If we draft a QB in 25 or 26, here are the odds they will be a success

[doomsday9084]

This could go in multiple threads but this seems to be a level headed discussion so I will put it here.

If Dak is adamant about a short deal so that he can sign another big contract after this one, Dallas may be screwed. Between Dak's remaining cap hit plus his new deal, his cap hit could be ginormous. Like, to the point where Dallas would struggle to field a reasonable team. Let's go extreme and say he wants a 3 year $160m deal which would be in line with what others are getting. Well, the $40m remaining from his current deal rolls on top of that. That's 3/200 of QB pay. Maybe you extend that with some void years again but you probably get the picture. A short term deal is real trouble for Dallas.

If that is where we are at, draft pick here we come.

 

[nhcowboysfan]

It also needs to be pointed out that those QB's in the top parts of the draft are often times going to the worst conditions. Can anyone tell me that Caleb Williams in Chicago will be the same career as Caleb Williams in Philly or Washington or Detroit? Picking a QB in the first round isn't the reason they fail, too many times teams take the QB and refuse to put what he needs around him. If Brady was picked by Cleveland instead of the Pats, I guarantee we wouldn't be talking about Tom Brady the GOAT.

This is very true. Consider that as good as Peyton was with the Colts he only won 1 SB with them despite carrying the team to the playoffs for more than a decade. That's because once he got to the playoffs, his team couldn't get past the better overall teams like the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers - all three of which had superior defenses. Had Peyton been on the Patriots and Brady on the Colts, it's likely that Manning would be regarded as the GOAT.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

With that in mind, how much of what works in Dallas is Dak doing the heavy lifting? Maybe what appears as a good situation is less so when Dak is removed

I'd say almost nothing he is doing is so special that it can't be replaced. How? Because he goes out, and the team did not miss a beat with Cooper Rush under center. Even the one game they lost to Philly in that run was one that no honest person would claim that Dak would have won that. The Cowboys as they are currently constructed can get Dak's level of play without breaking the bank and winning regular season games. If anything the year he broke his ankle was more of a year where Dak's availability was more valuable for the team because the offense and defense weren't where it needed to be.

 

[gtb1943]

As long as dak is here, jerry wont draft a QB in round 1, much less the top 10.
The one time he had a shot to do that in 2016, they had spot 4 and picked a RB lol.
You cant trust the "experts" who rate the draft picks ,or the fact the guy had good college career.

Trey lance is a good example of a guy who should not have been a round 1 pick, but he was picked very high in Rd 1.
Later they realize oops we didnt look close enough at this guy, and so they had to unload him.
Very wisely they called jerry, and caught him alone lol . Now dallas has him.

Most qb's go to teams with bad plan, coaches, OC, and they dont design a offense for him , they try to force him
into a offense they think is good.

Most QB's are just bus drivers of varying quality, and it is up to the coaches to utilize them in the best way possible,
and that rarely happens.

About dallas trying to draft a good one, if you dont swing your not going to hit anything. You have to take chances.
also get good at evaluating college prospects.

so instead of Zeke we end up with Paxton Lynch instead as Goff and Wentz went one and two.