If we draft a QB in 25 or 26, here are the odds they will be a success

[VaqueroTD]

This is a slightly flawed list because the QB successes in particular are heavily weighted to the top 10 picks. Of the playoff QBs over the last 2 years, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Goff, Stafford, Baker, Stroud were all top 10 picks.

When you’re drafting in the 20’s, you’re sifting through the Brandon Weedens and Johnny Manziels and Paxton Lynch’s and Patrick Ramsey’s and JP Losmans and Jason Campbells and Teddy Bridgewaters.

The only QB off the top of my head who was drafted after 20 in the first round and was a good player within his first few years was Lamar.

Roethlisberger?

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Roethlisberger?

He was 13-15 iirc

 

[gtb1943]

Roethlisberger?

Remember their first SB with him; pretty much set a record for the worst stats ever. They won that in spite of him.

 

[Sheepherder]

Remember their first SB with him; pretty much set a record for the worst stats ever. They won that in spite of him.

What agitates me is that the two stooges for owners that we have don't even bother to try and get a quarterback in the later rounds. But I also feel like they have been failing to address the online, dline, the most important aspects of the team.Another words, the front office stinks.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

In recent years, Dallas has rarely kept 3 QB's on the roster. This makes it difficult to take chances in the mid to late rounds of the draft. You can't draft and coach a developmental QB prospect if you don't make room on the roster for him.

 

[CowboyFrog]

This could go in multiple threads but this seems to be a level headed discussion so I will put it here.

If Dak is adamant about a short deal so that he can sign another big contract after this one, Dallas may be screwed. Between Dak's remaining cap hit plus his new deal, his cap hit could be ginormous. Like, to the point where Dallas would struggle to field a reasonable team. Let's go extreme and say he wants a 3 year $160m deal which would be in line with what others are getting. Well, the $40m remaining from his current deal rolls on top of that. That's 3/200 of QB pay. Maybe you extend that with some void years again but you probably get the picture. A short term deal is real trouble for Dallas.

If that is where we are at, draft pick here we come.

I think they can spread the 40 out but not 100%, good post regardless and yes this would be the problem and the only solution would be to part ways (Assuming they cant munipulate this at all). To me its not even "Dak or no Dak" its the way the FO has screwed this from the get go...its a gut punch when you see how other FO's can operate.

 

[Chuck 54]

Great point. Your point may also highlight how desperate almost all NFL teams are to find even decent QB play.

As you point out, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray have earned second contracts but neither has won a playoff game. In five NFL seasons, Murray’s record as a starter is 28-36-1. His cards have made the playoffs once and lost their only game. As a starter, Daniel Jones is 22-36-1 and also has made the playoffs once, where like Murray he is 0-1.

Getting a second contract is something but obviously it is not a given that means the QB has been a success.

Around these parts, a QB isn’t a success unless he elevates the team to a Super Bowl.

 

[charron]

It's hard to draft a QB in the 1st unless you have a top 10 pick. Even then it may require a top 5 pick. When they drafted Dak they tried jumping up to get lunch but last year they seemingly didn't like Will levis enough to pull the trigger and took Mazi instead. It just has to be the right guy at the right time.

 

[Blitzen]

The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.

According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.

It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:

• Center……..92%
• OT………..59%
• Guard…….50%
• LB…………48%
• QB……….46%
• Edge R…..44%
• DT………..40%

I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.

If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.

Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.

I appreciate these efforts sir, but I think it is so much more complex when trying to see who hits and who misses. Most QB’s cannot have success in many varieties of systems. All of them require a semi-functional offensive line and most require very good ones to look competent in this league. Most require at least one elite receiver. Health, fair to good coaching, good front offices and good talent throughout the roster are required.

It’s easy to minimize and forget how bad some teams are at several of these areas-especially in early years of a QB’s career. Some guys are just meat for the grinder, and never really got a fair shake before being thrown to the wolves. Others get a high end offensive line built for the predecessor QB, and get large numbers of great surrounding playmakers in their early years. Most QB’s drafted early are going to bad teams that may have given lots of draft capital just to secure their services-they are dead men walking lots of times and they never really got much of a chance.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Around these parts, a QB isn’t a success unless he elevates the team to a Super Bowl.

All fans of all teams should have that standard. You are just endorsing failure by not doing so. Either championships are the goal, or there is no point to professional sports. Just watch fake stuff like wrestling instead.

 

[Cowboys5217]

It's hard to draft a QB in the 1st unless you have a top 10 pick. Even then it may require a top 5 pick. When they drafted Dak they tried jumping up to get lunch but last year they seemingly didn't like Will levis enough to pull the trigger and took Mazi instead. It just has to be the right guy at the right time.

They haven't drafted any first round QBs in the 21st century. You have to at least try, And never wait for the "right guy" because it is almost impossible to identify them. You go by the numbers and do what is historically proven to be the best chance - draft QBs in the first round.

FGS, this isn't hard, nor complex. It is simple math based upon easily observed history.

 

[Bobhaze]

I appreciate these efforts sir, but I think it is so much more complex when trying to see who hits and who misses. Most QB’s cannot have success in many varieties of systems. All of them require a semi-functional offensive line and most require very good ones to look competent in this league. Most require at least one elite receiver. Health, fair to good coaching, good front offices and good talent throughout the roster are required.

It’s easy to minimize and forget how bad some teams are at several of these areas-especially in early years of a QB’s career. Some guys are just meat for the grinder, and never really got a fair shake before being thrown to the wolves. Others get a high end offensive line built for the predecessor QB, and get large numbers of great surrounding playmakers in their early years. Most QB’s drafted early are going to bad teams that may have given lots of draft capital just to secure their services-they are dead men walking lots of times and they never really got much of a chance.

Well said.

One of the things I should have done at the beginning of the OP was to define a “successful QB”. In my book, I would define a mildly successful first round QB as one who within his rookie contract leads his team to the playoffs at least once. A QB who wins a playoff game within their rookie deal is very successful.

Using that standard, in the last decade, there have been 32 QBs taken in round one (excluding the 2024 draft) and 10 of them have led their teams to the playoffs at least once. Those are the “mildly successful” first round QBs. There have been 5 who have won one or more playoff games.

So that would make 15 of 32 first round QB in the last decade who have had some level of success. That’s 46.7% success rate. That’s somewhat subjective using my standard. As several have pointed out very well on this thread, many of the top 10 QB picks are going to bad teams with little on the roster or stability in the organization to build around.

 

[fivetwos]

Tough to draft a QB in the first round when you already have a starter…and that pick is consistently your big splash move of the entire off-season and you’re relying on that player to fill a gaping hole in the 22.

Remember, according to Jerry, we are always close. One more first rounder ought to put them over the top!

 

[charron]

They haven't drafted any first round QBs in the 21st century. You have to at least try, And never wait for the "right guy" because it is almost impossible to identify them. You go by the numbers and do what is historically proven to be the best chance - draft QBs in the first round.

FGS, this isn't hard, nor complex. It is simple math based upon easily observed history.

One reason why 50% of 1st round QB's fail is cause teams just take a guy and they don't wait for the right QB. That would have been the lynch pick instead of Dak and look how that turned out. Has to be the right guy that fits with the right oc or the offense won't reach it's potential. Just look at San fran. They took 1 guy with the 1st pick and 1 guy with the last pick in the draft who got their offense better. Now lance is trying to beat out backup.

 

[McKDaddy]

When the cupboard is bare though, 100% of good organizations find a way to get toward the top of the draft board and take a shot.

 

[McKDaddy]

Around these parts, a QB isn’t a success unless he elevates the team to a Super Bowl.

I personally disagree with this & feel a lot of others do as well. I would consider a QB a success if they have some ability to help the team win and not being one of the primary reasons they fail. In other words, someone I actually can believe we have a chance with.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Around these parts, a QB isn’t a success unless he elevates the team to a Super Bowl.

by himself. taking sole responsibility for success and failure.

 

[kskboys]

They have a 1st round QB they gave a 4th round for.
And some still do not like it.

Why are you trying to turn this into yet another Dak thread? I really don't understand.

 

[kskboys]

This is a slightly flawed list because the QB successes in particular are heavily weighted to the top 10 picks. Of the playoff QBs over the last 2 years, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Goff, Stafford, Baker, Stroud were all top 10 picks.

When you’re drafting in the 20’s, you’re sifting through the Brandon Weedens and Johnny Manziels and Paxton Lynch’s and Patrick Ramsey’s and JP Losmans and Jason Campbells and Teddy Bridgewaters.

The only QB off the top of my head who was drafted after 20 in the first round and was a good player within his first few years was Lamar.

Purdy, Dak, Carr, Wilson, Hurts. Garropolo wasn't bad. Brady, Brees, Rothlisberger(11), Romo, Schaub, Flacco(18)

There's always a few, but I agree w/ what you're saying in principle. Further down in the draft you go, the harder it gets.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Purdy, Dak, Carr, Wilson, Hurts. Garropolo wasn't bad. Brady, Brees, Rothlisberger(11), Romo, Schaub, Flacco(18)

There's always a few, but I agree w/ what you're saying in principle. Further down in the draft you go, the harder it gets.

It was specific to the pick area that he was talking about in the mid 20’s; not many guys out of there