what he needs around him. If Brady was picked by Cleveland instead of the Pats, I guarantee we wouldn't be talking about Tom Brady the GOAT.

With that in mind, how much of what works in Dallas is Dak doing the heavy lifting? Maybe what appears as a good situation is less so when Dak is removed

 

[Diehardblues]

I have serious doubts this org pulls the trigger on a round one QB as well.

I posted the article link because I wanted to show everyone who thinks it’s easy to get a good QB there’s only a 46% chance of hitting on one in round one. Which is actually better than I expected. And it certainly reinforces the idea that you miss every shot you never take.

Yea. I thought it was about 50% which is enough for franchises to continue reaching.

But I’d bet the higher you pick the greater those odds are.

There was a stat a few years ago that represented 80% of SB winning QB’s were drafted in 1st round.

It’s definitely the place to start even if you strike out. Gotta keep swinging until you hit.