The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.
According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article:
https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.
It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?
Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:
- Center……..92%
- OT………..59%
- Guard…….50%
- LB…………48%
- QB……….46%
- Edge R…..44%
- DT………..40%
I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.
If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.
Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.
